I also bet Arizona -4 vs Purdue earlier in the month. It's down to -3 -105 now, but the steam hasn't necessarily done well on the bowls so far this year, so just gonna roll with it.
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I also bet Arizona -4 vs Purdue earlier in the month. It's down to -3 -105 now, but the steam hasn't necessarily done well on the bowls so far this year, so just gonna roll with it.
Yes, it's a Trapper John MD line.Quote:
Originally Posted by KidPresentable
That, plus Brown is out, plus the Celtics have just been "off" lately.
As you saw, I went with Charlotte AND the under here.
This is why your streak is so impressive, none of these on paper seem easy especially on the face of the match ups. I like the Charlotte under. Dallas is 2-14 on the road. its at 4.5 on Bov. Not going to load up, except beating Toronto is a statement so Ill tail this one. Charlotte sucks, but Boston has started to slide. Still, another hard one. Small tail. GL to us. Thanks again for posting these.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Charlotte under has moved to 206.5 on most books, and Dallas has moved to 4.5.
These are actually the two I'm less confident about, as well. They were both in the "picks I'll regret if they lose" category, whereas the other two are ones where I'll say, "I still like what I did, regardless of results."
I just don't like posting "strength" of picks when I make them, because it will piss people off if they bet the "strong" one and it loses, and the weaker ones win. So I just post everything I feel is worth betting, without commentary of strength.
If you only want to grab two of the four picks, I feel best about Charlotte +1.5/+1 and Lakers -3.5.
FYI for the most part lately, the picks which I quietly feel are stronger have indeed done better lately.
If asked to rank the ones yesterday, for example, I would have classified the Denver and the Orlando under as "very strong", and the late Sacramento one as "marginal". Sure enough, the first two crushed the whole way, and the last one got stomped on.
However, I've also had some days (most notably last week's two 5-pick days where I went 4-1, one of which should have been 5-0 but got screwed by OT) where several of the picks were of the more marginal variety, but won easily anyway. So I'm not ready to tighten the standards to only posting "very strong" ones.
Also I've been betting the same amount on all picks.
I also am not ready to start skewing my actual results by betting different amounts, unless I REALLY love something.
I don't want to be the guy with a 60% sides record who is only breaking even. That would be heartbreaking.
In case you're wondering, the sharps are with me on the Dallas and Charlotte sides picks, and seem neutral on the Lakers and Charlotte under.
But FYI, in general the sharps have been in love with Dallas this year, with mixed results, so there's that.
Mizzou -3
Texas is a complete shit show. Players out for the draft, some suspended, etc. A 6-6 team trending down. Mizzou on the other hand seemingly figured things out, winning final 5 games. Drew Lock playing for a huge jump in draft stock.
Homer pick as well, but a big unit play for me
Add: D. Green (GSW) over 7.5 rebounds -125
Quote:
Originally Posted by KidPresentable
My book has 8.5 -110. I’m guessing that’s a no bet?
Question: Is it bad when your NBA team with a +1.5 line scores 1 point in the first 3:06 of the game?
I'm assuming yes.
Its not too bad if you have the under in the same gameQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
JUST DO WHATEVER KID PRESENTABLE GIFTS YOU NERDS
Charlotte off to a horrid start. That one's not winning. Under is winning slightly.
Dallas a toss-up.
Overall a lackluster start for me, different than yesterday where both early games were crushing immediately.
I would not bet at that line, no.Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22Quote:
Originally Posted by KidPresentable
My book has 8.5 -110. I’m guessing that’s a no bet?
Now watch me go 0-3 and lose 4 units.Quote:
Originally Posted by lol wow
Charlotte was 19 points down and I wrote it off. Then they had a massive run in the 3rd and got within 2. Then they fell 8-9 behind, then they got within 2 again.
They never caught Boston, and they ended up getting beat by 11. They never led.
However, my two "marginal" picks did fine -- the under covered by 13 points in the Charlotte game, and Dallas won by 4 outright.
So this is why I don't like to post strength of picks, because nothing is ever a lock in the NBA, and all the picks I post are ones which I feel are +EV. I feel that separating strong from marginal just needlessly raises variance when I feel all of them are +EV. And truthfully, there isn't a lot of difference in my strong and marginal picks.
Anyway, I'm 2-1 so far, and hopefully Lakers will bring me to 3-1.
Druff, you seem to play a decent number of short dogs (e.g., tonight's Charlotte pick). How frequently do you play those on the moneyline vs. the spread (or split the two)? Since an NBA game can't end in a tie, it seems like the 2-3% of the time an NBA game lands as a 1-point margin of victory for all NBA games, you would be better off just playing those dogs on the ML and either paying a shorter price or getting a +ML price.
The other day I did an OKC -125 moneyline instead of -2 -110.Quote:
Originally Posted by KidPresentable
Today when I placed the Charlotte +1.5 -115, the best I could get moneyline was -105, so I just didn't think that was worth it. I also thought there was a fair possibility the line would end up as a 1 pointer, as I thought there was a decent chance of it being close (as the line suggests, as well).
I just kinda play it by ear. In the long run I don't think it matters much either way.
for the sharp guys out there...buddy of mine who doesn't bet at all happened upon a local who does 2 team 6 pointers at -110...so question is this...with that kinda juice are wongs +EV? don't do them, but thought I read somewhere that most books nowadays are -120/-130 which makes them -EV...so didn't know if at -110 they were worth doing...
thanks...
-110 is VERY marginal. I think a tiny bit positive, but very close to 0 EV. That's why I quit teasers years ago. Can't find any real +EV prices anymore.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
But yeah, if someone is still doing teasers these days, they're best off doing Wong 6-pointers at -110.
From what I understand it isn't even clear whether Wong teasers were ever actually +EV. They ran really good for awhile in the early 2000s, and people were definitely making good money with them, to the point where many books discontinued them or raised the juice, but in recent years they haven't been winning at nearly the same clip. The fact there is so few NFL football games/year and so few Wong teaser games/week on average makes the sample size so small it is just hard to tell.
I'm unclear on wongs...are you just looking to tease -12.5/-8.5/-2.5 favs and 1.5 point dogs to clear the -7/-3/+3/+7 lines?Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
Boston College not covering was brutal. They were literally in position to win the game or lose by 3 (and push) for the entire game until the very end when they turned it over and Iowa got a TD and that was that.
Az/Pur game looks like it should go over, but it is starting to slow down so getting a little nervous.
Texas/Mizzou dunno.
My understanding is that it is any bet that crosses the 3 AND 7, either as favorite going down or underdog going up. I don't think a 12.5 teasing below 7 counts as a Wong.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenisI'm unclear on wongs...are you just looking to tease -13.5/-8.5/-2.5 favs and 1.5 point dogs to clear the -7/-3/+3/+7 lines?Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
Wow. Between the players dropping passes, kickers missing kicks, and refs doing shady stuff with spotting the ball and not calling penalties, getting very nervous about this Purdue game. Its like everyone decided at once to keep the score down.
Purdue was up 31-14 at halftime and has been hodoring around the whole 2nd half and Az finally takes a 35-31 lead with 3 minutes left in the game and now all of a sudden they are trying, but you are completely out of sync from not trying for 25 minutes.
Fuck you Purdue for costing me $$ by not even trying to score all 2nd half.
Edit: Got lucky, Purdue scored a TD on basically a Hail Mary.
Good thing Draymond got 8 boards through 3 quarters as he is almost certainly not playing at all in the 4th. Did not have this one being a 20+ point game going into the 4th.
Schroder the only loss and by 1 point (and after he had 4 at the half). Oh well.
7-1 +5.85
Lakers are like the worst team at closing out games.
If it's a close game in the 4th, you know they are going to choke.
2-2 day yesterday, and of course the two picks I said were best were the two that lost.
91-58-2 is now my record through 151 picks.
First off, yes, Wong teasers were very +EV provided that you were getting +100 on 2-teamers, +180 on 3-teamers, and +300 on 4-teamers.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenisI'm unclear on wongs...are you just looking to tease -12.5/-8.5/-2.5 favs and 1.5 point dogs to clear the -7/-3/+3/+7 lines?Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
Nowadays the only semi-viable line you can find is that -110 on 2-teamers, and that's VERY marginal.
There only only 6 lines which qualify as Wong teasers. They are:
-8.5
-8
-7.5
+1.5
+2
+2.5
That's it. Any other line should not be teased.
UGA -2.5...very confused...chubb-michel-swift (think that's their 3rd RBs name) and a top 5 D...I know you can argue that top 5 D thing since UGA didn't play anybody close to good on offense outside of AUB and MIZZ...fromms a frosh and I know they don't ask him to do shit and if they get down they may be fucked...I just don't see OU stopping that RB core, which really makes me want to take OU since this seems like such a slam dunk on UGAs end...need somebody to talk me outta this one...
Took Ok St -6.5.
After 1 V Tech drive I really regret it. Ok St has no clue how to defend the option game right now. Every play is 10+ yards.
Josh Jackson took a pretty big hit on a slide. Not gonna lie, I was hoping they were gonna take him out for concussion testing, but looks like he is ok. He is a big boy.
V Tech has no converted two 3rd and 10s this game. I am not sure I like Ok St. to win this game at this point, forget covering. Maybe I will make a live V Tech ML bet, and give myself a big fat 6.5 point polish middle.
Live bet V Tech -140
LOL. As soon as I live bet V Tech fumbles and loses it on the 1 inch line. Unreal. Probably a 90% chance I hit my Polish middle now.
I think I may have actually cursed V Tech with my live bet.
NBA, starting in about 40 min:
Orlando +4
One more word about Wong teasers.
Daly noted that games with lower totals are also better for Wong teasers (though you still need to stick to the 6 magic numbers I posted earlier).
That is 100% true.
Additionally, I feel you're better off staying away from backing terrible teams which tend to get blown out often.
My theory is that teasers most benefit teams which tend to stick much closer to the line. Teams which are all over the place (doing surprisingly well at times but then also getting blown out often) are of less value. This is because the teaser only gives you 6 points, so if it's a team which has a habit of getting blown out by 20 when the line is +2.5, they're not as good to tease.
Note that Daly disagrees with the above "don't tease awful teams" theory, but in my personal anecdotal experience doing teasers in the 2000s and early 2010s, those teams often screwed me, and my results improved a lot once I started refusing to tease them.
Stanford +3. Unless it is against USC, Stanford just seems to find a way to win these games most of the time, and even against USC they backdoor covered in the Championship game.
Mich St -2.
Well, looks like Orlando is going to win
:outright
Funny I was going to fire at least some of my bet on the +155 moneyline, because I really thought they were either winning outright or losing by more than 4, but I talked myself out of it because they are such a shitty team that I could totally see them blowing a lead at the end and losing by 1-3 points in the final minute.
Anyway, I went through different emotions. When they took an early 10 point lead, I regretted not doing a ML bet, but then when they fell behind in late 2Q, I said to myself, "See? I might indeed need those 4 points. Good thing I just did the +4."
Now they're up 13 in the 4th and obv I wish I bet the moneyline again.
But I'll take the 1-0 day just the same.
Hopefully some of you got in on this, as I only posted it 40 minutes in advance.
Look at the shitshow in Boston. Rockets are crushing them 46-24 WITHOUT Paul and Capela. Can you believe this? I mean, yeah there's no Brown, but this team has really turned to trash pretty quickly.
But Kyrie doesn't need Lebron. LOL
I sheeped you again, but didn't say anything cause didn't want to worry you. I am also debating going Philly EV in the night game (with no Lilliard)Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff