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not that it needs to be said, but David Lee and LeBron James are two different animals.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
What are you talking about?Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
Most good players last longer than that.
I'm not talking about the average scrub who is a career reserve and is out of the league by age 31.
Lebron, for example, is just about to turn 33, and he is very far from retirement.
I am enjoying this 3rd Q immensely so far.
LOL. You are cherry picking arguably the best player who ever played and who (so far) has had the best longevity and health who has ever played as your example? Talk about the exception proving the rule.Quote:
Originally Posted by HoodedNnot that it needs to be said, but David Lee and LeBron James are two different animals.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I would be surprised if 5% of 1st round draft picks lasted until age 34.
Yeah but still, it's weird given that he was one of the top 3 players on a very good 2013-14 Warriors team, and now he's out of the NBA.Quote:
Originally Posted by HoodedNnot that it needs to be said, but David Lee and LeBron James are two different animals.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Your brutal honesty and ability to take a joke is good for the thread.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
How’d you do today? No mortal can track all that action.
Great game, huh?
The final two NBA games (Chicago/Phoenix, Denver/Lakers) saw a lot of sharp money on both Chicago and Lakers.
Well, Chicago once again shit the bed, but the Lakers are absolutely destroying Denver.
I didn't consider Chicago because they are awful and I'm done backing them, but the Lakers are somewhat less awful, and I was leaning that way, but they've been such a mess lately that I couldn't pull the trigger. Then I considered the over/under in the Lakers game and couldn't even come up with which way to bet, so that was out the window.
Anyway kinda regretting not firing on Lakers because part of me really thought they were winning this one outright.
I took Pheonix because of the logic that Chicago had a real big win their last game, and bad teams tend to shit the bed after a big win.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I probably should have taken the Lakers. They were coming off an embarrassing loss and Denver was coming off a monster win. So the narrative made sense, but I thought Denver would score 114 regardless of what else happened so I bet that. I actually only need 21 points in the last 7 minutes of garbage time to hit. it is possible. Just depends on if the scrubs keep playing fast or if they shut it down.
Lost $1000 yesterday and won $600 today when all was said and done, so lost but not as bad as could have been I guess. The Browns losing the cover on a defensive TD at the end of the game was especially brutal. 2nd time this year that has happened to me.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarYour brutal honesty and ability to take a joke is good for the thread.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
How’d you do today? No mortal can track all that action.
Great game, huh?
I see Seattle is a 1.5 pt DOG tomorrow. I wonder when was the last time Seattle was a dog at home? I wanna say the year they won the Super Bowl they were a small dogs to the Patriots in a prime time game and beat them and that was kind of their coming out party, and that was the last time I can remember and there is a good chance that memory is false.
I haven’t seen Seattle this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
The narrative is injuries. Secondary and offensive line (which sucks anyway) left tackle, i think. Something like that.
never laid eyes on Atlanta either.
I worry Seattle’s home field might affect Ryan the same way Minneapolis got to Goff.
Atlanta’s coaching staff blows though.
Nevertheless, I bought early, expecting Seattle money. Nobody believed in Atlanta before they beat Dallas. They still don’t. So I thought I was buying value somehow.
MOBILE - FOOTBALL - NFL - 475 ATLANTA FALCONS +2½ -105 FOR GAME
We are seeing some + 1
I have a hole in my game. What is the significance of a line crossing zero? Why is it more significant than an equivalent delta from any other number? Walk me through how the book thinks about this.
TIA
It never fails on this site.
I say over it goes goes under Lobster Mac style.. 108 on a mother fcing cop...
Boys and Whores Rosa is making this happen..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6kmmJUw_8qA
Handicap, Daly, Monsterj, any other financial/wagering wonks
What is the correlation between
contract close (game outcome) vs contract open (opening line)
vs
contract close (game outcome) vs contract end (closing line)
Which would have a tighter correlation?
Is momentum wrong independent of news (injury/weather rare)?
Aware of any long term study on this?
Interesting to challenge the conventional thinking about the value of the closing line.
What is the worth of gaming value simply from momentum if you can’t arbitrage cause sportsbetting vig is too high?
Maybe this is pointless late night drinking and thinking
maybe I'm looking at this completely wrong, but wouldn't the correlation not be so significant given that the best bettors only hit 60ish% of the time...so while they can drive a line a certain way, they're not gonna be right at that great a % of the time for the results to mean anything...Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
of course that above paragraph coulda been good ol' caesars mental masturbation for ya...gotta kick that...
Thanks for playing. I hear the slim success argument amongst even the best
The “sharps” or syndicates will fluff a pinnacle early morning line the wrong way on light money. Call that phony momentum. Vegas and the rest will mimic those lines mid morning. Then they’ll (syndicate) take the other side.
Fake momentum. Essentially they push back to open.
I just have a hunch I wouldn’t be surprised if the open is “righter” than the momentum
This is a financial trading snapshot. Lol, daytrading stupid momo
Game outcome is contract termination. Whatever.
I need help. I should be surfing porn
I know an agent that has a new guy that is crushing it. First week he's up small with a few bets but since Friday he is 34-2-10. Only about 1/3 of his bets are NFL everything else is college bball and football. He's only lost 2 college plays the other 8 loses were NFL.
Whats the biggest heater you have seen? How many wins in a row or best record over a week or month?
WormholeQuote:
Originally Posted by Goodpoop
Wormhole v2
TMMLK NFL 2015?
Verminaard (betting against him)
After my Eagles ML bet won, I am up to $42.77 from just a measly $2.65. Here is where I try to double up or as close to it as possible.
Parlay $42.77 $29.28
Basketball - 519 Boston Celtics -275 for Game
Basketball - 518 San Antonio Spurs -425 for Game
Here to riding this great streak.
I have lost 15 bets in a row, which is just as hard as winning 15 in a row.Quote:
Originally Posted by Goodpoop
TY for pick. Took Mavs +230 and Mavs +6.5. $300 each. Also taking under 199.5 for $500Quote:
Originally Posted by OSA
I love the under in this game as well big and mavs small...maybe the under 6 goals Leafs/coyotes and I’m trying to find a reason to not hammer the over 46 in the MNF gameQuote:
Originally Posted by PLOLTY for pick. Took Mavs +230 and Mavs +6.5. $300 each. Also taking under 199.5 for $500Quote:
Originally Posted by OSA
Im taking Atl -1 1/2 tonight.
really not a big fan of 5 team parlays but oh well
Nov 20, 2017 06:20 PM Parlay $150.00 $887.46
Basketball - 530 Syracuse -450 for Game
Basketball - 582 NC Greensboro -375 for Game
Hockey - 51 Arizona Coyotes/Toronto Maple Leafs under 6 -105 for Game
Soccer - 17940 Huracan/Velez Sarsfield over 2 -120 for Game
Tennis - 85024 Peterson, Rebecca -403 for Match
NFL O46
Hornets/wolves O213
2 picks for the 4pm PST NBA games:
Detroit +3 -115 (-110 on Bovada for square accts right now)
Indiana Under 220
California ML +2700
(6) Wichita St
2nd qtr
61 Calif
47 Wichita
Dream on outright
If there was a prize for guessing line movement regardless of final scores I’d be king.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mintjewlips
11/19/2017 6:41:40 PM
DESCRIPTION:
MOBILE - FOOTBALL - NFL - 107 MINNESOTA VIKINGS PK -110 FOR GAME
Now -3
11/18/2017 1:33:39 PM
DESCRIPTION:
MOBILE - FOOTBALL - NFL - 475 ATLANTA FALCONS +2½ -105 FOR GAME
Now -1 with juice
It’s been cashing so we will see. Overwhelmingly, favorites have been cashing so that explains my luck.
He already has it, sadly.Quote:
Sanlmar: Brent Beckley wants your business
But Bovada had better lines in these 2 games.
It's funny because I got a late start analyzing these games and was under the gun to get the 4pm picks out. I chose these two in the first 2 games I looked at, saw the long schedule, and though I might have a verminaard 9-pick day.
Then, one by one, I couldn't decide on anything else. No other sides. No other totals.
So it's just these two.
Sharp money also went on my 2 picks, though in my own defense, the sharp money on the Indiana under came in AFTER I posted it here on PFA about 30 minutes ago, so maybe the NBA betting world has taken notice of me.
Okay, maybe not.
The following also had sharp money but I decided not to touch them:
Utah
Utah under
Memphis
Atlanta
Dallas
So if I wanted to just bet with the sharps, I could have done those 5 as well, but honestly I don't really have enough faith in any of those to cover.
I think Atlanta moved because Julio Jones is now slated to play.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarIf there was a prize for guessing line movement regardless of final scores I’d be king.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mintjewlips
11/19/2017 6:41:40 PM
DESCRIPTION:
MOBILE - FOOTBALL - NFL - 107 MINNESOTA VIKINGS PK -110 FOR GAME
Now -3
11/18/2017 1:33:39 PM
DESCRIPTION:
MOBILE - FOOTBALL - NFL - 475 ATLANTA FALCONS +2½ -105 FOR GAME
Now -1 with juice
It’s been cashing so we will see. Overwhelmingly, favorites have been cashing so that explains my luck.
Minnesota moved because everyone is betting them.
You gotta be strapped properly to play like the Verminator
Is that your house?
Do you really have 5 TVs there?
Do you have 5 cable boxes in that room?
Wow
Detroit pick is a disaster, though I suppose Cleveland can shit the bed in epic fashion. But what I've noticed with Cleveland is that their problem is starting off poorly. If they start off well, they tend to be okay. I'm saying this anecdotally. I haven't crunched those numbers.
Indiana under isn't turning out too well, either, but it's still early, and you know how those things can change.
The good thing about Under 220 type picks is that you can get healthy quickly if the scoring goes through a few-minute drought, because it requires 4.58 points per minute to keep up.
In mid-game hindsight:
Utah under was actually a good bet, and I shouldn't have talked myself out of it. I looked at that one pretty hard.
Never considered backing Utah itself, though, as they are terrible and very tough to handicap.
Detroit pick was a disaster, though I don't really regret it because Cleveland has been so bad, and this game was a perfect example of one where they would crap the bed. But they showed up tonight.
Atlanta +9 too tempting but I just don't think that team is going to stay competitive on the road, even with the Spurs which are a very different team without Kawhi Leonard. I mean, I can see them covering, but I can't pull the trigger.
I haven't done this in awhile, and I've only made two in-game bets this year, going 1-1.
But I might fire Detroit again at the half if they're down more than 20 and I like the line.
Indiana under starting to look better.
Two halftime bets:
Detroit -5.5 2H (essentially Detroit +21.5 for the game)
Utah Under 108 2H (essentially under 191 for game)
I'm 0-1 on halftime bets this year and 1-0 in live betting though, so keep that in mind.
@MGMRaceSports Scott Shelton on ATL-SEA: Just took $30K bet on Falcons -1, moved line to ATL -1.5. Followed by $10K two-team parlay of ATL -1.5 and Over 46. Book needs Seahawks outright!
Seattle will win for the books. Both public + sharps on ATL
:outright
Well I suck at halftime betting.
0-2 today, 0-3 overall. Think I'm giving up on that. Frustratingly the Utah under halftime one had its scoring stop right after it beat my bet, so I only lost by 2.
My full game picks today will go 1-1 provided Indiana stays out of OT.
That is ok Druff. I suck st halftime and live betting too.
I bet under in the Dallas and Sacramento games fWIW.
If Sea wants to win they gotta ditch the Graham matchup and go for Baldwin, Richardson.
Sea def will not give up alot of points in the 2nd half. Live bet seems legit now
Celts are gonna cost me. Fucking piece of shit Boston team. Figures