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it would be absolutely incredible if trump lost because people stacked their cash on him at betting sites instead of donating to his campaign.
Somebody completely cleared the order book on Polymarket. You coulda got 300 to 1 on Kamala winning. Somebody got $825 to win $275k
https://x.com/domahhhh/status/184956...J3cHpwjzIzI2SQ
You have no idea how jealous I am right now.
I would be arbitraging the fuck outta this.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
this really is a once in a life time arb opportunity.
You wouldn’t even need to arb. You could just resell the shares you bought for $100k nowQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I posted this in one of the other 37 election threads by accident.Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOLYou wouldn’t even need to arb. You could just resell the shares you bought for $100k nowQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
In sports betting we are offered a “cash out button” on legal sites. Domer doesn’t appear to cash out larger bets where he necessarily has greater edge (certainty). He holds til resolution. He’ll cash out a small GUT bet.
Domer is a smart and interesting cat.
I thought this reference to Kanneman and Tversky in a Domer interview fascinating. I’ve written about “The Undoing Project” by Michael Lewis over the years here. It was “Thinking Fast and Slow” for dummies. I still try to integrate their ideas in my life. Domer claims he thinks about Kahnemann and Tversky every day
Quote:
Q:I see you listed a Kahneman book on your recommended books list - heuristics, psychology of risk/loss aversion and dual-system thinking all play a large part in betting. What do you think DK would’ve thought about Polymarket? Do any of his teachings seem to constantly find their way to the forefront of your mind?
Domer: "I think about the biases that Kahneman and Tversky wrote about on a daily basis, and I am not exaggerating. Their discoveries were simplistic - and in some ways a bit obvious - but they are also deeply profound. Just some of the things that I think about – Price anchoring. Endowment effect. Loss-aversion. Availability bias. There are a lot more. If you want to be a top level trader or bettor at anything, you should have more than a passing understanding of the biases that are trying to control your brain.
Daniel Kahnemann would love Polymarket. He was an advocate for prediction markets.
Highly recommend the Undoing Project. It is what can be called a gamblers bible. I promise it is a fun read - especially for a guy like you, Plop. The truth is it’s a love story
i've never heard of this. so you truly recommend i add it to my list? eager to know. if so, would you recommend i read it or would audio book be an adequate substitute>Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarI posted this in one of the other 37 election threads by accident.Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
In sports betting we are offered a “cash out button” on legal sites. Domer doesn’t appear to cash out larger bets where he necessarily has greater edge (certainty). He holds til resolution. He’ll cash out a small GUT bet.
Domer is a smart and interesting cat.
I thought this reference to Kanneman and Tversky in a Domer interview fascinating. I’ve written about “The Undoing Project” by Michael Lewis over the years here. It was “Thinking Fast and Slow” for dummies. I still try to integrate their ideas in my life. Domer claims he thinks about Kahnemann and Tversky every day
Quote:
Q:I see you listed a Kahneman book on your recommended books list - heuristics, psychology of risk/loss aversion and dual-system thinking all play a large part in betting. What do you think DK would’ve thought about Polymarket? Do any of his teachings seem to constantly find their way to the forefront of your mind?
Domer: "I think about the biases that Kahneman and Tversky wrote about on a daily basis, and I am not exaggerating. Their discoveries were simplistic - and in some ways a bit obvious - but they are also deeply profound. Just some of the things that I think about – Price anchoring. Endowment effect. Loss-aversion. Availability bias. There are a lot more. If you want to be a top level trader or bettor at anything, you should have more than a passing understanding of the biases that are trying to control your brain.
Daniel Kahnemann would love Polymarket. He was an advocate for prediction markets.
Highly recommend the Undoing Project. It is what can be called a gamblers bible. I promise it is a fun read - especially for a guy like you, Plop. The truth is it’s a love story
From a gambling perspective - choose whatever will increase your likelihood of being exposed to these guysQuote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
It is indeed a great story independent of their ideas. I marked my book up and referred back to certain parts over the years.
These two Jews were a big deal in the Yom Kippur and 6 day war in the Middle East in ‘69. Kahnemann rewrote the way Israel assigned men to their duty in the military. It’s a screening process Israel uses to this day.
He changed the way fighter pilots were trained. He may never have been in an airplane before.
It goes on and on.
I just remembered that part in light of the Israeli shenanigans these days.
They joined up when war broke out like every other Israeli. They were not career military. Two young nerds. Couldn’t help but observe and apply their casual brilliance.
I forgot something important and potentially off putting
Chapter 1 involves the NBA. If you are dismissive of the NBA as I am that can really kill your enthusiasm/
It is ok to just start with chapter 2.
Apologies for not including this warning earlier. I mean well
@Plop
I caught and won Democrat Nominee - Any Other Candidate +700. I posted preflop here
I mention this because I’m desperate for your approval and attention obviously. All I have is Druff. But my single term win has confirmed what I knew all along about my political instincts
Have you contemplated a prop for Trump to not finish his term? For Vance to ascend to the throne? You have the gastro issue (shitting his pants - not that there is anything wrong with that). The refusal to divulge medical and his issue with his former gastro doctor
He’s also old. (Both Druff and Trump)
I can’t shake this but I am about instant gratification too. Thoughts?
I love how Domer was right about the guy being French.
All this talk about how it had to be Elon, even after Domer's thread, and it turned out that, yes... it was a Frenchman.
I knew that French idiom meant something. Keep in mind it wasn't a French idiom used while speaking French. It was one which came up while translating the awkward English back to French. So for it not to have been a French speaker, the person would have had to purposely insert that idiom in French, then translate it to English, just to potentially confuse someone translating it back and researching it that way. That was unlikely. This is different than Colonel Nigel Fabersham saying "Tally ho, pip pip, let's get on with the bloody thing."
Language gives a lot away. I've helped naive friends spot online scammers before from single words used in chat, such as a supposedly hot American 20s chick calling a guy "dear". I told the guy, "No hot chick in her 20s is using the word 'dear' when chatting with a new guy she likes." Indeed, it was a Nigerian scammer.
https://fortune.com/crypto/2024/10/3...g-researchers/
yeah this is the sort of stuff we were keying in on during the elon fingerpointing.
I read (and loved) Thinking, Fast and Slow based on a Domer rec. I just ordered The Undoing Project based on your rec, and should get it tomorrow.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarI posted this in one of the other 37 election threads by accident.Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
In sports betting we are offered a “cash out button” on legal sites. Domer doesn’t appear to cash out larger bets where he necessarily has greater edge (certainty). He holds til resolution. He’ll cash out a small GUT bet.
Domer is a smart and interesting cat.
I thought this reference to Kanneman and Tversky in a Domer interview fascinating. I’ve written about “The Undoing Project” by Michael Lewis over the years here. It was “Thinking Fast and Slow” for dummies. I still try to integrate their ideas in my life. Domer claims he thinks about Kahnemann and Tversky every day
Highly recommend the Undoing Project. It is what can be called a gamblers bible. I promise it is a fun read - especially for a guy like you, Plop. The truth is it’s a love storyQuote:
Q:I see you listed a Kahneman book on your recommended books list - heuristics, psychology of risk/loss aversion and dual-system thinking all play a large part in betting. What do you think DK would’ve thought about Polymarket? Do any of his teachings seem to constantly find their way to the forefront of your mind?
Domer: "I think about the biases that Kahneman and Tversky wrote about on a daily basis, and I am not exaggerating. Their discoveries were simplistic - and in some ways a bit obvious - but they are also deeply profound. Just some of the things that I think about – Price anchoring. Endowment effect. Loss-aversion. Availability bias. There are a lot more. If you want to be a top level trader or bettor at anything, you should have more than a passing understanding of the biases that are trying to control your brain.
Daniel Kahnemann would love Polymarket. He was an advocate for prediction markets.
I am very very proud of you. I haven't looked at Trump to not finish his term. In my experiences these types of props tend to get over valued. I have a bias towards betting on things to not happen. It's less sexy to bet on those.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
The preponderance of my bets right now are Kamala to win popular vote (went as low as 57c now at 62c), and Cruz to win his senate seat (75c on Kalshi) as a hedge of sorts
someones closing out their trump longs
For those like me without specific knowledge we call this at least a retracement.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
I don’t speak French but how does early voting affect things vis a vis the 2016 surprise.
Can you flag Plop over here from the adult site for us?
San, it's really difficult to parse bettable info out from early voting data. It's sort of like being a winning sports better or doing technical analysis on a memecoin. A lot of people think they can do it, but few actually can.
DERNIÉRES NOUVELLES!
https://x.com/Domahhhh/status/1852422106102776290
Honestly so much happier knowing this guy is just a huge degen. Respect.
Kamala back up to 68% to win the popular vote. Had been down to 58c. Theo already all in, and out of money? Or reloading?
“… which he described as the majority of his available liquid assets”Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
may be a new listing on Homes.fr soon