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Thru Amen Corner and hes leading the fucking tournamentQuote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
no fucking kidding...pass some of that shit...Quote:
Originally Posted by Sheesfaced
still very early...see what happens after he walks up and down the mountains there...
Gonna need Larry Mize to get in the fucking clubhouse +6 or better
I'm stunned...drk posted a screen shot from the moment it happened...I seriously don't get how the hell he is -4 after looking at that pic...Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22Thru Amen Corner and hes leading the fucking tournamentQuote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
Gonna need Larry Mize to get in the fucking clubhouse +6 or better
when you have to pop your fucking ankle back into place it's a bit of an injury and these guys aren't exactly hockey players...
long way to go...those huge Sergio numbers are out there...
If you don't care about aesthetics being a Samoan like Feenow is the perfect race. I mean you are obviously strong as an ox... but then you are also Asian so you are smart.
No one should have expected him not to play though. He popped the ankle back in and continued to play the par 3 contest yesterday that no one takes seriously. (It's within the rules to have your kids or grandkids play shots on your behalf in the par 3 contest)
Yeah needless to say I'm surprised about Finau.
Think we in OK shape here with Mize. Hopefully Woos sucks again tomorrow.
It really doesn't even make sense.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenisI'm stunned...drk posted a screen shot from the moment it happened...I seriously don't get how the hell he is -4 after looking at that pic...Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22
when you have to pop your fucking ankle back into place it's a bit of an injury and these guys aren't exactly hockey players...
long way to go...those huge Sergio numbers are out there...
I assumed the bet was only round 1. Damnit. We are in pretty good shape but I obviously wish it was overQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
With Speith at -7 there ain't a chance in hell Woos can make the cut. It's all or nothing tomorrow.
4000/205,000 ain't bad
Was anyone watching that White Sox game?
After all the shit luck I had with getting fucked in the NBA this season, it was nice to get a lucky MLB win.
My pick was on the better of two horrible pitchers (Zimmerman over Shields), mainly based upon the fact that Zimmerman has shown glimpses in the spring and the first game of looking like his former self. (He still gave up 4 runs in 6 innings in his first game, but overall didn't look bad.) It was also based upon the fact that Shields is awwwwwful and should be out of baseball, or at least in the back end of a rotation of an NL team in a pitchers park.
Miggy Cabrera was also injured running through a single earlier in the game.
Well, Shields turned in an okay performance, and Zimmerman was awful. Sox up 7-3 in the 8th, and I wrote it off, since the Tigers didn't exactly have a blistering offense to where you can hope for 4 runs in 2 innings.
Then a glimmer of hope... three straight singles, and Tigers have bases loaded with nobody out. A sac fly and double play finish it off for the inning, and they go to the bottom of the 8th down 7-4. I'm still not at all optimistic.
Top 9, Soria pitching but looking quite wild on a cooooooooooold night in Chicago. But there's two out and a man on first, and Niko Goodrum barely hits a ball over the outfield wall line, and it's 7-6.
Castellanos then singled, bringing up Victor Martinez. Martinez hit a hooking fly to left, and the ball was badly misplayed. Should have been another single, but it rolled to the wall, and game was tied. McCann then grounded out to end the inning.
Top 10, Tigers get runners on 1st and 2nd with no out, and two end up scoring . 9-7 now!
Then just to bring some final drama in bottom 10th, Shane Greene, who isn't used to closing, is wild, and walks a batter and hits another with two out. Winning run at the plate, and a double would tie it. Moncada whiffed, and that's the ballgame.
To review: Won in extras after Tigers down 4 in the 8th and down 3 in the 9th. Tying run in 9th scored only thanks to a misplay.
:yes
Now I need the scoring in the Reds/Pirates game to stay low (threatening in the 5th).
With the Masters in full swing, this meme seems aproposQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Two nailbiters today, but the record is the same as if they were blowout wins.
Cincy/Pitt under 8 squeaks by in a 5-2 game (and it was 5-1 after 5 innings), and Detroit comes back from 3 down with 2 out and a runner on first in the 9th, to win 9-7 in extras.
Detroit +118: +1.18 units
Cincy/Pitt under 8 -115: +0.870 units
Total for day: 2-0, +2.050 units.
MLB Season total: 6-1, +4.697 units
As jsearles wants to see my NBA record so badly because he knows I did badly at the end, here it is:
Record after March 9 was 173-147-6.
Here's what happened since then:
3/10:
Charlotte under 218 - LOST
3/11:
Chicago under 213 - LOST
Sac under 214 - LOST
3/13:
Knicks +1 - LOST
3/14:
Milwaukee -10.5 - LOST
Golden State Under 223.5 - WON
3/16:
Sacramento +9 - WON
3/17:
Brooklyn -4 - WON
Denver -6.5 - LOST
Cleveland -7 - LOST
Utah under 198 - LOST
3/18:
Clippers under 218 - LOST
3/19:
San Antonio over 201 - LOST
3/23:
Cleveland under 228 - WON
Utah under 193.5 - LOST
Miami over 217.5 - LOST
Golden State under 220.5 - WON
4/3
Cleveland under 222 - WON
Record from 3/10-4/3: 6-12
Overall NBA record to date: 179-159-6 (52.96%)
So that's a little above the 52.38% mark you need to have a profitable season, but not by much.
The season was a tale of two parts:
Through December 30: 98-62-2
December 31-April 3: 81-97-4
While this "break" is arbitrary (I purposely selected my peak and then started the second portion at my first real losing streak), it's clear that I was doing something very right in November and December, but stuck too long with an approach which wasn't cutting it in the middle and later portions of the season.
I did have some bad luck in the second portion of the season, getting a lot of unders ruined by OT (more than expectation), and taking a number of bad beats on spread games.
Also notable was HOW I was winning. In November and December, it was common for my picks to win by 20+ points (especially the unders). In 2018, my wins tended to be close. This is important because the blowout wins tend to indicate an excellent pick, while the close wins are more a function of luck.
I may or may not pick the playoffs. I'm mostly done for the regular season, unless something jumps out at me.
Next year I will take a different approach in January-April, and perhaps just shut it down if I start to slump, as it seems I'm just better at early season.
2nd cousins with Jabari parker...jesus that's some fucking genetics in that bloodline...Quote:
Originally Posted by Brittney Griner's Clit
Brewers scored 0 runs.Quote:
Originally Posted by snake_in_the_ass
Friday action:
Padres +248
Braves +137
Getting a little uncomfortable here.... get Woos out there ASAP
finau +2 thru 6 today...that's more like it...
I have Miami O44 wins. They are at 43. I am kinda worried they are going to tank the last few games so they can get the 7th seed and play the Celtics. But they are playing the knicks today so hopefully even if they are playing to lose they will win anyways.
have them at 43.5...knicks are in full shit the bed mode...gonna be tough as hell for them to lose that one...Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
and you were worried about minny too...that one already covered...
Yeah. Got lucky with the injuries to the T wolves. But they are a real thin team and the starters play too many minutes so not really luck.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenishave them at 43.5...knicks are in full shit the bed mode...gonna be tough as hell for them to lose that one...Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
and you were worried about minny too...that one already covered...
If Miami at least pushes I will do pretty well on my season bets overall.
Maybe the opium isn't working as well todayQuote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
Mize is leaking oil. Only Par on the front was on the two par 5s.......Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyMaybe the opium isn't working as well todayQuote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
yup...his first round wont be remembered, but that's one of the greatest rounds in the history of golf...Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyMaybe the opium isn't working as well todayQuote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
Need him to get around amen corner at +1Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22Mize is leaking oil. Only Par on the front was on the two par 5s.......Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
This was always going to be a war of attrition. Technically He was off to a better start that Woos.... let's see if Woos has the same issues
Fuck - we are Cooked.
Only 10 guys are even or better on the day and one of them is a 60 year old who was +7 yesterday.
Certainly not looking good.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Fat chops with a double bogey on 9 to give us a sweat at least
That double bogey helps. May have at least a sweat.
lotta big numbers to be had around this course especially when you aren't a long hitter...being 3 down with 9 to go is nothing...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Druff: There is only one way to bet the NBA and make money but it takes major discipline and good timing.
First thing you do is look at scheduled games for the day and eliminate all games that do not include a home favorite at -5 or more.
Then you wait
As soon as a home favorite of -5 or more at any point in the game before the 8:00 mark of the 4th quarter finds themselves down by 10 or more points you unload on the home favorite in game to win the match . This does not happen often but it does happen enough during each week to make it interesting. You will find yourself getting some big numbers on the + side . In game wagering has changed the NBA forever as far as betting goes. On the flip side of this if you follow in game you can always lay big numbers with the winning team at the end of games . Example teams that are up 15 with 3:00 left in the game will get an in game number like -16.5 they cover a majority of these games .
The Home favorite if you have the stomach for it sometimes gets down 20 points early and comes back to win easily . I've seen plus numbers in the 600-700 range in the 2nd quarter of games . Why fight the locked in spreads?
Birdie on 10 for the dagger. Need to go 4 over on final 8 to push
We need a +2 around amen corner out of this slopopotumus to have a shot.Quote:
Originally Posted by unlearn
Can't believe we in this bad a shape, but that's gambling
He went +4 on Amen Corner yesterday so I'm not throwing in the towel just yet. Where is that guy from NWP who got arrested for jumping in the bunker in front of Phil like 10 years ago when you need him? BenHogan?
Woos is just too good. Too bad we have no shot.
GG. NH. easy Mark
Lol. In game wagering is worse than props as far as how fast the books shut you down if you are beating it. It is worse than props because they will literally just cancel your winning bets and honor your losing ones. In wage gaming is completely -EV because of this. I do it anyways but I have no illusions.Quote:
Originally Posted by GookieheimowitzQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Druff: There is only one way to bet the NBA and make money but it takes major discipline and good timing.
First thing you do is look at scheduled games for the day and eliminate all games that do not include a home favorite at -5 or more.
Then you wait
As soon as a home favorite of -5 or more at any point in the game before the 8:00 mark of the 4th quarter finds themselves down by 10 or more points you unload on the home favorite in game to win the match . This does not happen often but it does happen enough during each week to make it interesting. You will find yourself getting some big numbers on the + side . In game wagering has changed the NBA forever as far as betting goes. On the flip side of this if you follow in game you can always lay big numbers with the winning team at the end of games . Example teams that are up 15 with 3:00 left in the game will get an in game number like -16.5 they cover a majority of these games .
The Home favorite if you have the stomach for it sometimes gets down 20 points early and comes back to win easily . I've seen plus numbers in the 600-700 range in the 2nd quarter of games . Why fight the locked in spreads?
Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaardLol. In game wagering is worse than props as far as how fast the books shut you down if you are beating it. It is worse than props because they will literally just cancel your winning bets and honor your losing ones. In wage gaming is completely -EV because of this. I do it anyways but I have no illusions.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gookieheimowitz
I've never had a problem in game wagering ? I'm sure the online books probably cancel tickets and refuse wagers . Live doing this you will never have a problem. I do believe there are some wagering limits live but the only problem I have ever encountered doing this live is the teller being to slow to get the number I want . In game wagering provides a ton of opportunities . If you follow the game flow totals become so clear and vulnerable . Teams that come out and combine for 70 points in the first quarter boost the total 20 points of original number and then suddenly they cant hit a shot and the number comes back to reality . These spots come up a lot if you watch for them .
http://www.nbaminer.com/margins-comebacks/
Here are some stats . I won't go through to see how many applied to -5 point favorites at home but as you can see a 10 point comeback is common and even 15 point comebacks are not rare . As I stated though 20+ are rare but the odds you get reflect that you do not have to win many to have a positive roi% for this type of wager. Only sticking to Home favorites who fall behind keeps your options to a small but profitable size .
Cin/Pit under yesterday was so nice, we'll do it twice.
Cincy (L. Castillo) at Pittsburgh (T. Williams) under 7.5 +105
Game at 4:05pm PDT
Sorry to anyone who tailed me on that quagmire. If bet it again tomorrow if they let me.
No doubt was a good bet. Right process wrong result. And fuck the Woose.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
I don't think Lebron is gonna put over the sixers on ESPN quite yet. And if he does it will be last second. You can get 4.5 at most places.