Active shooter in Las Vegas

I have received more info from the casino insider.

The city of Reno has various video poker games with over 100% return. You can see some listed here: http://www.vpfree2.com/casinos/by-re...eno-tahoe.html

The locals love these machines, but in reality they are more of a gimmick than anything else. Most are low limit, and it is assumed that most players will also make mistakes and/or misclicks, bringing their expected win under 100%.

However, casinos are aware that there are computer-like video poker players who almost never make mistakes, and have a deep enough bankroll to withstand variance.

Stephen Paddock was one of those players, and in fact was regarded as one of the best, when it came to avoiding mistakes or incorrect strategy.

He loved the multiplay machines with the 100%+ return. He was beating the casinos for a long time, and had a deep enough bankroll to withstand any variance. In fact, he was observed being emotionless while playing. Even when he had bad sessions, he showed no frustration, and didn't seem to care much.

There was at least one casino in Reno where he was an overall winner over an extremely high number of hands, and probably more than just that one. (I know which casino, but I am not naming it, as I've been asked not to.)

He played video poker all over town, especially at places which ran 100%+ games at any reasonable stakes. (That is, he didn't play the 5c or single-play 25c machines.)

One casino even downgraded the 100%+ return 100-play machine they had, because he was consistently beating it. This disappointed some locals who enjoyed that machine, as the casino observed that only he was able to beat it over a large sample of hands.

He wasn't making huge money, however. The casinos aren't stupid enough to offer 100%+ games at high stakes, and it's still a big grind to make consistent money on a machine with a 100.xx% theoretical return. Clearly Paddock enjoyed the grind and spent a lot of time doing it.

He also played sub-100% games (hence his high status at Caesars), but focused most of his video poker play on the better-paying Reno properties.

Interestingly, he had a bad week recently, about a week before the shooting. He lost more during that week in Reno than they had ever observed him losing before. I was not told if his play style changed at all, but simply that he lost a lot, and that it was unusual. However, the amount he lost was unlikely to be significant enough to break him or cause serious financial damage, given what we know about him (and his ability to withstand variance in the past). It was only notable because of how bad the run was in such a short time. Was he perhaps playing poorly because his mind was on what was coming up?

FYI, Reno is quite far from Mesquite (over 500 miles), but he also had a property in Reno, which was searched by authorities after the shooting.

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Originally Posted by Shizzmoney

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Marilou Danley, the live-in girlfriend of Las Vegas gunman Stephen Paddock, and now a "person of interest" in the shooting investigation, is a Philippines native who has used two Social Security numbers during her two-plus decades in the United States, and was married to two men at the same time, public records show.

In California, her name is registered as Marilou Natividad-Bustos and her birthday is listed as January 1962, making her 55 years old. Under a different Social Security number in Nevada, her name is Marilou Lou Danley and her birthday is listed as December 1954, making her 62.

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http://www.newsweek.com/marilou-danl...r-677033?amp=1

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They've since retracted this. It was an error.

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Originally Posted by hongkonger

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Originally Posted by Shizzmoney

http://www.newsweek.com/marilou-danl...r-677033?amp=1

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They've since retracted this. It was an error.

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LOL

Amazing how far Newsweek has fallen.

Remember that embarrassing bitcoin story about "identifying" Satoshi?

What a trash publication.

Prolly no safer place on earth right now especially with Trump visit

I think I played craps with a couple FBI. They never take full odds

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Originally Posted by sonatine

Like, we've seen this shit before:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Whitman

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Psychosis of some kind actually makes the most sense at this point. His motive was somewhere in his delusions.

He sent his GF away to protect her from himself, some imaginary threat and/or the police (provide her an alibi, soften the blow etc.).

Kinda scary with the similarities to Charles Whitman and to see what 50 years does to body count. Town square got more crowded and weapons became far more lethal and easier to use. Likely both had their arsenal before any violent thoughts. Whitman pretty much had to get training in the military to accomplish what he did. Paddock was just a gun enthusiast. Evolution of civilian small arms and it's still going in the same direction.

For those conspiracy theorists who keep insisting that there were "multiple shooters" due to the flashing lights seen on lower floors of the building: Time to give up on that.

First, none can explain the window thing, as Paddock had to break windows in order to shoot from the room. No other rooms had windows broken.

More importantly, those same flashing lights can be seen in this news report AFTER the shooting:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7RpvVwsodHE

Conspiritards looking foolish once again.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Conspiritards looking foolish once again.

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Gordo's gonna Gordo.

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Originally Posted by Gordman

Im no conspiracy theorist, but ill say right now with high probability that there was more than one shooter. I just watched vids from 3 different angles showing muzzle flashes....and they were nowhere near the 34th floor - it looked like the 4th or 5th or in that area. Either someone did a hell of a job on cranking out fake vids like that, or we arent being told everything.

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Originally Posted by gimmick

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Originally Posted by sonatine

Like, we've seen this shit before:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Whitman

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Psychosis of some kind actually makes the most sense at this point. His motive was somewhere in his delusions.

He sent his GF away to protect her from himself, some imaginary threat and/or the police (provide her an alibi, soften the blow etc.).

Kinda scary with the similarities to Charles Whitman and to see what 50 years does to body count. Town square got more crowded and weapons became far more lethal and easier to use. Likely both had their arsenal before any violent thoughts. Whitman pretty much had to get training in the military to accomplish what he did. Paddock was just a gun enthusiast. Evolution of civilian small arms and it's still going in the same direction.

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I mean, I was up on the psychosis theory the second I heard about this and it only made more sense to me as it went on, but some actual honest to god gun experts (as opposed to PFA's red state squirrel hunter militia) are pointing out some interesting things, and while they by no means negate the psychosis theory, they point out that there were indicators this was a carefully researched/premeditated operation, and not a spur of the moment meltdown:



More fun facts:

He was in the perfect position; a police sniper could never return fire without endangering other guests. He was using shooting platforms recessed in the dark of the room, which helped obfuscate the muzzle flash positions and significantly enhance stability while shooting. Plus, shooting from the dark into the light is essential snipercraft.

The platforms gave him stability as well, and he had two shooting positions with weapons prepared on each so he had redundancy in case one weapon malfunctioned/overheated.

He was shooting onto concrete, at a distance where ricochets maintained lethality.

The targets had virtually no cover available.

A lot of people are stunned that he only killed 59 people, basically. And this sort of premeditation strongly implies that there was not an 'emotional collapse' impetus behind it.

Reading Druff's post about how behaved when he went on a major losing streak recently also lends itself to the theory that his downswing was a symptom of his impending episode, not the cause.

His valium prescription in June paints a picture of someone who may have had an emotional wall chemically torn down by prescription mood altering meds, allowing him to embrace his hereditary psychosis.

The link between mass shootings and psychiatric medication has been the subject of a lot of research/debate in the last few years.

If we can't get effective gun control legislation enacted, perhaps the government could subsidize large smart phone purchases for folks looking for some protection against random nutjob shooters.

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It's a pity he didn't die of cancer or some other shit before he got the chance to massacre all the people.

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Originally Posted by sonatine

Also, fun fact, apparently he had recently been prescribed valium. One of the side effects can be aggressive behavior, apparently.

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I agree, this could have played a role. If he was abusing the Valium, well,

"Diazepam is a sedative-hypnotic drug in the class of drugs known as benzodiazepines, which studies have shown can trigger aggressive behavior. Chronic use or abuse of sedatives such as diazepam (Valium) can also trigger psychotic experiences" --- drugabuse.com



LVRJ article on his being prescribed Valium in June, 2017:

https://www.reviewjournal.com/local/...y-drug-in-june



If he was prescribed an anti-anxiety drug, well, he had a pre-exisiting issue, even if it is a common one.

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Originally Posted by sonatine

I mean, I was up on the psychosis theory the second I heard about this and it only made more sense to me as it went on, but some actual honest to god gun experts (as opposed to PFA's red state squirrel hunter militia) are pointing out some interesting things, and while they by no means negate the psychosis theory, they point out that there were indicators this was a carefully researched/premeditated operation, and not a spur of the moment meltdown:

He was in the perfect position; a police sniper could never return fire without endangering other guests. He was using shooting platforms recessed in the dark of the room, which helped obfuscate the muzzle flash positions and significantly enhance stability while shooting. Plus, shooting from the dark into the light is essential snipercraft.

The platforms gave him stability as well, and he had two shooting positions with weapons prepared on each so he had redundancy in case one weapon malfunctioned/overheated.

He was shooting onto concrete, at a distance where ricochets maintained lethality.

The targets had virtually no cover available.

A lot of people are stunned that he only killed 59 people, basically. And this sort of premeditation strongly implies that there was not an 'emotional collapse' impetus behind it.

Reading Druff's post about how behaved when he went on a major losing streak recently also lends itself to the theory that his downswing was a symptom of his impending episode, not the cause.

His valium prescription in June paints a picture of someone who may have had an emotional wall chemically torn down by prescription mood altering meds, allowing him to embrace his hereditary psychosis.

The link between mass shootings and psychiatric medication has been the subject of a lot of research/debate in the last few years.

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I thought the same about the losing streak week prior.

The aggression that valium causes is similar to alcohol. He ran out of his script in early August. The dose or the length of use wasn't enough to induce psychosis (from use or withdrawal).

I think it's likelier he had been feeling off for a while and was subscribed a fairly mild benzo for it. It likely had no effect for his condition.

He had a gun room in his Nevada house in 2013. So he had been collecting guns for a while. It's not really necessary he had premeditated the attack all that long. It's even possible that the hotel room in his mind was a defensive position and the reason he killed himself so soon was because he realized what he had actually done.

Dunno need more information basically. Autopsy/toxicology report, GF interviews, what was found at the scene and his properties etc. should paint a clearer picture.

Why the US won't have any meaningful change to gun control laws despite this horrific event (and others like it).

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Originally Posted by gimmick

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Originally Posted by sonatine

I mean, I was up on the psychosis theory the second I heard about this and it only made more sense to me as it went on, but some actual honest to god gun experts (as opposed to PFA's red state squirrel hunter militia) are pointing out some interesting things, and while they by no means negate the psychosis theory, they point out that there were indicators this was a carefully researched/premeditated operation, and not a spur of the moment meltdown:

He was in the perfect position; a police sniper could never return fire without endangering other guests. He was using shooting platforms recessed in the dark of the room, which helped obfuscate the muzzle flash positions and significantly enhance stability while shooting. Plus, shooting from the dark into the light is essential snipercraft.

The platforms gave him stability as well, and he had two shooting positions with weapons prepared on each so he had redundancy in case one weapon malfunctioned/overheated.

He was shooting onto concrete, at a distance where ricochets maintained lethality.

The targets had virtually no cover available.

A lot of people are stunned that he only killed 59 people, basically. And this sort of premeditation strongly implies that there was not an 'emotional collapse' impetus behind it.

Reading Druff's post about how behaved when he went on a major losing streak recently also lends itself to the theory that his downswing was a symptom of his impending episode, not the cause.

His valium prescription in June paints a picture of someone who may have had an emotional wall chemically torn down by prescription mood altering meds, allowing him to embrace his hereditary psychosis.

The link between mass shootings and psychiatric medication has been the subject of a lot of research/debate in the last few years.

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I thought the same about the losing streak week prior.

The aggression that valium causes is similar to alcohol. He ran out of his script in early August. The dose or the length of use wasn't enough to induce psychosis (from use or withdrawal).

I think it's likelier he had been feeling off for a while and was subscribed a fairly mild benzo for it. It likely had no effect for his condition.

He had a gun room in his Nevada house in 2013. So he had been collecting guns for a while. It's not really necessary he had premeditated the attack all that long. It's even possible that the hotel room in his mind was a defensive position and the reason he killed himself so soon was because he realized what he had actually done.

Dunno need more information basically. Autopsy/toxicology report, GF interviews, what was found at the scene and his properties etc. should paint a clearer picture.

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The theory isnt that psych meds necessarily induce psychosis, the theory is that it can weaken mental 'load bearing walls'. So for example if youve spent your entire life keeping an aggressive streak at bay, benzos can effectively weaken the wall holding back those urges.

Its like that theory that people who become assholes while drunk are assholes 24/7, but alcohol brings out their true colors.

It may not be true 100 times out of 100 but when you apply those physics to the narrative we have regarding Paddock, everything falls completely into place.

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Originally Posted by SetofKs

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Originally Posted by cmoney

I think a lot of people on this forum could have pulled this off. The cameras on food tray was actually pretty risky as they usually grab those fairly quickly. Also, if the food tray was outside his room, it also potentially brings housekeeping to your vicinity which wouldnt be ideal.

Also, I am surprised he didnt think about the fire alarm. I have no idea if it is possible to disable that but you would think he would have thought of that and brought fans in to blow out the smoke. If the alarms didnt go off there would probably have been a lot more deaths.

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Nobody here would've thought to spray down on a outdoor concert from inside a suite. I didn't even realize that was possible. I think its brilliant. I'm surprised a 64 year old came up with that, and all this. My dads a few years older than that, and he forget things, and falls asleep while hes driving. But, now that we see his playbook, yes we could've pulled it off, maybe. But the guy has the all time mass shooting record for kills in this country for a reason. I doubt anybody here could top it if they wanted to.

That said it does sound to me like he killed himself after 10 minutes, but swat didn't arrive to his room for an hour. Any idea why he killed himself so early? Sounds like he could've got a lot more kills if he wanted to.

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The problem isn't getting a "higher score" its getting away with it alive, or without the plan failing.

As others have pointed out it would have only taken a maid checking the room, a bellhop seeing lots of luggage going in and out, the desk clerk noticing he checked in under a different name for the attack to have potentially been foiled.

As Cmoney said, if Paddock had found a way to stop the fire alarms going off he probably could have gone for another 5-10 minutes:

Most people could probably come up with an effective mass shooting scenario, most people would either screw it up or not try it because they wouldn't be getting out alive.

As a sidenote, Sum of all fears had the idea of crashing a jet liner into the Capitol building, and "Lone Gunmen Club" showed how to take over a Jet and attempt o crash it into the WTC before Sept 11.

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Originally Posted by SetofKs

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Originally Posted by cmoney

I think a lot of people on this forum could have pulled this off. The cameras on food tray was actually pretty risky as they usually grab those fairly quickly. Also, if the food tray was outside his room, it also potentially brings housekeeping to your vicinity which wouldnt be ideal.

Also, I am surprised he didnt think about the fire alarm. I have no idea if it is possible to disable that but you would think he would have thought of that and brought fans in to blow out the smoke. If the alarms didnt go off there would probably have been a lot more deaths.

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Nobody here would've thought to spray down on a outdoor concert from inside a suite. I didn't even realize that was possible. I think its brilliant. I'm surprised a 64 year old came up with that, and all this. My dads a few years older than that, and he forget things, and falls asleep while hes driving. But, now that we see his playbook, yes we could've pulled it off, maybe. But the guy has the all time mass shooting record for kills in this country for a reason. I doubt anybody here could top it if they wanted to.

That said it does sound to me like he killed himself after 10 minutes, but swat didn't arrive to his room for an hour. Any idea why he killed himself so early? Sounds like he could've got a lot more kills if he wanted to.

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I read that a Mandalay Bay Security Guard approached the room on the 32nd floor within about 15 minutes of the start of the shooting. Paddock shot the guard through the door in the leg and then probably thought his time was up at that point because the shooting stopped shortly thereafter. SWAT arrived about 45 minutes later.

https://globalnews.ca/video/3781502/...security-guard

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Originally Posted by sonatine

TAKE A VICTORY LAP, AMERICA!

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Hey I own that very shirt on the meme troll

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Originally Posted by sonatine

Fun fact; shooter was a Bernie bro.

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I’m shocked tell you. But hey libs want guns banned so it’s all counter intuitive. Shoot people with guns to get guns banned. No Victory Without Sacrafice (Bonus points if anybody can expose what TV show I’m quoting)

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Originally Posted by PuppyMonkeyBaby

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Originally Posted by sonatine

Fun fact; shooter was a Bernie bro.

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I’m shocked tell you. But hey libs want guns banned so it’s all counter intuitive. Shoot people with guns to get guns banned. No Victory Without Sacrafice (Bonus points if anybody can expose what TV show I’m quoting)

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Its funny because it ties into what Hillary was complaining about; no matter how challenging or extreme her proposal, Bernie would just arbitrarily one-up her regardless of how ludicrous or irresponsible it was. So naturally a lot of borderline personalities gravitated to him.