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Conference call will be a time share sales pitch. Might be a hootQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
i wanted a light position for the earnings report later, thats all. nothing of substance. just grossed out that its not even an option.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Trigger hit. I’m in. SP3170 that is. Buy puke buy
Got in just before the news. Lol
Ripcord pulled.
All 3 of our master threads converging. This is a political inflection point too.
spy is dropping but airline stocks are starting to tick up?
thanks kanye very cool
edit nm they just needed to catch up.
Google, Microsoft, Boeing and Amazon.
Bane of my existence rn
fun fact... im trying to withdraw the balance from my ally account and they are giving me a runaround.
not a good look.
Takes a while for everything to settleQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Looking good, buddy. Don't forget to buy more BYND and do it all on margin of course.Quote:
Originally Posted by OSAPalo almost at its 52 week low. Gonna be such a value buyQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
oh the funds were settled, they just kept coming up with weird excuses to push my withdraw back.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarTakes a while for everything to settleQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
I have a feeling theres gonna be a few train delays today from people throwing themselves on the tracks
I'm being genuine when I say I hope you get crushed and you sell everything in frustration, and then you watch as it all bounces back right after you sell.Quote:
Originally Posted by OSA
:entertainedQuote:
Originally Posted by abrown83Bad decision, market still has 10%+ to give.Quote:
Originally Posted by OSA
It’s been itching for a reason to correct.
I was ready to buy SHAK and PANW when it flatlined but it never did. I have to think tomorrow will be a good day cause theres so much value with these companies atm imoQuote:
Originally Posted by abrown83:entertainedQuote:
Originally Posted by abrown83
Quote:
Originally Posted by OSAI was ready to buy SHAK and PANW when it flatlined but it never did. I have to think tomorrow will be a good day cause theres so much value with these companies atm imoQuote:
Originally Posted by abrown83
did you even look at the graph i posted?
Quote:
Originally Posted by abrown83:entertainedQuote:
Originally Posted by abrown83
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7_K28GZHdo
Yea but what does it meanQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by OSA
did you even look at the graph i posted?
so go look up the spy for 2018. dip #2, in december was from 279 to 234.
why did the market dip 17% in december? because earnings were shite. totally organic, just one of those things. 17% because of something that everyone expects to happen now and again.
now. the spy peaked at 338 this month. right now its at 312.
thats 7%. so the market lost 17% because of The Usual Business. we just shed 7% because of a literal plague thats completely shut down the 2nd largest economy on the planet and hamstrung the most beating heart of our economy; the tech industry, who offshored virtually all our production to the economy that just got shut down in its tracks.
so why would it stop at 7%?
look at the dips. compare the shapes of the 3 dips. the first two dips have a lot in common. the third should, by logic, have a lot in common with the other two. because patterns.
heres the spy in late 2018:
2018-11-28 274.579987
2018-11-29 273.980011
2018-11-30 275.649994
2018-12-03 279.299988
2018-12-04 270.25
2018-12-06 269.839996
2018-12-07 263.570007
2018-12-10 264.070007
2018-12-11 264.130005
2018-12-12 265.459991
2018-12-13 265.369995
2018-12-14 260.470001
2018-12-17 255.360001
2018-12-18 255.080002
2018-12-19 251.259995
2018-12-20 247.169998
2018-12-21 240.699997
2018-12-24 234.339996
2018-12-26 246.179993
2018-12-27 248.070007
2018-12-28 247.75
2018-12-31 249.919998
heres the peak:
2018-12-03 279.299988
heres where it lost 7% off peak:
2018-12-06 269.839996
edit thats wrong its actually here:
2018-12-14 260.470001
but lets move on.
we are 2 days into this and we lost 7%'ish 3 days into the dec 2018 crash. that matches up. again, patterns matter.
so you buy tomorrow, lets see how that worked out in 2018:
2018-12-17 255.360001
a week later:
2018-12-24 234.339996
thats another 20 points. thats the other 10% of the crash basically.
if you cant provide a good reason for this current crash to somehow be less than 50% as bad as the december crash, you're buying securities at 10% of their predicted market value in 2 weeks.
scenario b) you buy them and the other half of the crash doesnt materialize. you got lucky. seems like a dangerous way to invest where the only plausible profitability come from getting lucky. obviously it could work tho.
but im guessing two things, based on math, patterns, and history:
1) we get another solid 10% of grief over the next 3 weeks.
2) vix hits mid 30s (questionable) and spy drops to 280 (much less questionable). at LEAST.
bonus prediction:
honestly i doubt this is even the correction. i think this is nothing but coronavirus impacting supply chain and freaking people the fuck out. i think the correction comes if trump loses in november and i think it comes within a year after that if he doesnt.
also please read this in ryan goslings voice:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbiDrzTd8fE
also apologies again for not unfucking some minor math points (day job / distractions) but hopefully my point is clear.
It’s possible, at some point we will have a bounce, then all the companies will guide down because Coronavirus and we take another blood bath.Quote:
Originally Posted by OSAI was ready to buy SHAK and PANW when it flatlined but it never did. I have to think tomorrow will be a good day cause theres so much value with these companies atm imoQuote:
Originally Posted by abrown83
Capiche. But Corona isnt gonna change in 3 weeks, itll only get worse, right? More infected ppl, more deaths worldwide.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
So who says this doesnt spiral out even more after the 10%?
So until then, shorting these things and the options market is the way to go?
VIX looks like free money right about now
the big problem i see with vix is the spread but maybe im just not doing it right, im actually more comfortable with puts on spy right now because the gap is like 2 points so i know i can dump without much slippage if things reverse. with vix im basically betting that my contract expires in the money, otherwise the gap can be like 40% of the ask price.
note that if anyone here says what i just typed is fundamentally wrong, believe them, im just going on personal observation/experience.
but yeah i think this could get a lot worse, because of course we havent really seen a lot of earnings reports directly impacted by china being offline. that shit ramped up like weeks ago. so until we start seeing q1 numbers, its all just ambient noise.
i saw someone say tsla could easily drop to 500 before shit gets back on the rails and honestly it kinda made sense to me.
I'm down about 9-10% on Google, Amazon, Boeing and Microsoft. I would rather not sell now and take the hit, but rather dollar cost average it and reup once it flat-lines. Or buy volatility to hedge. But your saying that when I sell on RH, I might not get the asking price that its currently trading at. That's a whole issue in itself.
Or do you or anyone else have an opinion.
Quote:
Originally Posted by OSA
they arent decaying assets, you can just hold onto them until the market recovers. but its going to get worse.
caveat if bernie gets elected they are going to be decaying assets.
also and this is just a personal thing i like to keep my bankroll in play. its not a huge roll so im trying to chip it up.
uh oh.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tec...ell-production
Tesla and Panasonic are scrapping their partnership in producing solar cells after years of struggling to ramp up output at the Gigafactory 2 in upstate New York.
wowwwww
https://www.wivb.com/news/more-forme...falo-facility/
like if you connect the dots, buffalo does not look good here.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Given the fact that Tesla wants workers to put job over everything, and the fact that a big portion of African Americans are "culturally speaking" not willing to do such things, I can see how a culture of favoritism might form there.
Quote:
Originally Posted by OSAQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Given the fact that Tesla wants workers to put job over everything, and the fact that a big portion of African Americans are "culturally speaking" not willing to do such things, I can see how a culture of favoritism might form there.
i reallllllllly fucking hate to say it but when i read this guy thought it was basically racist that he got fired for 'excessive phone use' i knew elon would be putting up with exactly none of this bullshit.
That's right. Elon aint paying these niggas to sit at their desk and play candy crush. If you gonna do that, at least do it smart and sit on the shitter.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by OSA
i reallllllllly fucking hate to say it but when i read this guy thought it was basically racist that he got fired for 'excessive phone use' i knew elon would be putting up with exactly none of this bullshit.
Comments
OSA: I lost close to 3% of my port. What you talking bou
Have you since gained a better understanding of what i'm talking bout?
checked the market at 4:30am this morning and it seemed my sky is falling thesis was dead on the money.
things stabilized a lot since then but if i had to guess, id say things continue their march towards oblivion, as absolutely nothing has impacted the factors that caused this dip. people are going to poke their heads out of their bunkers to see if its safe and regret it. maybe not today but friday is probably going to harvest souls and dreams and turn them into its slaves in the afterlife.
if i had to guess, id say things are just kinda floating on repo euphoria right now.
i do think tsla could/should catch retarded today and possibly crash.
Took SHAK at 63.93 and NVDA at 270
Whatever, I do what I want.
Longer term NVDA will be a good play.Quote:
Originally Posted by OSA
Short term I'm betting the market is heading downwards.
We are roughly back to where we were before the CDC announcement yesterday afternoon
Before that announcement we were already down 450-500’ish.
Whatever you are feeling you’re wrong.
/ThreadQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Literally 30 minutes later it’s gone.
:yesQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
If we could just go into the red today my feelings won't be hurt that you didn't like them.
I’m just taking the money here.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
They have to make a market. Gotta leave some reason to buy tomorrow. A little hope.
Nice hand sir.
Who needs sports?
Took 400 or the 500 point swing btw. Had a pretty good read this past week.
Go ahead and hate.
Work/kid busy no time for sports. Plus the Leafs are infuriating me with their Jekyll/Hyde performances + lack of deadline movement.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarI’m just taking the money here.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
They have to make a market. Gotta leave some reason to buy tomorrow. A little hope.
Nice hand sir.
Who needs sports?
A lot of people are going to get punished on stocks.
something im meditating on this evening.