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Quote:
Originally Posted by badguy23
U could have -1 nowQuote:
Originally Posted by DJ_Chaps
Only book holding Por -3 is Bovada so u no what that means Portland is Public as hell. Good Luck.
But something doesn't smell right about this one.
:facepalm2
worse than that, i needed them by 6+ to win my 4 game proline. they got there then fell off.
Up 101-94 with a few mins left you think a -2 is safe
Nope.
111-110 final to lose by 1.
:gay3
Just saw the Eagles are the first team in NFL history to be a #1 seed division round underdog.
Just great.
Worst part is I agree.
I'll try and dig it up the exact factoid but I read earlier this is something along the lines of the third instance of a second round home team being an underdog. The first two times the home team won outright by 10+.Quote:
Originally Posted by vegas1369
Hard to "love" the eagles here but there is a reason why the 3's they hung on the board for a few minutes came right down.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyI'll try and dig it up the exact factoid but I read earlier this is something along the lines of the third instance of a second round home team being an underdog. The first two times the home team won outright by 10+.Quote:
Originally Posted by vegas1369
Hard to "love" the eagles here but there is a reason why the 3's they hung on the board for a few minutes came right down.
it's 3 on sportsbook and has been all day
Was going off of this...Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyI'll try and dig it up the exact factoid but I read earlier this is something along the lines of the third instance of a second round home team being an underdog. The first two times the home team won outright by 10+.Quote:
Originally Posted by vegas1369
Hard to "love" the eagles here but there is a reason why the 3's they hung on the board for a few minutes came right down.
http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id...-round-history
Thanks to the last-minute screw job, I only went 1-1.
Record now is 106-74-2.
I have recovered somewhat from the 1-7 slump, going 7-5 since.
Most of these lines have moved but you can take most of the rushing unders in this game tonight. Prob can make a profit just playing any unders that are on the board period with reasonable prices.
if you think that that doesn't bode well for UGA...Quote:
Originally Posted by chinamaniac
I've had a good prop on Ga to win the NC. They are good. Alabama's experience in this situation will prevail I'm afraid. So, I'm taking them -3.5 with some ML at -190 which seems high. GL
Sometimes you just have the moments when you are seeing clearly. Went 3-1 (lost Car +250) including a massive play on Atlanta. It is a perfect time to zig zag. After the game I pulled my #s and had Philly -8 or 9 with Foles next week. I thought maybe everyone would do what they always do and ride a team this week they shit on all last week and I would only have to lay 4 or 5. Needless to say I am very happy with +3 and moneyline. Rolled it all into that.
Also went Tenn +13.5 (hold nose), Vikes -4 and Jax +7.5 (hold nose) last night. They have all moved favorably with exception of Philly getting no respect.
Had Bama as a 4 pt fav so no realy value either way. Took a little -3.5 for action but dont really care just want a good game.
As discussed, same place as you China.Quote:
Originally Posted by chinamaniac
Unders all around. Kind of surprised some of the early lines are moving up.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyAs discussed, same place as you China.Quote:
Originally Posted by chinamaniac
Unders all around. Kind of surprised some of the early lines are moving up.
I took all rushing unders. Any other leans?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kazoey
I don't have halftime bets on Minn yet, but i'm taking them. Scared of how well and often NO comes back from big deficits though. I don't see Jax being able to score more than 13. I see Pitt scoring in the 20s. So, i'm going Pitt. I also like Philly. Atl has no heart this year. Prob my favorite play. Taking NE over Tenn. The latter is aids and NE won't allow that kind of comeback like KC did -- and Reid should retire BTW.
Sometimes you trust your nose or learn to ride an ATM. I’ve been making one bet a week and life has never been simplerQuote:
Originally Posted by Kazoey
Got Pats -13 -105
It’s not newsworthy but it’s been money
Dogs 4-0 Wildcard weekend.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarSometimes you trust your nose or learn to ride an ATM. I’ve been making one bet a week and life has never been simplerQuote:
Originally Posted by Kazoey
Got Pats -13 -105
It’s not newsworthy but it’s been money
Faves going to go 3-1 this weekend.
NBA:
Houston under 220
No Harden, no Mirotic, no Nene
Possibly more shortly
The last time you went Under a Bulls game the total was in the 240s. I am seriously considering betting the over in this game. But line is dropping so waiting.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Okay but the sharps are behind this under, too, FYIQuote:
Originally Posted by verminaardThe last time you went Under a Bulls game the total was in the 240s. I am seriously considering betting the over in this game. But line is dropping so waiting.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Fair enough. Noticing Bulls games have been very high scoring lately and betting overs has been one of the few things I have done right in the last couple weeks. Not 100%, but definitely well above 50%. Will going to that well one more time work? I dunno.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffOkay but the sharps are behind this under, too, FYIQuote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
Sacramento Over 199 -115 (199.5 -110 ok)
Tough to bet against hurts...dude just doesn't do any stupid shit to cost his team games...
Looked at the Chubb under and it was -200...
:lol2
Missed it so live bet it at 218.5. Got the other. Gl to us.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I was considering 3 unders today:
Milwaukee, which I actually posted, then erased before placing submit. (Didn't bet it either.) That's winning for sure.
Houston, which I posted and bet, and is a toss-up right now as we approach end of 1H.
Cleveland, which I did not post nor bet, and is a toss-up with slight favor to winning.
No lie -- I only backed off of Milwaukee because there was a huge spike in the line by about 2 points, from 214 to 216. Usually an under bettor would be happy to see that, but I wasn't because I felt this was indicative of someone knowing something, and I decided to skip it. Public betting was VERY heavy on over, because of the fast pace the two teams have been playing lately. (The public obviously wasn't causing my doubt, though.)
Sharps were on the under.
The spike in the line was in the final 45 minutes before the game. I might have to start ignoring these, as I'm noticing that sometimes it happens where Vegas will move the line in the final hour to ease a huge betting disparity, even if they lean a particular way in the expected result. (That is, they wanted more money to be on the over side, but not THAT much more.)
I will be watching this factor for another reason -- and that's to get an actual better line by waiting to bet something like this until the last minute.
Daly, what are your thoughts on this? I know you watch line movement a lot. Do you notice the same weird "final hour" line movement sometimes on lopsided betting sides?
Got the Bulls game at O220.
First half looked good, but 3rd Q both teams shooting bad, especially Bulls. Gonna need a big 4th. Meh.
Druff,
Whenever you get a chance PayPal the money Tellafriend was nice enough to donate to my gambling fund. Having a bad year overall, so any donation helps. Thanks again Tellafriend. Anytime you want to make an even money bet on a big underdog let me know, and I will probably accommodate you.
Terrible 3rd Q. Gonna need a 57 point 4th. Not impossible, but definitely not a favorite.
You can't be this dense. But way to rub it in. You killed it the whole way. You are a sports betting god.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
Honestly you were only a little ahead of pace, even at the game's best point.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
Admittedly it was ahead of pace for the entire 1H, but it's not like it was huge with scoring and then collapsed in 2H.
Anyway, as you said, it's only 57 points, which can easily happen. You're more in this than you think. But I agree you're definitely a dog at this point.
Bulls are ice cold. They are getting the shots. They just can't make them. It is what it is. That is why they are a bad team I guess.
Yeah. It was never a lock. Just went from a decent favorite to a dog (that is becoming bigger and bigger with every Bulls brick)Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffHonestly you were only a little ahead of pace, even at the game's best point.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
Admittedly it was ahead of pace for the entire 1H, but it's not like it was huge with scoring and then collapsed in 2H.
Anyway, as you said, it's only 57 points, which can easily happen. You're more in this than you think. But I agree you're definitely a dog at this point.
Need somebody to pull a Tanya Harding on Michel at half time. Where’s that cameraman that worked the OSU/Michigan game?
Only 42 points in the last 5:57, to make my Houston under lose by 3.
Unfuckingbelievable.
Even more unbelievable was that this game was NOT CLOSE in the 4th.
This wasn't due to intentional fouling.
There were only 5 points in the final 1:21!
How the fuck do 37 points roll in over slightly more than 4.5 minutes?
This has to be one of the bigger screw jobs I've had this year.
Markennan with the garbage 3 at the end of the clock for the over
I'll take it.
That was the least of the problems.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
Garbage 3s change total results all the time.
This was a shocking situation where 42 points scored in the final 5:56 in a game which was never close.
That almost never happens.
Bulls games are like that. If they are down big they just chuck it up. I remember we were in the same spot a few weeks ago in a Bull-Knicks game and the exact same thing happened.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Now my Sac over is starting like crap. I think I'll turn it off for awhile. In such a bad mood about this Houston one.
Just having a little fun. You didn't strike me as the sensitive type that would care overmuch. If you do, then I'll stop.Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendYou can't be this dense. But way to rub it in. You killed it the whole way. You are a sports betting god.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
Never trust a kicker. For fuck’s sake.