Although, the Lakers have a lot of young no names that are very good...
Printable View
Although, the Lakers have a lot of young no names that are very good...
Spurs 2.0, playoffs are going to be interesting..........they are hungry wolves....
Lol at these niggas.......what ... the ....fuck....like why not run out the clock? You're only up 20 points.......
I think I'm batting .000 on badguy23 picks lifetime
He should be happy I didn't bet on the Eagles
This is about as close as anyone will ever get to being forthright about their process in this thread.Quote:
Originally Posted by badguy23
Druff, not being a dick but I could of told you neither was playing 4 hours ago.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
WTF r u using for your info USA Today newspaper?
Invest in a line service I suggest Sports Options which is now Don Best you will thank me later!
Picks are like assholes. The reasons, thoughts whatever get fewer and fewer.
So you use a service, Druff. Was that so hard. You’re still a genius in my book. All that counts is W’s.
Wouldn’t it be interesting if you somehow got the service as a sponsor. Little disclaimer that your picks are not solely theirs.
It would seem to me some tout’s opinions could never develop into fraud unlike the poker affiliate concern.
Getting your tout on the radio would be a darn good listen. You’d never let it degenerate into a pure advertisement. Couple callers and you might have some magic.
I use a stats service, not a picks service.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarThis is about as close as anyone will ever get to being forthright about their process in this thread.Quote:
Originally Posted by badguy23
Picks are like assholes. The reasons, thoughts whatever get fewer and fewer.
So you use a service, Druff. Was that so hard. You’re still a genius in my book. All that counts is W’s.
Wouldn’t it be interesting if you somehow got the service as a sponsor. Little disclaimer that your picks are not solely theirs.
It would seem to me some tout’s opinions could never develop into fraud unlike the poker affiliate concern.
Getting your tout on the radio would be a darn good listen. You’d never let it degenerate into a pure advertisement. Couple callers and you might have some magic.
They also sell picks but I don't subscribe to those.
A glitch allowed me to see a few of them, and I tried betting two. Both lost.
All the picks are my own.
I should have gone 3-1 today. Washington bet was pure robbery.
The safe word is “Garappolo”.
Just type that and I’ll never bring this desire to talk about wagering with you again. You got your reasons and I’ll respect that.
Did the NBA paywall statistics?
Does your service provide some metrics you find useful? What are some of your favorites?
Are these less common stats typically only used by teams?
Am I’m violating some privacy code amongst gamblers that I am unaware of?
There are certain statistics which are more useful to bettors than others, including betting pattern statistics.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
152-119-4 is now my record, after today's 2-2.
This is now my 4th 2-2 day in the past 6 days of picks. The last 6 days:
2-2
2-2-1
2-2
1-3
0-2
2-2
But as I said earlier, the Washington under was a good pick (winning almost the whole way), and only lost because of OT, so I should have gone 3-1.
But you didn't go 3-1, you went 2-2. Enough of your after thoughts on games, post bet, win/lose. Not "should have" won or lost.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Indiana under 204
Starting 20 min
not seeing a lot I like today. Was on the fence about Clippers side, but didn't fire. So far it looks good but it's very early obv
If only I fired on the Cilppers.... oh well...
Here's another:
Sacramento +5 -115 (4.5 -110 ok)
Portland -5....late edition..
Damn youQuote:
Originally Posted by Mintjewlips
This one was correct.
Sacramento sucks. I need to just stop betting them as dogs, even when it seems like it's the right side. They're just awful.
For the second day in a row, my under involving Boston was great, but this time it didn't get fucked by OT, so at least that won.
1-1 day puts me at 153-120-4
:wrongQuote:
Originally Posted by dwaiBut you didn't go 3-1, you went 2-2. Enough of your after thoughts on games, post bet, win/lose. Not "should have" won or lost.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
An OT fucking an under is a unique case, as it indicates the pick was CORRECT, but arbitrary circumstance screwed it.
That's a lot different than picking something good in theory which just loses because the teams didn't perform the way you expected.
Here everything DOES go the way you expect, except the teams are tied at the end of regulation, thus arbitrarily screwing your pick.
If I made 4 under picks, and all 4 were under at the end of regulation, but all 4 went to OT and lost, I would be 0-4 for the day. However, they would have been great picks and I'd still be proud of making them.
If I made 4 over picks, and all 4 were under at the end of regulation, but all 4 went to OT and won, I would be 4-0 for the day. However, they would have been lousy picks, and while happy to take the money (and increase in my posted record), I would somewhat feel like a fraud, as I was actually wrong on all 4 games.
When assessing whether you're losing based upon poor picks or simply bad luck, it's important to distinguish the difference. Same thing with when you're winning. That's why I talk about the value of seeing a handicapper winning his games by a wide margin and suffering relatively few blowout losses.
I can compare it to raising in an NL game with QQ, facing a big all-in pre from an opponent, calling him because your read is that he has a lower pair, and indeed he turns over JJ. You just made a great play. If a J ends up flopping and you lose, you still don't regret calling him.
Had John Gibson under 30.5 shots on last night. Went to bed he had 29 on him with a 2 goal lead and 9 minutes left. Drawing to 1%.
Winner
Better to be lucky than good sometimes.
There are a lot of services (some pay and some free) geared towards DFS that give you very reliable up to the minute projections on whether a specific questionable player is likely to play or not. The only player they can’t figure out is Embiid. He has games where he is a late scratch with no notice and games where he goes from doubtful to playing at the last second.
FWIW none of the services I use had Westbrook as probable at any point the day Druff thought he was. Westbrook is probably tougher to tell than most players because if you ask him he will probably always tell you he is going to play (and he actually believes he will), even if he isn’t, because that is how he is wired.
What I got with Westbrook at that time I made that pick was, "Questionable but trending toward probable", and then it went downhill from there.
Brooklyn +2.5 (or moneyline +120 or better)
Lakers under 214 -115 (213.5 ok)
Looking at San Antonio under, but not posting yet
Brooklyn moneyline is the move...
Orlando +5...
Denver -7......
Spurs +11 maybe, bet real low.....
Druff u might as well hammer the halftime line and get +16 for the nets game
No, I'm done. I could get +22.5 right now, but I'm done.Quote:
Originally Posted by rollinx420
Brooklyn sucks. Not going to back them anymore, nor will I back Sac.
I'm getting close to just giving up on sides and sticking to O/U, which are still doing fairly well for me.
I think Mint's Orlando pick is good.
I considered it, but was scared away because the game just has too many key players out. Parker, Vucevic, Gordon...
But Orlando was getting 5 and is at home, and the Bucks haven't looked very good lately, so it was tempting.
Anyway, decent start, so GL
We were both wrong about Brooklyn.
ive seen complete reversals many times in the 4th quarter where a team outscores the other something like 33-16 or 35-20
this shit aint over
Yeah, we've got a game.Quote:
Originally Posted by rollinx420
This is going to force me to turn it back on
Wow Pelicans are melting down.
7 point game. 8 mins left
Brooklyn has a realistic chance to win this one.
2 point game
Amazing if Brooklyn comes back from 28 down and wins
:outright
... now 4 points.
It is a bit annoying watching Brooklyn still making sloppy mistakes despite the Pelicans melting down. If they were a better team, they'd be ahead already.
Dinwiddie and DeAngelo gonna do this
They better. I bet the moneyline on this one.Quote:
Originally Posted by rollinx420
Not loving these desperate 3s when down 2 and having the momentum in your favor.
They should be attacking the basket and drawing the fouls, which has been successful so far.
Interesting how one of the commentators on the YES network is female.
Dinwiddie is killing it though.
Too bad the 3s for the Nets are not falling. They've got to quit that. Let Dinwiddie penetrate.
D'Angelo Russell has been shitting the bed through all this. Just made a dumb turnover. This is going to lose.
DeAngelo just went full retard
Well........here we go with OT.
Maybe I can get a rare OT win here.
Nets definitely have the momentum.
Allen Crabbe sends it to OT .... 31-16 nets win the 4th quarter
Honestly they should have closed it out in OT up 122-118 with like 2 mins left.Quote:
Originally Posted by rollinx420
Now it's tied and it's anyone's game with 48 secs left.
Edit: Now just screwed by a terrible no-cal with 4 secs left.
:gay
Double Edit: 2 OT
Well, Nets had a chance. Now they've totally shit the bed in 2OT, and that's that.
Nice try, though. Almost had a 28-point comeback win. Wasn't to be.
Lakers under is a disaster in 1Q. Nobody playing any defense.
70 points in the 1st
Just parlayed Hunt & Rockhold to win in Australia tonight.