**OFFICIAL Donald J. Trump vs. Joseph (Joe) R. Biden Thread - 2020 Presidential Election**

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Originally Posted by sonatine

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Originally Posted by nightmarefish

I actually think Trump wins Florida. I saw somewhere that in 2016 there were 400k more registered Dems than Republicans in Miami-Dade County and for this election that’s been reduced to just a 140k advantage. Obviously Trump still won the state in 2016 even with that larger gap.

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what i saw on the florida map in 2016 makes it very difficult for me to imagine him not winning florida again.

also, florida.

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Originally Posted by Krypt

I simply cannot see Trump losing FL. Orange man is closing very strong imo and has incumbent advantage. If I were backing Biden, I wouldn’t be sleeping tonight.

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i hope so,...everything i read, see and feel regarding trump taking fla points to an easy win for him. his position has gotten even stronger from the early turnout.

i really want to keep firing away and unload all my bullets on it.....i still see an opportunity to win even more

Good, show a little kid balancing on your head, Trump insulting somebody, show a little girl hugging a teddy bear, good time to show "grab'em by the pussy" clip, show old people being treated badly in hospital, "jews will not replace us" clip, protesters being gassed by police and using a pencil to vote for Biden/Harris. Wait a paper voting ballet? This is 2020 not 2000. You are suppose to vote electronically on a computer. We are so fucked.

Embedded Tweet

https://youtu.be/WuZjdA1H8Ks

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Originally Posted by thesidedish

u threatened to tell ppl who know me about me? uhhhh im not a libtard dude, i don't have a fake persona. i can walk up to your poker table drunk and riff on u for 10 minutes and get the whole table laughing at what a freak u are. thats how easy u are to beat, i could do it blacked out

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a show of hands here. thumbs down if you find yourself laughing at a drunk's target. thumbs up if you find yourself laughing at the ranting drunk. high five if you do and say nothing until the drunk stumbles off.

dish, i figured you to be over 22 yo.

i realize the culture on the northern plains is fucked up and ur a product of that culture but really, bragging about drinking and excelling.

how are u related to pillow man? another funny drunk?

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Originally Posted by MumblesBadly

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

I have a feeling that Biden is going to underperform in several of the "trending blue" states, such as AZ, GA, NC, and TX.

Keep in mind that AZ and GA were considered competitive in 2016, but Trump easily won both of them.

Trump being up 7 in that latest Iowa poll shows that he's probably not losing by a landslide. If it's going to be close, this really all comes down to PA. I think PA is the ultimate bellwether in this one. If Trump wins PA, not only is that part of his path to victory, but it's probably indicative that he's going to carry all of the other swing states, except for the northern ones.

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Druff, where do you stand on what Team Trump is trying to do re claim that only the voting results reported on Election Day should matter and that additional votes added afterwards because of how long it takes states to count all of the votes, such as early-cast votes (which most states don’t start counting until Election Day) and mailed-in votes?

https://youtu.be/CbO6_UZIzpQ

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Druff, did I miss your answer to my question here?

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Originally Posted by MumblesBadly

https://youtu.be/WuZjdA1H8Ks

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Is this supposed to be comedy?

Maybe he'd do better with a laugh track.

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Originally Posted by Texter

Naked Lunch might be the strangest book ever written...after the bible of course.

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there was a great quote about why it was perpetually optioned for film for decades; any reasonable attempt to translate the book to film would cost hundreds of millions of dollars and the movie would instantly be banned by every civilized country on earth.

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Originally Posted by Krypt

I simply cannot see Trump losing FL. Orange man is closing very strong imo and has incumbent advantage. If I were backing Biden, I wouldn’t be sleeping tonight.

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yeah frankly i dont see people factoring in the 'if you wanna be the king, you gotta beat the king' dynamic and it worries me.

defeating an incumbent president with heartland support is an INCREDIBLY big deal, and im honestly not sure even bernie could have pulled it off to tbh.

maybe biden can win tonight, maybe covid will be trumps iran hostage crisis, but when you get down to it, the people who are most important for that sort of tidal shift in voting numbers, they are trump voters still.

theres a lot of slippery math for a biden path to 270 out there and its valid but i think anyone predicating a thesis on florida voting blue hates money.

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Originally Posted by sonatine

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Originally Posted by Krypt

I simply cannot see Trump losing FL. Orange man is closing very strong imo and has incumbent advantage. If I were backing Biden, I wouldn’t be sleeping tonight.

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yeah frankly i dont see people factoring in the 'if you wanna be the king, you gotta beat the king' dynamic and it worries me.

defeating an incumbent president with heartland support is an INCREDIBLY big deal, and im honestly not sure even bernie could have pulled it off to tbh.

maybe biden can win tonight, maybe covid will be trumps iran hostage crisis, but when you get down to it, the people who are most important for that sort of tidal shift in voting numbers, they are trump voters still.

theres a lot of slippery math for a biden path to 270 out there and its valid but i think anyone predicating a thesis on florida voting blue hates money.

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The only bet I had was on turnout, which is kind of like betting over and under when you want to bet the game and don’t think the team you like is going to win.

I don’t like the arguments I see being put forth. I don’t think the early run up is enough is most of these states. I keep seeing the argument about those votes are banked and the republicans are relying on big turnout today. I have never had a doubt they’ll get huge turnout. What I see is simply the most enthusiastic voters ever. That I hate these horn honking flag waving motherfuckers doesn’t make me ignore that they exist. They’re up and down the street. I can’t ignore them. That wasn’t the case last time.

I don’t see a single thing that tells me Biden will win outside polls. That’s it. I live in the worst place alive to try to be hopeful, and I keep thinking these people will never be able to be taken seriously again if they’re this wrong, so I hope they’re right, but it’s hard to see.

I was looking around at other models and PLO was right. 538 is the most conservative giving Trump 10%. The Economist was basically 20-1. Giving Biden 19 out of 20 simulations. Charlie Cook saying the polls are even underestimating Biden support.

You can talk about 10 is still 10% and 19/20 isn’t 20, but miss this bad twice in a row and you are absolutely done. People will never believe a poll again after two cycles of this.

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Originally Posted by BCR

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Originally Posted by sonatine

yeah frankly i dont see people factoring in the 'if you wanna be the king, you gotta beat the king' dynamic and it worries me.

defeating an incumbent president with heartland support is an INCREDIBLY big deal, and im honestly not sure even bernie could have pulled it off to tbh.

maybe biden can win tonight, maybe covid will be trumps iran hostage crisis, but when you get down to it, the people who are most important for that sort of tidal shift in voting numbers, they are trump voters still.

theres a lot of slippery math for a biden path to 270 out there and its valid but i think anyone predicating a thesis on florida voting blue hates money.

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The only bet I had was on turnout, which is kind of like betting over and under when you want to bet the game and don’t think the team you like is going to win.

I don’t like the arguments I see being put forth. I don’t think the early run up is enough is most of these states. I keep seeing the argument about those votes are banked and the republicans are relying on big turnout today. I have never had a doubt they’ll get huge turnout. What I see is simply the most enthusiastic voters ever. That I hate these horn honking flag waving motherfuckers doesn’t make me ignore that they exist. They’re up and down the street. I can’t ignore them. That wasn’t the case last time.

I don’t see a single thing that tells me Biden will win outside polls. That’s it. I live in the worst place alive to try to be hopeful, and I keep thinking these people will never be able to be taken seriously again if they’re this wrong, so I hope they’re right, but it’s hard to see.

I was looking around at other models and PLO was right. 538 is the most conservative giving Trump 10%. The Economist was basically 20-1. Giving Biden 19 out of 20 simulations. Charlie Cook saying the polls are even underestimating Biden support.

You can talk about 10 is still 10% and 19/20 isn’t 20, but miss this bad twice in a row and you are absolutely done. People will never believe a poll again after two cycles of this.

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ive been trotting out your 'middle class republicans dont answer the phones after a hard days work' thesis whenever one of my friends starts getting starry eyed about polling and its been landing.

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Originally Posted by MumblesBadly

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Originally Posted by MumblesBadly

Druff, where do you stand on what Team Trump is trying to do re claim that only the voting results reported on Election Day should matter and that additional votes added afterwards because of how long it takes states to count all of the votes, such as early-cast votes (which most states don’t start counting until Election Day) and mailed-in votes?

https://youtu.be/CbO6_UZIzpQ

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Druff, did I miss your answer to my question here?

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Former Trump aide Jason Miller said he hired prostitutes and visited massage parlors, court documents say

https://www.businessinsider.com/trum...titutes-2019-7

Druff's kind of guy. He's married and got one of his girlfriends pregnant four years ago. But that is not a disqualification, by fucking whores, Trump decided that his judgement is good and hired him back.

https://pyxis.nymag.com/v1/imgs/86f/...cial.w1200.jpg

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Originally Posted by sonatine

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Originally Posted by BCR

The only bet I had was on turnout, which is kind of like betting over and under when you want to bet the game and don’t think the team you like is going to win.

I don’t like the arguments I see being put forth. I don’t think the early run up is enough is most of these states. I keep seeing the argument about those votes are banked and the republicans are relying on big turnout today. I have never had a doubt they’ll get huge turnout. What I see is simply the most enthusiastic voters ever. That I hate these horn honking flag waving motherfuckers doesn’t make me ignore that they exist. They’re up and down the street. I can’t ignore them. That wasn’t the case last time.

I don’t see a single thing that tells me Biden will win outside polls. That’s it. I live in the worst place alive to try to be hopeful, and I keep thinking these people will never be able to be taken seriously again if they’re this wrong, so I hope they’re right, but it’s hard to see.

I was looking around at other models and PLO was right. 538 is the most conservative giving Trump 10%. The Economist was basically 20-1. Giving Biden 19 out of 20 simulations. Charlie Cook saying the polls are even underestimating Biden support.

You can talk about 10 is still 10% and 19/20 isn’t 20, but miss this bad twice in a row and you are absolutely done. People will never believe a poll again after two cycles of this.

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ive been trotting out your 'middle class republicans dont answer the phones after a hard days work' thesis whenever one of my friends starts getting starry eyed about polling and its been landing.

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I hope you and your friends are mocking my thesis as the ramblings of a rust belt retard with 2016 PTSD tonight while drinking wine. I want to be the object of mockery.

if its real quality mockery you want, pretty good chance youll get more than your fill from every foreign free press news outlet on the planet in about 24 hours.

My buddy in Columbus thinks I’m crazy. He points to his suburb where it’s completely flipped. It’s why I don’t put much validity into who do you think the neighbor is voting for type polls. It’s so fucking polarized. You’d never imagine Biden has a prayer where I live. Not one out. I have passed larger crowds outside a Walgreens waving Trump flags than Biden could draw pre-Covid.

I have passed miles long caravans on the highway. I am going to vote in probably 90 minutes. I will be interested what I see. My precinct is a small high income traditionally Romney type red area in a town that used to be blue. If there is crossover, this would be the crossover area. I don’t think there is any here.

On a side note, during a group text, I had a buddy in Estero, Fl who makes probably close to a million a year and another buddy in Columbus both say that they cast their first democratic votes ever. I should probably be more optimistic. The one in Florida says his brother cast his first ever Democratic vote at 56 years old. I should probably be more optimistic. PLO has been rarely wrong in the years I watched him here. Very sharp kid.

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Originally Posted by cleatus

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Originally Posted by thesidedish

u threatened to tell ppl who know me about me? uhhhh im not a libtard dude, i don't have a fake persona. i can walk up to your poker table drunk and riff on u for 10 minutes and get the whole table laughing at what a freak u are. thats how easy u are to beat, i could do it blacked out

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a show of hands here. thumbs down if you find yourself laughing at a drunk's target. thumbs up if you find yourself laughing at the ranting drunk. high five if you do and say nothing until the drunk stumbles off.

dish, i figured you to be over 22 yo.

i realize the culture on the northern plains is fucked up and ur a product of that culture but really, bragging about drinking and excelling.

how are u related to pillow man? another funny drunk?

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That's why u dumb fuck libtards are so bad at analyzing politics: u do not accept that human beings are stupid as fuck and make all their decisions emotionally and then make up some excuse later to rationalize it. All Im saying I have to do is get ppl to laugh WITH me and they will always remember how good my zingers were on my target who is now branded as an annoying weirdo for life. They will choose me, the bros bro type, almost every time unless they too have an annoying faggot personality like yourself

Just heard some firsthand intel on turnout etc. this morning in Missouri. Apparently Trump's support among rural area voters is even bigger, some places by double or close to it, by early voting and lines so far alone than 2016.

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Originally Posted by BCR

My buddy in Columbus thinks I’m crazy. He points to his suburb where it’s completely flipped. It’s why I don’t put much validity into who do you think the neighbor is voting for type polls. It’s so fucking polarized. You’d never imagine Biden has a prayer where I live. Not one out. I have passed larger crowds outside a Walgreens waving Trump flags than Biden could draw pre-Covid.

I have passed miles long caravans on the highway. I am going to vote in probably 90 minutes. I will be interested what I see. My precinct is a small high income traditionally Romney type red area in a town that used to be blue. If there is crossover, this would be the crossover area. I don’t think there is any here.

On a side note, during a group text, I had a buddy in Estero, Fl who makes probably close to a million a year and another buddy in Columbus both say that they cast their first democratic votes ever. I should probably be more optimistic. The one in Florida says his brother cast his first ever Democratic vote at 56 years old. I should probably be more optimistic. PLO has been rarely wrong in the years I watched him here. Very sharp kid.

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the + biden column is people who rolled the dice on trump who should have known better knowing better and voting for biden.

the - biden column is that we have entered the phase of the cult where people are flocking to it as a brand because they feel compelled to belong to something.

who the fuck really thinks biden of all people is going to somehow find the means to solve that.

Cleatus, the reason I told PLOP his initial threat to me is futile is the same reason that 90% of ppl at a poker game are going to be taking my side vs him: I get away with saying whatever i want cuz I'm great at getting ppl to rofl

#TRUMP2020Landside is trending on Twitter.

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Originally Posted by Wiganer

#TRUMP2020Landside is trending on Twitter.

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Big if true