Main event hands

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Originally Posted by Headshot

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Another hand earlier:

Blinds 100/200
I have QsTs and make it 500. One flatter in late pos, one call from SB.

Flop KhJh3s

I consider check/calling, but both players up against me aren't very aggro and I feel they won't raise me with most holdings, so I'm better off representing a hand for later trapping purposes if I hit.

I fire like 1100, late pos calls, SB folds.

I am thinking in my head, "Offsuit 9 on turn please, offsuit 9 on turn please!"

Turn: 9d

:yes

I consider check-raising but my opponent is on the passive side and I'm afraid he won't semi-bluff a flush draw. So I fire 4k into him. He calls.

River: Ah

Awful.

That card sucks for two reasons. It makes the flush, and it scares my opponent in several ways if he DOESN'T have the flush.

I consider value-betting and then folding to a raise, but I am so concerned he was calling down with a flush draw (sure looked like it) that I decided just to check and probably call if he bet.

He immediately checked and turned over KsJs for top 2. Action killer river, for sure, but should I have bet it? I still think check/calling was probably the right play there.

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I think the river is a bet/fold too. Did you think he was calling down with FD because he would have raised his made hands, seems like it would be the other way around?? A hand like this plays different in NL than in limit, where call downs are more frequent. Also, why does he have to have an FD? Can't this mutt have like K10 a lot?

Regardless, I think you bet to get value out of all his non fd hands (there's a lot more combos of them than FD's) and fold pretty safely to reraise, as 99% of the time this player isn't doing that without a good flush.

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BTW this guy was 100% just calling down on flop/turn with heart draw. That's the type of player he was.

Of the 5 tough hands I faced, this one bothers me the least.

So of the 6 difficult or cooler hands:

AA vs AQ on AQx board: I checked turn, should have bet it.

QT vs KJhh on KhJhx9dAh board: I checked river, still think I made right play, but it's close.

K7 vs ?? on K764 2 club board: I think I was against 66 and made the right fold. Don't regret this one.

AQ vs ?? on 332Q board: I raised flop, bet turn, folded to check raise. I should have flatted flop, checked turn, called river.

Q8 vs AdKh on 8d3d8hTd2s board: I raised flop, called turn, folded to river shove. I should have shipped on turn.

AT vs 55 on AT59 board: I put the guy in to turn check-raise. Don't regret this one, as I didn't have enough chips to fold.

Tough day, amirite?

Imagine all of these tough hands in less than 10 hours (we're talking live, where it moves slowly and you don't get many hands in).

BTW I think my laydowns with the K7 and the AQ probably set up this guy with the AK to bluff me, as I might have looked like a middle-aged-white-guy-folder to him, and today he was actually right about that.

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Originally Posted by SpewArtist

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

What do you guys think of that Qs8s hand?

Was that an automatic call or ship on turn?

Don't Monday morning quarterback. Try to ignore what he had and answer what you would do in that spot. Also keep in mind this is the Main Event, where the structure is slow, so folding and keeping 25k leaves you a lot of room to still play. (However, it doesn't leave you any room for tight laydowns anymore, which is why I busted AT top two to that old guy's 555.)

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It's a super tough spot on the river and honestly I would probably find a fold as well. Like it looks like he just has a flush, I mean what hands is he bluffing with? I can't think of one. (His call on the flop is terrible IMO so I wouldn't expect him to have the bare Ad ever), but props to him for at least turning it into a bluff like he did. You have Qs8s so you obviously don't block any diamonds. I don't like shipping turn because its a way ahead, way behind spot. You're almost never getting called by worse (AA w/Ad or KK w/Kd maybe the only hands), but I forgot what the action was pre so maybe he can't even have those. It sucks though because you're like at the tippy-top of your range and this is almost the best hand you can have given the action but it's just so hard to give the guy a bluff in this spot.

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I think the key to this hand is that your opponent is already a confirmed spaz.. is he really looking to get involved with a random flush draw on a paired board, often time everyone misses those kinds of flops so they're good to attack. Seems like he might think it was a decent spot to bluff.

I understand the diamond on the turn freaking you out a little and I'm fine the the just call the turn. Btw, what range do you think he has you on at this point?? I'm certain it includes A LOT of hands that are much worse than 8x.

I think your hand is too strong to fold on a blank river. I could see him semi-bluff the turn with the Ad and planning to spaz most rivers, because that's what the spaz's do..

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Well that makes me feel a bit better, but the problem is that the guy I was up against had just played like an idiot in a prior hand, and believe me, that was on my mind.

I see this shit in limit holdem all the time. Someone picks up a draw on the turn (often an NL player who doesn't understand LHE), and they fire out at me. And I raise them every time because I know they are full of shit, even in a tournament. Now, I realize this is NL, but I just saw this guy as the type who is going to fire with AA or AT with Ad, and I so badly wanted to ship on him, because I know 100% he's calling. This is NOT the type of player who will fold out of fear of drawing dead/thin.

At the same time, I'm just thinking, shit, what if he had A8 or a small flush and doesn't want me checking back, so he wants to make sure I pay for whatever I have that's behind but might catch up with a diamond.

But I still should have shipped the turn, given I was likely to have 7 outs or be ahead. If I shipped and got busted by the 4th diamond, I feel crappy but walk away knowing I did the right thing.

Calling the all-in on the river was tougher, but I still think I should have. But maybe I'd be sitting here feeling like a dumbass if he showed Jd9d or A8 and I busted with my Q8.

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I really think he's going to turn over a flush or tens full like 95% of the time when you call the river here. He just ended up having that other 5% spazz range this time. Like I said before it's almost impossible for him to have a bluff here, like he has to have the exact hand he had (after making an atrocious bet/call on the flop first) to be bluffing here and then decide to take this line. Now that I think about it, maybe shipping turn is slightly better, you def protect your hand against 1 card diamond hands and get some value esp if he is going to snap with AAd or KKd. And at least you won't wind up in the spot you did on the river. Still though, this hand was wp by you IMO.

To be honest, I played way better last year than I did this year in the Main.

Last year I was really a boss with seeing when I was behind and getting out of the way, along with not letting people push me off the better hand. (I made a tough AK high for a lot of chips call last year, and was correct, for example.)

I think that's why I flipped out so badly when I went overboard with that AK so close to the money, after I had really played everything so well for almost 3 full days.

Today I just kept making one bad decision after another (albeit on tough hands) and it did me in.

I actually think last year's good performance (even though I didn't cash) somehow hurt me this year, as I didn't have my "A" game and wasn't nearly as good at putting opponents on hands as I was in 2013. The same intuition that almost got me to a cash last year with mediocre cards wasn't present today, and that's why I am out of the event.

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Originally Posted by SpewArtist

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Well that makes me feel a bit better, but the problem is that the guy I was up against had just played like an idiot in a prior hand, and believe me, that was on my mind.

I see this shit in limit holdem all the time. Someone picks up a draw on the turn (often an NL player who doesn't understand LHE), and they fire out at me. And I raise them every time because I know they are full of shit, even in a tournament. Now, I realize this is NL, but I just saw this guy as the type who is going to fire with AA or AT with Ad, and I so badly wanted to ship on him, because I know 100% he's calling. This is NOT the type of player who will fold out of fear of drawing dead/thin.

At the same time, I'm just thinking, shit, what if he had A8 or a small flush and doesn't want me checking back, so he wants to make sure I pay for whatever I have that's behind but might catch up with a diamond.

But I still should have shipped the turn, given I was likely to have 7 outs or be ahead. If I shipped and got busted by the 4th diamond, I feel crappy but walk away knowing I did the right thing.

Calling the all-in on the river was tougher, but I still think I should have. But maybe I'd be sitting here feeling like a dumbass if he showed Jd9d or A8 and I busted with my Q8.

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I really think he's going to turn over a flush or tens full like 95% of the time when you call the river here. He just ended up having that other 5% spazz range this time. Like I said before it's almost impossible for him to have a bluff here, like he has to have the exact hand he had (after making an atrocious bet/call on the flop first) to be bluffing here and then decide to take this line. Now that I think about it, maybe shipping turn is slightly better, you def protect your hand against 1 card diamond hands and get some value esp if he is going to snap with AAd or KKd. And at least you won't wind up in the spot you did on the river. Still though, this hand was wp by you IMO.

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Not 95% of the time, and I didn't think tens because with those he's not worried about me hitting the flush on the river, so he lets me hang myself.

A8 and a small/medium flush were my concern. I was really thinking he had AA or AT with the Ad. I should have gone with my gut. I have to admit that 2012's memory was hurting me here. I busted by making a dumb hero call with AA (really should have laid down the river, even with short chips) and I felt like a massive retard getting so far and busting by making a bad all-in call. I think that's the second-worst way to bust. The only worse feeling is spewing off your chips like a moron and getting called to bust (which this guy was seconds away from having happen, btw).

Anyway I was thinking it would be 2012 all over again, and he would show me A8 or a flush, and I would walk away like a dummy who threw away 40k with Q8 trips with a flush on the board. So I'm thinking, "Instead of being this dummy, I should give myself a chance to get my money in a better spot."

Not a big fan of gambling it up too much in the early stages of the Main (given the slow structure), but given the overaggression this guy showed, I should have just shipped the Q8 on him, hoped not to see a flush, and known that I would have outs if he had anything but TT.

Wow, I just realized I had 10 outs against a flush, not 7. One 8, three 3s, three 10s, three Qs. I don't know why that didn't come to mind when he bet into me. So I wasn't even crushed big time against any hand but TT or T8 (unlikely).

Had 10 outs against a flush, 7 outs against 33, and 10 outs to win or chop against A8 or K8. Yes I was also risking getting sucked out on even if ahead, but still I should have shoved the turn. That was the right spot to gamble, especially since TT and T8 were the only awful things to see, and I didn't think either were likely.

Fuck. Funny how I took several minutes to decide what to do but never calculated my outs. Guess it was the stress of the moment screwing with my head.

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Originally Posted by SpewArtist

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Well that makes me feel a bit better, but the problem is that the guy I was up against had just played like an idiot in a prior hand, and believe me, that was on my mind.

I see this shit in limit holdem all the time. Someone picks up a draw on the turn (often an NL player who doesn't understand LHE), and they fire out at me. And I raise them every time because I know they are full of shit, even in a tournament. Now, I realize this is NL, but I just saw this guy as the type who is going to fire with AA or AT with Ad, and I so badly wanted to ship on him, because I know 100% he's calling. This is NOT the type of player who will fold out of fear of drawing dead/thin.

At the same time, I'm just thinking, shit, what if he had A8 or a small flush and doesn't want me checking back, so he wants to make sure I pay for whatever I have that's behind but might catch up with a diamond.

But I still should have shipped the turn, given I was likely to have 7 outs or be ahead. If I shipped and got busted by the 4th diamond, I feel crappy but walk away knowing I did the right thing.

Calling the all-in on the river was tougher, but I still think I should have. But maybe I'd be sitting here feeling like a dumbass if he showed Jd9d or A8 and I busted with my Q8.

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I really think he's going to turn over a flush or tens full like 95% of the time when you call the river here. He just ended up having that other 5% spazz range this time. Like I said before it's almost impossible for him to have a bluff here, like he has to have the exact hand he had (after making an atrocious bet/call on the flop first) to be bluffing here and then decide to take this line. Now that I think about it, maybe shipping turn is slightly better, you def protect your hand against 1 card diamond hands and get some value esp if he is going to snap with AAd or KKd. And at least you won't wind up in the spot you did on the river. Still though, this hand was wp by you IMO.

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Upon analyzing this after the fact, I'm convinced a ship on turn (especially given the player) was 100% correct, but failing to do that made the river call a lot harder, and at that point calling is a different story.

But when I called the turn I should have committed to call the river without a diamond hitting, which was the purpose of only calling, and then I chickened out.

Also it was a lot easier to ship on this guy because I only had 39k going in which, while a very playable stack at that point, wasn't big by any means, and I wasn't risking shooting off a big stack against another big stack.

So like, if we both had 90k in this spot and this hand plays out, I think it's a lot more reasonable and probably correct to call turn/fold river.

But here the upside is winning a big pot and sitting on 75k, and the downside is busting, but I think there's enough of a chance I'm winning (and getting the call with the naked Ad) that it was totally the right move to do it, and hope to either fade the diamond or catch up with likely 10 outs if behind.

If I counted all 10 outs at the time, I would have shipped the turn. I made that call too quickly. I took my time before folding river (which I agree, SpewArtist, wasn't a bad decision), but I didn't think enough on the turn. I should have stopped, counted my outs, gone with my gut about him having Ad and otherwise behind, and shipped.

Tournaments are depressing. Glad I don't have any more until next year. I'm burnt out already.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

I've had 4 difficult hands this day 1.

Here are 2 that happened in the past hour. I don't think anyone at the table reads this forum, and the day is just 2 hours away from being over, so fuck it.

Hand #1:
BB with Kd7d
150/300/25
50k stack

UTG makes it 700. 2 cold callers. You call 400.

Flop Kc7s6c
You check
UTG bets 1400
Cutoff folds
Button (white guy, 50s with about 70k) makes it 3200
You re-pop to 8k
UTG grimaces and folds after thinking
Button calls

Turn 4d
You bet 12k
Button makes it 25k

You have 29k behind.

??????

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Start talking to the guy......say, "I dont know what to do......Sir, whats the fastest you have ever gotten knocked out of the main event?"

"Uh, this is my first time"

Look him up and down and see if he looks like some fucking rube whose home game buddies sent him there with their money.

Shove all in, he has AK or KQ and has no sniff of how powerful his hand is.



If the guy looks experienced, he has bottom set and you're going home.

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Originally Posted by DRK Star

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

I've had 4 difficult hands this day 1.

Here are 2 that happened in the past hour. I don't think anyone at the table reads this forum, and the day is just 2 hours away from being over, so fuck it.

Hand #1:
BB with Kd7d
150/300/25
50k stack

UTG makes it 700. 2 cold callers. You call 400.

Flop Kc7s6c
You check
UTG bets 1400
Cutoff folds
Button (white guy, 50s with about 70k) makes it 3200
You re-pop to 8k
UTG grimaces and folds after thinking
Button calls

Turn 4d
You bet 12k
Button makes it 25k

You have 29k behind.

??????

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Start talking to the guy......say, "I dont know what to do......Sir, whats the fastest you have ever gotten knocked out of the main event?"

"Uh, this is my first time"

Look him up and down and see if he looks like some fucking rube whose home game buddies sent him there with their money.

Shove all in, he has AK or KQ and has no sniff of how powerful his hand is.



If the guy looks experienced, he has bottom set and you're going home.

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i don't think he had KQ......but AK was a strong possiblility

6,683 players entered the 2014 WSOP main event.
They would have had over 7,000 players but the WTP $500 Re-Buy at Aria really fucked them up.

$10 million guarantee for 1st place, if there were no guarantee it would pay about $8.5 million instead.
That extra $1.5 million should come out of Caesars pocket but it won't.
Caesars plans to fuck the players and take it out of the total prize pool.

So if you cash in the main event, in 300th place, which last year paid $32k, this year it would be $25k instead.

What are the odds that the 2014 WSOP main event winner will another douchebag under 25 years old?


:facepalm2

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

So of the 6 difficult or cooler hands:

AA vs AQ on AQx board: I checked turn, should have bet it.

QT vs KJhh on KhJhx9dAh board: I checked river, still think I made right play, but it's close.

K7 vs ?? on K764 2 club board: I think I was against 66 and made the right fold. Don't regret this one.

AQ vs ?? on 332Q board: I raised flop, bet turn, folded to check raise. I should have flatted flop, checked turn, called river.

Q8 vs AdKh on 8d3d8hTd2s board: I raised flop, called turn, folded to river shove. I should have shipped on turn.

AT vs 55 on AT59 board: I put the guy in to turn check-raise. Don't regret this one, as I didn't have enough chips to fold.

Tough day, amirite?

Imagine all of these tough hands in less than 10 hours (we're talking live, where it moves slowly and you don't get many hands in).

BTW I think my laydowns with the K7 and the AQ probably set up this guy with the AK to bluff me, as I might have looked like a middle-aged-white-guy-folder to him, and today he was actually right about that.

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brutal but i also feel the correct decisions

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

I've had 4 difficult hands this day 1.

Here are 2 that happened in the past hour. I don't think anyone at the table reads this forum, and the day is just 2 hours away from being over, so fuck it.

Hand #1:
BB with Kd7d
150/300/25
50k stack

UTG makes it 700. 2 cold callers. You call 400.

Flop Kc7s6c
You check
UTG bets 1400
Cutoff folds
Button (white guy, 50s with about 70k) makes it 3200
You re-pop to 8k
UTG grimaces and folds after thinking
Button calls

Turn 4d
You bet 12k
Button makes it 25k

You have 29k behind.

??????

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Tough spot I think you have to fold.

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Originally Posted by sonatine

i go broke there on the K7 hand.

imo the button is making a play, or has aces, or a set.

and you have nut outs for all of that with the two kings + ace of diamonds.

so fuck him, shove and pray because if you stack up, thats deep run equity.

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You think he flatted aces otb? The number 1 spot to 3bet where no one believes you? I also dont think a 50's white guy is making a play almost never.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Hand #2

AQ on button
You have 54k
150/300/25
Folds to you.
Raise to 700.
SB folds
BB (aggro young guy) makes it 2200
You consider repopping but call and will make move on certain flops.

Flop 332 rainbow
BB bets just 2k
You make it 5k. To your dismay, he calls.
You decide to check back unless you improve.

Turn Q, rainbow board
BB checks
You consider checking back and calling river
Instead you fire 8k
He thinks for about 2 min and makes it 22k
You have about 40 behind and he has about 28 behind

??????

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Its hard for me to comment on this one because I would have played it so differently. Its such a good spot to 4bet pre. If for some reason I called his 3 bet pre it would be with the intent of calling down because I thought he will spaz. I dont see why you would raise the flop there ever. Sure you fold out his 2 unders equity but you take his barrelling air away which is the point of calling his 3bet pre instead of 4 betting.

As played im never folding.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

So I just busted, and the day was a combination of coolers, action-killing scare-cards, and a weird double-trap situation that robbed me of a big pot.

I also screwed one big hand royally at the end which could have chipped me up to over 75k. Instead I'm busto.

There were 6 tough hands today. I already posted two of them.

Here was the ugliest one though:

Background: After I lost a big pot and was down to under 30k (which is the starting stack), I had AQdd and raised early position pre. Blinds were 150/300/25, and I made it 700. Flatted, then got re-raised to 2100. Me and the flatter called. Flop AcQs3c. I checked, flatter checked, 3-better made it 1300. I check-raised to something like 3500. Flatter folded, 3-bettor went all-in. I called. He showed AK, board ran out J-J and I doubled to 54200, my high. That hand was NOT one of the hard ones, obviously.

Anyway, we are on the final level of the day (200/400/50) and I have about 37k. Same spaz from the hand above makes it 850. I flat with Qs8s on button, SB flats, BB folds.

Flop: 8d3d8h

:yes

Raiser makes it 1400. I make it 4000. He thinks for a bit and calls.

Turn: Td

He now fires out 6800. Much of me wanted to ship it in this guy's face, especially remembering the last retarded AK hand of his. He literally didn't think a second about shoving that AK over me on an AQ3 board.

Instead I just called. My thinking was that I would wait until the river to see if a 4th diamond hit, and then ship it in his face. He isn't putting me on an 8, so I think I'm safe to do that.

River is the ultimate blank: 2s

He ships it in. Turns out we are almost EXACTLY even in chips. He has me covered by 25. Not 25k or 2500, but 25.

If I fold, I still have 25k and change. If I call and I'm shown a flush, I am busto.

Funny enough, if I had like 35k instead of 25k behind, I call. But the thought of being busto and seeing a flush (or maybe even 33/TT/A8/K8) just was making me gun shy, especially after I called the river on Day 3 in 2012 against Amnon Filippi in a similar spot, and he showed me a full house to bust me. Honestly this one was much more begging for a call than the Filippi hand, but for whatever reason I just didn't want to bust with trips-queen-kicker here when I could have 25k behind and still play lots of poker.

So I folded.

He flashed AdKh

:facepalm

I took a long time to think about it, and made the wrong decision. I kept thinking there was a good chance he didn't have it, and just had the Ad with something like AT or AA, but I folded like an idiot. I also didn't bother to calculate the stack I would have had if I won (about 75k), and instead just kept thinking about busting.

So then a few hands later I get ATcc and raise. Older guy (the worst one at the table, honestly) calls from the SB. Flop is AT5 rainbow. He check/calls. I fear 55 a bit but only have 23k (I lost a small pot in between) and can't fold anymore if he does. Turn is 9. I bet 4k, he check-raises to 17k, which is the equivalent of shipping it. He has me covered, but only by a little. Too much of a chance he has A9 or A5 here (or even the other AT), so I just call and pray. He has 55. Blank river, I'm gone. I felt that hand played itself and I just got coolered, but I'm so irritated that I folded that Q8. I should have just called and accepted it was a tough spot if I busted. I would be sitting on 75 now instead of on the rail.

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I wish you wouldnt have posted the results from this hand because I would have looked like a genius. As im reading Im knowing he never has a flush there unless hes good. 99% of all players there would c/r the turn with a flush. Leading is the better option but no one knows that. It screamed Ad.

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Originally Posted by Tyde

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

I've had 4 difficult hands this day 1.

Here are 2 that happened in the past hour. I don't think anyone at the table reads this forum, and the day is just 2 hours away from being over, so fuck it.

Hand #1:
BB with Kd7d
150/300/25
50k stack

UTG makes it 700. 2 cold callers. You call 400.

Flop Kc7s6c
You check
UTG bets 1400
Cutoff folds
Button (white guy, 50s with about 70k) makes it 3200
You re-pop to 8k
UTG grimaces and folds after thinking
Button calls

Turn 4d
You bet 12k
Button makes it 25k

You have 29k behind.

??????

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why not lead out hard hitting top 2 ?

the check is curious to me, especially in a 4 way pot

maybe I'm missing something

i get that you're looking to 'trap' in that spot...but I don't see the logic in checking

based on the action , it looks like the old man has a set of Kings....or an over ambitious AA

genuinely interested why you check there

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If you dont know the answer to this you should never play holdem again. Leading on that board is worse then awful.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

In the hands I posted above:

#1: I folded. I put him on 66, or maybe even a freakish 77. This guy had the total look of a rock. After watching him play awhile, indeed he was. I was new to the table at this point, but this just screamed "flatting with 66 and popping the turn if no club hits". Also, the slightly-over-min raise was indicative of someone who wanted a call. I thought if he had a king with clubs, he's just shipping it and hoping I'm folding 2 pair. I think I made the right move here.

#2: I folded. I agree with SpewArtist that I probably shouldn't have raised the flop, but I was hoping he was going to lay down a non-pair, as I hadn't seemed out of line in any hands at this point, and not being young I thought he would respect my raises. Anyway, I considered he had AQ like me, or maybe even KQ, or maybe even something like TT and he didn't believe I had a Q due to my flop raise. Almost shipped it on him, but what bothered me was that he was 12k shorter than me and pretty much committed himself with that 22k raise. Like ThreeBet, I put him on KK and laid it down.

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Why ship? Just call. You take away his river bluffs by shipping, and hes never folding any queen so either he leads river or check calls with the same hands that would call your ship. Id be more apped to ship if I didnt have the ace because alot of his bluffs will contains aces then you fold out his equity with an ace plus take away his river bluffs if an ace hits if u have kq,qj, but no reason to shove aq just flat. If your worried about a random king hitting or running into a set otr then you probably shouldnt be playing anyways.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Earlier 2 tough hands:

I had 21k coming into the final hand before the break. 50/100 blinds. Early position makes it 250, I find AA in the BB. Folds to me, I make it 800, he calls.

Flop: AcQs3c

:yes

I bet 1100. He calls.

Turn 5d.

I want to bet here, but I'm thinking the flop call means he has either an ace or flush draw, and my a check looks like I'm waving the white flag with TT/JJ/KK. So I check.

:baddecision

He checks.

River Js.

I bet 4k. He thinks for a minute or two and calls. I show AA, he yells, "FUCK!!! FUCK!!"

Then he turns to his friend (who was ready to walk with him during break) and says, "I had AQ. I could've lost way more."

He then tweeted about the hand, so I'm pretty sure he wasn't lying. (He wasn't aware I was reading his Twitter.)

After the break he told me he was going to re-raise me if I bet the turn. Damn.

Would you have bet that turn or tried for a check-raise?

I'm kinda thinking now that betting would be better, as it would induce a raise from AQ/QQ/33, and he would be committed enough by that raise to call my shove at that point. But on the other hand, if he has a flush draw here and bets it, then I can get him committed in that way, and perhaps if he has a naked A.

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Never ever check. You have to much limti holdem in your game your always looking to c/r or raise but nlhe is about value betting and this spot is the absolute nuts to value bet him to death. If you do c/r your hand is face up and he can fold a ton of hands that he would still call a bet with. The only real hand he calls a c/r with is a fl draw so if it hits then u b/f and if it misses u c/c or c/r river.