Probably nothing for today
Printable View
Probably nothing for today
I got my laugh for the day.
Yikes...Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerAndPoker
Re: the props conversation:
I get that some people can't bet these or are limited on outs or max bet amounts.
I don't bet a large volume nor dollar amounts. if I'm going to spend the time handicapping, I would rather it be something I find worthwhile in terms of my interest and having a greater opportunity to actually turn a profit. If I gave a shit about women's tennis and felt I could make money off of it, then I'd bet on that.
LOL fcking Math Nerds!!Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerAndPoker
Here is my #1 reason why all Dyke, Bulldaggers, and Jew Poker Players should be banned from all SportBooks.
To think u poker faggots call yourselves gamblers..
Ill be the one shoving that calculator up your fcking snatch Selbst while I drain your Coinbase wallet.. No it.
Can you do the math on that Carpet Muncher?
Well, escaped taking GS with the bad line.
Took OKC -1. Don't even really have an opinion on this game. Just want to watch it, so need to have some action.
Any games tonight that anyone here would feel pretty confident to put a wager on? I will be at one of the sports books tonight and feel like placing some bets.
There are a lot of reasons to back KC this weekend.
Since 1996, NFL teams favored by -7.5 or more in the wild card round are 15-2 SU and 14-3 ATS. (Jax,KC)
Since 2007, home teams in the Saturday wild-card games are 14-5-1 ATS.
No QB making their first playoff start as a road dog of 7+ has covered in the last 15 years.
Meh slebst has to be trolling there. I refuse to believe she doesn't know what a push is. She probably thinks she's buttering someone up to gamble with her but then will still lose anyway. If she was really unsure she'd text a friend and not put herself on blast on twitter. And the way she says "Degenerate Friends" is almost like she's trying to distance herself from gambling probably due to some new pussy she's trying to stuff telling her that all she cares about is gambling. So this is her attempt to prove to that new pussy that she doesn't know everything. I mean if she's playing 100/200 and she chops the blinds does each player get back 150?
Shouts out to her for her role in Billions though. But I have to admit her character still grossed me out no matter how open minded I tried to keep myself while watching. The bull dyke from Godless will hopefully win all the dyke category in all the awards shows. She managed to not gross me out at all.
Here we go again... after a day of zero picks.
Minnesota +3.5 -115 (Bovada -- -3 -110 ok, moneyline of +132 or better ok)
Dallas under 210.5
Memphis under 205.5 (205 ok)
Memphis +5 -115 (4.5 - 110 ok, moneyline +165 or better ok)
The sharps APPROVE of all 4 plays (though I decided upon them before seeing what the sharps liked).
They should approve of the Bucks -1Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Is that your pick?Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyThey should approve of the Bucks -1Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
From what I'm seeing, the sharps aren't on that one.
I considered that one but decided against it.
I have Bucks -1
I also Have over 210.5 in Dallas/Chicago game.
Both these teams are quietly playing very fast and up tempo lately. I can see this as a 120-115 type game.
Normally I would be happy that verminaard is against me, but he's actually been doing pretty well in NBA lately!
Too bad I didn't go under with Minnesota.... only 10 points scored in first 5 minutes!
I'm betting Minnesota snaps an 11-game losing streak in Boston TD Garden, but I think 12th time is the charm.
I half-spread/half-moneylined that one, as I also did for the Memphis game.
K. Porzingis under 30 points + rebounds -105 (5dimes)
D. Smith Jr over 14 points -125 (Bovada)
M. Gasol under 25.5 points + rebounds +100 (5dimes)
Ugh, both of these books have reduced my props to almost nothing.Quote:
Originally Posted by KidPresentable
Anyway....
That Milwaukee game is nuts. Starts out 5-5. Then Bucks run off 7 straight. Then Toronto runs off 14 straight, and it's 19-12 Toronto.
Wolves and Celtics neck-and-neck, so this one looks like it's going to be close.
Line on the Dallas total just went up a bit, so you can probably get 211.5 right now at the last minute.
had a sharp text me earlier and the text read MILWAUKEE BIG
Missed the play but will be looking out for live opps
This Dallas under isn't starting off well at all. Only possible bright side is that Dallas is getting beat hard, so scoring could slow down later if it stays that way.
Ugh, just like Detroit against Miami, Minnesota held close the whole game, and even led for much of it, and now is shitting the bed big time and down 7 in the 4th.
:gay3
Already lost the Minnesota game, as Minn lost by 7.
Dallas under had horrible 1Q (62 points) but good 2Q (48 points), so right now it's a toss-up, though favoring losing a little bit.
Glad I didn't go with the Milwaukee game, as they are now getting crushed by Toronto.
As good as the Porzingis bet has looked, the Gasol bet is off to a horrendous start as he has 5 and 4 halfway through the first. Smith still a toss up (5 points at half) and doesn’t help that he’s 0/3 on free throws.
Edit: and as soon as I hit enter Gasol hits another 3. Let’s hope for 2-1.
A low-scoring 4th and a last-minute junk 3 saved my Memphis bets, and turned an 0-4 day into a 2-2 day.
I'll take it.
Though I did bet half moneyline on Memphis, so it's actually a 1.5-2.5 day for me personally.
I'll still take it, given how everything was looking.
102-72-2 is now my record.
what a fucking ending! TYREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEKE!!!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Somehow went an undeserved 2-1 and almost luck boxed into a 3-0 day. I'll gladly take the suckout with Dennis Smith since I still won the Porzingis under with the Knicks going to OT.
11-2 +8.85
Rambling.
Odd times. Simplify it.
Falcons come in not really living up to their potential all year. With the exception of Matty making a bone headed play or two, this is a top 3 fantasy draft pick team at QB, RB, WR and WR2. Defense has been a bright spot. Offense sputtering under Sark.
Rams massively impressive and overachieved vs expectation in every aspect this year. Great young coach, maybe the best back in the league, good defense and the castoff WR from Buffalo doing well.
All things considered I cannot figure out why Atlanta is not favored by 1 or 2 in this spot-at least a pick em. Given their "bad" season they have only lost by 10 or more twice. They have played it close with things falling for or against them in the end. Not to mention the Rams are without a kicker.
I have put blinders on, ignored the media and continually funneled money into Atlanta +250 for the majority of the week. To my suprise it has moved to +210 and +5.5 today.
The Rams are a scary team to bet against, but do you find yourself saying "Man, I can't believe I bet Matt Ryan and the crappy Falcons vs the Rams!" or "I can't believe I bet Jared Goff, an undisciplined defense and a team with no kicker laying points in a playoff game!"?
Today all I have read about is this eventual Rams blowout and an easy meeting vs Foles in Philly. Meanwhile that line is ticking down. Tick. Tick. Tick.
kelce under/under imoQuote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22
Unless your betting these -150 props for fun, laying -150 or over on most props ( especially overs) is not a good play usually. Just to break even this has to win 60 % of the time.Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22
I guess there are spots to lay -150 but they are few and far between.
INT and TD etc different story. But for receptions and yds and completions when you start laying -140 and up it becomes more difficult to eek out any profits.
Pretty much all sports betting is for fun. Anyone who thinks they are finding long term +ev spots are typically wrongQuote:
Originally Posted by chinamaniacUnless your betting these -150 props for fun, laying -150 or over on most props ( especially overs) is not a good play usually. Just to break even this has to win 60 % of the time.Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22
I guess there are spots to lay -150 but they are few and far between.
INT and TD etc different story. But for receptions and yds and completions when you start laying -140 and up it becomes more difficult to eek out any profits.
But 100% these $20-50 props are for entertainment value mostly
Well if they are for fun then have at it.Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22Pretty much all sports betting is for fun. Anyone who thinks they are finding long term +ev spots are typically wrongQuote:
Originally Posted by chinamaniac
But 100% these $20-50 props are for entertainment value mostly
Just trying to lend a hand to you and some others on this board betting props as I have bet on thousands of props the past couple of years with tremendous , tremendous success...
I would agree that people trying to find +ev spots long term are typically wrong but let's be honest here, 99.9 % of sports bettors aren't even trying to find an edge and I would guess the 1 % who do try to find an edge , a high % of them cannot be honest with themselves and correct flaws in their methods or ways of thinking. I am not perfect by any means but the best trait I have when betting sports these days is trying to find flaws in why I am losing in spots. And one of the first things I learned betting high volume props is when you creep into that -140 plus thresh hold more often than not you are going into a black hole
best of luck
Last minute leans on B. Griffin over 13.5 rebounds + assists, D. Jordan over 15 rebounds, L. Williams over 23.5 points.
Those totals pretty much mirror their season averages. Warriors have not been great against big men and their front court is thin with Durant and West out (and unsure about Casspi). Also, without any competent guards aside from Lou Williams, Griffin figures to run the offense a decent amount. I hesitate to make these "official" as the Warriors just own the Clips and neither Jordan or Griffin have historically performed particularly well against the Dubs.
I guess fortuitous for me that I didn't end up making these plays as Griffin goes out in the 1st quarter with a concussion. Not to mention West and Casspi both end up playing.
For the rest of the day:
J. Wall under 21.5 points -115
T. Gibson under 12.5 points -115
Keep the prop bets coming Daly et al.
Not easy to get on them in England but some of them get through.
I back a lot of horses and rarely think to post them on here.
So I respect the Druff’s and others who not only post but keep a public record.
Good stuff.
Nobody will have time to bet this, most likely, but just threw a super last minute bet on Brooklyn.
Line on Bovada is +3.5 -115, moneyline +140 is also good (that's what I bet)
Some books have 2.5 now though.
Anyway just posting it here for record, I don't expect you guys will have time. More picks coming shortly.
Horford is out btw.
Houston under 211.5
Cleveland under 221.5
Also:
Milwaukee Under 214
What an absolutely fucking brutal game as a Chiefs fan. 5 straight home playoff losses turns into 6. Kelce hurt within a few yards of hitting my prop bets. Butker breaks the Chiefs record for FG in a season even though he didnt start until week 4. He misses. The bullshit forward progress turnover that wasnt. Andy Reid should be fired. Hes a great coach in the regular season but has proven for 30+ years he cant win in the playoffs. We are ditching Alex Smith and going with Mahomes. Might as well ship out Reid too. They wont, but I dont see why not.Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22
The only silver lining as a Chiefs fan is I knew this was going to happen. I bet Titans +7.5 earlier in the week and hoped KC would win small. About 5 mins before the game I had another feeling and fired again on the Tenn ML +350. I would have been fine losing those bets. I guess I can wipe up my tears with the couple hundo tonight.........
Love it when my last-minute-posted pick wins, but probably no one could bet it, and I bet the moneyline because I was too confident, and then the moneyline loses but the spread covers, so I score a win for my PFA record but lose the money and no one else wins.
:lol
Anyway, as usual, I'm going to lose the Cleveland pick. Can't win involving that team. They're my reverse Knicks, where I always win.
Houston under started out horribly, but it has improved due to a semi-low 2nd and low 3rd (so far).
Milwaukee kind of a toss-up right now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Why would it "count for your pfa record" but you admittedly didnt even bet it? Whats the point in funny record keeping?
Maybe I'll start posting fake picks that I dont even have money on