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Thanks. Want to belong.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I can't really fully justify my behavior. I will offer this, in the preseason managers are pretty candid about their game plans - i.e. who's gonna get work.
In some instances managers are almost forfeiting the game beforehand to give some kid some work. This really never happens in any other sporting situation.
So I am on it.
The thing I hate about trying to predict spring games is that you don't know what performance you're going to get from the players, even if you have an idea of who's playing.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarThanks. Want to belong.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I can't really fully justify my behavior. I will offer this, in the preseason managers are pretty candid about their game plans - i.e. who's gonna get work.
In some instances managers are almost forfeiting the game beforehand to give some kid some work. This really never happens in any other sporting situation.
So I am on it.
For example, Kershaw sucked for 3 years in a row in spring training. (This year, he's doing well, but 2013-15, he sucked.)
Some players take more time to warm/loosen up, others are experimenting, and others aren't really trying because they know the stats don't count and aren't competing for a job.
So here is an interesting one.
The Memphis Grizzlies are beyond injured. They are decimated.
No Gasol.
No Randolph.
No MiCon (Michael Conley - get it?)
No Jordan Adams
Even young man Vince Carter, PJ Hairston, and Lance Stephenson are "questionable".
This team tried to make it with their B squad against Houston on Monday, but were humiliated 130-81.
Now they're at home and facing a bad Minnesota team, and are 3.5 point dogs.
Total for the game is 206.5, which is also intriguing. This thin squad (though with Hairston and Stephenson playing) managed only 83 and 81 points in their past 2 contests.
They did somewhat hang with Atlanta, losing 95-83 on the road.
I think I'm going with both the Wolves and the under here.
The Wolves, despite losing to Phoenix last time out, have had some nice games as of late, beating OKC, Brooklyn, Charlotte, and Boston, while hanging close in a few others. They no longer look terrible like they did midseason.
I like the under because Minnesota has had only one game in the past 8 where they scored more than 104, and Memphis has looked terrible offensively since losing their 3 big scorers. Will likely be taking under first half, though.
Kershaw was working on his slider at this time. He was a curve ball, fastball guy and not too successful. Then he discovered a slider in bullpen. You prolly remember the story.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffThe thing I hate about trying to predict spring games is that you don't know what performance you're going to get from the players, even if you have an idea of who's playing.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
For example, Kershaw sucked for 3 years in a row in spring training. (This year, he's doing well, but 2013-15, he sucked.)
Some players take more time to warm/loosen up, others are experimenting, and others aren't really trying because they know the stats don't count and aren't competing for a job.
Kershaw is god... I will redact this post shortly
Druff, post a picture of your and your son's baseball gloves or I am calling DSS. This is when it happens. Not years from now.
Remove the sales tag
When March 1 came, Benjamin said, "It's only 30 days until the Dodgers start", which wasn't quite accurate, but close enough, and it revealed he was excited about baseball season coming.
However, last season he was unable to retain interest in watching an actual game on TV for too long.
I realize that at the stadium it's a different experience, but it's also tougher to see what's going on, especially when you're short and there's adults sitting in front of you.
In one way I'm afraid that driving all that way to Dodger Stadium just to have him bored after 15 minutes could be a disaster, but he also might enjoy all of it. It's hard to tell.
Right now we have tentative plans to go to a game in April or May.
Also no Lebron tonight, and you can get around +200 on the Mavericks (who admittedly haven't looked good lately, but the Cavs are 3-12 in their last 15 without Lebron).
He is only mentioning the Dodgers because he knows you like them. Any child knows better and b/c of you he will experience a lifetime of pain.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
The watching and liking baseball on tv thing versus playing with the old man in the yard ....
His reasons for liking baseball or any sport will shift as the years go by.
Just listened to my kid pitching on the radio. Really wierd hearing your name called out repeatedly.
Got nothing to do with me anymore. Just a spectator.
Wait, you have a son who plays minor league baseball or something?Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarHe is only mentioning the Dodgers because he knows you like them. Any child knows better and b/c of you he will experience a lifetime of pain.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
The watching and liking baseball on tv thing versus playing with the old man in the yard ....
His reasons for liking baseball or any sport will shift as the years go by.
Just listened to my kid pitching on the radio. Really wierd hearing your name called out repeatedly.
Got nothing to do with me anymore. Just a spectator.
I don't think you've mentioned this before.
The Dodgers will get right soon enough. It looks like their plan at the moment is to basically eat this year and play .500-ish ball (barring unexpected strong performances which put them over the top), and then start spending big for the upcoming free agent class once a lot of contract money falls off.
You can't exactly call them failures recently, anyway. They've won three NL west titles, but have just fallen short repeatedly in the postseason. In fact, postseason woes are really what's plagued them since 1988. The regular season has been pretty good overall, with a lot of division championships.
Would be nice if they stopped spending $10-$15 mil per year for middling players with an injury history, but I guess the current regime hasn't quite learned from past mistakes yet.
Pitching will be pretty brutal this year when Kershaw isn't the one on the mound.
D1 College. College is already 15 games into regular season. Kid still has a zero ERA.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffWait, you have a son who plays minor league baseball or something?Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
I don't think you've mentioned this before.
The Dodgers will get right soon enough. It looks like their plan at the moment is to basically eat this year and play .500-ish ball (barring unexpected strong performances which put them over the top), and then start spending big for the upcoming free agent class once a lot of contract money falls off.
You can't exactly call them failures recently, anyway. They've won three NL west titles, but have just fallen short repeatedly in the postseason. In fact, postseason woes are really what's plagued them since 1988. The regular season has been pretty good overall, with a lot of division championships.
Would be nice if they stopped spending $10-$15 mil per year for middling players with an injury history, but I guess the current regime hasn't quite learned from past mistakes yet.
Pitching will be pretty brutal this year when Kershaw isn't the one on the mound.
They broadcast the local radio back on the internet.
any feel on the Warriors Knicks?
I will tail your under.
Ticket #: 251825703] STRAIGHT BET
03/16/2016 @ 05:05 PM
NBA [612] TOTAL u206½-110
(MINNESOTA vrs MEMPHIS) RISKING 120.00 TO WIN 109.00
Miracle I have any money left
No feeling on Warriors Knicks, though believe it or not, I would probably go with Knicks and the points if I had to.
Warriors just not blowing anyone out these days.
Dallas game went from a 20-point deficit disaster in the 3rd to a miraculous comeback. They had the ball, down 2 in the final seconds of the game.
Then Kyrie Irving stole it, fouling had to happen, and it was 4 points with 3 secs left. Meaningless 3 hit at the buzzer, final 99-98 Cavs.
So close, yet so far away. Had I bet spread instead of ML, I would have won.
:gay
Also, Memphis under was awful. Lost 1st half already. GL to Sanlmar for 2nd half, though it's looking very bad.
If I don't at least hit Minn -3, I will go 0-3. (They're up by 9 at the half).
:gay2
Decided to chase by doubling down on Minn by going +1 2nd half, as well as going against my previous pick by going OVER 105.5 -105. Because I still think Memphis is awful and nobody is playing defense today.
Well, this 2nd half over isn't going well. I just need to hope that Minn holds their 9+ point lead.
Finally found a spot where a Rubio wins?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Lost both halftime bets.
Over was dead the whole way but almost caught up and won thanks to the late game fouling (the kind that jsearles says may not exist).
The Minn +1 was really annoying because it was literally leading almost the whole way, until the very end. It was then tied until a meaningless basket at the 5 second mark screwed it.
So I went 1-4 on all of this. Ugh. The annoying thing is that 3 of the 4 I lost ended up close.
If I'm interpreting this site & stats correctly, it looks like scoring actually peaks in the first quarter then steadily decreased each qtr after.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffI don't have any.Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22
But between the possibility of OT (which I didn't even mention in my post above) and the fact that the scoring DEFINITELY increases in the final minutes in a close game (watch any NBA game for evidence of this), I like the first half under bets WAY better than full game bets. The OT factor alone is big, though admittedly that's less of a big deal if it's likely to be a blowout.
With the aforementioned Golden State game, my main benefit to taking the over was the fact I was getting 117 when the full game line was 230, but the way Golden State has played lately (close game against Phoenix, losing to Lakers) also made me happy I didn't have to sweat the end of the game or OT bullshit.
https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/sta...oints-per-game
I assume this is because teams actually buckle down defensively in the 2nd half, fatigue is likely a factor, etc
I doubt this is true when the games are close, as the 4th almost always gets a boost from the late fouling.Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22If I'm interpreting this site & stats correctly, it looks like scoring actually peaks in the first quarter then steadily decreased each qtr after.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/sta...oints-per-game
I assume this is because teams actually buckle down defensively in the 2nd half, fatigue is likely a factor, etc
But with everything equal, I still prefer 1st half unders because you can't get screwed by OT.
It's hard to dispute your very narrow argument with facts or stats. League wide scoring is much lower in 2nd half than 1st; that's indisputable.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffI doubt this is true when the games are close, as the 4th almost always gets a boost from the late fouling.Quote:
Originally Posted by jsearles22
But with everything equal, I still prefer 1st half unders because you can't get screwed by OT.
I'd argue in a very tight 1-4 point game there is rarely any fouling, in the NBA they much more often just play out possessions defensively as the shot clock is only 24 seconds. Sure fouling happens at the very end at times. But as a rule of thumb, and again statistically supported, scoring is less in the 4th than any other qtr
NCAA Tournament Tip-Off Game:
Duke/NC Wilmington under 156
UConn -3 imho