wow blake way to go,I bet you're a real hit at parties
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wow blake way to go,I bet you're a real hit at parties
Quote:
Originally Posted by SPIT this
Ok great. I'm open to amounts. $500? If that sounds good I can draft up some detailsQuote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
I'm not oversold on DJT, so let's do $250. Give me the details and we can lock it up.
you're concerned that biden can get over 8%?Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendQuote:
Originally Posted by SPIT this
I'm not oversold on DJT, so let's do $250. Give me the details and we can lock it up.
Sure, $250 sounds good.Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendQuote:
Originally Posted by SPIT this
I'm not oversold on DJT, so let's do $250. Give me the details and we can lock it up.
If Donald Trump wins the popular vote by 1+ vote, you win $250. If Biden wins by 8% + 1 vote, I win $250. If Biden wins by less than 8%, it's a wash and we both get our $250 back. If either candidate dies prior to the election, the bet is void and we both get our money back. We must send $250 to Druff no later than August 31st. We also agree that Druff will mediate any disputes we may have, and his decision will be final.
If you agree, we can make this binding. We can't back out/change our mind, but we don't have to physically send the money until August 31st.
it sounds a little bit like tellafriend is doubting trump wins at all imo
Ya y’all screaming in delight for your fanboys concert called Holed. Tine on vocals and bcr on bass, they soooo dreamy you gonna faint.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter SobchakBeg pardon?Quote:
Originally Posted by splitthis
I would have thought Tine on bass and BCR on vocals, but yeah it'll be about like thisQuote:
Originally Posted by splitthisYa y’all screaming in delight for your fanboys concert called Holed. Tine on vocals and bcr on bass, they soooo dreamy you gonna faint.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6DfG7sml-Q
Split, that would be you @1:19
gamblebotschafedpenis, i have some data why u would be nuts to lay biden -200 PA
Sounds like you should try to get him to bet it with youQuote:
Originally Posted by thesidedish
damn, good info right there...Quote:
Originally Posted by thesidedish
that's the kinda shit I was trying to figure out...ie is there anything outside of uncle joe's dementia and wondering hands that could fuck me at -200...
definitely gives pause at that price...
you need to check those numbers. i think the Philly suburbs went hard blue
Berks: R+5,768
Bucks: D+1,807
Chester: D+11,501
Delaware: D+17,310
Lehigh: R+1,306
Montgomery: D+18,813
Northampton: R+3,699
Philadelphia: R+15,92
also keep in mind the democrats did better in the philly suburbs than anytime in history, including flipping a county council from Republican to democrats for the first time since the civil war
also pa is all mail in vote which republicans seem to think hurts them
I didn’t read your original proposition very carefully the first time. I assumed I would win if Biden didn’t win the popular vote by 8%. It will be unlikely trump wins the popular vote unless the riots run through the summer. So you would basically be on a freeroll. If you give me/trump 3% I will do it. Otherwise I don’t see any +ev.Quote:
Originally Posted by SPIT thisSure, $250 sounds good.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
If Donald Trump wins the popular vote by 1+ vote, you win $250. If Biden wins by 8% + 1 vote, I win $250. If Biden wins by less than 8%, it's a wash and we both get our $250 back. If either candidate dies prior to the election, the bet is void and we both get our money back. We must send $250 to Druff no later than August 31st. We also agree that Druff will mediate any disputes we may have, and his decision will be final.
If you agree, we can make this binding. We can't back out/change our mind, but we don't have to physically send the money until August 31st.
Sure, I'm open to that too. So you have Trump +3%. If Biden wins by less than 3% or loses, you win. $250. Escrow to Druff by August 31st. Deal?Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendI didn’t read your original proposition very carefully the first time. I assumed I would win if Biden didn’t win the popular vote by 8%. It will be unlikely trump wins the popular vote unless the riots run through the summer. So you would basically be on a freeroll. If you give me/trump 3% I will do it. Otherwise I don’t see any +ev.Quote:
Originally Posted by SPIT this
"I didn’t read your original proposition very carefully the first time"Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendI didn’t read your original proposition very carefully the first time. I assumed I would win if Biden didn’t win the popular vote by 8%. It will be unlikely trump wins the popular vote unless the riots run through the summer. So you would basically be on a freeroll. If you give me/trump 3% I will do it. Otherwise I don’t see any +ev.Quote:
Originally Posted by SPIT this
You must be 1 hell of a lawyer
Whale
I wish I had your confidence spit. You’ve nailed most of this thus far, so I’m heartened you’re this confident
What’s 8% roughly? 375ev’s?
spit this' confidence is somehow making me confident
If trump wins or loses by less than 3% I win. If Biden wins by 8% +1 you win. Anything in between is a push. $250 w druff. Let’s post by 9/30. No need to tie the money up. But the bet is booked As of today. Election must go off w trump and Biden on the ticket and alive on Election Day. Agreed?Quote:
Originally Posted by SPIT thisSure, I'm open to that too. So you have Trump +3%. If Biden wins by less than 3% or loses, you win. $250. Escrow to Druff by August 31st. Deal?Quote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
I don't think Biden will win by 8%. I just think it's /more/ likely than Trump winning by any pop vote margin. If I had to guess right now, I'd guess 5%. Heck, I'm betting on Trump in Georgia, which is down to 52% now. If Biden wins by 8%, he'll win Georgia, so if anything it's a further hedge against that.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Ok no, this is getting silly. I thought you wanted the o/u at 3%. I'm not letting you buy 3% when I only win at 8%+. Forget it.Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendIf trump wins or loses by less than 3% I win. If Biden wins by 8% +1 you win. Anything in between is a push. $250 w druff. Let’s post by 9/30. No need to tie the money up. But the bet is booked As of today. Election must go off w trump and Biden on the ticket and alive on Election Day. Agreed?Quote:
Originally Posted by SPIT this
But I am glad you admit it's more likely that Biden will win by 8% than Trump winning by any margin. Even the most ardent Trumpers are hoping for a small popular vote loss that results in an electoral win.
Yes, approximately. It should look something like this. With IA/OH lean D, and TX lean R.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
.Quote:
Originally Posted by big dick"I didn’t read your original proposition very carefully the first time"Quote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
You must be 1 hell of a lawyer
Whale
This might be a good time to buy low on Trump on Predictit, even if you think he will ultimately lose.
As I said before, there are various factors likely coming which can prop him back up:
1) General backlash against the riots and the "defund the police" crap, which has been rapidly irritating the swing voter types
2) V-shaped recovery which is likely coming in some form
3) Biden making a fool of himself and everyone fully realizing they'd be voting for a senile person
This might not be enough to push Trump over the top, but I think his numbers will look a LOT better going forward. That plus the fact that Presidential challengers tend to do better in the polls around the middle of an election year, only to slip as time passes and more negative things about them are exposed.
Item 1 will work against Trump not Biden. Chaos always hits the incumbent.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Item 2 isn't going to happen. The markets are back, but the markets aren't the economy. Recovery for the middle and working class won't pick up much steam until next year.
Item 3 Biden couldn't make more of a fool of himself than Trump.
Biden has been in politics for 40 years and has run for president before. There are no more skeletons in the closet, that's why Trump and his people are already making them up.
Trump can still win due to voter suppression in key states, the Electoral College and the Russians. It won't be because he will actually increase his support.
:lol2Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter SobchakItem 1 will work against Trump not Biden. Chaos always hits the incumbent.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Item 2 isn't going to happen. The markets are back, but the markets aren't the economy. Recovery for the middle and working class won't pick up much steam until next year.
Item 3 Biden couldn't make more of a fool of himself than Trump.
Biden has been in politics for 40 years and has run for president before. There are no more skeletons in the closet, that's why Trump and his people are already making them up.
Trump can still win due to voter suppression in key states, the Electoral College and the Russians. It won't be because he will actually increase his support.
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It's fun watching you tilt. I bet you're just a giant panda bear in real life. You're ok with me but stop using the n-word will ya.Quote:
Originally Posted by dwai:lol2Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak
:lol2
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I don't think I've used it in awhileQuote:
Originally Posted by Walter SobchakIt's fun watching you tilt. I bet you're just a giant panda bear in real life. You're ok with me but stop using the n-word will ya.Quote:
Originally Posted by dwai
This should be bumped. It's been my version of the bible. How glorious is all this going to be after Biden wins in a landslide? MAGA morons get ready to enjoy your McPence sandwich.
How Godly is Tommy Lee to know that we are halfway to removing confederate statues and replacing them with BLM Leaders? A George Floyd statue replacing Robert the loser Lee? Would love to see it.
"The CNN poll out today is another skewed anti-Trump poll of only 25% Republican. It’s a poll of 1,259 adults – not even registered voters"
lol, so cnn is rigging polls now.
Unskew the polls!
Trump goes from +110 to even on sportsbook today while he gets a few pennies cheaper on predictit hmmmmmmm MORONS!!!!
So what's the problem? Go make money off the disparity.Quote:
Originally Posted by thesidedish
makes sense polls are fake now....... plenty of money and potential influence to be made off of them.
there's been polls/ratings about trump since the 1st day he took office..almost to the point where there was one every week.
About 28% of voters identify as Republican. So 25% doesn't sound far off.
Dish if you’re thinking trump slide, him winning the popular vote is priced at .17 . Value if you think he’ll win bigger and I know you like long shots.
I looked at that CNN poll. 25% identified as Republicans, 32% as Democrats. That's pretty close to what affiliations tend to be:
https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/p...filiation.aspx
I know, Gallup is fake too.
4) Putin.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Quote:
Originally Posted by SPIT thisSo what's the problem? Go make money off the disparity.Quote:
Originally Posted by thesidedish
that's the point of my post moron!!!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
got my eyes on Trump to win by 100-149 EVs for .06