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5 and 3 yesterday so slowing down a bit, still slight profit. I needed SF to pound the Brewers and make the RL to make real $ yesterday. Too bad.
Onward
ML Win: Miami, SF, Boston, Toronto, Cincy and LAA
Overs: Miaimi/SD 8.5, Rangers/As over 8, Seattle/TB over 8
Detroit and WSox have been hitting the over hard, line at 8.5 says Sale will slow it down some. Sale's last outing not so good so I am tempted with the over again.
Manny Machado hits a two run blast is the 1st inning off a Price fastball and I am looking like a damn genius. Look at the wicked smaht guy.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
I'm not going to try and tell you that I've put a lot of deep thought into it, I'm just betting what's working. Scoring is down in most games Price is on the hill. I think some is it is just some basic thinking by sox players. If I'm JBJ and I see Price out on the hill I don't feel the need to have to go 3-4 at the plate that night to win. If I see Clay Bucholz I know 2-4 ain't going to get it done. But like I said this isn't a psych play, keep it to what's working.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Running against the crowd in the face of two number one starters really is the important thing. Gonna admit to a bit of hubris.
Price gave up another (solo) bomb that left Fenway park entirely. Bases loaded in second for Sox --> resulted in zip.
Price won with a fucking great change up.
I don't subscribe to the theory that players nap it out at the plate when an ace hits the mound. No one wants to strike out. It's a personal humiliation in a selfish sport. Maybe the manager does. Shaw is 1-17 and Hanley Ramirez is absolutely lost with his stance and swing. This affects pitches Ortiz gets and it snowballs.
A smartass bet that looks needless now but I am guilty of that from time to time. I fall in love with an idea and just can't leave it alone.
Gonna be a little cautious on Sawks overs for now.
Looking at the menu right now. First thing that grabs me is u9.5 EV for Det/CWS. Thinking about Charhams comment. Gotta look up VMar.
My two new binkys Dodgers & Cubs don't grab me tonight.
I am a Daly buttmunch.
I just bet for fun and hopefully a profit. I really don't watch a lot of games. As I'm out and about I listen with MLB package on Internet in the car or catch late innings when I get home. It's a way to pass the summer.
But it's a game like any other and it's fun to try to learn the edges.
I gotta say that Daly's throw away lines are usually gold. He crystallizes ideas that exist somewhere in the back of your brain in a few words. I gotta start saving them.
Even .500 works when you got dogs on the menu.
That line reads like a damn haiku. Became a bit emotional. I need a moment.
I tilt bet 1k on the Giants/Brewers under 5.5 yesterday after the third inning when score was 0-0, luckily ended up covering by 1/2 a point. I like the Tigers under too but don't really want to bet too much at under 9, factoring in the high probability that Ian Kinsler is on roids and they've been slugging hard in Detroit. Sale has been struggling for a few games but he's a proven winner over big big samples, so I think the under is still a good bet based on the "regression to the mean" argument.
I've also been meaning to export all the baseball reference and basketball reference data into my R software to do some fun statistical analysis, but first have to think about what patterns will be the most helpful in informing my degenerate sports betting habits.
Ichiro also just recorded his 4,256th hit and now just needs 22 more MLB hits to join the 3,000 hit club. I bet Pete Rose is not very impressed.
France today was the fishiest bet I've made in a while. Everyone in the world was on France today, terrible
In for 1k now that the line moved back to 9.5, used my one time yesterday so need two timesQuote:
Originally Posted by Sol
The automatic double hex gets a winner after I posted at the 88 minute or some Shit, Ill take itQuote:
Originally Posted by Spookygook
Watching all day for that 9.5 which you knew was coming.Quote:
Originally Posted by SolIn for 1k now that the line moved back to 9.5, used my one time yesterday so need two timesQuote:
Originally Posted by Sol
1. BET#: 496771875
STRAIGHT WAGER 06/15/16 17:14 EDT
Bet $ 330.00 to win $ 300.00 Result: Pending
Detroit Tigers M Pelfrey vs Chicago White Sox C Sale 06/15/16 20:10 EDT Under 9.5 (-110)
Brilliant bet Sol.
Brilliance fueled by degeneracyQuote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarWatching all day for that 9.5 which you knew was coming.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sol
1. BET#: 496771875
STRAIGHT WAGER 06/15/16 17:14 EDT
Bet $ 330.00 to win $ 300.00 Result: Pending
Detroit Tigers M Pelfrey vs Chicago White Sox C Sale 06/15/16 20:10 EDT Under 9.5 (-110)
Brilliant bet Sol.
I also got over 7.5 -110 in the Seattle/TB game, line doesn't seem like it'll get better from here so it's trigger time
A fellow degen hit me with this today. Only 1R through 2 but it's still early.
Sawks 13-1-1 O/U (12-1-1 O/U scoring > 2) at night with a total ≥ 9.
Wright & his knuckleball. Machado & Davis were just up. They were swinging looking back at the catcher/umpire and laughing. HOFQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
I should be able to parse this but I'll admit I can't.
Translation please
My immediate family is in jeopardy of getting hit by a flying object Sol.
Looks at calander tomorrow, sees Price isn't pitching.....
Lol the bet looks around breakeven going into the bottom of the 6th. Haven't really watched the game yet cuz I was busy sweating the Seattle Rays game, they've been stranding like a million baserunners every inning.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarWright & his knuckleball. Machado & Davis were just up. They were swinging looking back at the catcher/umpire and laughing. HOFQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
I should be able to parse this but I'll admit I can't.
Translation please
My immediate family is in jeopardy of getting hit by a flying object Sol.
Siqq hold in the Tigers game. Sale pitched well against that Tigers offense. Think we got like a 16 vs dealer ace in a shitty count situation in the Mariners/Rays game, but I've never bet 1k on a single blackjack hand before. Rooting for 3 outs in the bottom of 12th so that team dice gets fresh 6 outs to work with.Quote:
Originally Posted by SolLol the bet looks around breakeven going into the bottom of the 6th. Haven't really watched the game yet cuz I was busy sweating the Seattle Rays game, they've been stranding like a million baserunners every inning.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
You split the 10's you got on the Det/CWS... and bet equal amounts on both games?Quote:
Originally Posted by SolSiqq hold in the Tigers game. Sale pitched well against that Tigers offense. Think we got like a 16 vs dealer ace in a shitty count situation in the Mariners/Rays game, but I've never bet 1k on a single blackjack hand before. Rooting for 3 outs in the bottom of 12th so that team dice gets fresh 6 outs to work with.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sol
Lotta runs but we never expected 3-2. Admit to a little stress though seeing a player named Buck pitch to a guy named Shuck and then it's WTF. Lol, Tigers bull pen.
The deeper we go with Mariners/Rays obv the more likely a multi run implosion.
Lmao yeah I sometimes split 10s in vegas when I'm pounded out, even when I realize that quitting and calling up a hooker is probably the better play. But I'm inclined to say split aces looking at the LOB stats.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarYou split the 10's you got on the Det/CWS... and bet equal amounts on both games?Quote:
Originally Posted by Sol
Lotta runs but we never expected 3-2. Admit to a little stress though seeing a player named Buck pitch to a guy named Shuck and then it's WTF. Lol, Tigers bull pen.
The deeper we go with Mariners/Rays obv the more likely a multi run implosion.
I did see Derek Holland scrubbing it hard with 1 out in the 4th and bet 1/2 unit on the over 7.5 @ +100, will see how it goes.
Nationals -150 tomorrow is a fine bet. Normally I wouldn't touch team that go east to west but the Nationals seem to handle it well.
Overnight total on the Sawks is 10. I admit to already punching the ticket but If I would have thought about it for more than .7 seconds id have waited till tomorrow. No way it touches 10.5 I don't think and there is a shot you can buy at 9.5 -120 at some point.