I think Mint is onto something.
Lakers prob gonna crush bad teams they play for rest of the season.
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I think Mint is onto something.
Lakers prob gonna crush bad teams they play for rest of the season.
Lakers are unusually strong, getting that Ball father out of the country is the best move possible for that team. People like that ruin teams.
no value picks for me today. I didn't post them, but 3 and 1 yesterday. NHL home Grand Salami is a lock today. Line hasn't posted, I am sure it will be -200 though. edit: it posted at -290. yes its a lock, but no value OBV in price.
4 and 0 Sawx playing 1 and 3 cardinals today Sanlimar, what say you?
Looks like Sawks have two games today and are split squad.Quote:
Originally Posted by Charham
It’s not offered on any of my books.
I’ll poke around for something else.
Edit
Miami Marlins M Marlins vs Washington Nationals W Nationals 02/27/18 13:05 EST Washington Nationals -185
Your 2018 National League Champion Washington Nationals play the lowly Marlins
Nationals regulars haven’t played much and will take their time seriously - I hope.
You usually don’t see a line lower than -180 in spring training. This would be -220 reg season.
SS Trea Turner
C Matt Wieters
RF Bryce Harper
3B Anthony Rendon
1B Matt Adams
DH Miguel Montero
2B Howie Kendrick
LF Brian Goodwin
CF Michael A. Taylor
1B Chris Dominguez
LHP Gio Gonzalez
If you went into a Vegas sportsbook the max is $500 for exhibition. I get $300 max online. I’m in for $185.
While I obv like the bet it’s also an educational expense. So take the bet fwiw. There will be far better spots.
I remember every at bat when I have action. I will be better prepared on opening day.
I sent my kid and his girlfriend down to Naples for spring training. One of his ex team mates works for the Red Sox and is in Sarasota.
I’ll see if I get a good scoop in the next week
love this shit san...only true degens bet on grapefruit/cactus league shit...BRAVO SIR!
Thx GCBP, haven’t lost yet. Thank god for ties in exhibition
Can’t wait for Druff. This is gonna slip.
Familiar hate bet from me. Cleveland 0-12 ATS double digit spread. <—Not my only reason.
The new look Cavs started strong beginning with Celtics and have regressed
Brooklyn Nets vs Cleveland Cavaliers 02/27/18 19:05 EST Brooklyn Nets +10.5 (-110)
I think there is value Nets first qtr & half but I kinda want to enjoy this without too much tilt.
Two picks for right now, on same game:
Miami +0 (-1 ok)
Miami under 205
Starts 435 pt
Regarding Brooklyn, I've been burned sooooooooo many times on value picks on them.
This would normally be one of them, and they've actually been holding close most games lately (and even won yesterday against the awful Bulls).
But I'm skipping it because they're B2B and on the road, and I've just been stung too many times.
Clippers under 229.5
No Gallinari, and possibly no Milsap
I think I need to commune with my inner gamble.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Nets bink 1st qtr & half
Good call so far on the Brooklyn bet.
Gotta admit I strongly considered it.
You're also correct that the better value seems to be 1H in these type of bets. Might start doing this in similar games involving the Warriors, who always seem to coast in 1H and turn it on 2H.
Here, however, I could see the Cavs being unable to fully turn it on (since they aren't very good anymore), and struggling out to a 2 point win.
So you're probably good. Line right now is Cavs -6.5, which I think still favors them too much.
Great call on my part regarding the Miami under, but not such a great call on Miami +0. Still time, though.
Yup value on the Brooklyn bet. The cavs have been so high low I stayed away. Took Miami under and passed on the side.the side Seems 50 /50 to me. Gl guys. Added the clippers under.
Miami came back to be within 3 at halftime. Liking it a lot better now, though I agree still 50/50ish.Quote:
Originally Posted by Charham
93 points at halftime, which is obviously very good, but a little disappointing to see 52 points in 2Q after 1Q was 41. Anyway now they need 113 to beat us, so that's pretty good considering these two teams.
LOL that Brooklyn 2H went exactly as I thought, though the Cavs ultimately winning by 6 was slightly more than I expected. But Cavs were down by 2 with 1:19 left, so yeah, it was pretty much another last minute win against a crap team.
Miami sucks. They just coughed up 8 straight points to go down by 10 in the 4th, and that one's very likely over.
Under actually now a sweat.
Talk about a sweat. Congrats.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Wow both Miami picks came down to one shot --
A 3-point buzzer beater attempt by Reddick, wide open, with Miami up 102-101.
If it hits, I go 0-2. If it misses, I go 2-0.
It missed.
:yes
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Anyone have any thoughts on baseball totals for the year?
If I could find the guy who got to my local and bet the Rays Under 77.5 up to -200 I'd shake his hand. Can't call anything in MLB a lock it seems but I have to think that's a very good bet.
I don't know what the Tigers under is, but bet it. I'll be happy to be wrong.
Druff’s a little quiet after that last flurry of buckets
He wondering, “how would sanlmar have played this game”. But he’s too shy to ask
Los Angeles Clippers 81 vs Denver Nuggets 88 02/27/18 22:40 EST Under 229 (-110)
Clippers 81 vs Nuggets 88 02/27/18 22:40 EST Over 219.5 (-115)
Middle & a bit gutless. Game total had been very very steady live
About 67 give or take.Quote:
Originally Posted by hongkonger
It's really really hard to not win 65 games in a year.
It was seriously 219.5 when it was 88-81?Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
I would have totally fired that, as well.
Honestly I put it at about 50-50 at that point whether it was going to cover the 229.5.
Take the Over with the Cardinals this year & its not because of their line up.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
At about 85 in most shops. They had 83 last year.Quote:
Originally Posted by herbertstempleTake the Over with the Cardinals this year & its not because of their line up.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Gut feeling? Expecting pitching to be bettter?
No it wasn’t. It was considerably earlierQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffIt was seriously 219.5 when it was 88-81?Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
I would have totally fired that, as well.
Honestly I put it at about 50-50 at that point whether it was going to cover the 229.5.
I have a stupid book that pulls the current score when you look (copy/paste) pending bets.
Clippers Babon M. really changed the game. I was convinced it was going under.
Swear at one point you coulda had Clippers 10:1
That game got weird as soon as that big goon set foot on the court
Just thoughts, probably not too helpful.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
I've made good money the last 4 years betting Royals overs. They've defied Pecota and books every season. This team had an it factor that sabermetrics couldn't account for. Not this year though. I'm not betting. Pecota has them at 66.5, my book has 71. I'd lean under 71 but not enough to fire small and root for them to lose all summer.
Charlotte +7.5
Charlotte vs Boston over 209.5
Golden State vs Washington Over 226
NEW ORLEANS PELICANS MONEYLINE!! (Or take the points pussy)
New Orleans vs San Antonio over 219
ok a lot of value statistically on mavs +5.5, clippers +8 and wizards +9, and even tanking Memphis -2. Each team should be able to hang, getting a lot of points (besides Memphis) and all at home. clippers will be mad, but Harden playing. maverics worry me, and GS of course could be bombs away. I think wizards +9 seems the strongest. But hey, thats why you bet value, just be consistent. Obviously the value seems to be against heavy favorites. The blow out risk is the problem, since obviously OK, GS and Houston can blow anyone out at anytime.
Nick Chubb Faster than 4.55 -180
Calvin Ridley Faster than 4.49 -200
Baker Mayfield slower than 4.69 -150
Fastest time Defense Player -135
Twins over 82.5 (homerism alert) seems like a lock. They'll play 57 games against 3 of the 4 worst teams in baseball right now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Astros over 96.5....this is a better and deeper team than last years version, and they cleared that last year. Rotation depth is just sick.
Seattle under 81.5....same ole story for them, their ideal 25 man looks good on paper, no depth, horrible farm. Any injury to a starter means you got a AAAA guy coming out there. Could change if they snap up a FA starter.
SF Giants under 82.5....Seattle of the NL. Old, no depth. I figure that, in this probable best division in baseball, if everything breaks right for the Giants, they win maybe 92, everything goes wrong....64 again. Way more probabilities that fall under that 82.5
Good stuff on the baseball totals.
Rays under twins over are the two I've booked.
Like Sox over.
I like Giants over AND under! Have to leave that one alone.
I think you could bet the over on the Sox, Toddgers, Nationals and Astros and go 3/4. But it's hard to win over 93 games generally speaking. Feel like you need to take them all or none.
This is something I am doing for the obv financial reasons. More importantly, it will provide a summer’s worth of pleasure.
I encourage you all to pahticipate. Druff might be faced with a choice between his love of the forum members and the Dodgers.
Dodgers are one team that hasn’t done squat to improve. Their analytics staff now counts around 20 though. Oddly, the math kids didn’t spot Yu Darvish tipping pitches.
MLB SEASON PROPS - REGULAR SEASON WINS - LOS ANGELES DODGERS - UNDER +96˝ WINS -115
Edit:
Druff, I won $9 in the Khalwat million dollar Freeroll
Quote:
Place7=SANLMAR (660)
Place6=tradershky2 (780)
Can you place a $9 under Dodgers wins bet? Proceeds will go to the freeroll.Quote:
4th: $40, 5th: $25, 6th: $16, 7th: $9
Best wishes & TIA
Last minute:
Detroit over 209
Also:
Golden State under 226.5
Dallas under 209
On the other two. Missed Detroit. Live bet at 211 so am going to see if it dips some.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I would sub in the indians instead of the sox there, but yeah otherwise agreed.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
The Nats worry me a bit also, if only because the division is getting better. As worse as the Marlins have become, the Phils and Braves should again be incrementally better, and I wouldn't be shocked if one of them finishes over .500. Both those teams might be in play for Arrieta now as well.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Daly (or anyone else trustworthy) - I can get $1000 down on the win total from my book - surprisingly. PM me if you have some lock like Marshall you want to work together on.
How does your over 209 go from a virtual lock after a 64 point 1Q to a substantial dog after a 33 point 2Q?
:gay
Bucks are playing just GOD AWFUL
They really are. That plus the non-scoring 2Q on both sides is responsible for this over losing.Quote:
Originally Posted by rollinx420