The refs bailed them out with a courtesy touchdown. Jaguars will probably have a turnover on the 1st drive of the 2nd half.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
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The refs bailed them out with a courtesy touchdown. Jaguars will probably have a turnover on the 1st drive of the 2nd half.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
Looks like the shitty champagne will remain unopened
Ideal for books would be New England winning but not covering.
If Jacksonville wins outright, books will lose on the ML but win on the spread.
The cameras caught Gronk asking his teammate where he was so................I'm guessing he won't be back.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenisthere is no fucking way that gronk misses the second half unless TV cameras physically catch him walking like he's drunk...the regular season has shown that the concussion protocol is bullshit...Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
ill be very impressed if they actually put teeth into this concussion protocol in the afc championship game...had a guy get knocked out and had his hand twitching and they still let him back in the game in the regular season...Quote:
Originally Posted by Hockey GuyThe cameras caught Gronk asking his teammate where he was so................I'm guessing he won't be back.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
Well I guess it's 3 out of 27 years now on the FG over 50
Detroit game not going how expected, though it's gotten closer so at least that makes a higher 2H more likely.
Futures bets - August 2017
Odds - Which NFL team will win the Super Bowl?
New England Patriots...3 to 1
Jacksonville Jaguars...150 to 1
How embarrassing will it be to lose to the worst team in the league?
Tom Brady should've retired last year.
:facepalm6
Officially out for the game. I guess he couldn't fake out the test.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenisill be very impressed if they actually put teeth into this concussion protocol in the afc championship game...had a guy get knocked out and had his hand twitching and they still let him back in the game in the regular season...Quote:
Originally Posted by Hockey Guy
I didn't think hed be able to fake out any test, I would figure they would say this is the afc championship game we aren't holding him out if he wants to go back in...just funny that now the concussion test has teeth...gotta love the nfl...Quote:
Originally Posted by Hockey GuyOfficially out for the game. I guess he couldn't fake out the test.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
Kiss the Detroit over goodbye.
They are missing every single shot in the 2nd half of the 3rd quarter.
:gay
Patriots really are blessed.
I thought they finally shit the bed.
Those Brady Facebook ads are tilting.
One of the rare times I'm rooting for OT in the NBA.
It's actually possible because Detroit is within 7. Otherwise this bet is fucked. If it goes OT, it will probably be close enough to 209 after regulation to where we will win.
No further NBA bets today.
94-94 with 2 mins left.
Let's goooooooooooo OT
Uggggggggggh
98-98 with 13.7 left, and a stupid shooting foul happened, and 1/2 free throws made.
If I had the under, 100% this was going to OT.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheXFactor
Meh. Might as well play it out
Hoped you hedged broQuote:
Originally Posted by TheXFactor
Well, Brooklyn was the one missing all the FTs and they won anyways, so didn't really matter in the end.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Lose the Detroit under by 8. 101-100 final. Can't ever get OT when I need it.
127-93-2 is my record
Good game. Cashed Jags ticket. Now I am laying a huge one on Vikings -160.
I took a littleQuote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
Worst part is I promised someone I would watch that Tom Brady Facebook movie if the Pats won
The loss can’t be fully calculated yet
Last minute bets on this NFC game?
I took Vikings -3.Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22
Just a degenerate play.
I ended up just doing a big teaser, Phi +9 and over 33Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarI took Vikings -3.Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22
Just a degenerate play.
Nick Foles trying to keep this job for next year or get traded and earn a big payday.
hellllllllllllllllllllllllo Washington...Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerAndPoker
Foles giving thanks to god. He can thank him personally at the Super Bowl.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenishellllllllllllllllllllllllo Washington...Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerAndPoker
He wears number 12
Looks like when the smoke clears it will be 5.5-6 and 47.5-48
and interesting tidbit on that...if wentz was the starter the westgate says it would be a pick 'em...jesus foles is worth 6 points to the pats...Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
I know lots of people who took teasers on these recent games.
As long as you understand how intensely -EV typical teasers are, then it's your money and I'm not going to question it.
If you're betting to win money, though, you really should avoid them for the most part.
If you really want to be a degen with 2 or more games, at least take a parlay so you'll hit a nice score when you get lucky and win. A typical teaser gives you the worst of both worlds of a huge house edge and no opportunity to win big.
Regarding teasers, use the following rules and you will be fine:
- Don't tease totals
- Only tease if the original line is -8.5, -8, -7.5, +1.5, +2, or +2.5
- Even when the original line is one of those listed above, try to stick with only teasing low and medium-total games (the lower, the better)
- Avoid teasing teams which have a problem with playing inconsistently and getting blown out fairly often
I disagree with you and I will articulate why. NFL playoff games, especially conference championships and Super Bowls, are historically close. The lines on the games reflected as much. I understand Wong teasers and will expound. Yesterday I was leaning towards Phi +3 but I didnt love it. Liked it, probably a small bet, but didnt love it. Now +9 is completely different. I loved the idea of getting 9 points in this spot. So what did I have to sacrifice to get that? I did a teaser and pushed the total down to 33. In my mind it was extremely unlikely that it wouldnt go over 33. Possible obviously but unlikely. So I traded the small chance it goes under 33 for the opportunity to get 9 points instead of 3.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
The counter argument is why not just parlay and get 2.5X if I win (which I would have). But in order to do that I would have to take +3, which I didnt love and couple that with o39 which I also didnt love. I was willing to trade the 6 extra points (which again is HUGE in NFL playoff games) and shoot for a lower side over
Summary- I was going to take Phi +3 -110. To me taking PHI +9 and o33 -110 was actually the better bet. +3 to +9 is almost a wong type teaser (crossing the 3 from push to win and also crossing the 7 line). I bet 2 units for me instead of the 1 I typically bet. So hitting both gave me almost the same payout as a parlay but I felt like I was much more likely to win. Sure I risked one extra unit but the +9 and o33 felt right
Just because "to you" it was the better bet, doesn't mean it actually was. Your argument is about as mathematically sound as someone trying to argue why some weird variation of blackjack you see in all the casinos is higher EV than just playing normal blackjack. Druff is making a general argument based on actual mathematics and statistics, and your counterargument is a N=1 empirical argument based on your feelings. I hope you can understand and appreciate the difference.Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22I disagree with you and I will articulate why. NFL playoff games, especially conference championships and Super Bowls, are historically close. The lines on the games reflected as much. I understand Wong teasers and will expound. Yesterday I was leaning towards Phi +3 but I didnt love it. Liked it, probably a small bet, but didnt love it. Now +9 is completely different. I loved the idea of getting 9 points in this spot. So what did I have to sacrifice to get that? I did a teaser and pushed the total down to 33. In my mind it was extremely unlikely that it wouldnt go over 33. Possible obviously but unlikely. So I traded the small chance it goes under 33 for the opportunity to get 9 points instead of 3.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
The counter argument is why not just parlay and get 2.5X if I win (which I would have). But in order to do that I would have to take +3, which I didnt love and couple that with o39 which I also didnt love. I was willing to trade the 6 extra points (which again is HUGE in NFL playoff games) and shoot for a lower side over
Summary- I was going to take Phi +3 -110. To me taking PHI +9 and o33 -110 was actually the better bet. +3 to +9 is almost a wong type teaser (crossing the 3 from push to win and also crossing the 7 line). I bet 2 units for me instead of the 1 I typically bet. So hitting both gave me almost the same payout as a parlay but I felt like I was much more likely to win. Sure I risked one extra unit but the +9 and o33 felt right
I have teased totals myself on occasion, but I did it without any delusion this is ever better than just making a standard bet at -105. The only way this could possibly be true is if you had some sort of model that indicated moving the lines gave you enough higher EV to overcome the increased juice you were paying.
With all due respect, you're the worst sports bettor Ive ever saw. You say so much yourself. Why do you think I would listen to anything you have to say?Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaardJust because "to you" it was the better bet, doesn't mean it actually was. Your argument is about as mathematically sound as someone trying to argue why some weird variation of blackjack you see in all the casinos is higher EV than just playing normal blackjack. Druff is making a general argument based on actual mathematics and statistics, and your counterargument is a N=1 empirical argument based on your feelings. I hope you can understand and appreciate the difference.Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22
I have teased totals myself on occasion, but I did it without any delusion this is ever better than just making a standard bet at -105. The only way this could possibly be true is if you had some sort of model that indicated moving the lines gave you enough higher EV to overcome the increased juice you were paying.
Furthermore, everyone coming in this thread talking about "this is -ev" or "that is -ev"; no SHIT its called sports betting. You arent beating it long term. If you think you are in it for long term money, you're a moron. So spare me that line of discussion as well. Its silly
Something like 38% of NFL games end up 1-7 point spreads. Adding 6 points to the line is obviously a huge deal. I honestly didnt know the math so I looked it up. In order for a two team teaser to be a break even bet at -110 you are essentially laying -235 on both lines. Now in my case would I have bet Philly +9 -235? Probably not. Would I have bet o33 -235? Possibly. But instead I parlayed both of those at -235 each and got a two teamer that pays -110. Understand? And Im fine with that. Its a spot I liked. I was right BTW
I have no grand illusion that I am solving sports betting. When discussing sports betting and your only line is "thats -ev" then the conversation is over. Its all -ev people!
L. Markkanen points under 16.5 -115 (Bovada/5dimes)
L. Markkanen points + rebounds under 24.5 -120 (Bovada)
D. Fox under 12.5 points -110 (Bovada)
I can't really advise playing these anymore given the prices, but Whiteside unders if you feel like laying some serious juice.
I already have a bet in mind for the super bowl. By the numbers it's a solid bet. It's not some crazy exotic and everyone will be able to be it at 90% of books.
Rumor has it there is going to be a Radio show next week with some of the heaviest hitters in the PFA sports wagering universe.
If it happens I'll be releasing the play.
Atlanta +2.5 (or moneyline)
That's the first pick.
Still analyzing the 5pm PST and later games (of which there are many)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
If we get some sports Radio, how about a reasonable starting time?
More:
Memphis +3.5 (moneyline of +140 ok)
Houston under 212.5
Still may post more
There better be a "Dilly Dilly" prop this year.