One last NBA pick (starts in 15 min):
Denver -5.5
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One last NBA pick (starts in 15 min):
Denver -5.5
Orlando game is 68-68 after 3.
So this is yet another under pick of mine which will win barring overtime, which is a real threat in a game that wasn't supposed to be close.
I feel like I'm living the NBA handicapping version of Groundhog Day.
An hour before kickoff, "3X more K-State money on account and 2X more K-State money over the counter." So sharps and public on K-State.Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22
The under 61 was a good play. I kinda tuned it out because I was focusing on the NBA, but looking at it right now (and ignoring the fact that it's on pace to win), that was actually the better bet to make than Kansas State -6.5.
Nothing against the sides bet, but I think the under was the actual smart play here.
Lock and ship the Orlando under, which was on pace to cover the entire way. 60 point 4th and it still covered by 9.
Denver off to a fairly good start, but those -5.5 lines are never safe until it's a blowout.
Well thanks to the scoring, I can get u61 live again if I want it in the Kansas State game.
But now I'm not sure if I do.
LOL
NBA going well so far. Denver has an 18 point lead at halftime (apologies to those who didn't see it on time... the Denver side was the 'Utah game' pick I said I was looking at earlier today).
Provided Denver doesn't shit the bed, I will have a guaranteed winning day regardless of what happens in the Sac game.
Probably going to hold my nose and take So Miss in the early game
Tomorrow but the play of the day is BC/Iowa under 45.5
Can't ever seem to close out a perfect day.
Sac under off to a bad start. Maybe scoring slows and it covers, but I'm not feeling it.
Isnt iowa a little too bipolar to fire the under here? They had offensive explosions vs iowa st (best D in big 12)penn st and ohio st but looked awful vs wisconsin. I dont know shit about BC but if their D isnt elite i could never fall in love with the under here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Didn’t see sac. The other 2. You dialed in. great job. Sac 222 now. Did a little live bet. Why not.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
to be fair OSU is biopolar as fuck too...Quote:
Originally Posted by varysIsnt iowa a little too bipolar to fire the under here? They had offensive explosions vs iowa st (best D in big 12)penn st and ohio st but looked awful vs wisconsin. I dont know shit about BC but if their D isnt elite i could never fall in love with the under here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
youll have to fact check me here, but BC always seems to have a very good to great D...their coach, narduzzi, was a DC before he became BCs HC (think I'm right on his name and prior job)...
I sheeped you on the Denver bet, but didn't say anything, cause didn't want to stress you out.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Wow, I Have been out all night and didn't follow 2nd half at all. Last time I saw this game was halftime and I thought I was dead. Nice to see KState came back and cover easily.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
Gonna need a really slow 4Q in the SAC/LAC game... hopefully it being a blow out will help.
Had a few leans on player props today and some things I liked, but didn't want to lay -150 (or worse) on them.
Tomorrow I am looking for the Unibrow and Cousins overs against Brooklyn. Lots of teams on back-to-backs tomorrow as well, so will have to look a little more closely at some of those matchups.
I told you what would happen and how it would happenQuote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22
:entertained
Today was a story of being totally right twice and totally wrong once.
Orlando under and Denver side were leading the whole way and both easily covered.
Sac under started off badly and never turned around, losing by 12.
Oh well... 2-1 is still respectable.
Now 89-55-2
Charham and verminaard, glad you were here in that 15 minute window to catch Denver.
Yeah. I was posting a football pick at the exact time you posted, so caught it and agreed.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Made all these bets weeks ago, so lines have probably moved. I don't even really like these over bets anymore cause this bowl season seems low scoring for whatever reason.
STRAIGHT BET
[237] BOSTON COLLEGE +3-110
[239] TOTAL o60½-105
(MISSOURI vrs TEXAS)
[275] TOTAL o66½-105
(PURDUE vrs ARIZONA U)
-I'll probably do a play on the morning game too, but haven't decided what just yet.
thought process on FL St vs S. Miss +14.5
FL St lost their coach. They also have several key defensive folks sitting out due to draft. Game nearer to S. Miss, so they should have decent crowd. S. Miss players are excited for the matchup, while FL St may be just going through the motions. S. Miss to barely cover
Counterpoint. S. Miss. recently played Tennessee, which is a very poor man's version of Florida State, and only scored 10 points.Quote:
Originally Posted by DRK Star
think DRK is right...trying to figure out the 'give a shit' factor of a bunch of 18-22 year old males...its what made CFB DFS the greatest thing in the world...Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaardCounterpoint. S. Miss. recently played Tennessee, which is a very poor man's version of Florida State, and only scored 10 points.Quote:
Originally Posted by DRK Star
Not sure Florida state is much better than Tennessee right now. Southern Miss also played Kentucky to a 7 point lossQuote:
Originally Posted by verminaardCounterpoint. S. Miss. recently played Tennessee, which is a very poor man's version of Florida State, and only scored 10 points.Quote:
Originally Posted by DRK Star
12/27/17 1:05pm $100.00 $315.00 Pending 1/3/18 1:00pm Chess Other Sports 881 Hikaru Nakamura +315* vs Magnus Carlsen
its speed chess and magnus is dropping games lately.
This smells like a Krypt bet.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
This Oshikuru Guy has to die
Magnus is chess savior
http://youtu.be/II-EFZOwXbo
well it looks like FSU doesn't give a shit...
2 personal fouls and a guy fielding a bouncing punt on the 2 yard line, going 5 yards deep into his end zone while returning said punt...cant wait to live bet this thing...
Am I missing something or is Boston -1 at Charlotte a #TRAPLINE? I know Brown is out and Morris is likely out as well, but they're playing the Hornets.
oh.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarThis smells like a Krypt bet.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
This Oshikuru Guy has to die
Magnus is chess savior
http://youtu.be/II-EFZOwXbo
http://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=1903174
carlsen lost as white to someone 300+ points lower than him yesterday.
you sure you dont want to fade a play at +315 on the #1 ranked bullet chess player?
its fine if not, magnus is -4xx for a reason, but valuetown is real.
This is a beautiful bet. An increasing rare instance where the public money is prolly wrong. Love to know the total write on this contest.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatineoh.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
http://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=1903174
carlsen lost as white to someone 300+ points lower than him yesterday.
you sure you dont want to fade a play at +315 on the #1 ranked bullet chess player?
its fine if not, magnus is -4xx for a reason, but valuetown is real.
While you won’t acknowledge the Jeremiah Tower story, Daly will not respond to the public favorite NFL story.
What are we now? 8 weeks of beating the book in NFL? Two weeks ago was the worst of them all for the books. Like HOF carnage.
Like mindlessly riding Pats & Vikes etc has been an ATM. Every time I see Druff laboring over what the “sharps” are doing I just smile.
I only bring this up because I’d like a hawt take on why this might be. Is the spread between the sharps and the average bettor with a smart phone and easy access to casual analytics becoming very marginal?
I don’t know why but I can spot an ATM as easily as anyone else. Sometimes you don’t ask why.
Has the NFL become such extreme crap that the mismatches cannot be priced in a way that won’t discourage all action?
We can talk about the idiot sharp action on the Browns as prima facie evidence.
You guys can keep risking pulling a groin with the heavy lifting but I have been abstaining from this thread until you guys show evidence that your head isn’t up your ass
I am not watching this game but it is 16-6 in 2nd Q. Are So Miss bettors really feeling confident right now? I don’t think I would be just looking at the score.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
I believe. What are the lock nfl picks for his week? I got destroyed in season O/Us which are going to pay out on Sunday, so I need a good week just to break even.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarThis is a beautiful bet. An increasing rare instance where the public money is prolly wrong. Love to know the total write on this contest.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
While you won’t acknowledge the Jeremiah Tower story, Daly will not respond to the public favorite NFL story.
What are we now? 8 weeks of beating the book in NFL? Two weeks ago was the worst of them all for the books. Like HOF carnage.
Like mindlessly riding Pats & Vikes etc has been an ATM. Every time I see Druff laboring over what the “sharps” are doing I just smile.
I only bring this up because I’d like a hawt take on why this might be. Is the spread between the sharps and the average bettor with a smart phone and easy access to casual analytics becoming very marginal?
I don’t know why but I can spot an ATM as easily as anyone else. Sometimes you don’t ask why.
Has the NFL become such extreme crap that the mismatches cannot be priced in a way that won’t discourage all action?
We can talk about the idiot sharp action on the Browns as prima facie evidence.
You guys can keep risking pulling a groin with the heavy lifting but I have been abstaining from this thread until you guys show evidence that your head isn’t up your ass
not jumping up and down, but I got it at 13.5/17.5 so I'm happy...if I'm wrong, wont be the first or last time...Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaardI am not watching this game but it is 16-6 in 2nd Q. Are So Miss bettors really feeling confident right now? I don’t think I would be just looking at the score.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
Under Buechele comps 22.5 -130
May be splitting time
Dig it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Bovada again has LOL "Texas QB" listed. Which actually makes me not want to play it there as I don't trust them to only grade it based on Buechele.
They won't - they will add all QB stats together.Quote:
Originally Posted by KidPresentableDig it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Bovada again has LOL "Texas QB" listed. Which actually makes me not want to play it there as I don't trust them to only grade it based on Buechele.
No brainer bet - take Buechele under 22.5 and Texas QB over 22.5. Semi free roll and you could hit both.
Lots of games today, but aside from the early two, I couldn't find anything good.
But we do have these:
Charlotte +1.5 -115 (+1 -110 ok)
Charlotte Under 206
Dallas +4 (no Oladipo)
Dallas may be OTB on your book right now. Betonline has it at the moment.
Boston has Brown out, Charlotte has Kidd-Gilchrist recovering from an injury (but he's very likely playing) and Williams with a sore finger (probably playing)
May post a totals pick for Memphis later, but holding off for now.
Daly -- what do you make of games/lines like the FSU game today where it starts at 17.5 and then close to game day starts plummeting to 12, yet the favorite still covers easily? What is happening there?
In the grand scheme of things better athletes showed up and played ( which has not been the case in games with multiple coaching changes and NFL prospects sitting)Quote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
D. Schroder (ATL) under 20 points -115 (5dimes/Bovada)
J. Tatum (BOS) over 14 points -130 (5dimes/Bovada)
Need to do a little more thinking about Cousins and Davis. The points numbers are pretty inflated for them.
One more... and it's actually not a total, even though I said that's what I was looking at:
Lakers -3.5
Another shitshow game, with Mike Conley, JaMychal Green, Lonzo Ball, Brook Lopez, and possibly Tyreke Evans and Brandon Ingram out.
However, Ingram will probably have a go at it today (on a minutes restriction). Evans is the key here, as he has right knee issues, which is the same knee which he had surgery. If he's out, or if he's not healthy enough to be himself, the Grizzlies are complete garbage. This is already a bad team (5-22 in their last 27), but with Evans out, they're really horrible. Reserve Brandan Wright will also be missing.
Honestly either way this is bad news for the Grizz, as a hurting Evans could arguably worse than him sitting out.
Still monitoring the total.