Of course, Nate Silver predicted Hillary Clinton to win by a large margin.
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Of course, Nate Silver predicted Hillary Clinton to win by a large margin.
I am repeating myself, but Trump needs to keep the lowest profile possible in August. Let her run up a lead. I said 5 points nationally is reasonable end of month. Then she is the favorite and she will act like the favorite. And she will implode. Trust me, all of a sudden cat lady in her pant suit will start dancing on stage with he bizarre VP, and it will totally backfire in spectacular fashion.Quote:
Originally Posted by VaughnP
These obviously are not good polls for Trump, they are good numbers for fat white unmarried women, transgender persuaded people, poor, and minorities:
Arizona: Trump vs. Harris vs. Kennedy vs. West vs. Stein
Cook Political Report
Harris 46, Trump 42, Kennedy 7, West 1, Stein 0
Harris
+4
Georgia: Trump vs. Harris vs. Kennedy vs. West vs. Stein
Cook Political Report
Trump 46, Harris 46, Kennedy 4, West 1, Stein 1
Tie
Michigan: Trump vs. Harris vs. Kennedy vs. West vs. Stein
Cook Political Report
Harris 46, Trump 44, Kennedy 6, Stein 0, West 1
Harris
+2
Nevada: Trump vs. Harris vs. Kennedy vs. West vs. Stein
Cook Political Report
Trump 47, Harris 42, Kennedy 5, Stein 1, West 0
Trump
+5
North Carolina: Trump vs. Harris vs. Kennedy vs. West vs. Stein
Cook Political Report
Trump 44, Harris 46, Kennedy 4, Stein 1, West 0
Harris
+2
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Harris vs. Kennedy vs. West vs. Stein
Cook Political Report
Harris 48, Trump 43, Kennedy 5, Stein 0, West 0
Harris
+5
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Harris vs. Kennedy vs. West vs. Stein
Cook Political Report
Harris 48, Trump 43, Kennedy 5, Stein 0, West 1
Harris
+5
Florida: Trump vs. Harris
Florida Atlantic University
Trump 50, Harris 47
Trump
+3
If Trump wants to win, and I believe he does, he needs to shun this unity bullshit. Or running on the issues, which is always a loser, see Mitt Romney.
He needs to go Dark Maga.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarWe live in a perpetual present. Obviously you nap it outQuote:
Originally Posted by tgull
This is modern life 2020’s. 1 month ago Trump came within an inch of a red mist yet it is completely forgotten.
Animals in the forest behave this way too. No memory
Just had a thought.
America is like an Alzheimer’s patient who can’t recognize their children. Show America Kamala Harris and it’s like seeing someone for the first time. No memory.
We live in a perpetual present.
JD Vance talking about whether Walz kissed or shook his wife’s hand. Trump just finished the Stormy Daniel’s trial. He had a mistress while Baron’s mom was pregnant. Like wtf dude. Vance has no memory but the public forgot too… so it plays kind of.
I read this the other day but didn't have time to think about it and respond. The notion of the perpetual present. It felt both right and wrong all at once and I had to think about it. It threw me because usually you think of living in the present as healthy. So much depression and baggage is associated with dwelling on the past. I like the Alzheimer's analogy because it's closer to that. An unhealthy perpetual present. That feels right. An involuntary unhealthy condition because we have lost the ability to recall.
The brain is like the ocean. We know a few things, but largely uncharted beneath the surface. Pretty much the rest of the body is fairly mapped out. Very few mysteries below the neck, but the brain is still mostly mystery. You read a lot of things that will say something like the hippocampus is thought to be responsible for....
Is thought to be is the key.
Guesswork. Educated guesswork, but still guesswork. We've mastered how to flood dopamine receptors and get people to click on shit and gamble through trial and error over 50 years, but that's almost Pavlonian level shit. Guys click a girls pic abd they get thumbs up and get a dopamine rush. My friend agreed with my comment and that makes me feel happy.
We don't know far more than we know about the brain. Your post reminded me of an ongoing conversation I have been having with a buddy of mine for probably close to a decade. Sometimes we are discussing young people. Other times just modern culture. Art. Culture post internet.
The general theme being we are losing something essential when we remove the process of seeking out information. For any other part of the body use it or lose it is just self-evident.
You'll see recommendations for the aging populace to do crossword puzzles or something, but little that addresses young people and what we aren't developing that we once did.
We don't really yet understand it.
I think of how often and how frustrating things were growing up that were on the tip of your tongue. A name. Song lyrics. What guy am I thinking about who used to play 3rd base for the Yankees when I was a kid with the mustache? Who was that girl you introduced me to that worked with your buddy with the muscle car at that place? Which place? That job you had when we were 16, I think it was a convenience store. Just random shit that got stuck on the tip of your tongue and you couldn't quite pull up.
Not curing world hunger or cancer. Just shit that made you frustrated you couldn't pull up instantly. If I got stuck it would interfere with my sleep. Just random things that required thinking really hard. Then you'd have to let it go because it wasn't coming and often it would pop into your head only after you quit dwelling on it.
I think anyone our age recalls that and remembers that process. And depending on what you were stuck on, it could be a week to resolve. You might not be able to frame the question to resolve it. Things you couldn't grab an encyclopedia and answer the next day.
My brain is always going, and it drove me crazy. Like I'd get a random thought at 4AM and get pissed and need to know this useless thing. Not because it was important, but because my brain wouldn't pop it out.
In almost all things, including the body, the process is where the vast majority of the benefit is derived. You go for a run or hike or play a game of tennis. Who wins or getting back to your car isn't the benefit. The process is what is healthy and you're building all the endurance and developing everything from the process.
I think about how that tip of the tongue frustration almost never happens anymore. Everything is a click away. I can't remember a person, I text a buddy, oh I will look at facebook and message someone and ask who you mean and they'll know. I can find almost anything in a minute. You can answer almost any question with minimal effort. Someone under 35 hardly ever had that sensation for beyond 5 minutes.
I wonder why late 20th century writers were so much worse than early 20th century writers. And both worse than 19th century writers. Why modern music is so weak when kids can take in every great artist instantly, and yet produce largely shit. Why our founders, often with little formal education, wrote with an insight completely lacking from all our modern Ivy grifters.
I think so much is gained from the process. The harder the process, something is built and developed and valued. Seeking out information developed something we don't yet understand.
I think that's true of almost all things, and now that perpetual present you speak of is really just a mental blankness borne of poor recall and a byproduct of something we no longer develop in young people. And even those of us who at one time developed it have quit using it to the degree we once did and find ourselves in a state of collective mental atrophy. What you knew just 3 years ago is quickly forgotten. Everything is dopamine. Quick fix shit. That part of our brain is overdeveloped like the arms of a young wheelchair bound kid, and everything else is like his atrophied legs.
When it becomes easier to do anything, we lose something gained from the struggle and process almost every time.
Flood people with enough nonsense, add in mental atrophy, and you can reintroduce Kamala and 90% of the country can't recall why she seemed like an idiot 3 years ago before Biden locked her in her office.
This is a sign of Mental illness....Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
I read this the other day but didn't have time to think about it and respond. The notion of the perpetual present. It felt both right and wrong all at once and I had to think about it. It threw me because usually you think of living in the present as healthy. So much depression and baggage is associated with dwelling on the past. I like the Alzheimer's analogy because it's closer to that. An unhealthy perpetual present. That feels right. An involuntary unhealthy condition because we have lost the ability to recall.
The brain is like the ocean. We know a few things, but largely uncharted beneath the surface. Pretty much the rest of the body is fairly mapped out. Very few mysteries below the neck, but the brain is still mostly mystery. You read a lot of things that will say something like the hippocampus is thought to be responsible for....
Is thought to be is the key.
Guesswork. Educated guesswork, but still guesswork. We've mastered how to flood dopamine receptors and get people to click on shit and gamble through trial and error over 50 years, but that's almost Pavlonian level shit. Guys click a girls pic abd they get thumbs up and get a dopamine rush. My friend agreed with my comment and that makes me feel happy.
We don't know far more than we know about the brain. Your post reminded me of an ongoing conversation I have been having with a buddy of mine for probably close to a decade. Sometimes we are discussing young people. Other times just modern culture. Art. Culture post internet.
The general theme being we are losing something essential when we remove the process of seeking out information. For any other part of the body use it or lose it is just self-evident.
You'll see recommendations for the aging populace to do crossword puzzles or something, but little that addresses young people and what we aren't developing that we once did.
We don't really yet understand it.
I think of how often and how frustrating things were growing up that were on the tip of your tongue. A name. Song lyrics. What guy am I thinking about who used to play 3rd base for the Yankees when I was a kid with the mustache? Who was that girl you introduced me to that worked with your buddy with the muscle car at that place? Which place? That job you had when we were 16, I think it was a convenience store. Just random shit that got stuck on the tip of your tongue and you couldn't quite pull up.
Not curing world hunger or cancer. Just shit that made you frustrated you couldn't pull up instantly. If I got stuck it would interfere with my sleep. Just random things that required thinking really hard. Then you'd have to let it go because it wasn't coming and often it would pop into your head only after you quit dwelling on it.
I think anyone our age recalls that and remembers that process. And depending on what you were stuck on, it could be a week to resolve. You might not be able to frame the question to resolve it. Things you couldn't grab an encyclopedia and answer the next day.
My brain is always going, and it drove me crazy. Like I'd get a random thought at 4AM and get pissed and need to know this useless thing. Not because it was important, but because my brain wouldn't pop it out.
In almost all things, including the body, the process is where the vast majority of the benefit is derived. You go for a run or hike or play a game of tennis. Who wins or getting back to your car isn't the benefit. The process is what is healthy and you're building all the endurance and developing everything from the process.
I think about how that tip of the tongue frustration almost never happens anymore. Everything is a click away. I can't remember a person, I text a buddy, oh I will look at facebook and message someone and ask who you mean and they'll know. I can find almost anything in a minute. You can answer almost any question with minimal effort. Someone under 35 hardly ever had that sensation for beyond 5 minutes.
I wonder why late 20th century writers were so much worse than early 20th century writers. And both worse than 19th century writers. Why modern music is so weak when kids can take in every great artist instantly, and yet produce largely shit. Why our founders, often with little formal education, wrote with an insight completely lacking from all our modern Ivy grifters.
I think so much is gained from the process. The harder the process, something is built and developed and valued. Seeking out information developed something we don't yet understand.
I think that's true of almost all things, and now that perpetual present you speak of is really just a mental blankness borne of poor recall and a byproduct of something we no longer develop in young people. And even those of us who at one time developed it have quit using it to the degree we once did and find ourselves in a state of collective mental atrophy. What you knew just 3 years ago is quickly forgotten. Everything is dopamine. Quick fix shit. That part of our brain is overdeveloped like the arms of a young wheelchair bound kid, and everything else is like his atrophied legs.
When it becomes easier to do anything, we lose something gained from the struggle and process almost every time.
Flood people with enough nonsense, add in mental atrophy, and you can reintroduce Kamala and 90% of the country can't recall why she seemed like an idiot 3 years ago before Biden locked her in her office.
:facepalm
glgl
My brain is always going, and it drove me crazy. Like I'd get a random thought at 4AM and get pissed and need to know this useless thing. Not because it was important, but because my brain wouldn't pop it out.
It's funny you say that, I guess I am getting old, but I wake up in the 3am hour and random thoughts just enter my mind. Like what was my phone number when I was like 12, or what was my third grade teacher's name. I literally have to get up out of bed because I become almost obsessed. It's an infrequent occurrence, but it does happen. As the day goes on, say by the 10am hour I am like that was pretty stupid to give a shit about something so meaningless, but at 3am in the dark it makes sense. I try not to drink anymore, but when my mind races like that in the middle of the night the only thing that has a calming effect is some form of alcohol.
Trump appears to have weathered the Kamala surge. I expect he will be anywhere from 3-5 points down after the DNC next week. He can make it up though pretty easily in the debates when she gets off the teleprompter. People forget just how unlikable she is. Give it time. If she can only be a couple points up after this 100% media coronation, you know this is a fleeting moment.
General Election: Trump vs. Harris
FOX News
Harris 49, Trump 50
Trump
+1
General Election: Trump vs. Harris vs. Kennedy vs. Stein vs. West
FOX News
Harris 45, Trump 45, Kennedy 6, Stein 1, West 1
Tie
Trump has definitely stopped the bleed. He is probably a point or two down which is fine, Harris needs to be close to 4 points nationally to take the Electoral College. Keep in mind Clinton won the popular vote by 3.5 points and Biden took it by around 4 points. I am telling you, Kamala's dancing on stage at the DNC with her fake smile will backfire. Whatever bump she gets will last maybe a week, if that.
General Election: Trump vs. Harris
Rasmussen Reports
Harris 45, Trump 49
Trump
+4
General Election: Trump vs. Harris vs. Kennedy vs. Stein vs. West
Rasmussen Reports
Harris 44, Trump 48, Kennedy 4, Stein 1, West 0
Trump
+4
Michigan: Trump vs. Harris
Fabrizio/Anzalone
Harris 48, Trump 48
Tie
Michigan: Trump vs. Harris vs. Kennedy vs. West vs. Stein
Fabrizio/Anzalone
Harris 43, Trump 45, Kennedy 6, Stein 1, West 1
Trump
+2
Things looks like they settled down.
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Harris
Emerson
Trump 49, Harris 48
Trump
+1
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Harris vs. Kennedy vs. West vs. Stein
Emerson
Harris 47, Trump 47, Kennedy 3, Stein 0, West 0
Tie
These polls make no sense whatsoever. How can Trump be down 2 points in NC and up 4 in Georgia? Then up in Nevada in a state not carried by Repubs in 20 years. I think there is a 0% chance Trump loses NC. And 0% chance he wins Nevada. I am trying to find a US book that will take NC money for Trump, that has to be the easiest bet ever.
Georgia: Trump vs. Harris
NY Times/Siena
Trump 50, Harris 46
Trump
+4
Nevada: Trump vs. Harris
NY Times/Siena
Trump 48, Harris 47
Trump
+1
North Carolina: Trump vs. Harris
NY Times/Siena
Trump 47, Harris 49
Harris
+2
Trumps losing North Carolina..
https://x.com/ArgoJournal/status/1824794795471970360
zero chance this person doesnt lurk this site
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GVMZsl_b...jpg&name=large
Take a page from PLOP’s political wagering scrapbook, tgull. Plop gave zero shits about sides. He just saw the board clearly. That is his edge imo.
Whether apathy is a millenial thing or simply a quality you work at and cultivate idk. Works for him.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Yeah, but you have not been following the fact Trump wants to abolish the Fed, which he can do relatively easily. He just needs a simple majority in both chambers, its not like its a constitutional amendment. I am not sure why people think the Fed is some type of sacrosanct entity. It's a few people who think they are smarter than everyone else on the economy. They were smart this last go around taking a dozen eggs from .99 to 3.49. But whatever, most Fed Presidents are pro choice and that is what matters.
i almost want to see what would happen when trump fired the economist money nerds and just started firing off policy changes willy nilly.
If you think for one second that Wall Street will allow Trump any control over the Fed, you’re out of your fucking mind.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgullQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Yeah, but you have not been following the fact Trump wants to abolish the Fed, which he can do relatively easily. He just needs a simple majority in both chambers, it’s not like it’s a constitutional amendment. I am not sure why people think the Fed is some type of sacrosanct entity. It's a few people who think they are smarter than everyone else on the economy. They were smart this last go around taking a dozen eggs from .99 to 3.49. But whatever, most Fed Presidents are pro choice and that is what matters.
https://x.com/joma_gc/status/1824507654741348501Quote:
Originally Posted by garrett
Guys she is dominating in North Carolina. She is definitely up at least the 4 point margins the NYT poll shows for Wisconsin and Pennsylvania as well.
Tgull, assuming Druff will escrow I'll bet you $500 straight up Harris beats Trump. Step up my guy.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
LOL, no offense my left wing Seattle friend, but $500 is not worth my time. I make and lose $500 on the stock market by 9:32am on a Monday morning on Crowdstrike. You might want to ping Cleatus, he might give you some low stake action.Quote:
Originally Posted by tony bagadonutsTgull, assuming Druff will escrow I'll bet you $500 straight up Harris beats Trump. Step up my guy.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
:lolQuote:
Originally Posted by tgullLOL, no offense my left wing Seattle friend, but $500 is not worth my time. I make and lose $500 on the stock market by 9:32am on a Monday morning on Crowdstrike. You might want to ping Cleatus, he might give you some low stake action.Quote:
Originally Posted by tony bagadonuts
I figured that might be a little rich for you.
Left wing??? Your TDS is off the charts bro. I think Harris is going to win but make no mistake I think she's TERRIBLE. But thanks to you and the rest of the MAGA nuts she's likely going to win.
The bright side will be hopefully Trump gets remanded to the scrapheap of history and we can rebuild a sane Republican party up from the studs.
You live in Seattle and have been corroded. It's been a systemic infiltration of liberalism. You just got worn down, you have changed.Quote:
Originally Posted by tony bagadonuts:lolQuote:
Originally Posted by tgull
I figured that might be a little rich for you.
Left wing??? Your TDS is off the charts bro. I think Harris is going to win but make no mistake I think she's TERRIBLE. But thanks to you and the rest of the MAGA nuts she's likely going to win.
The bright side will be hopefully Trump gets remanded to the scrapheap of history and we can rebuild a sane Republican party up from the studs.
You got a binary choice of Harris who will surround herself with some of the biggest freaks on the planet, or Trump who will actually put reasonable people around him. Neither of the candidates will call the shots. Harris is too fucking dumb, and Trump candidly is too old. So who will pick the better staff? You are just on the wrong side Tony. And no $500 is pocket change to me. But I am glad you decided on the forums what we all believe and knew all along: You are with her, congrats now go sip some Chardonnay with your Washington state neighbors and sit around telling each other how smart you are. So long old friend.
Well, I heard Mister Young sing about her
Well, I heard ol' Neil put her down
Well, I hope Neil Young will remember
A Southern man don't need him around anyhow
I was just watching the professor of rock YouTube on Sweet home Alabama and Neil Young.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dHKOsHfEn2M&t=1038s
Polymarket just saw a surge for Trump he is now even, 49-49 with Harris. A few days ago he was down by 7.
This is the race as of today. Keep in mind Biden and Clinton were up by double digits in 2016 and 2020 at this same point. I expect after a certain debate implosion by Harris in early September Trump will take a big lead and never look back. She really needs to up by 10 points by now and she is not even close. This is a terrible poll for Harris.
National Multi-Candidate
ABC News/Wash Post
Harris 47, Trump 44, Kennedy 5, Stein 1, West 1
Harris
+3
Going to be hilarious when this reverses in September. She needs to be up 10 points by now. I am telling you place your bets now. I have $10,000 on the line and increasing my position. My guess is when Trump is sentenced to 3 years in prison in late September, he will be up by 5 points. And it will increase from there.
National Multi-Candidate
CBS News
Harris 49, Trump 47, Kennedy 2, Stein 1, West 0
Harris
+2
Betting markets have started trending back towards Trump. If you were planning on waiting for better odds, it seriously might not happen. Normally a convention bounce even for terrible candidates is a given, but with this clusterfuck it's not.
These polls from a couple weeks ago are from the most accurate pollster in 2020 - even they still had a liberal bias of around 2 points on average. The only ones that came even close were Trafalgar and the TIPP polls. Reading through the bias of the latest polls still has the math come out to the same thing as these - Trump is very likely polling ahead of her in the popular vote by somewhere around 1.5 points.
https://x.com/atlas_intel/status/1817307787761737763
Quote:
Originally Posted by VaughnP
i think this is why:
https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status...80164408910074
"So let's just assume Michigan and Wisconsin go blue, and North Carolina and Georgia go red. That means we're at 251-251. With only Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada left, there is no scenario for either candidate to win without Pennsylvania.
You don't run to be President of the United States. You run to be President of 25,000 undecided voters in Pennsylvania. That's the whole ball game. Nothing more, nothing less. Kamala could lose 1.9 million votes in New York and gain 1 vote in Pennsylvania relative to Biden in 2020 and she is the better candidate for all intents and purposes. Same goes for Trump."
I was watching this
https://www.trunews.com/video-articl...efore-november
Donalds Trump is $100 million in debt to that crazy lady and leticia James. Sept 18th Trump is going to get sent to Rikers Island.
The scotus case did not save Trump.
They will replace Trump w Nikki Haley because polling shows she will kick Kamala's ass.
You sports bettors need to get ahead on this.
Book it
Imo there's no way they had all those phony cases to let Trump stay in the race. Merchan is not going to show any mercy. His shocking bias hasd been plasin as day the whole trime.
God help us.
Someone explain to me why Trump isn't just as likely, honestly even more likely, to win Wisconsin as he is Pennsylvania based on what we are seeing with the current polling in comparison to past polling "errors"/bias?
These cluster states are all inter-connected now. But I do agree about PA, it really is a true swing state. 50% of the population borders deep blue and 50% borders deep red. Assuming PA is the deciding factor, and it most likely is, it really comes down to which side gets their base out. I think in this election, Trump will get his base out more than Harris. She simply is not black enough. Her father was an Islander from Jamaica, her moms was an Indian. She is not some soul sister, I mean FFS she she is married to a rich Jewish white lawyer. She will get out the Black women, but the black guy is not going to wait in line to vote for her. This is not Obama, this is a woman who looks a lot more white than black. And she certainly acts a lot more white than black. Like I said she married a white Jewish lawyer and that is about the least black thing a black woman can do.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by VaughnP
i think this is why:
https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status...80164408910074
"So let's just assume Michigan and Wisconsin go blue, and North Carolina and Georgia go red. That means we're at 251-251. With only Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada left, there is no scenario for either candidate to win without Pennsylvania.
You don't run to be President of the United States. You run to be President of 25,000 undecided voters in Pennsylvania. That's the whole ball game. Nothing more, nothing less. Kamala could lose 1.9 million votes in New York and gain 1 vote in Pennsylvania relative to Biden in 2020 and she is the better candidate for all intents and purposes. Same goes for Trump."
Obviously an awful poll for Harris, trailing a Senator by 8 points, in a state Biden won by 10, well it's a problem for her(she). Be interesting how much Trump is up next month when this media coronation is over. When she gets down in the polls, she will do a media interview blitz which will certainly destroy her campaign.
Tuesday, August 20
Virginia: Trump vs. Harris
Roanoke College
Harris 47, Trump 44
Harris
+3
Virginia: Trump vs. Harris vs. Kennedy vs. West vs. Stein
Roanoke College
Harris 45, Trump 42, Kennedy 6, West 2, Stein 0
Harris
+3
Virginia Senate - Cao vs. Kaine
Roanoke College
Kaine 49, Cao 38
Kaine
+11
Ex-Nikki Haley voters rally behind Kamala Harris: ‘I picked the side that had the least issues’
gonna be hearing that logic a lot.
Those people were never voting for Trump anyway. A lot of 2016 Never Trumpers have the exact same quotes today as they did in 2016. I am not sure why Democrats got orgasmic when some former obscure congressman says he/she is voting for Harris. They are out of work because they got primaried out of a job. Now they have to go into the private sector and they are really struggling because they really for the most part are incapable. And I mean that for both sides of the aisle.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
"CHICAGO (Reuters) - The founder of the main outside spending group backing Kamala Harris' presidential bid says their own opinion polling is less "rosy" than public polls suggest and warned that Democrats"
https://x.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1825773671194968162
You don't say.
https://x.com/Pro__Trading/status/1825724208472895977
Hint: besides Trafalgar, which is paid for by Republicans, one of the firms used to conduct real, unbiased internal polling for both sides has been posted in this thread.