Official Presidential Polling and Odds thread

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Originally Posted by splitthis

There are some older democrats in Ohio that don’t have cable or the internet and still read the daily paper believing all the lib lies.

You can’t possibly explain what is really going on to them, they came from a different age.

That being said I was driving down a rural road today 55 speed limit and passed a billboard that said Kamala has been on more wieners than Heinz ketchup. Was going to fast to get the pic of it.

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Laughing at the woman convinced Mike Dewine was part of some George Soros conspiracy explaining anything to anyone who can actually read.

The last thing those geriatric people need is you babbling your cult group Facebook nonsense to them. Good lord go off and die alone in the woods.

That said, Ohio is like Mississippi level safe for Trump. Much more static population. It would be closer in election with traditional GOP candidate, but Trump will win Ohio easily.

I think Florida is safe also, but it would flip quicker than Ohio. Much more rapidly changing demographics compared to Ohio. But if he loses Florida, he’d have already lost anyway.

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Originally Posted by BCR

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Originally Posted by splitthis

There are some older democrats in Ohio that don’t have cable or the internet and still read the daily paper believing all the lib lies.

You can’t possibly explain what is really going on to them, they came from a different age.

That being said I was driving down a rural road today 55 speed limit and passed a billboard that said Kamala has been on more wieners than Heinz ketchup. Was going to fast to get the pic of it.

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Laughing at the woman convinced Mike Dewine was part of some George Soros conspiracy explaining anything to anyone who can actually read.

The last thing those geriatric people need is you babbling your cult group Facebook nonsense to them. Good lord go off and die alone in the woods.

That said, Ohio is like Mississippi level safe for Trump. Much more static population. It would be closer in election with traditional GOP candidate, but Trump will win Ohio easily.

I think Florida is safe also, but it would flip quicker than Ohio. Much more rapidly changing demographics compared to Ohio. But if he loses Florida, he’d have already lost anyway.

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'I think Florida is safe also' comment. What planet are you inhabiting? Florida is basically deep red now, The panhandle borders Alabama and it is exploding in population. There is a zero % chance Florida is in play, its effectively South Carolina now. LOL, some babbling idiot on Twitter makes a post about Miami and people glom on to it. Miami is saturated, has been for years, the growth is in the panhandle of the state, which is why FL is nowhere near in play.

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Originally Posted by tgull

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Originally Posted by BCR

Laughing at the woman convinced Mike Dewine was part of some George Soros conspiracy explaining anything to anyone who can actually read.

The last thing those geriatric people need is you babbling your cult group Facebook nonsense to them. Good lord go off and die alone in the woods.

That said, Ohio is like Mississippi level safe for Trump. Much more static population. It would be closer in election with traditional GOP candidate, but Trump will win Ohio easily.

I think Florida is safe also, but it would flip quicker than Ohio. Much more rapidly changing demographics compared to Ohio. But if he loses Florida, he’d have already lost anyway.

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'I think Florida is safe also' comment. What planet are you inhabiting? Florida is basically deep red now, The panhandle borders Alabama and it is exploding in population. There is a zero % chance Florida is in play, its effectively South Carolina now. LOL, some babbling idiot on Twitter makes a post about Miami and people glom on to it. Miami is saturated, has been for years, the growth is in the panhandle of the state, which is why FL is nowhere near in play.

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You seem quite emotional about this. I just pointed out Ohio is much safer than Florida. Trump won Ohio by 8.1 and 7.3 in 2016 and 2020. He won Florida bu 1.3 and 3 in last 2 elections. Both are likely safe, but in some election where he blows it, Florida is much easier lost than Ohio.

Florida is the 3rd most populated State in the U.S., its massively populated

Most live from West Palm Beach to Miami in South Florida, like myself and that is deep Red. The panhandle all the way up by Alabama/Mississippi gets more Red/Blue but still isn't Blue, Tampa to Orlando is where you'll see some Democratic voting in Florida and doubtfully but could flip from a Red to Blue region on voting day (Doubtfully..)

look like a swing state to me.

https://x.com/FLPolEnjoyer/status/1817022636754423843

https://x.com/Politics_PR/status/1818359666188919249

https://x.com/Victorshi2020/status/1822289538661667134

https://x.com/PoliticalSpinz/status/1822960313806766418

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Originally Posted by sonatine

look like a swing state to me.

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LOL, I know you are gas lighting. You can get 90-10 on most books betting D on Florida. Go do it, I know you won't because you like money like I do. I'd bet New Hampshire R before I would even consider FL D. The panhandle is exploding in population growth, which is basically East Alabama, no chance.

You've changed. You used to be all about the money, not anymore, politics has corroded you.

So long old friend.

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Originally Posted by tgull

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Originally Posted by sonatine

look like a swing state to me.

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LOL, I know you are gas lighting. You can get 90-10 on most books betting D on Florida. Go do it, I know you won't because you like money like I do. I'd bet New Hampshire R before I would even consider FL D. The panhandle is exploding in population growth, which is basically East Alabama, no chance.

You've changed. You used to be all about the money, not anymore, politics has corroded you.

So long old friend.

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tyde would have never given up on me.

Saw this finance-tainment today.

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Bitcoin Price Slump Tied to Rise of Kamala Harris Over Trump, Says Bernstein

Bitcoin's latest dip may be related to traders expecting Kamala Harris to win the U.S. election over Donald Trump, Bernstein analysts said

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Lotta talk about Pelosi, Obama et al pressuring Biden to drop out.

It would appear to me that Biden quit simply because the fund raising from the billionaires dried up. It was a stark and practical decision. Following the debate with Trump his campaign bank account was cancelled

Now Kamala was universally regarded as inept as reflected in VP approval polling for years. Subject of ridicule.

The Kamala campaign money floods in from the elite billionaires (whatever their expected reward). Kamala is now the overnight wunderkind. Press is sanguine and loving. Nary a harsh word.

something something about the public having zero.zero input regarding the democratic candidate but Democratic Party is a private institution etc

muh democracy

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

Lotta talk about Pelosi, Obama et al pressuring Biden to drop out.

It would appear to me that Biden quit simply because the fund raising from the billionaires dried up. It was a stark and practical decision. Following the debate with Trump his campaign bank account was cancelled

Now Kamala was universally regarded as inept as reflected in VP approval polling for years. Subject of ridicule.

The Kamala campaign money floods in from the elite billionaires (whatever their expected reward). Kamala is now the overnight wunderkind. Press is sanguine and loving. Nary a harsh word.

something something about the public having zero.zero input regarding the democratic candidate but Democratic Party is a private institution etc

muh democracy

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He who has the most gold makes the rules.

Kamala hit a one outer on the river to make a royal flush over quads...bad beat jackpot.

Trump can dodge bullets, but not billionaires.

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Originally Posted by simpdog

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

Lotta talk about Pelosi, Obama et al pressuring Biden to drop out.

It would appear to me that Biden quit simply because the fund raising from the billionaires dried up. It was a stark and practical decision. Following the debate with Trump his campaign bank account was cancelled

Now Kamala was universally regarded as inept as reflected in VP approval polling for years. Subject of ridicule.

The Kamala campaign money floods in from the elite billionaires (whatever their expected reward). Kamala is now the overnight wunderkind. Press is sanguine and loving. Nary a harsh word.

something something about the public having zero.zero input regarding the democratic candidate but Democratic Party is a private institution etc

muh democracy

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He who has the most gold makes the rules.

Kamala hit a one outer on the river to make a royal flush over quads...bad beat jackpot.

Trump can dodge bullets, but not billionaires.

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We have all heard it said but it’s so plainly obvious here. Despite my cynicism I am now pretty damn impressed and frankly amazed.

I could mouth words before but now I believe.

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

Lotta talk about Pelosi, Obama et al pressuring Biden to drop out.

It would appear to me that Biden quit simply because the fund raising from the billionaires dried up. It was a stark and practical decision. Following the debate with Trump his campaign bank account was cancelled

Now Kamala was universally regarded as inept as reflected in VP approval polling for years. Subject of ridicule.

The Kamala campaign money floods in from the elite billionaires (whatever their expected reward). Kamala is now the overnight wunderkind. Press is sanguine and loving. Nary a harsh word.

something something about the public having zero.zero input regarding the democratic candidate but Democratic Party is a private institution etc

muh democracy

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Trump was outspent 10:1 by Clinton in 2016. I don't think big money means as much as it used to. I am taking a super objective view, I believe Harris is peaking too soon. She is an awful candidate, she was shown the door in 2019 by the electorate, and she was ignored by Biden for 3+ years. And her VP pick will turn out to be an albatross. I am waiting for the Dem convention, hoping Trump slides to 40% and then I will make a 5 figure bet. This is going to be easy money. I made a ton in the market (for me) since October, so a $50,000 bet is on my radar.

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Originally Posted by tgull

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

Lotta talk about Pelosi, Obama et al pressuring Biden to drop out.

It would appear to me that Biden quit simply because the fund raising from the billionaires dried up. It was a stark and practical decision. Following the debate with Trump his campaign bank account was cancelled

Now Kamala was universally regarded as inept as reflected in VP approval polling for years. Subject of ridicule.

The Kamala campaign money floods in from the elite billionaires (whatever their expected reward). Kamala is now the overnight wunderkind. Press is sanguine and loving. Nary a harsh word.

something something about the public having zero.zero input regarding the democratic candidate but Democratic Party is a private institution etc

muh democracy

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Trump was outspent 10:1 by Clinton in 2016. I don't think big money means as much as it used to. I am taking a super objective view, I believe Harris is peaking too soon. She is an awful candidate, she was shown the door in 2019 by the electorate, and she was ignored by Biden for 3+ years. And her VP pick will turn out to be an albatross. I am waiting for the Dem convention, hoping Trump slides to 40% and then I will make a 5 figure bet. This is going to be easy money. I made a ton in the market (for me) since October, so a $50,000 bet is on my radar.

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Paging (Sloppy Joe)

:lol2

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Originally Posted by garrett

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Originally Posted by tgull

Trump was outspent 10:1 by Clinton in 2016. I don't think big money means as much as it used to. I am taking a super objective view, I believe Harris is peaking too soon. She is an awful candidate, she was shown the door in 2019 by the electorate, and she was ignored by Biden for 3+ years. And her VP pick will turn out to be an albatross. I am waiting for the Dem convention, hoping Trump slides to 40% and then I will make a 5 figure bet. This is going to be easy money. I made a ton in the market (for me) since October, so a $50,000 bet is on my radar.

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Paging (Sloppy Joe)

:lol2

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His fantasy money aligns with my current real wager on Trump back when he was the underdog.

I only have the equivalent of a few men's Coach briefcases on Trump, would hedge if it were anything other than a sweat.

Do wish my brother well despite our recent row.

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

Lotta talk about Pelosi, Obama et al pressuring Biden to drop out.

It would appear to me that Biden quit simply because the fund raising from the billionaires dried up. It was a stark and practical decision. Following the debate with Trump his campaign bank account was cancelled

Now Kamala was universally regarded as inept as reflected in VP approval polling for years. Subject of ridicule.

The Kamala campaign money floods in from the elite billionaires (whatever their expected reward). Kamala is now the overnight wunderkind. Press is sanguine and loving. Nary a harsh word.

something something about the public having zero.zero input regarding the democratic candidate but Democratic Party is a private institution etc

muh democracy

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its kinda odd that the left offers perfectly honest and straight forward accounts for embracing kamala but people on the right still need to cloak it in subterfuge and conspiracy.

an interesting narrative rising from the ashes of our democracy is that maybe, just maybe, 3 months is enough for a campaign.

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Originally Posted by sonatine

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

Lotta talk about Pelosi, Obama et al pressuring Biden to drop out.

It would appear to me that Biden quit simply because the fund raising from the billionaires dried up. It was a stark and practical decision. Following the debate with Trump his campaign bank account was cancelled

Now Kamala was universally regarded as inept as reflected in VP approval polling for years. Subject of ridicule.

The Kamala campaign money floods in from the elite billionaires (whatever their expected reward). Kamala is now the overnight wunderkind. Press is sanguine and loving. Nary a harsh word.

something something about the public having zero.zero input regarding the democratic candidate but Democratic Party is a private institution etc

muh democracy

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its kinda odd that the left offers perfectly honest and straight forward accounts for embracing kamala but people on the right still need to cloak it in subterfuge and conspiracy.

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We have no real idea what her policies and positions might be. Not sure how you embrace a blank page. Example, word is she is more hawkish about the border - her previous statements as VP are offered as evidence of flip flop. Who knows

By the same token Trump was yammering some nonsense that anyone who completes a degree from a U.S. college would get a diploma and citizenship thus reducing colleges and junior colleges to diploma mills.

Time for a debate

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Originally Posted by sonatine

an interesting narrative rising from the ashes of our democracy is that maybe, just maybe, 3 months is enough for a campaign.

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Trump has no rallies scheduled for weeks and weeks.

Is he okay? It’s getting interesting.

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

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Originally Posted by sonatine

an interesting narrative rising from the ashes of our democracy is that maybe, just maybe, 3 months is enough for a campaign.

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Trump has no rallies scheduled for weeks and weeks.

Is he okay? It’s getting interesting.

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Because his internal polling shows they are winning pretty easily. Again, no one here will see the obvious. Why waste money before their convention?