In play games to watch 4-6-18
Toronto -7.5
Boston -8
Washington -10.5
Detroit -7
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In play games to watch 4-6-18
Toronto -7.5
Boston -8
Washington -10.5
Detroit -7
So here is a perfect example of taking full advantage of In Play NBA wagering .
Only game so far to qualify is Hawks at Wizards
Wizards pre tip are 10.5 point favorites
At the 2:22 mark of the second quarter down 11 points for 10 seconds Approx you could have gotten Wizards +1.5 at -110
Its half time now and Wizards have closed the gap down to 4 points . Guess we will see how it ends but this is how its done taking favorites and turning them into dogs at a square price in Play .
ScoopedQuote:
Originally Posted by snake_in_the_ass
Brewers scored 0 runs.Quote:
Originally Posted by snake_in_the_ass
Friday action:
Padres +248
Braves +137
My main online book has Reed +130 to win and Rory +170 to win. My question is would it be a good bet to just max bet both? Is it very likely that someone comes from over 5 back to overtake both of them?
How bad is Patrick Reed? He's a better than even money bet going into Sunday with a five stroke lead. I feel like a fish but I just unloaded the clip on him. I know guys have a reputation for peeing down their leg on sunday in majors but to be an underdog to the field up five??? I was expecting to look him up and find out he had never won on tour but he has five wins.
think its down to those 2, rahm, rickie...and maybe very outside shot for stenson...Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22
haven't checked the weather so don't know what the conditions are gonna be like, but if it's soft like it is today it's gonna be reed/rory...they have to shoot par while the other guys have to shoot 67 or better to win...I don't see reed AND rory shooting par (or worse) in soft conditions...that course loses a lotta bite if you can throw darts...
EDIT: don't know if it's worth the risk for the times rahm/rickie go out and fire a 63/64 against these guys' 70s...
he's got a pretty damn good match play record and if rahm/rickie cant charge early it's gonna end up as match play with reed with a 3 shot lead...I like his shot if that's the case...Quote:
Originally Posted by Brittney Griner's Clit
it will be his first time in contention in a major in the final round, but he's got a ton of ryder cup experience which should benefit him...
If you want to try to hedge this maybe just take Reed and the over on whatever score they post for him. Where I bet now they don't have over/under scores but I'm guessing the bookies would put that at like 73.5 for Reed since they think he's an underdog.
Looking like Miami is just going to tank rest of the season (doesn't even really need to tank cause playing good teams) and hopefully play Boston. Kinda lame how down the stretch they managed to lose to Brooklyn and New York, but if it means they get to play Boston can't really blame them.
Still gonna win a small amount on my season props, but that was a pretty high juice bet so pretty big swing losing it.
Lame.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22
horrible idea , essentially risking 2 units to win (at most) 0.7 units , when its far from a lock , anything can happen on sunday at the masters .... greg norman anyone ?
I got swept by a guy who's ankle looked like fucking this!!! jesus fucking Christ...I cant believe he walked 4 rounds on that course and finished in the top 10...might be more amazing than reed winning the damn thing and Jordan making that charge...
I'll never bet against this guy again.
What a warrior
First traditional sports bet in a while.
Took OKC -180 over the Heat. They have every motivation to win and the Heat have every motivation to lose so they potentially drop to the 7th seed.
One baseball pick today:
Atlanta (Teheran) at Washington (Scherzer) - Under 7.5 -105
NBA - [707] Oklahoma City Thunder -3-110
Game start 04/09/2018 04:35 PM
MLB - [954] Philadelphia Phillies -130 ( ACTION )
Game start 04/09/2018 04:05 PM
MLB - [967] TOTAL o8.5 +100 (Toronto Blue Jays vrs Baltimore Orioles) ( J Happ - L / D Bundy - R )
Game start 04/09/2018 04:05 PM
It is particularly amusing that if you look at the +/- the 2 guys with the worst (Winslow, Wade) played the most minutes in the 2nd half. Spoelstra basically found out who was playing like shit and made sure to play them the most minutes in the 2nd half.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
think I bought the top of the market on OKC live...got them at +2 to hedge some of my MIA exposure...that game was incredible...absolute bedshit in the 4th...Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaardIt is particularly amusing that if you look at the +/- the 2 guys with the worst (Winslow, Wade) played the most minutes in the 2nd half. Spoelstra basically found out who was playing like shit and made sure to play them the most minutes in the 2nd half.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
just hoping the Toronto line will be reasonable...
Yeah. My bet today just made me break even when they inevitably only win 43, so it was basically a hedge.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenisthink I bought the top of the market on OKC live...got them at +2 to hedge some of my MIA exposure...that game was incredible...absolute bedshit in the 4th...Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
just hoping the Toronto line will be reasonable...
As far as the highlighted goes, They definitely don't want the 8th seed. I don't know how the tiebreakers work out, but if Washington wins tomorrow they might be in a spot where they need to win to avoid the 8th seed. Will definitely need to research this further before I decide what to do with Toronto game.
gotta imagine TOR sits their starters...just looked at their box score from tonight and derozen and lowry played less than 30 tonight...would think that casey just gets them a full break on Wednesday...that would be pretty fucking sweet because in that scenario I think we could get TOR at + money...Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaardYeah. My bet today just made me break even when they inevitably only win 43, so it was basically a hedge.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
As far as the highlighted goes, They definitely don't want the 8th seed. I don't know how the tiebreakers work out, but if Washington wins tomorrow they might be in a spot where they need to win to avoid the 8th seed. Will definitely need to research this further before I decide what to do with Toronto game.
Easy win in today's under.
2-0 after the 1st.
2-0 final.
I knew Scherzer would crush the Braves.
Gained +0.952 units.
7-2. +4.649 units in this young season.
Will my early season NBA talents transfer to MLB early season?
Dogs for Tuesday:
Braves +198
Reds +190
Tigers +178
Milwaukee (Suter) at St. Louis (C. Martinez) - under 7.5 +105
Anyone who doesn't think I run bad, look at how I lost this tonight.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
2-1 in the bottom of the 9th, 3-2 in the bottom of the 10th, 3-3 in the bottom of 11th.
Lose 5-3 to a 2-run walk off HR.
:gay3
Poor baby, Druff.
I sat in 38 degree weather for 3 hours watching the Red Sox hammer the Yankees 14-1.
The fucking beer vendor refused to ever look my way.
Judge is still god. Another bomb. Not only at bat but in the field.
Cora has brought the Astros aggressive batting approach to Boston and replaced the take every pitch (and drive up a starter’s pitch count) until you are facing 1-2, 2-2.
Not enough for me to forgive the Sawks but 9-1 is putting pressure on my happiness
I haven’t even looked at any MLB lines. Have the Indians run totals been like 5.5? They gave up 13 runs in one game and only 33 through 11 while struggling to score 2 themselves. I don’t think a single starter is hitting .200, yet they’re in first because everyone has sucked so far. I would guess they’ve had to be under 9 of 11 thus far. The weather is warming up though in a few days.
:failQuote:
Originally Posted by snake_in_the_ass
Honestly, I haven't found many dogs I've liked this year.
It's always tempting to fire on them, but the ones with value tend to be the unheralded good pitcher on the bad team, or alternatively the unheralded good pitcher on an okay team facing a great team and another very good pitcher.
But the ones I've been seeing so far really have the appearance of having little chance to win.
I did want to fire on Lucchesi of the Padres, because he's legit good, but the Colorado factor scared me. Would have won.
Still pissed about the downright robbery on that under.
so TOR is +170 against MIA tonight...
MIA/WSH are tied right now for 7th with MIA having the tiebreaker (I believe)...WSH is playing ORL tonight which you would think would be a walkover win...
the question is whether or not to hedge the MIA game...I got off around 20% of my bet live against OKC and MIA will make or break my profitability...after an 82 game slog i'd like to at least be able to go out to dinner...
seems just like a spot not to hedge especially if theres no lowry, derozen, valenchunis...
Small dog to start the day:
Kansas City (Duffy) +120 vs. Seattle (Paxton)
Game starts 11:15am PDT
Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
Good luck with that. What are you thinking of hedging? A win total? Those bottom 3 spots in East are a tangled mess. All 3 would prefer to land 7th, but none of them know best way to end 7th, plus Milwaukee might need to win to retain draft pick. Not sure about that, but seemed to read something like that the other day, but they’re playing a team that also needs the win in Philly as Cleveland has tiebreaker. True clusterfuck. Like it wouldn’t shock me to see Spoelstra was watching the scoreboard and coaching accordingly if there’s any doubt about the Bucks game. It’s why the NBA moved all the start times to 8 for those games.
McCullers u 7.5k
yeah I have MIA at O 43.5 for the year...its not the amount of money, but like I said I've slogged through 82 fucking games of this year and would like to at least get a steak outta the whole thing...Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRQuote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
Good luck with that. What are you thinking of hedging? A win total? Those bottom 3 spots in East are a tangled mess. All 3 would prefer to land 7th, but none of them know best way to end 7th, plus Milwaukee might need to win to retain draft pick. Not sure about that, but seemed to read something like that the other day, but they’re playing a team that also needs the win in Philly as Cleveland has tiebreaker. True clusterfuck. Like it wouldn’t shock me to see Spoelstra was watching the scoreboard and coaching accordingly if there’s any doubt about the Bucks game. It’s why the NBA moved all the start times to 8 for those games.
Goddamn it, thanks for point that out BCR...only thought it was MIA/WSH for 7th, didn't realize MLW was in the mix too...
already put another 20% hedge on it...probably will try to do some live hedging as well...
think you are totally right about spoelstra pulling the strings like a puppet master...they were beating OKC and then absolutely bedshit in the 4th to get hammered...don't think that was an accident...
Glad to see these back.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
In 2016 Daly ran off something sick like 14 consecutive wins on his K props.
On wizards -5.5 for 2 units today.
I looked at the permutation and it is pretty much +EV for every team to lose. Basically, any team that wins will jump into 6th if the other 2 teams lose. I haven't checked my book yet, but according to ESPN both the Heat and Wizards are pretty big favorites. I don't get that at all. The Wizards I can kind of see, just because the Magic are so bad it will be hard to play bad enough to lose, but I don't see any reason why the Heat would be favored against Toronto, even backups, who have no motivation to play poorly and are pretty good.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenisyeah I have MIA at O 43.5 for the year...its not the amount of money, but like I said I've slogged through 82 fucking games of this year and would like to at least get a steak outta the whole thing...Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Goddamn it, thanks for point that out BCR...only thought it was MIA/WSH for 7th, didn't realize MLW was in the mix too...
already put another 20% hedge on it...probably will try to do some live hedging as well...
think you are totally right about spoelstra pulling the strings like a puppet master...they were beating OKC and then absolutely bedshit in the 4th to get hammered...don't think that was an accident...
I think betting both the Heat and Bucks to lose would be +EV bet. Especially the Heat, who are favored and you are getting odds.
Washington is a complete wildcard because the Magic are so bad and are tanking.
So my KC pick lost, and the worst thing was the fact that I woke up from a nap confused, believing I had the Seattle side, and was thrilled to see they won.
Oops.
Here are 3 more picks:
NY (Wheeler) at Miami (Jar. Garcia) - Under 8.5 -105
Miami +125
Cincinnati (L. Castillo) at Philadelphia (Pivetta) - Under 7.5 -105
cool thanks for the insight...seeing TOR at +170 now...might fire a little more off pregame and try to get the rest off during the game, hoping MIA gets out to a lead and I can get +200 or better...Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaardI looked at the permutation and it is pretty much +EV for every team to lose. Basically, any team that wins will jump into 6th if the other 2 teams lose. I haven't checked my book yet, but according to ESPN both the Heat and Wizards are pretty big favorites. I don't get that at all. The Wizards I can kind of see, just because the Magic are so bad it will be hard to play bad enough to lose, but I don't see any reason why the Heat would be favored against Toronto, even backups, who have no motivation to play poorly and are pretty good.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
will be very impressed if WSH can find a way to lose to ORL...
Yeah I'm happy to see them back too. Last year many books didn't even offer them.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffGlad to see these back.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
In 2016 Daly ran off something sick like 14 consecutive wins on his K props.