Very disrespectful.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
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Very disrespectful.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Always nice to have an easy one.Quote:
Originally Posted by KidPresentable
13-3 +9.7
NBA league pass is free this week.
FYI
I'm glad this Denver game is ending soon.
They were up 21 and it looked like it was over.
Now Denver has been playing like shit for almost a full quarter, and hopefully they can hold a 7-point or more lead long enough to finish this (it's 12 right now).
I better not get PLOPped here.
Lead down to 8.
3 minutes left.
Denver looks horrendous. Can't make a basket, can't run any effective plays, and clueless of defense.
Ridiculous. This should be over. You watching?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Yes. Denver looks worse than I've seen any team look in a long time.Quote:
Originally Posted by CharhamRidiculous. This should be over. You watching?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
They are just awful right now. Lead down to 4, and suddenly we need to come from behind to win.
Unbelievable.
NBA games are by far the absolute worst games to sweat IMO for reasons like thisQuote:
Originally Posted by CharhamRidiculous. This should be over. You watching?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Bottom line is everyone makes a run and a lot of them come at the worst times
This is worse than a run. Denver just quit playing. Now they can't get back into even a slight groove.
Dennis Smith just keeps making layups at will. Dude looks like Allen Iverson all of a sudden.
I've really been victimized by a lot of late collapses with picks which look like almost sure winners.
I feel like I'm running so bad that I'm not even all that excited about Portland being up 25.
Basketball is quite frustrating from a betting perspective that way.
Look at the Warriors/Raptors game on Saturday. The Dubs were up 81-54 at the half and had to scrap all the way to the end to just hold and win the game straight up. And then Toronto hit a meaningless 3 at the buzzer to cover.
And seems to have been a lot of games that have gone that way.
Been happening for decades. It's a big reason I like betting on football primarily. Not that you can control anything in Football but it seems things seem to go the way they should more often and NBA has so many backdoor covers etc... because of pace of the games is so fastQuote:
Originally Posted by KidPresentable
Looking like 2 late collapses on Druff's bets (which I tailed) are likely. I will say I watch a lot of Blazers games because they are late when I have time to watch TV and their scrubs that come in in blowouts really try to score, so that is good at least. It is a bunch of random tall white guys who are decent for scrubs and play hard.
I've never met anyone who can beat baseball over the long run. It's incredibly difficult and random night in night out.
It seems to me NBA can be beat but it almost seems like it's really more of a pshycology play on what group of multi millionaire players are going to show up on a given night.
Even though in NBA we see a lot of backdoor covers in the regular season their is so much information you can use to your advantage when betting compared to other sports. I say regular season because playoffs to me has always felt like a different animal.
We also don't have weather to influence our decisions.
You're more negative than even I am.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
You're underestimating how terrible the Suns are.
-11 bets are always a risk because you get fucked in trash time fairly often, but I still think we have this one. Won't be shocked if we lose though.
Well, you are 20 games above .500 in NBA and I am probably 20 games below .500. So my pessimism normally has been justified unfortunately.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffYou're more negative than even I am.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
You're underestimating how terrible the Suns are.
-11 bets are always a risk because you get fucked in trash time fairly often, but I still think we have this one. Won't be shocked if we lose though.
Troy Daniels is horrible mostly G league player, but he can get hot from 3's, and it looks like that is exactly what is going on. Rut Roh.
Pheonix has made 5 open 3s in a row. Cover dead as a duck. They may win the actual game at this point.
And Phoenix is now tightening up the game. I am going to run some numbers. But live bet the losing team ,take points, around half time in blow out games may be the play?Quote:
Originally Posted by chinamaniacNBA games are by far the absolute worst games to sweat IMO for reasons like thisQuote:
Originally Posted by Charham
Bottom line is everyone makes a run and a lot of them come at the worst times
I used to do this in prior seasons. I would look for a closely-lined game (not one like this) where a team was down 20+ at halftime, and take the other side.Quote:
Originally Posted by CharhamAnd Phoenix is now tightening up the game. I am going to run some numbers. But live bet the losing team ,take points, around half time in blow out games may be the play?Quote:
Originally Posted by chinamaniac
Worked for awhile, but stopped winning enough to be +EV in my opinion. I've noticed in recent years that the books have adjusted, and will put up lines to account for the fact that this happens a lot.
Sure there is a ton of info agree, backdoor covers don't really mean anything in the grand scheme of things , that is unless you sweat these games hard because stress kills. I used to sweat NCAA hoop totals and looking back it was not fun. Although there is some valuable info I guess you could gain by sweating games.Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerAndPoker
Picks are either +ev or not. In the end your going to get as many backdoor covers for you as you do against.
Gotta give Druff some credit for blasting to a nice record so far using whatever method he has picking the games. Beating the NBA night in and night out over a year or longer is a tough thing to do.
Have seen some guys go on NBA tears before but have never seen it sustained. Druff seems to be onto something that may be sustainable
Anyone who wants to bail out of Porltand -11, you can get Phoenix +13.5 right now on Bovada.
LOL. UP by 12 with one minute left and they fouled Booker on an off balance 3 point shot and of course he hits all 3 FTs.
Yeah that's close to the nail in the coffin. Only way we win is if Phoenix misses, then Porland makes a basket, and then the scoring stops.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
Booker can't miss. he has made like 4 circus shots in a row. Nothing to do. Portland will of course easily win but cover is dead.
Yep, we lose.
What a horrible pair of beats.
One 25-point lead, one 23-point lead, both sides of -6 and -11 lose in the final minute.
Record falls to 116-89-2 after this 0-2 day which should have been 2-0.
:gay
:gay2
:gay3
I took a week off of NBA betting because this shit was happening every game and it wasn't fun anymore. I come back and I lose 2 games like this, it is a pretty clear sign. I am done with this BS. Been focusing more on NBA Daily Fantasy and it is a lot more fun and I do a lot better.
You guys have fun and good luck with your sportsbetting. Will see you next football season.
Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
FYP
Weren't you the one who put up the resolution thread asking to limit contentless trolling? How would you characterize this last post?Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
FYP
Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
FYP
Great pick last night btw.
In case anyone is concerned about my sports betting bankroll, actually had a pretty decent night last night in daily fantasy. One of my lineups was 10 points away from winning $20k. Alex Len was the X factor. He scored 20 points at 2% ownership, he scores 30 and I win $20k.
Alright Druff, can we get tonights picks please?
Toronto under 212.5
New Orleans over 219
OKC under 216 (215.5 ok)
fingers crossed no last minute monkey business tonight!Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Also Utah -4
Nothing like seeing your over get off to a strong start, then 3 points score in 4 min.
New Orleans over, after a strong start, has become an absolute catastrophe, and will probably still lose even if it gets OT.
Toronto under likely to win.
OKC under a toss-up right now.
Utah hasn't started.
2-1 start to the night.
Go Jazz.
Little drama about Tom Brady missing his press appearance.
Allegedly, his throwing hand was hurt in practice on a handoff. Jammed and cut.
Brian Shapiro at Bovada claims the Pats would be -3 over Jacksonville IF HOYER STARTED INSTEAD OF BRADY
Can you imagine the last four teams trotting out a junior varsity of Hoyer, Foles, Bortles & Keenum. A ratings bonanza.
Useless trivia. Since Belichick has been coach the Pats were double digit dogs only twice. This is when he just started. Won both.
Had a small heart attack this afternoon. That is why you shouldn’t bet on a Monday. Doesn’t matter.
When it came down to it, none of my 4 picks were close, though the OKC under was a bit of a sweat until the scoring died in the final 4 minutes.
The New Orleans over was a disaster.
Look at how last night's games went:
New Orleans over: Lost by 32 points
Toronto under: Won by 27.5 points
OKC under: Won by 12 points
Utah side: Won by 11 points
So it was three good picks and one terrible pick. Still a good result, and a nice relief from the horrible double-bad-beat I suffered the day prior.
I may actually be seeing things well again.
Monday was 3-0, Tuesday was 0-2, and Wednesday was 3-1.
However, both Tuesday losses were highly likely wins where two surprising collapses snatched victories from me in the final minute.
Had those two unusual collapses not occurred, we would be looking at 8-1 in the past 3 days. Even if I had split them, I would be 7-2 in the past 3.
Small sample, but I've also been hitting wins with a wider margin of victory again, so that's encouraging to see.
Blowout losses do concern me a bit (I just had one last night), but as long as those are infrequent, it's not a big deal.
I did take my 90th loss on Wednesday, and my record stands at 119-90-2.