*** OFFICIAL 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Race Thread ***

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Originally Posted by duped_samaritan

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Originally Posted by abrown83

What happens when the employer pockets the 15,000 and then you have to pay the $13,000 out of pocket?

At least Warren’s plan makes sense to add an employer payroll tax. That prevents people from getting robbed which will happen under Bern’s plan.

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Not sure. It would be the same thing as giving all of your employees a $15k pay cut though, that can't be a smart move for most businesses. Although it would probably be pretty common for companies to skim a little from everyone if there isn't anything preventing them from doing that. I wouldn't be surprised if there's some regulation making this illegal since it would make people bitch about the new healthcare even more, which would make whoever wrote the bill look bad.

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Employee pay would not go up much (or at all) if single payer healthcare becomes reality.

Why would it?

People, in general, like the status quo and are satisfied with it. As long as their pay doesn't go DOWN, they won't complain much (aside from a small percentage who realize how screwed they're getting in this situation.)

I'll give you an example: Auto insurance.

If you sign up for auto insurance with a new or newish car, you will get a competitive rate.

Then 5 years pass and your driving record stays clean. Your car is now worth significantly less, thus insuring it should be cheaper. Do your insurance rates go down?

Of course not. They either stay the same or go up.

Why? Because insurance companies know that if you were okay paying last year's rate, you'll be fine paying the same rate this year.

I used to switch auto insurance companies back and forth every 2 years or so in order to get better rates.

Biden is probably going to lose Iowa and NH.

I'm going to wait for him to lose both, then fire more on him. Odds should get much better for a Biden bet after that, provided nothing happens in between.

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Originally Posted by duped_samaritan

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Originally Posted by nightmarefish

Correct, and if they take our medical care away and force us to pay for medicare for all we will net be paying more and she will lose that part of her compensation package. It's not like if they take the benefit away employers will make up for that lost benefit with a bump in pay.

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No, the Hospital would still compensate your wife the same. They would just put the ~$15k into her paycheck instead of her insurance.

So you'd have the ~$15k + whatever out of pocket expenses you pay in the bank. Lets call it $19k.

If your taxes only went up, say, $13k, that would be good for you.

I'm just making the numbers up here, and not saying single payer will actually be good for you, I have no idea if it will or not. Just explaining how "I only pay $150 a month and $50 to see the doctor" is quite irrelevant.

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Not a chance her employer rolls that benefit into extra wages to off set the lost benefit. If you truly believe this you’re sadly mistaken.

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Originally Posted by sonatine

i basically saw a lot of very emotional rebuttals that somehow missed the point of 90% of what i said, which i got used to with the bernie bros cult and am not going to get sucked into again, but modi's become a fucking nightmare since obama left office because he's openly quoted trump as his cart blanche for ethnic cleansing against muslims, shelling pakistan, and treating kashmir like some sort of open air prison.

the fact that things like this arent on your radar is unfortunate.

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Emotional?

Every one of your points was rebutted, with links, videos, and evidence. You have addressed 0 of the rebuttals, but have only come to claim that all were "emotional" (and thus, apparently, warrant no reply).

This is the same tactic that the establishment takes against Tulsi. They cannot rebut her points, so they work to color her, the source, as unreliable/devious ("a Russian asset," "Jill Stein," "Republican plant"). This is all in lieu of addressing any one of her points, because once they do that, they lose. Same with you, although I don't understand what you have to gain from this dishonest style of discourse.

I am aware that Modi has problems. This doesn't discount my support of Tulsi, who has worked to maintain a positive relationship with India and its government, including (again), Modi's opposition.

Druff, could we bet on Biden? I'll take everyone over him and obv give you good odds. Let me know what you'd like.

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Originally Posted by diggydow

Druff, could we bet on Biden? I'll take everyone over him and obv give you good odds. Let me know what you'd like.

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You mean for the primary?

Yes. What odds will you give?

Is sonatine going through menopause?

Sure, for the primary.

I see here that Biden is at 23% to win the primary: https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ial-nomination

We can take that at 20% (in your favor) and make it your $50 to my $200. If Biden wins the nomination, you get $200, and if he loses I get $50.

Want to place a similar bet, but against Tulsi? I'm obv homerish so will accept not-great odds.

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Originally Posted by diggydow

Sure, for the primary.

I see here that Biden is at 23% to win the primary: https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ial-nomination

We can take that at 20% (in your favor) and make it your $50 to my $200. If Biden wins the nomination, you get $200, and if he loses I get $50.

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I hate to tell you, but those odds aren't very exciting. That's exactly what Betonline is offering right now (+400).

How are you planning to do this? Are you going to ship me $200 in advance?

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

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Originally Posted by diggydow

Sure, for the primary.

I see here that Biden is at 23% to win the primary: https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ial-nomination

We can take that at 20% (in your favor) and make it your $50 to my $200. If Biden wins the nomination, you get $200, and if he loses I get $50.

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I hate to tell you, but those odds aren't very exciting. That's exactly what Betonline is offering right now (+400).

How are you planning to do this? Are you going to ship me $200 in advance?

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Sure, whatever is conventional. Venmo or PayPal.

But I want to pair it with a pro-Tulsi bet.

Diggy, I am willing to cover your bet if you lose if you ship me nudes. Just putting that out there

'wine aunt' is amazing but tulsi is still fundamentally unelectable.

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Originally Posted by sonatine

'wine aunt' is amazing but tulsi is still fundamentally unelectable.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

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Originally Posted by duped_samaritan

Not sure. It would be the same thing as giving all of your employees a $15k pay cut though, that can't be a smart move for most businesses. Although it would probably be pretty common for companies to skim a little from everyone if there isn't anything preventing them from doing that. I wouldn't be surprised if there's some regulation making this illegal since it would make people bitch about the new healthcare even more, which would make whoever wrote the bill look bad.

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Employee pay would not go up much (or at all) if single payer healthcare becomes reality.

Why would it?

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Because the amount your employer pays for your health insurance is part of your compensation package. Just because you don't see it on your pay check doesn't mean you're not receiving it. If they're paying you 100k a year and 15k for your health insurance then your value to them is 115k a year. If they decide to devalue you by 15k then you will feel it and so will everyone else and their employees will either be less productive or quit and then they can decided if they want to replace you with an employee worth 100k or 115k.

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Originally Posted by duped_samaritan

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Employee pay would not go up much (or at all) if single payer healthcare becomes reality.

Why would it?

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Because the amount your employer pays for your health insurance is part of your compensation package. Just because you don't see it on your pay check doesn't mean you're not receiving it. If they're paying you 100k a year and 15k for your health insurance then your value to them is 115k a year. If they decide to devalue you by 15k then you will feel it and so will everyone else and their employees will either be less productive or quit and then they can decided if they want to replace you with an employee worth 100k or 115k.

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That's how you'd like it to work, but that's unlikely how it will actually work in corporate America.

If they save $15k per year, they will probably kick in raises of $3k per year and everyone will kiss their feet thanking them for their generosity.

You underestimate how sheep-like human nature really is. As long as what appears to be the status quo (or a bit better) is maintained, everyone is satisfied. People only get uncomfortable when something they are used to is taken away.

This factor is also what is keeping socialized medicine at bay in this country, to some degree, much to the chagrin of the far left. When politicians say, "We are going to get rid of your private insurance and replace it with a Medicare For All", people mainly hear, "We are getting rid of your insurance", and they freak out.

Ask the average American why they don't want their private insurance taken away, and they won't be able to coherently explain it. They just don't want it to happen, because they're comfortable with the status quo, and a departure from that sounds scary.

The funny thing is that these ignoramuses are actually raising a correct objection, even if they don't understand the reasons they're objecting. A US version of socialized medicine will results in much higher overall healthcare costs, long waits to see specialists, denials of necessary tests, and little benefit to the employees who were previously on employer-paid plans.

This has been exasperating Elizabeth Warren. She knows that everyone hates the health insurance companies and many are dissatisfied with the state of healthcare, but when she talks about her socialized system replacing private insurance, everyone flips out. And she's afraid to broach the increased tax subject, because everyone will flip out even more.

Ideologically, the country just isn't ready for it yet. They don't quite understand why, but they're not ready.

Sadly, it will eventually come soon enough, and it will be a disaster of epic proportions.

Guy who step blew, Gabbard is 100/1 at sportsbook.ag

I also endorse Booker 100/1 and Klobuchar 60/1

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Biden is probably going to lose Iowa and NH.

I'm going to wait for him to lose both, then fire more on him. Odds should get much better for a Biden bet after that, provided nothing happens in between.

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Biden’s only hope is to crush in South Carolina based on his appeal to Obama-loving Dems there (who haven’t warned to an old white Jew or a arm-waving upper middle class white woman) in order to regain some momentum going into other red primary states. If he doesn’t come in first there, and by a considerable margin, it will only be a matter of time before he fades given his now-mediocre-at-best retail campaigning ability.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Biden is probably going to lose Iowa and NH.

I'm going to wait for him to lose both, then fire more on him. Odds should get much better for a Biden bet after that, provided nothing happens in between.

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The states that really matter in this election for Democrats are Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

If the Democratic nominee doesn't win in those states it's game over. Trump wins re-election.

Biden is the only Democratic candidate that is polling ahead in those states.

Biden is also the only Democratic candidate that black people will vote for.

https://media.vanityfair.com/photos/...-2020-race.jpg

https://crimsonpledge.com/cms/res/5c...0.44836266.png

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Originally Posted by MumblesBadly

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Biden is probably going to lose Iowa and NH.

I'm going to wait for him to lose both, then fire more on him. Odds should get much better for a Biden bet after that, provided nothing happens in between.

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Biden’s only hope is to crush in South Carolina based on his appeal to Obama-loving Dems there (who haven’t warned to an old white Jew or a arm-waving upper middle class white woman) in order to regain some momentum going into other red primary states. If he doesn’t come in first there, and by a considerable margin, it will only be a matter of time before he fades given his now-mediocre-at-best retail campaigning ability.

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Of course he will crush in SC. That's a given. Any state with a large percentage black population will automatically go to him in the primary, just as they did to Hillary in 2016.

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Originally Posted by diggydow

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Originally Posted by sonatine

i basically saw a lot of very emotional rebuttals that somehow missed the point of 90% of what i said, which i got used to with the bernie bros cult and am not going to get sucked into again, but modi's become a fucking nightmare since obama left office because he's openly quoted trump as his cart blanche for ethnic cleansing against muslims, shelling pakistan, and treating kashmir like some sort of open air prison.

the fact that things like this arent on your radar is unfortunate.

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Emotional?

Every one of your points was rebutted, with links, videos, and evidence. You have addressed 0 of the rebuttals, but have only come to claim that all were "emotional" (and thus, apparently, warrant no reply).

This is the same tactic that the establishment takes against Tulsi. They cannot rebut her points, so they work to color her, the source, as unreliable/devious ("a Russian asset," "Jill Stein," "Republican plant"). This is all in lieu of addressing any one of her points, because once they do that, they lose. Same with you, although I don't understand what you have to gain from this dishonest style of discourse.

I am aware that Modi has problems. This doesn't discount my support of Tulsi, who has worked to maintain a positive relationship with India and its government, including (again), Modi's opposition.

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Tulsi just released a video repeating exactly what I just pointed out that Sonatine constantly does: https://www.instagram.com/p/B4hcHxZBz5D/

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Originally Posted by diggydow

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Originally Posted by diggydow

Emotional?

Every one of your points was rebutted, with links, videos, and evidence. You have addressed 0 of the rebuttals, but have only come to claim that all were "emotional" (and thus, apparently, warrant no reply).

This is the same tactic that the establishment takes against Tulsi. They cannot rebut her points, so they work to color her, the source, as unreliable/devious ("a Russian asset," "Jill Stein," "Republican plant"). This is all in lieu of addressing any one of her points, because once they do that, they lose. Same with you, although I don't understand what you have to gain from this dishonest style of discourse.

I am aware that Modi has problems. This doesn't discount my support of Tulsi, who has worked to maintain a positive relationship with India and its government, including (again), Modi's opposition.

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Tulsi just released a video repeating exactly what I just pointed out that Sonatine constantly does: https://www.instagram.com/p/B4hcHxZBz5D/

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Tulsi just posted her workout routine.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...arm-lifts.html


Maybe you could do the same Diggy? Shirt optional.

Watch this TYT clip to see a billionaire cry on CNBC over the prospect of having to support Donald Trump next year to avoid Elizabeth Warren (or Bernie Sanders) get elected president and rallying sufficient public support to enact a wealth tax targeted towards the very rich. Seriously. It’s priceless.

https://youtu.be/OhvVg9oeG5U

Tellafriend: you are a gift to this site

Devidee is kind of terrible tbh, he just regurgitates /pol. I wish he would leave, pos is gonna fuck up my background check for an oval office selfie in trump's 2nd term

https://dailystormer.name/wp-content...sian-agent.jpg

tulsi is literally the boxxy of politics.

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Originally Posted by sonatine

tulsi is literally the boxxy of politics.

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OOOOoooo snap. Diggy, you gon let tine dog your girl like that?

Shit.

Tulsi just qualified for the November debate today, so it'll be a 10 person debate (9 democrats and 1 republican).

Qualifying for the December debate will be a challenge for a lot of candidates. Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, and Harris are the only real locks. You need 4% is 4 qualifying polls, or 6% in two early state polls. Steyer will probably be able to buy his way in. Yang might be able to sneak in, but don't think he's a favorite. Klobuchar is unlikely, but possible if she has a good November debate. Booker and Gabbard are very unlikely to make it. Castro will probably drop out within the next few weeks.

If Warren keeps looking like she's at the top, at what point do the other candidates bring up the Pocahontas stuff? I can't see Biden or Sanders bringing it up. Maybe through their surrogates. Gabbard could do it. Klobuchar might if she decides to just YOLO the rest of her campaign

Embedded Tweet

pretty sure team retard is holding back on the pocahontas smears until she gets the nod. its their strongest card to play against pretty much any candidate by miles.

i want gabbard to just go nuts on warren about pocahontas just to make tine lose it

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Originally Posted by blake

i want gabbard to just go nuts on warren about pocahontas just to make tine lose it

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it would honestly be great for america if she did.

(sleepy) Jeff Sessions is running for Alabama senate. I will not sleep until I see what Trump has to say about it on twitter. Is he gonna go all in to try to stop Jeff in the primaries (a state where Trump was embarrassed in a recent senate race)?

edit: meant to post in Trump train thread. whatever

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Originally Posted by SPIT this

(sleepy) Jeff Sessions is running for Alabama senate. I will not sleep until I see what Trump has to say about it on twitter. Is he gonna go all in to try to stop Jeff in the primaries (a state where Trump was embarrassed in a recent senate race)?

edit: meant to post in Trump train thread. whatever

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I think you are wrong about this. Trump will support Sessions.

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Originally Posted by Tellafriend

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Originally Posted by SPIT this

(sleepy) Jeff Sessions is running for Alabama senate. I will not sleep until I see what Trump has to say about it on twitter. Is he gonna go all in to try to stop Jeff in the primaries (a state where Trump was embarrassed in a recent senate race)?

edit: meant to post in Trump train thread. whatever

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I think you are wrong about this. Trump will support Sessions.

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"You look at what’s happening over at the Justice Department, now we have a great attorney general. Whereas before that, with Jeff Sessions, it was a disaster. Just a total disaster. He was an embarrassment to the great state of Alabama,” Trump told former adviser Sebastian Gorka in an interview published in the Daily Caller.

“And I put him there because he endorsed me, and he wanted it so badly. And I wish he’d never endorsed me.”

this was two weeks ago

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Originally Posted by Tellafriend

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Originally Posted by SPIT this

(sleepy) Jeff Sessions is running for Alabama senate. I will not sleep until I see what Trump has to say about it on twitter. Is he gonna go all in to try to stop Jeff in the primaries (a state where Trump was embarrassed in a recent senate race)?

edit: meant to post in Trump train thread. whatever

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I think you are wrong about this. Trump will support Sessions.

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Trump will support Sessions /in the general/. But support Sessions in the Republican primary? No chance. He'll either push one of his opponents or stay quiet (and Trump loves staying quiet).

"This guy is mentally retarded."

-Donald J. Trump, referring to Jeff Sessions

https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/04/polit...ons/index.html

I hear ya. Guess we shall see.

Tulsi was on The View today and owned everyone (starts at 33:22):

https://youtu.be/lKzLvi_B-H8