Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
it's uncanny.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
it's uncanny.
I'm taking the Vikings tonight -1.5 because of the Patriots. You see, the Pats are on a bit of a doom roll. A big reason to be let down by the pathetic loss yesterday was the realization that the QB might stink. JJ McCarthy making Pats fans wonder why they didn't draft him instead of Drake Maye would seem to complete the circle of dread. I feel like this has to happen.
I've noticed the sharps already like the Falcons for Sunday, so I'm not taking the Vikings on any Survivor ticket. Whether I am dumb enough to bet the Falcons again is another story.
Green Bay looking real this year.
Washington getting smacked when playing a team which doesn't suck. I don't trust the Redskins to repeat last year.
I almost fired on GB -3. Should have obv. Next time I go with my gut.
Revisiting Survivor week 2: (note that lines are just posted for info purposes, these are all actually +0 picks)
Baltimore -11.5 vs Cleveland - Safe pick, too public, but will probably do at least 1 ticket here
Dallas -5 vs NY Giants - Possible, but this one could get upset. Giants looked bad week 1, though
LA Rams -5.5 at Tennessee - Rams looked good. But could be better spot in the future for them, such as home vs Saints 11/2
Buffalo -6 at NY Jets - Buffalo didn't look good until that miraculous comeback. At home vs Saints in 2 weeks would be better spot. Also, books want action on Buffalo.
Detroit -6 vs Chicago - Bears may not be a pushover, and the Lions look like regression might be happening. Possible upset here. On the plus side, the books seem to want action on Chicago.
Arizona -7 -105 vs Carolina - Who knew this mediocre team would be a top survivor pick in the first 2 weeks? Maybe anyone who looked at the schedule. Panthers looked bad week 1. I have 3 tickets which can still use Arizona out of the 6.
Minnesota -3.5 +103 vs Atlanta - Sharps and books both seem to believe Minnesota won't cover -- and that they might lose outright. Big nope.
LA Chargers -3.5 -104 at Las Vegas - Chargers don't face many outright bad teams, but they will be at home against these same Raiders on 11/30
49ers will not be playing Purdy, so they are out of the question this week.
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These are all the games which are -3.5 or more favorite.
What are your feelings? I have 6 tickets, but only 3 can use Arizona.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Chicago still isn’t good and I think Detroit rights the ship fairly easily imo
Dallas for me.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Not the most likely to win but this will be the only week they can possibly be used.
Dallas is a good pick, but note they will be at Carolina on 10/12.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyDallas for me.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Not the most likely to win but this will be the only week they can possibly be used.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffDallas is a good pick, but note they will be at Carolina on 10/12.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
I don't make them over a 3 point favorite on the road vs Carolina.
Week 6 will be tricky but I am landing on Pitt, Was or Phi as of now. So if that is true (and you may disagree) I think its now or never on Dallas.
Survivor
Tickets 1-3: Dallas (last week Arizona)
Ticket 4: Baltimore (last week Jax)
Ticket 5: Arizona (last week Jax)
Ticket 6: Arizona (last week Denver)
https://x.com/CircaSports/status/1967089158062829686
Pretty shocked Baltimore wasn't the leading pick this week.
I guess the players are getting sharper.
Well, sort of. 43 tickets already down the drain due to not picking.
Strategy question- you had said previously the smartest route to win is to stay away from the chalk, most obvious picks. 2 weeks in, all you’ve done is spread your picks among the top 3 most obvious choices. What gives?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I’ve found reasons to dislike all of the other potential picks.Quote:
Originally Posted by The IconStrategy question- you had said previously the smartest route to win is to stay away from the chalk, most obvious picks. 2 weeks in, all you’ve done is spread your picks among the top 3 most obvious choices. What gives?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Druff owes Daboll and Wilson a Sonatine after that mismanagement of time by those 2 clowns.
Congratulations….I guess.
That was one of the craziest games I've seen. 4th quarter those teams morphed into Greatest-show-on-turf Rams, amazing offense. Then quickly switched back to normal Cowboys/Giants incompetence lulz in OT.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Boz
Glad I wasn't sweating 3 Circa tickets on that.
Probably took 3 years off my life.Quote:
Originally Posted by gutThat was one of the craziest games I've seen. 4th quarter those teams morphed into Greatest-show-on-turf Rams, amazing offense. Then quickly switched back to normal Cowboys/Giants incompetence lulz in OT.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Boz
Glad I wasn't sweating 3 Circa tickets on that.
I had the same thought... one of the craziest games I've ever seen. Every time I thought I was fucked, they pulled off a miracle. Every time I thought I had it in the bag, I got fucked.
You're right, the OT was absolutely awful on both ends, just a little less awful on the Cowboys' side. That INT which pretty much decided it was a mind-bogglingly bad decision by Wilson, who otherwise wasn't playing like Russell Wilson the rest of the game. Seemed like the Giants essentially gave up at that point.
Glad I won't be using this Dallas team again. Or most likely won't be for the other 3 tickets.
Now I just need Carolina to be Carolina.
Feels good to be a ploppy.
I was just thinking about it, and I realized that the NFL might have fucked itself by scheduling 2 good teams against the Chiefs right off the bat, and then 2 of the next 4 games are against tough teams, as well. Do they really want this team to get off to a bad start?
I realize that the Taylor Swift engagement happened after the schedule was made/released, but it's been obvious for awhile that the NFL has a vested interest in the Chiefs succeeding, so you'd think they'd at least allow them to build up a good record, rather than frontload them with interesting matchups which have the potential to start the Chiefs off 0-2, and maybe even 2-4.
In the meantime you have mediocre teams like Arizona who start off playing failteams and (hopefully in Arizona's case) have an easy path to 2-0.
Carolina might be the worst team in the NFL this year.
They were expected to be among the bottom teams. but they've really looked pathetic so far. This might inform my future Survivor picks.
That backward double clutch throw that lost a dozen yards flipped the entire game. Wilson went from the best game he’s had in 5 years to retard after that. They were like 2nd and 2 and about to win in 3 plays and the Survivor gods smiled upon you
Need some breaks to win these things
Yeah there were several points in this game where I was getting emotionally ready to lose half my tickets. That was one of them. I kept thinking, "Well, maybe I can get an interception or fumble here somehow", then I saw the pass leave his hand and I was instantly thinking it wasn't a good throw. Then I saw where it was going, and all I could think was, "Don't drop it!"Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Of course right after I bash Carolina, they come back from 27-3 and almost win.
Arizona's coach apologizing the most I've ever seen a coach apologize after a 2-0 start by a mediocre team: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...hers-2-0-start
But yeah, the second half was dreadful, especially the 4th quarter. They're lucky they were playing a terrible team, and squeaked away with a close win.
Both games they've let failteams get back in it.
So with all 6 Survivor tickets intact -- including 5 of them having used Arizona over 2 different weeks, here's my way-too-early look at Week 3, before Week 2 is even over.
Tickets 1-3 can't use ARI or DAL. Ticket 4 can't use JAX or BAL. Ticket 5 cannot use JAX or ARI. Ticket 6 cannot use DEN or ARI. This shouldn't be a problem as I won't be using any of these anyway in Week 3.
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Buffalo -12.5 vs Miami (Thurs) - Very chalky, might be better to hold back to use team later
Green Bay -8.5 at Cleveland - Also very chalky, probably better to hold this team back til later, might be best in NFL
Indy -3.5 at Tennessee - Risky, will be at home vs these same Titans 10/26, better to table 'til then
Tampa -6.5 vs NY Jets - Semi-chalky, especially since Tampa appears better than expected so far
Washington -5.5 vs Las Vegas - Still not sure about this Redskins team. Also might need for the holiday games.
Seattle -7.5 vs New Orleans - Another chalk game, but tempting because Seattle isn't one of the better teams, and this is a good spot for them
KC -6.5 at NY Giants - Not doing it, need KC down the road on the holiday games
Atlanta (No line yet) at Carolina - They see these same Panthers at home on 11/16
Baltimore -5.5 vs Detroit (Monday) - Nope. Terrible spot to use Baltimore.
----
This is gonna be a tough decision. I have to think Seattle will be part of it, possibly Tampa.
Opinions?
Buffalo, GB, Bal & phi are too good down the road to use now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Tampa, KC & Wash have some "mo better" spots down the road.
Seattle for me this week.
When the colts were either +or-1 vs miami week 1 i was surprised considering the qb is daniel jones. They went on to win by 30 or so points. So, ok miami is terrible and the jags should bring them back down to earth and then they go out and win a close game like that. Of all these picks I like the colts the best and then the bills.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Atlanta had to have proven something to everyone yesterday as well. Good luck, Druff!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
they look good. nice call. wish i had tailed.
tampa
seattle
If you're saying that about Survivor, I'm glad we agree.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
Or maybe not glad, given our record together. Though Atlanta came through, so...
Anyway, I'm not totally sold on Tampa, so I think using them at this point might be good, as they aren't necessarily a top team I'll want to save until later.
I'm in the process of deciding which teams I'm going to go with, especially since I might put one ticket on the Thurs game.
I do find it funny how some "sharps" are geeking out about various teams, and making shitty picks which I thought would lose (and most did).
Many were obsessed with Texas this Monday.
Others were obsessed with the Raiders at home pulling an upset. Obv that didn't happen either.
The funniest was the obsession with Pittsburgh just because Rodgers didn't look horrible in Game 1. I almost faded that one with a ML bet, and of course wish I did, but with so many sharps on the Steelers, I backed away thinking maybe I was missing something. Should've just gone with my gut.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffIf you're saying that about Survivor, I'm glad we agree.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
Or maybe not glad, given our record together. Though Atlanta came through, so...
Anyway, I'm not totally sold on Tampa, so I think using them at this point might be good, as they aren't necessarily a top team I'll want to save until later.
I'm in the process of deciding which teams I'm going to go with, especially since I might put one ticket on the Thurs game.
yes, survivor.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
LAC was easy. score not reflective. LVS looked terrible imo esp offense.
I already see a potentially problematic week for Survivor -- week 5.
If Purdy isn't back, Rams at home vs SF is possible.
Otherwise it looks like a choice between Colts at home vs Raiders, Vikings at Browns, and Bills at home vs Patriots.
Week 6 is also an issue, looking like the choices are Steelers at home vs Browns (though I really hate Steelers in general), Broncos at Jets, Redskins at home vs Bears, and Chargers at Dolphins.
I really don't want to use the Chiefs, Eagles, or Redskins because I want to save those for the holiday games, if I make it that far.
I dont play with a Holliday consideration, so thats a twist.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I got Vikings week 5 at Clev -or- its a week to use a stud team (Buf, Bal or even Phi, KC).
Week 6 will be equally tricky. I think Pitt vs Clev would be the choice or Wash vs Chi (or stud team).
Note I'm saying this as a Vikes fan, but i'd be hesitant to pick them against anyone right now with the injuries. Admittedly, by week 5 Addison is back from suspension already, and Darrisaw should be back at LT. Might still be Wentz at QB, although after these last 2 weeks, not sure if thats better or worse.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyI dont play with a Holliday consideration, so thats a twist.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I got Vikings week 5 at Clev -or- its a week to use a stud team (Buf, Bal or even Phi, KC).
Week 6 will be equally tricky. I think Pitt vs Clev would be the choice or Wash vs Chi (or stud team).
Other quirk there is that is the 2nd game in a row the Vikes are playing in Europe. Vs. Pittsburgh in Dublin week 4, and then they just go to London for the Browns game. Not sure if spending a full 8-9 days overseas helps with the acclimation for the second game, or hurts by simply being away from home for so long. First time any team has done this. At least they are both technically road games for MN.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gutNote I'm saying this as a Vikes fan, but i'd be hesitant to pick them against anyone right now with the injuries. Admittedly, by week 5 Addison is back from suspension already, and Darrisaw should be back at LT. Might still be Wentz at QB, although after these last 2 weeks, not sure if thats better or worse.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Other quirk there is that is the 2nd game in a row the Vikes are playing in Europe. Vs. Pittsburgh in Dublin week 4, and then they just go to London for the Browns game. Not sure if spending a full 8-9 days overseas helps with the acclimation for the second game, or hurts by simply being away from home for so long. First time any team has done this. At least they are both technically road games for MN.
All i can say is that when they put the numbers in the computer the look ahead line makes Vikings a 7 point fav over Cleveland in a neutral site. All those things you mentioned are theoretically baked in the cake. The same computer doesn't make them more than a 3 point fav in any week the rest of the year.
How right or wrong is it? I have no idea. I am reading the tea leaves as they sit.
Jayden Daniels injured his knee last week and missed practice today, so it's likely he won't play Sunday. It's likely he will be back soon, but this week he probably sits.
That pretty much takes the Redskins off the table for this week for Survivor. I wasn't going to take them anyway, but I was actually hoping more would (and then it would lose), and now it's likely not to get a lot of picks.
Sad!
Yeah it's looking like Wentz this week.Quote:
Originally Posted by gutNote I'm saying this as a Vikes fan, but i'd be hesitant to pick them against anyone right now with the injuries. Admittedly, by week 5 Addison is back from suspension already, and Darrisaw should be back at LT. Might still be Wentz at QB, although after these last 2 weeks, not sure if thats better or worse.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Other quirk there is that is the 2nd game in a row the Vikes are playing in Europe. Vs. Pittsburgh in Dublin week 4, and then they just go to London for the Browns game. Not sure if spending a full 8-9 days overseas helps with the acclimation for the second game, or hurts by simply being away from home for so long. First time any team has done this. At least they are both technically road games for MN.
Speaking of injured QBs, Joe Burrow might be out for the season, and definitely for awhile.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...urn-later-2025
This means this week's Vikings/Bengals matchup will be Browning versus Wentz, which I'm sure will be riveting.
Last time vikes v bengals was also backup fest, Browning v Mullens in 2023, i thinkQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffYeah it's looking like Wentz this week.Quote:
Originally Posted by gut
Speaking of injured QBs, Joe Burrow might be out for the season, and definitely for awhile.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...urn-later-2025
This means this week's Vikings/Bengals matchup will be Browning versus Wentz, which I'm sure will be riveting.
So... I've got an issue with Survivor.
I was considering a ticket on Buffalo, but decided against it. I was happy to see Miami holding to a 21-21 tie in the 4th, but sadly they lost. But whatever, lots of uses for Buffalo down the line.
So I've got 6 tickets, and there are only 3 decent choices, all things considered:
Tampa (vs NY Jets)
Seattle (vs New Orleans)
Atlanta (at Carolina)
Tampa and Seattle look best, but there are a LOT of sharps who are going the other way on both. Granted, most of them are just going with the spread, stating that they don't feel Seattle or Tampa will cover, but I never like doing Survivor picks where sharps are on the other side, even spread-wise.
Atlanta also has some sharps picking the other side. There's also the issue that it's on the road, and Atlanta just isn't very good. Carolina also showed some heart by almost catching Arizona in the second half, and that was on the road!
Austin Corbett and Robert Hunt are out for Caroilna, and Ikem Ekwonu isn't totally healthy due to an appendectomy. So there's an argument that Carolina won't score much, and Atlanta will smack Carolina's bad defense like it did to the Vikings last week. But that young Falcons team still makes me nervous.
I'm thinking of going with:
Seattle 3 tickets
Tampa 2 tickets
Atlanta 1 ticket
Opinions?
KC isn't an option, and I don't want to waste Green Bay either, especially on the road.
On the plus side, these 3 teams don't have a lot of future value (especially Seattle and Atlanta), so it would be nice to again win with teams which I won't have to worry about using up.