No it can't, because it's not real.Quote:
Originally Posted by mulva
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No it can't, because it's not real.Quote:
Originally Posted by mulva
:siren
I am making the following changes to my forecast:
Pennsylvania Safe D -> Lean D
Wisconsin Safe D -> Lean D
Arizona Lean D -> Tilt D
Ohio Tossup -> Tilt R
Montana Senate Tilt R -> Lean R
Plop given those ratings changes all favor Trump; are you slightly less bullish on Biden now?Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
Also do you still feel MN D is free money?
Yes, given how important PA is. But I mean, I'm going from Trump having a 10% chance to a 15% chance. So I'm still a big buyer at all these prices (if i wasn't maxed out). I think what Trump did at the debate was stop the bleeding at the margins, but it won't be enough to change the outcome of the election.Quote:
Originally Posted by SheesfacedPlop given those ratings changes all favor Trump; are you slightly less bullish on Biden now?Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
Also do you still feel MN D is free money?
And yes, MN is still free money. It's as safe D as it gets. I won't encourage stealing, but you should beg and borrow to bet on Minnesota.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOLYes, given how important PA is. But I mean, I'm going from Trump having a 10% chance to a 15% chance. So I'm still a big buyer at all these prices (if i wasn't maxed out). I think what Trump did at the debate was stop the bleeding at the margins, but it won't be enough to change the outcome of the election.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sheesfaced
And yes, MN is still free money. It's as safe D as it gets. I won't encourage stealing, but you should beg and borrow to bet on Minnesota.
I think your perspective of the Presidential election mostly from a betting perspective is great, a fun read. And I don't think I really ever actually knew, that much about you, and your a smart dude, with a real unique perspective on things actually. Anyway I been liking the PLOL betting posts/perspective this year for sure man...
I think Biden is a live dawg and if you can get good plus odds on Biden, its at least a sweat come election night....
aight PLOP emptied the the rest of my predictit account on MN...ill fire more bullets with you if sports cooperate this weekend...Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOLYes, given how important PA is. But I mean, I'm going from Trump having a 10% chance to a 15% chance. So I'm still a big buyer at all these prices (if i wasn't maxed out). I think what Trump did at the debate was stop the bleeding at the margins, but it won't be enough to change the outcome of the election.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sheesfaced
And yes, MN is still free money. It's as safe D as it gets. I won't encourage stealing, but you should beg and borrow to bet on Minnesota.
let's fucking get this money!
Newb question but for MN makes more sense to buy republican no than buy Dem yes correct?Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOLYes, given how important PA is. But I mean, I'm going from Trump having a 10% chance to a 15% chance. So I'm still a big buyer at all these prices (if i wasn't maxed out). I think what Trump did at the debate was stop the bleeding at the margins, but it won't be enough to change the outcome of the election.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sheesfaced
And yes, MN is still free money. It's as safe D as it gets. I won't encourage stealing, but you should beg and borrow to bet on Minnesota.
N/M disregard its obviously yes
That's correct, you should bid Rep NO for 69 cents. 68 cents if you're feeling greedy. Looking at the order book the 69s should get filled fairly quickly. The 68s will be a longer wait.Quote:
Originally Posted by SheesfacedNewb question but for MN makes more sense to buy republican no than buy Dem yes correct?Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
Quote:
Originally Posted by SheesfacedNewb question but for MN makes more sense to buy republican no than buy Dem yes correct?Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
Minneapolis-St Paul is where that white cop killed that black dude which kind of started this whole mess we have today in ways, so the belief is there will be some sort of Democratic/Liberal uprising and win in and around MN. If MN goes Biden blue and it could, that is another way I could see Trump in bad shape election night. But this is fun stuff, election night it will all unfold lol..
Over 50,000,000 people and 1/3 of the overall electorate already voted. When, exactly, is burisma going to come back to bite biden again? 2024?Quote:
Originally Posted by mulva
I sure hope trump doesn’t bring it up at the debates.
Again: It won't, because it isn't real.Quote:
Originally Posted by blakeOver 50,000,000 people and 1/3 of the overall electorate already voted. When, exactly, is burisma going to come back to bite biden again? 2024?Quote:
Originally Posted by mulva
I sure hope trump doesn’t bring it up at the debates.
Anybody who believes this was already voting for Trump because they have been groomed to swallow anything the right wing lie machine spews out in much the same way that OSA has groomed himself to swallow the filthy loads spewed out by one anonymous grindr date after another.
Nobody who lives in reality believes it, because at the risk of repeating myself, it isn't real.
just like Russia right?Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter SobchakAgain: It won't, because it isn't real.Quote:
Originally Posted by blake
Anybody who believes this was already voting for Trump because they have been groomed to swallow anything the right wing lie machine spews out in much the same way that OSA has groomed himself to swallow the filthy loads spewed out by one anonymous grindr date after another.
Nobody who lives in reality believes it, because at the risk of repeating myself, it isn't real.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
:lol
u in the red yet moron??
Quote:
Originally Posted by thesidedish
Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOLHolding my ground fighting off this MAGA-waveQuote:
Originally Posted by thesidedish
Portfolio Value $18,124.69
Gain/Loss + $3,800.42
u cant be up more than $300 gimpy
A little over $600 but does any of that really matter if you're just sitting on your positions for the next 11 days. It literally just shows unrealized G/LQuote:
Originally Posted by thesidedishQuote:
Originally Posted by PLOLHolding my ground fighting off this MAGA-waveQuote:
Originally Posted by thesidedish
Portfolio Value $18,124.69
Gain/Loss + $3,800.42
u cant be up more than $300 gimpy
are u gonna be able to pay me moron??
https://www.270towin.com/maps/RAYQX
You posting a map you created is very convincing.Quote:
Originally Posted by thesidedish
Trump traded up to a 36% chance that he will pardon himself a couple days ago. This is... too high. If Biden wins, this market will probably see another spike and I will likely be moving some money into this market post-election (on the NO side).
https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...his-first-term
There's also this market, "Will Trump complete his first term". I think the conspiracy theory here is Trump will resign and let Mike Pence pardon him. The "yes" side here is pretty free money:
https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...his-first-term
Some other pardon/clemency markets:
Giuliani (13%)
https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...re-end-of-2020
Manafort (49%)
https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...his-first-term
Flynn (35%)
https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...his-first-term
All of these markets expire on January 20th
^^^ Excellent post right there.
I agree with all of it.
The only downsides:
- These are all favorite bets, so the withdrawal fees (on top of the profit fees) will kill you if you need to deposit to make these bets
- They don't resolve until January 20, which kinda blows
But I have to think all of these are free money. If I could parlay them all, I would. (Maybe it would be considered a correlated parlay, but it's a moot point since you can't anyway.)
I would watch out with Biden bets for Arizona.
I'm not sure if Arizona is ready to flip yet. Trump won by 3.5% in 2016, which is a fairly big margin, and he was forecasted as a "tossup" almost all pollsters. They got Arizona very wrong.
Of course, if you think Trump is going to lose there, this is the time to fire, as you can get almost even money (53 cents for Biden right now on PredictIt, which is the lowest it's been in several months. I should have bet Biden NO at 30c on October 7, which I considered, but chickened out.
Quote:
Originally Posted by thesidedishQuote:
Originally Posted by PLOLHolding my ground fighting off this MAGA-waveQuote:
Originally Posted by thesidedish
Portfolio Value $18,124.69
Gain/Loss + $3,800.42
u cant be up more than $300 gimpy
Portfolio Value$18,745.98
Gain/Loss + $4,421.71
:TRAIN
im officially up in every market. i f'd up early maxxing out on WI, always been a pain in the ass
Which party will win Wisconsin in the 2020 presidential election?
Market Investment $1,699.64
Gain/Loss +$5.30
Quote:
Originally Posted by thesidedishBe sure to hold it all until after election day to maximize profit. Don't lose your balls and sell out early.Quote:
Originally Posted by thesidedishQuote:
Originally Posted by PLOLHolding my ground fighting off this MAGA-wave
Portfolio Value $18,124.69
Gain/Loss + $3,800.42
u cant be up more than $300 gimpy
Portfolio Value$18,745.98
Gain/Loss + $4,421.71
:TRAIN
Quote:
Originally Posted by thesidedish
Wisconsion is Republican generally, now this election could it go Democratic it could I guess lol.
Probably wont but it is possible maybe. Wisconsin is wealthy to rich, white American place in a pretty good State actually, a Red State, so this Wisconsin could go 'Blue' is actually funny lol... Wisconsin is a 'well-to-do', wealthy white group there in Wisconsin lol.... Wisconsin is not a City State either perse-, like a New Jersey, small but lotta big cities, that's not true of Wisky at all actually. Its much more down home America in ways I guess. The real fabric that is that of The U.S.A I guess maybe lol...
I'm sure this is known already by the people who need to know it here.
Biden dropped paid advertising in Texas today
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QuJroujjYDk
Druff knew a few chicks from True Poker that were from San Antonio Texas.
All Fat Bitches live in San Antonio and Druff switched them to Republicans.
That was are only shot San Antonio..
Fucking 900 #s and Chat Rooms from the late 80's Early 90's killed the dream.
At least we still have Greenfield in Iowa
Thank you, Texas!
@PLOL - I have an interesting data point I found.
https://sos.iowa.gov/youth/poll/results.aspx
30,000+ Iowa High School and Middle School students
First, LOL Kanye
Second, we know kids tend to have their parents political beliefs or are a bit more Liberal.
Third, not sure it means a ton but I think it's a larger sample than any of the polls and runs counter to most of the other Iowa polling.
Curious your thoughts?
It's a very silly poll. Higher sample size does not equal greater accuracy in polling. That's not what makes a poll scientific. If I recall correctly Clinton won the Nickelodeon "Kids Pick The President" Election, which they used to tout as being super predictive lol. Having said that, I am not surprised that a bunch of children voted for the candidate who acts like a child.Quote:
Originally Posted by abrown83
Edit: I just looked it up and there were 90,000 "votes" in the Nickelodeon kids poll. Biden won by 6 points. Do I think that's relevant? No, I do not.
Btw, I like the "YES" side here on "Will either candidate concede the election by November 17th". Trading near 50/50. I would dump it when the returns come in if it goes to like 85.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6906
Here's the key phrasing in the rules:
Quote:
PredictIt’s determination shall be based on either of the following: a) a public, unconditional and unambiguous concession by Trump himself or Biden himself or b) media reports, that PredictIt in its sole discretion deems reliable, of an unconditional and unambiguous concession by either candidate personally.
I think Trump will try to put a giant asterisk on his loss but will still concede, and then a bunch of people will argue over the wording of "unconditional and unambiguous". This is why I would dump it before expiration. But I don't think there will be a drawn out court battle, which seems to be the intent of the market.
Bovada still has Biden +125 in Florida. If the line in Florida hasn't moved on your book, you may want to go bet it NOW. It's likely to move down as soon as the books price in the Monmouth and Marist polls that dropped today.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
I would have guessed you would have been saying to jump on Ohio
Hope you listened. It dropped to +110 (still good value btw)Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
Placed some pinata (randomly assigned) bets for giggles on Trump EVs. Basically bet $5 each time and I win 500 if it comes true.
Here are the values I have, is there any chance I win $500 or did I lose $90?
Less than 80
140-142
224-226
260-262
296-298
302-304
305-307
311-313
329-331
335-337
344-346
368-370
374-376
392-394
425-427
428-430
I guess this could happen. Though 259 is way more likely as Nebraska's 2nd district is very likely to go to Biden. Fun sweat tho. There's always surprises on election day that could make the map go wonky and randomly hit one of your brackets.
Entertaining podcast. Funny and likable hosts. Thx again, PLOL
Do you have any other podcast you’d recommend? I am being very careful about getting turned around by the CNN’s and Fox.
You hear Bezos is a possible CNN buyer? My my
Glad you enjoyed, I agree the MAGA episode was a good one. Always good to hear the logic of the people on the other side of a lot of my trades to validate or cast doubt on my own theories. I also stay away from CNN and network news usually. Every other person they have on is a surrogate trying to spin for their side. Most of it is just noise. I didn't know Bezos was looking to buy CNN. That's probably not greatQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Entertaining podcast. Funny and likable hosts. Thx again, PLOL
Do you have any other podcast you’d recommend? I am being very careful about getting turned around by the CNN’s and Fox.
You hear Bezos is a possible CNN buyer? My my
I know Luckbox Magazine also has a political trading podcast. I haven't listened to it, but somebody in my InTrade refugees group (@ssupak) talked about being on it. Can't recommend it because I haven't listened yet, but I would imagine it's good if you're itching to listen to something similar:
https://luckboxmagazine.com/tpt/epis...-and-subscribe
for all the stupid reach bets and odds you get on either candidate all you have to do is bet trump to take florida to bail out every other awful bet you made.
3 more days. Working hard! Thank you!
if you guess this could happen you must be lol'ng at 538.Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOLI guess this could happen. Though 259 is way more likely as Nebraska's 2nd district is very likely to go to Biden. Fun sweat tho. There's always surprises on election day that could make the map go wonky and randomly hit one of your brackets.
and if you could guess this could happen you're also sweating penn which will put trump over the top
This is a /very/ bad Iowa poll for Biden. Selzer/DMR is the gold standard for Iowa polling.
I don't think that's what will happen, bro. I'm saying it's the most realistic scenario for Simp to his his 3 point EV margin bet. I think FL, NC, AZ, and NE-02 will go blue.Quote:
Originally Posted by mulvaif you guess this could happen you must be lol'ng at 538.Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOLI guess this could happen. Though 259 is way more likely as Nebraska's 2nd district is very likely to go to Biden. Fun sweat tho. There's always surprises on election day that could make the map go wonky and randomly hit one of your brackets.
and if you could guess this could happen you're also sweating penn which will put trump over the top