Official Presidential Polling and Odds thread

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Originally Posted by tgull

Make no mistake about it, I called this race 100%. All banter aside, I am the best poster in a generation. I might gracefully step aside from the forums. I literally can do no more. I feel like I contributed enough at this point.

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Credit where credit is due, you were right all along. You really nailed it, well done.

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Originally Posted by tony bagadonuts

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Originally Posted by tgull

Make no mistake about it, I called this race 100%. All banter aside, I am the best poster in a generation. I might gracefully step aside from the forums. I literally can do no more. I feel like I contributed enough at this point.

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Credit where credit is due, you were right all along. You really nailed it, well done.

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anyone who ignored him in this thread lost money, and anyone who ignored him in the typhoon thread died.


everything he uses to post here should be tax deductable.

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Originally Posted by tony bagadonuts

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Originally Posted by tgull

Make no mistake about it, I called this race 100%. All banter aside, I am the best poster in a generation. I might gracefully step aside from the forums. I literally can do no more. I feel like I contributed enough at this point.

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Credit where credit is due, you were right all along. You really nailed it, well done.

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Yeah, it's been a great run, but I am probably going to pack it in on the forums. The problem I have is I get the most hits, by a landslide, especially now that Tyde has been permanently banned. But Druff, he never shares in the revenue. He keeps it all for himself, which is his right. But its also my right to leave. I do the heavy lift and, well, I am almost laughed at, 'you keep working tgull we keep the cash'. I have some soul searching to do whether I even want to be here any longer.

He should at least let you wet your beak.

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Originally Posted by tgull

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Originally Posted by VaughnP

https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1852519698958889065

If you assume that Trump is winning AZ, NC, and GA then give Kamala a generous 50/50 chance in Michigan, 45% chance in Wisconsin and a 40% chance in PA, ignoring scenarios that are actually possible like Trump winning NV and NH, needing to sweep all three means her chances would be 9%. Based on what we know of voter registration changes, polling, and early voting, it's not unrealistic to say Trump is a 4 to 1 favorite in PA and that the extensive data available there and what it shows means conditions are likely to have bleed over into the other rust belt states. If you assumed all three are 50/50 her chances only increase to 12.5%. If you assume she is a 3 to 2 favorite in Michigan and 50/50 in the other two then her odds only increase to a 15% chance. The fact that PolyMarket is now back again below 60/40 given what is known just shows how retarded the general population is and blinded by bias people are when it comes to politics.

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I said this before, I traveled the entire state in WI a month ago. All the way to the Upper Peninsula of MI and as far south as the border of Illinois. Where I was, it was MAGA. Every now and then you would see a Harris sign but the Trump signs were overwhelming. I did not spent any time in downtown Milwaukee, but I can assure you every rural county is Trump by a huge margin. Whenever I travel a state I am not familiar with I always search out Mom and Pops for lunch and dinner, just my thing. Yes anecdotal but the places had banners inside for Trump and they were packed. Obviously no Harris voter would go in given their TDS. Anecdotal yes, but I have to believe WI is going to be called early for Trump. I already maxed out $9,500 on Trump and not betting anymore. But if I had thought about it, I would have put half of it on WI for Trump.

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Still looking to degen off on the election, 9 days later?

You can.

There are 3 undecided House seats, all in CA:

CA-13
CA-21
CA-45

Republicans have 220 locked up. CA-13 is a slight (albeit surprising) R lead, and it's considered a 59% favorite to go GOP, according to analyst Josh Whitfield. CA-45 is a tiny R lead, but highly likely to evaporate. CA-21 is all but over, going to Dems.

This makes 221 the most likely outcome, especially if you believe Tran (D) is winning CA-45, which I think he is. In fact, Whitfield seems to think the 89% forecast for Tran is low, believing it would "take a miracle" for Steel (R) to win.

This basically leaves 221 as a 58% or so chance, and you can get it on Poly for 50c, so there's a little value there.

https://polymarket.com/event/of-gop-...epresentatives

Firing on 222 for 6c seems tempting, but don't do it. GOP isn't winning CA-21, and CA-45 is looking really bad.


https://x.com/JoshLWhitfield/status/1857008211347263876

Oh, and don't be tempted to fire the 28c for 220-224 seats on Kalshi, which seems like a huge advantage play.

It's not.

Their rules are different. They are doing it based upon February 1, 2025, which means the two vacated FL seats won't count for the GOP, as they won't have been filled by then.

In hockey you can bet a GIFT. Goal In the First Ten minutes. It commands a premium price and some guys will wait a minute or so to bet it live at a reduced number.

You risk a quick goal before you get your bet down.

Let’s not wait on this




Hate tying up money on futures but maybe I don’t wait that long for a 160% return.

Maybe I’m feeling it after my 7:1 Biden call. Old guys are money.