Trump is going for the 3rd and final death blow before he leaves office
WWIII
Three US Navy aircraft carriers are patrolling the Pacific Ocean at the same time. And China's not happy
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/15/asia/...cli/index.html
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Trump is going for the 3rd and final death blow before he leaves office
WWIII
Three US Navy aircraft carriers are patrolling the Pacific Ocean at the same time. And China's not happy
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/15/asia/...cli/index.html
I don't give a fuck if China's happy or not. The less happy China is the more happy I am. China is fucking EVIL. By far the biggest threat to the civilized world today. China must be contained and if they want to start shit the US should have the balls to finish it.Quote:
Originally Posted by big dick
supreme court held that trans people are protected by the civil rights act in a 6-3 decision.
dish is one step closer to tasting his first tranny dick.
Thank you Gorsuch! Welcome to the resistance.Quote:
Originally Posted by blake
'first'
gotta love Bernie
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qxIYChZ5tPo
“A well-placed VOA employee said there are internal discussions about a sizable shakeup coming to the agency that may include former White House official and conservative radio host Sebastian Gorka taking on a leadership position.”
im sure that will solve everything.
Give it to me.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
I will do a 9-hour show each day and make sure there's a call to listen line in each country.
this is like the chef's kiss right here for the case of fucking dumbass...
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elect...cid=spartanntp
WASHINGTON (AP) — More than four dozen progressive groups have signed a letter to presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s campaign criticizing his police reform proposals and warning that if he doesn’t adopt more progressive policies he risks losing black voters — and the election — this fall.
“You cannot win the election without the enthusiastic support of Black voters, and how you act in this moment of crisis will play a big role in determining how Black voters -- and all voters concerned with racial justice -- respond to your candidacy. A “return to normalcy” will not suffice, the letter reads.
so their end game, if they don't get what they want, is to have trump re-elected who im sure they all despise...makes perfect sense...
for those of you giving dish a bunch of shit for his trump bets, you might have to overcome this in order to win in November...tough proposition...
I believe China and NK jam VOA broadcasts, they're the people who really need to hear it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffGive it to me.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
I will do a 9-hour show each day and make sure there's a call to listen line in each country.
I despise Trump but I think he is going to win. Voter suppression and cheating will be enough to squeak it out in the Electoral College.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter SobchakI despise Trump but I think he is going to win. Voter suppression and cheating will be enough to squeak it out in the Electoral College.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
why didnt u say "and russia" this time u absolute fkn retard
Very true, Russia will play a part. Sort of included in cheating but worth its own mention.Quote:
Originally Posted by thesidedishQuote:
Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak
why didnt u say "and russia" this time u absolute fkn retard
trump just getting absolutely eviscerated in polls lately and i'm not sure why. people tend to think the economy is on the upswing and no one even cares about the coronavirus.
this doesn't make much sense.
the polls are so out of whack i don't believe them.
and this is partly from trump's favorite pollster, rasmussen
from tucker carlson last night:
Fox News’ Tucker Carlson opened his show Monday night warning viewers, “Black Lives Matter is now more popular than the President of the United States.”
“And not slightly more popular than the president,” Carlson said. “Much more popular.”
He brought up a Rasmussen survey finding 62 percent of people have a favorable opinion of Black Lives Matter, compared to Trump’s approval rating of 43 percent.
ill pose this question since im looking at this from the pure betting angle...Quote:
Originally Posted by blake
what has changed from 2016 in regards to polling? the vast majority were surprised that trump won because Hillary was polling well...dissecting this post mortem, it seemed like that people who were voting for trump kept their mouths shut because they didn't want to have to defend why they were voting for him in the first place, keeping his polling numbers down...
fast forward to 2020...I would say the hate for trump is even worse than in 2016, so again why are people voting for him going to say they are? did he really lose that much of his voting base in 4 years?
just seems like the media playing up the 'trump is gonna get his ass kicked angle, look how well biden is doing!!!!' because it's obvious what most want to happen...the swing states might give the better opportunity to place bets on trump, but if the media is gonna drive his price to +150 in the national, I mean im gonna be hard pressed not to fire on that because it just seems eerily similar to 2016...
Polling right up to election day had Hillary at 80-something percent, which as gamblers we should all understand means that Trump still wins about 1 in every 6 times. It does not mean the polls were wrong then and it doesn't mean the polls are wrong now. Even if Biden were 99% to win Trump would still win 1% of the time. (Numbers made up for illustration purposes.)Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenisill pose this question since im looking at this from the pure betting angle...Quote:
Originally Posted by blake
what has changed from 2016 in regards to polling? the vast majority were surprised that trump won because Hillary was polling well...dissecting this post mortem, it seemed like that people who were voting for trump kept their mouths shut because they didn't want to have to defend why they were voting for him in the first place, keeping his polling numbers down...
fast forward to 2020...I would say the hate for trump is even worse than in 2016, so again why are people voting for him going to say they are? did he really lose that much of his voting base in 4 years?
just seems like the media playing up the 'trump is gonna get his ass kicked angle, look how well biden is doing!!!!' because it's obvious what most want to happen...the swing states might give the better opportunity to place bets on trump, but if the media is gonna drive his price to +150 in the national, I mean im gonna be hard pressed not to fire on that because it just seems eerily similar to 2016...
That said, I think Trump is going to win so I wholeheartedly endorse you betting on Trump wherever you find the value.
The aggregation of recent polls indicates that Trump's approval rating is at 40-41% and disapproval at 55%. No incumbent has ever been re-elected with less than 48% approval. So he will win by cheating and because the Electoral College is ridiculous, and with Russia's help of course.
BET THE FARM EVERYONE
if i was conspiratorially minded id say they wanted to lure the left into a false sense of security.
Make sure to bet on *checks notes* Trump +115
Absolutely. They will pull every kind of trick possible to prevent people from voting in key swing states. Including under the guise of simple incompetence. Look at Georgia a few weeks ago. Sure you can vote if you stand in line for 6 hours. LOL "democracy" my ass. If that's not enough the deliberately hackable voting systems bought from Republican donors at inflated prices will come in handy.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Beg borrow and steal to get money on Trump. There's value all over the place.
Maybe it actually was simple incompetence?Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter SobchakAbsolutely. They will pull every kind of trick possible to prevent people from voting in key swing states. Including under the guise of simple incompetence. Look at Georgia a few weeks ago. Sure you can vote if you stand in line for 6 hours. LOL "democracy" my ass. If that's not enough the deliberately hackable voting systems bought from Republican donors at inflated prices will come in handy.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Beg borrow and steal to get money on Trump. There's value all over the place.
Though I guess it wouldn't surprise me if the deep south pulled shenanigans to fuck black people.
I just find a weird irony that those complaining about unfair elections also want no ID taken to vote, and aren't interested in discussing a system where poor people could get some kind of free national ID in order to enable that. The whole argument seems lack honesty, especially since we actually had a Presidential election decided by dead people voting (Kennedy in 1960).
If we're going to be honest, we have to admit that both parties are self-interested, and will use whatever dirty tricks they can to get more votes of their own and suppress votes against them.
If truly free and EASY to obtain then no problem. (No standing in line at a DMV for example. Can be done by mail to every address in the country.)Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffMaybe it actually was simple incompetence?Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak
Though I guess it wouldn't surprise me if the deep south pulled shenanigans to fuck black people.
I just find a weird irony that those complaining about unfair elections also want no ID taken to vote, and aren't interested in discussing a system where poor people could get some kind of free national ID in order to enable that. The whole argument seems lack honesty, especially since we actually had a Presidential election decided by dead people voting (Kennedy in 1960).
If we're going to be honest, we have to admit that both parties are self-interested, and will use whatever dirty tricks they can to get more votes of their own and suppress votes against them.
It used to be conservatives who were against the national ID concept, if memory serves.
The same "simple incompetence" happens every single election and disproportionately affects minority areas. Nothing can be done about it when it happens time after time?
False equivalence. Of course both parties are self-interested but there's only one that repeatedly admits out loud that their goal is to stop people from voting. When was the last time there was any PROVEN coordinated attempt at in-person voter fraud of the type that would be stopped by IDs? Answer: never. Whereas there are many examples of disenfranchisement of minority voters turning an election. Improper purging of voter rolls in Florida in 2000 and Georgia in 2018 for example. In the latter case the guy who did it was also a candidate in the election! Sheer corruption from Republicans.
Honest question, are there really a significant number of people that don’t have an ID? Are we talking just the homeless? Even if you’re poor and get assistance don’t you have to have an ID to receive the benefits?
just another bad day for murica.
no word from the news that completely incompetent and manically narcissistic donnie darkdo and mass murdering mike the pedo are dead.
sad.
Seems the number is ~10% or ~20 million otherwise eligible voters.Quote:
Originally Posted by nightmarefish
Really amazing number if true. 20 million adults can make it through life without an ID? Only like 3 million of those are homeless so how do the rest survive? Can you get benefits without an ID? I guess my white privilege doesn't allow me to picture it.Quote:
Originally Posted by duped_samaritanSeems the number is ~10% or ~20 million otherwise eligible voters.Quote:
Originally Posted by nightmarefish
It's very hard to prove significant voter fraud from voting as someone else. You can't just do a simple audit to figure this out.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter SobchakIf truly free and EASY to obtain then no problem. (No standing in line at a DMV for example. Can be done by mail to every address in the country.)Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
It used to be conservatives who were against the national ID concept, if memory serves.
The same "simple incompetence" happens every single election and disproportionately affects minority areas. Nothing can be done about it when it happens time after time?
False equivalence. Of course both parties are self-interested but there's only one that repeatedly admits out loud that their goal is to stop people from voting. When was the last time there was any PROVEN coordinated attempt at in-person voter fraud of the type that would be stopped by IDs? Answer: never. Whereas there are many examples of disenfranchisement of minority voters turning an election. Improper purging of voter rolls in Florida in 2000 and Georgia in 2018 for example. In the latter case the guy who did it was also a candidate in the election! Sheer corruption from Republicans.
If I show up and vote in another precinct under a fake name, there is 0% chance it would be detected.
It's like saying, "Until you prove that a lot of neighborhoods in the area had significant break-ins due to unlocked doors, I'm going to assume it's safe to leave all of my doors unlocked at home."
That's an absurd argument, and not how security ever works. If you see a legitimate security threat (which allowing fake registrations and no attempt to validate them really is), then you close it. You don't wait for something bad to be proven occurring before doing so.
Most Democrats do NOT push for a National ID system to solve the voter registration issue. Instead, they just want no ID. There are exceptions, but that's generally what is happening.
I imagine the main reason for someone without an ID is that they had one at some point and it expired/was lost and not renewed within the time frame required for it to be easy. I could be wrong about this.Quote:
Originally Posted by nightmarefishReally amazing number if true. 20 million adults can make it through life without an ID? Only like 3 million of those are homeless so how do the rest survive? Can you get benefits without an ID? I guess my white privilege doesn't allow me to picture it.Quote:
Originally Posted by duped_samaritan
You can get a job, have them run a background check, open a checking account, apply for a credit card, pay your taxes and more all without an ID . I'm not wrong about this - at least for many states, but probably all.
There's no real incentive for anyone to decide to commit voter fraud. 'Every vote matters', yeah, but really your vote specifically doesn't matter because math. You could use the same argument for individuals when it comes to social distancing or recycling your bottles/cans or not wasting water.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffIt's very hard to prove significant voter fraud from voting as someone else. You can't just do a simple audit to figure this out.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak
If I show up and vote in another precinct under a fake name, there is 0% chance it would be detected.
It's like saying, "Until you prove that a lot of neighborhoods in the area had significant break-ins due to unlocked doors, I'm going to assume it's safe to leave all of my doors unlocked at home."
That's an absurd argument, and not how security ever works. If you see a legitimate security threat (which allowing fake registrations and no attempt to validate them really is), then you close it. You don't wait for something bad to be proven occurring before doing so.
Most Democrats do NOT push for a National ID system to solve the voter registration issue. Instead, they just want no ID. There are exceptions, but that's generally what is happening.
If there were serious voter fraud (as in individuals voting that didn't have the right to vote) to the degree that it could influence anything more than a small town local election (or maybe a bit bigger, but literally never a general presidential election) it would require some pretty serious organization - which would be much easier to detect than the individual cases of people voting who aren't entitled to vote.
Assuming that there's rampant voter fraud because it would be easy for millions of people to vote who don't have the right to vote is bullshit.
The real question: how many potential votes are worth suppressing for allowing potential illegal ones.
That analogy doesn't make any sense.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffIt's very hard to prove significant voter fraud from voting as someone else. You can't just do a simple audit to figure this out.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak
If I show up and vote in another precinct under a fake name, there is 0% chance it would be detected.
It's like saying, "Until you prove that a lot of neighborhoods in the area had significant break-ins due to unlocked doors, I'm going to assume it's safe to leave all of my doors unlocked at home."
That's an absurd argument, and not how security ever works. If you see a legitimate security threat (which allowing fake registrations and no attempt to validate them really is), then you close it. You don't wait for something bad to be proven occurring before doing so.
Most Democrats do NOT push for a National ID system to solve the voter registration issue. Instead, they just want no ID. There are exceptions, but that's generally what is happening.
A person would have to voter under the name of a registered voter they knew wouldn't vote. Or one that they falsely registered, that would vote in a different polling place because obviously they can't vote twice at the same place. Sure it's conceivable this happens on occasion, but wouldn't at least a handful of people be caught doing this by now? If it's enough to make a difference in any election it would have to be done on a massive scale. The Republicans are crying fraud fraud fraud, where's an example of it? Meanwhile they are throwing voters off the rolls hundreds of thousands at a time or running elections so poorly that in some places people have to wait in line for 6 hours and those places just so happen to always be minority places. Amazing how consistently that happens.
Bullshit.
What are the odds of neither Trump nor Biden will still be President come Election Day 2024?
for anyone betting on trump to pull this out, there is one and only one bet you should be making
predictit has the winner of the popular vote being president -- yes 75, no 25
with new york and california, the likelihood of trump winning the popular vote is 0.0%... but he still has a good chance of winning the electoral college.
biden might blurt out something about "coloreds" mid-debate
so... if you think trump will win, you want to bet "no." you're basically getting 3-1 odds that trump wins the presidency. this is much better odds than you're seeing on betting trump straight up.
even if you don't think trump will win, it might be worth betting on him here, just for the 3-1 odds.
this is fucking brilliant, blake!!! this is what I was looking for...Quote:
Originally Posted by blake
that bet is absolutely printing money for the trump side...
out of my assQuote:
Originally Posted by Bootsy Collins
im thinking 30% chance
Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
rn might seriously be the best time to bet trump, especially for u pussy faggots that like sure things. idk what could happen for it to be better, but im sure something could and probably will. despite the polls looking bad for Trump, i noticed he has shifted to -130 on sportsbook to win FL. bet yet he is 43 cents on predictit. i can't even use my 30% deposit bonus on sportsbook to do better
trump is 57 cents in Iowa and Ohio, realistically -200 is a good bet for him. won them both by 9% in 2016, same as he won texas by
All you need to do is find a similar gem on the Biden side where you could bet Biden at even so essentially free roll the Trump bet.Quote:
Originally Posted by blake
i mean you don't even need that, if you could get biden at even money to win the general and held trump at 2:1 that's still a great bet...Quote:
Originally Posted by nightmarefishAll you need to do is find a similar gem on the Biden side where you could bet Biden at even so essentially free roll the Trump bet.Quote:
Originally Posted by blake
i was all excited to press this one last night and i took way less than i originally wanted to...even at 3:1 i still need more risk premium on trump with 4 months to go...and i realize how insane that statement is as i type it...