Official Presidential Polling and Odds thread

a little levity for our morning


https://twitter.com/i/status/1853645610810786049

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Originally Posted by VaughnP

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Originally Posted by PLOL

6 votes have officially been counted in the presidential race. Tied 3 to 3. How poetic.

https://x.com/Politics_Polls/status/1853666986489688198

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Again, this is probably an omen. I can't say it enough, Trump was running against a much, much stronger candidate in 2016 and lost New Hampshire by 2k votes. This was RFK jr's best state. New Hampshire is also per capita the most Libertarian place in the United States - the NH Libertarian party endorsed Trump tonight. I know Libertarians, have voted mostly Libertarian since I was a teenager. A realistic outcome is that Trump gets to 270 before even bringing the blue wall states into question. The attacks on free speech, threats of war etc. is enough to push the most ardent Libertarian into holding their nose and voting Trump.

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:lol4

If the market is to be believed Wisconsin is back to a coin flip.

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Originally Posted by VaughnP

This thread is starting to remind more and more of when I tried to convince you all to buy Ethereum and Bitcoin when they cratered to btc 2k and eth to 50 dollars. I actually bought quite a few Ethereum in the low 40s if I remember correctly.

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I mean, I don't even know where to start, but I think I need a crystal ball avatar. No one listened in 2016. 2020 wasn't fun because I knew he was going to lose, but correctly predicted that the polls would be off and the race would be much tighter than what it seemed (43k votes).

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Originally Posted by VaughnP

https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1852519698958889065

If you assume that Trump is winning AZ, NC, and GA then give Kamala a generous 50/50 chance in Michigan, 45% chance in Wisconsin and a 40% chance in PA, ignoring scenarios that are actually possible like Trump winning NV and NH, needing to sweep all three means her chances would be 9%. Based on what we know of voter registration changes, polling, and early voting, it's not unrealistic to say Trump is a 4 to 1 favorite in PA and that the extensive data available there and what it shows means conditions are likely to have bleed over into the other rust belt states. If you assumed all three are 50/50 her chances only increase to 12.5%. If you assume she is a 3 to 2 favorite in Michigan and 50/50 in the other two then her odds only increase to a 15% chance. The fact that PolyMarket is now back again below 60/40 given what is known just shows how retarded the general population is and blinded by bias people are when it comes to politics.

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Originally Posted by Sam Snead

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Originally Posted by tgull

I said this before, I traveled the entire state in WI a month ago. All the way to the Upper Peninsula of MI and as far south as the border of Illinois. Where I was, it was MAGA. Every now and then you would see a Harris sign but the Trump signs were overwhelming. I did not spent any time in downtown Milwaukee, but I can assure you every rural county is Trump by a huge margin. Whenever I travel a state I am not familiar with I always search out Mom and Pops for lunch and dinner, just my thing. Yes anecdotal but the places had banners inside for Trump and they were packed. Obviously no Harris voter would go in given their TDS. Anecdotal yes, but I have to believe WI is going to be called early for Trump. I already maxed out $9,500 on Trump and not betting anymore. But if I had thought about it, I would have put half of it on WI for Trump.

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YOU KNOW JACK SHIT ABOUT WISCONSIN. TRUMP LOST THE LAST ELECTION BY 30K VOTES. MILWAUKEE AND MADISON MAKE UP A MAJORITY OF THE ELECTOR. IF YOU GIVE TRUMP THREE OF THE MOST POPULATED REPUBLICAN COUNTIES CALLED THE W.O.W COUNTIES. WAUKESHA, OZAUKEE, AND WASHINGTON. HE STILL LOSES. WAUKESHA COUNTY OVER THE PAST 12 YEARS HAS BEEN VOTING MORE AND MORE DEMOCRAT. THEIR REPUBLICAN MAYOR ENDORSED HARRIS A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO. NO SHOT HE WINS WISCONSIN.

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Do not doubt me again. Ever.

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Originally Posted by BCR

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Originally Posted by Daly

So here is where Im at.

5% chance we have nation wide polling errors which produce an unexpected outcome or 3 three.

Expected outcome = Az, Nc, Ge for Trump….. and at this point Im conceding Mi to Harris as she is now upwards of -200 to win Mi.

Nevada and its 6 votes are probably going to be electorally useless.

25% chance Wi breaks for Trump and gives him the election win with 272/278 votes. Harris is currently -150 there.

70% chance the entire election all comes down to Pa.

Trump is currently -135/+125 in Pa. By my projection it is very very likely it will decide everything.

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5% systemic polling error feels low, but you are better at this shit than me. It's strange how I have felt the same ever since the two debates. Hers put her in the game, and JD's shifted it back a little, but to me, it has always came down to did the pollsters over adjust to being so off in 2016 and 2020 or not? Who is up 1 this week or 2 the next is irrelevant. I still think Trump on the ballot is just a different beast than anything else. The Trump people I know who are die hards couldn't name their mayor or senator, but they will be there on Tuesday 100%.

This one strikes me as tricky even to books. When they react that large to a Selzer poll, it tells me they don't have some insider crystal ball on this one either. Either Selzer is right and an army of old ladies are deeply offended their granddaughters have less rights than they did or she caught a weird set. I don't believe she is corrupt as she has faced the scorn of liberals before, but she is 68 and who knows? Maybe a $5 million payout for retirement was worth her stellar record. Almost everyone will sell out for the right number.

I have felt for the longest time it's Trump 65/35, but I am captive to what surrounds me like anyone, and what surrounds me isn't 65 year old women.

I will think Trump has it in the bag and then see a poll where abortion and the economy are dead ass tied for biggest issue in a Wisconsin or PA poll and think wtf? Really? Abortion ruling has been bigger than I expected when it came down, but top issue? Not all who answer it as top issue are Dems. Its super important to evangelicals also, but top issue for anyone seems crazy.

I don't know if I'd say landslide, but still think one wins comfortably. I will be shocked if the polls are this dead on. As someone who doesn't care all that much, its like a game I haven't bet on where I hope it's chaos and close and fun, but usually when I want a close game it's 42-3 in the third and I am watching netflix.

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Well clearly grandma who has never been off by more than a few points being off by 16 or more? She took the retirement bonus. The newspaper game is dead and I am sure her retirement just became more comfortable. The game is the game.

Congrats to Vaughn and Tgull. Most consistently right this election. I hated that I almost always agreed with them. I didn't care about the presidency, to me that was a choice of I am at a party and two 300lb chicks want to fuck me. Sure that's a binanry choice if I must get laid, but I can stay home and jack off. I hated that if they were right it meant a wave. Oh well, life goes on and it's easier to run against in the future if the dems find a real candidate and quit with the woke shit.


I didn't see how it couldn't be a systemic polling error one way or the other. Either the old lady was right and Kamala was going to win everything, or she got paid and it was going to be 2016 all over again. This one was 42-3 in the third quarter as I feared,

Congrats to Trump voters. You got your second term.

[QUOTE=BCR;1137993]

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Originally Posted by BCR

5% systemic polling error feels low, but you are better at this shit than me. It's strange how I have felt the same ever since the two debates. Hers put her in the game, and JD's shifted it back a little, but to me, it has always came down to did the pollsters over adjust to being so off in 2016 and 2020 or not? Who is up 1 this week or 2 the next is irrelevant. I still think Trump on the ballot is just a different beast than anything else. The Trump people I know who are die hards couldn't name their mayor or senator, but they will be there on Tuesday 100%.

This one strikes me as tricky even to books. When they react that large to a Selzer poll, it tells me they don't have some insider crystal ball on this one either. Either Selzer is right and an army of old ladies are deeply offended their granddaughters have less rights than they did or she caught a weird set. I don't believe she is corrupt as she has faced the scorn of liberals before, but she is 68 and who knows? Maybe a $5 million payout for retirement was worth her stellar record. Almost everyone will sell out for the right number.

Congrats to Trump voters. You got your second term.

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The issue for me was the SCOTUS. Forget abortion rulings, those come and go over time. But there is no doubt with unchecked power she, given her leftist tendencies, would have added 5 justices just to get her way which would have destroyed this judicial system. Now that is over. You should be thankful. The two wars overseas, and the border will be fixed. The economy, who knows, its so much larger than a President.

This thread will disappear in a few days. But make not mistake about it, this was the thread of the year. I did it again. And I am not even compensated from the owner with the profits!

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Originally Posted by tgull

This thread is to discuss polling and odds. If you read my prior posts I said Kamala would have a steady lead about 5 points out of the convention nationally. This is a natural bounce and a media orgasm period for Harris. Obviously it won't last, but here is the landscape as of today, August 10th:

Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Harris
NY Times/Siena
Trump 46, Harris 50
Harris
+4
Michigan: Trump vs. Harris
NY Times/Siena
Harris 50, Trump 46
Harris
+4
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Harris
NY Times/Siena
Harris 50, Trump 46
Harris
+4

Nationally Harris is ahead roughly by a couple points. She has also surged ahead in Polymarket 51-46. Ignore Predictit it's retail traders betting $50, Poly is where the real bettors are.

We will track the polls and betting markets here. I think Trump will surge come October, and will try to find a market where I will I can bet five figures but I am not there yet. Anyway, this will be a thread where we can track polls and markets and presumably make bets. I get a certain portion of posters here are poor, so take your political opinions to one of the other 20 threads on the front page.

As much as I want Trump to win, I will to bet Harris for a payday if I think she will win. Holding my powder for October.

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Originally Posted by VaughnP

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Originally Posted by VaughnP

Here are the final polls from 2020:



Here are the current polls:





The actual outcome was Biden (thanks to mail in ballot harvesting) 4.5%. Despite the 4.5% edge, the election was actually decided by roughly 43,000 votes - Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia - which I'm sure was all kosher.

Note the obvious extreme bias of the 2020 final libtardian polls. If the election were held today, Trump wins, but it is still close. If the polls have Kamala up .5% it's not unrealistic to suggest she's actually down 4+%. To win the election she's almost surely going to have to have a 6.5% reversal at minimum. Joe was supposedly up 7 points on this date, Hillary 8 points.

Despite the ongoing billion dollar propaganda operation, this is the actual reality of the situation. It's hard to account for Kamala's states of Libtardia bias, so she could possibly be down even more.

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Calling bullshit on these NYT polls. No way is she polling better than Biden in these states while being down 7.5 points of where he was in the RCP average. She is not "ahead by a couple of points nationally".

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Originally Posted by VaughnP

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1843363275398169020


Again, this not already being at least 3 to 2 based on known information is insane. That's factoring in the massively dumb, brainwashed left. In my opinion, Trump is more like a 4 to 1 favorite at this point. If the election were today, 10 to 1 or more. The Democrats are depending on more ballot stuffing, harvesting, fraudulent overseas ballots etc. that they are not going to get away with or get enough of this time.

Also, look at how close Virginia is now.

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Originally Posted by VaughnP

https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/1836350800236367969

https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/1836345753008013325


Back to national polling, there are two sets of polls producing wildly different results. These keep being discussed without people looking into why. Literally every single one of these Harris +4, +5, or more "polls" are conducted using opt-in online survey panels, almost all of which too are revealed to be heavily Dem weighted when data is available. TIPP too switched to this cost cutting method. Feel free to do your own research.

The polls paying the extra money and putting in the extra effort to work around the response bias problems and conduct live interviews are floating between Harris +1 to Trump +3. We've had a couple instances of internal polling leaks or known insiders openly discussing data they are privy to, both sides show a race completely different than what the biased media is trying to convey. Internal polling is not done with opt-in survey panels and is not weighted to get the results they want. These polls are conducted literally daily. Think back to Hilldawg having to cancel her victory fireworks show.

Campaign ad spending data is all publicly available. The Kamala campaign is spending 40% more money in Michigan than in Georgia, nearly as much as in Georgia in Wisconsin, and less than all of these states in North Carolina - this alone should be eye opening. It's not hard to infer what the internal polling is guiding all to do. When you break this down per capita on population size, the problems in Wisconsin become more apparent.

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I'm surprised how nobody caught JD Vance reciting this about polling almost word for word two days later in a podcast interview.

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Originally Posted by VaughnP

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Originally Posted by vpbob

BS. Trump is devoting more resources to WI than Harris.
https://x.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1834604207514542377
Per electoral vote, Trump is spending the second most per electoral vote in WI, whereas Harris is spending the fourth most.
https://x.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1836096702912303591

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What even is your argument? Does her spending in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada look to be that of the candidate supposedly ahead? Trump is spending significantly less, and the media would have one believe that the current states most on the line for either candidate besides the obvious Pennsylvania are Georgia and North Carolina.

Ads target individuals, not electoral votes. Basing the ad spending on electoral votes is obviously a gross oversimplification. Wisconsin has a population of 5.9 million, Georgia has a population of 10.9 million, and North Carolina has 10.7 million. When you break this down by eligible voting population it gets crazier. WI 4.5 million, GA 7.8 million, NC 8.1 million.

Her campaign is spending $7.5 per eligible voter in Wisconsin, $5 per in GA, $3.70 per person in NC. Feel free to pull the eligible voter data yourself. This was based off the totals from the last election and rounded up.

Go back and look at the spending from the month before, Trump's campaign spent considerably less than this month. One candidate is in a countering and holding pattern, the other is in a desperation pattern. What's your explanation for her extreme spending in Nevada? Kamala's campaign has more money, but this doesn't mean they will just waste it.

Nevada is their hope to counter Trump winning Pennsylvania while planning for more Georgia shenanigans. They've been campaigning in North Carolina and testing the ad effectiveness to see if they can move the needle at all for this same scenario.

Though a less likely scenario, her winning Nevada guards against Trump losing every blue wall state and still winning. High quality public polls for New Hampshire would be interesting. RFK was doing better there than any state, and remember Kamala campaigned there after he dropped out while simultaneously forcing stories about the "pathetic", "sad", "sorry" state of Trump's NH campaign.

When you understand the desperation and that the mainstream media is essentially the propaganda arm of the DNC, how they've covered GA and NC makes much more sense.

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Originally Posted by VaughnP

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Originally Posted by The Boz

In other words….a Fucking tossup.

I guess this makes you feel better each day. Maybe instead of posting this garbage hourly you go out and knock some doors for Trump. That might make a difference as opposed to trolling here all day with garbage polls.

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The race is not a toss up. She is polling 3 or 4 points worse in the battleground states on average than Biden did in 2020. The public polling, despite the multitude of intentionally biased, fake, partisan pollsters, is starting to reflect what the Trump internal polling has had since she entered the race. This is three straight elections of these polls conveniently tightening to save face as the campaigns end. Trump's internals were leaked several times, +2 or so across all seven states.

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Originally Posted by VaughnP

These were the 2016 voting demographics.


ChatGPT:

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While precise percentages for male vs. female early and Election Day voting can vary by election cycle, some recent data offers a general estimate. In the 2020 U.S. election, for example:

1. **Early Voting**:
- Women made up **about 54-55%** of early and mail-in voters.
- Men comprised approximately **45-46%** of early and mail-in voters.

2. **Election Day Voting**:
- Men made up a slightly larger share of in-person Election Day voters, comprising roughly **52-53%**.
- Women accounted for approximately **47-48%** of Election Day voters.

These percentages show that while women are more likely to vote early, men make up a greater share of those voting on Election Day. This pattern can vary slightly by state and election type (e.g., midterms vs. presidential), but these figures provide a general trend seen in recent high-turnout elections.

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2020.


What does this mean? That unless you believe Kamala is doing better with white women than Biden and Hilldawg, then spinning the battleground turn out so far by gender as some kind of positive for her is literally retarded. It's actually the opposite, and then remember all the indicators of Trump performing significantly better this time among blacks and Hispanics. Factor those increases into both sides of the gender equation. The betting markets have fell for these gender gaps and the usual suspect state polling released over the last two days.

The amount of propaganda being released is at an all time high. Trump has never in any of the previous elections had anywhere close to as clear of a lead than he does now.

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What a close, "tossup" race guys. Can't believe it.

There has to be a lot of mathematically minded people now looking at the 81 million votes Joe got in 2020.

Trump got 72 mil this time, just 2 mil under his 2020 total.

Harris got 67 mil which is a whopping 14 mil under what Biden got in 2020.

The 81 mil is way out of whack. Biden broke the record at that time by like 15 mil votes. Where the hell did that many extra votes come from?

It’s a mystery for now. But I’m sure people will be trying to solve it.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

There has to be a lot of mathematically minded people now looking at the 81 million votes Joe got in 2020.

Trump got 72 mil this time, just 2 mil under his 2020 total.

Harris got 67 mil which is a whopping 14 mil under what Biden got in 2020.

The 81 mil is way out of whack. Biden broke the record at that time by like 15 mil votes. Where the hell did that many extra votes come from?

It’s a mystery for now. But I’m sure people will be trying to solve it.

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There isnt much of a mystery here.

in 2020 Biden voters were people were concerned about Trump, hated Covid and wanted a change.
This time around Covid is effectively gone, between 15-18 million* young people didnt vote, didnt like the idea of Harris, and werent as concerned about how things are going.


Harris did not engage younger voters particularly well, so they stayed home.
Tim Walz was a reasonable enough choice but didnt shine as such.

The Democrats needed to change horse much earier, in a clearer manner, pick someone who appeared younger than Walz and engage much better.


*From the initial information I have seen, this may change.

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Originally Posted by tgull

This thread will disappear in a few days. But make not mistake about it, this was the thread of the year. I did it again. And I am not even compensated from the owner with the profits!

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You def deserve a tip of the hat for keeping this thread updated. It was worth reading all the way through.


Well done

Make no mistake about it, I called this race 100%. All banter aside, I am the best poster in a generation. I might gracefully step aside from the forums. I literally can do no more. I feel like I contributed enough at this point.

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Originally Posted by go_buccos

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Originally Posted by go_buccos

Above were the opening Pinny odds on 9/12/2024 for each battleground state. Current Pinny odds below:

EC Winner: Trump -177, Harris +150
Arizona: Trump -260
Florida: Trump -1870
Georgia: Trump -243
Maine: OFF
Michigan TIE -110
Nevada: Harris -115
New Hampshire: Harris -700
North Carolina: Trump -208
PA: Trump -143
Texas: Trump -2225
Virginia: Harris -680
Wisconsin: Trump -123

Popular vote winner: (just added) Harris -252

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The above update was from 10/17.

11/4 Pinny update/comparison as of 6:30 PM CST:

EC Winner: Trump -162/Harris +141

Popular Vote: Trump +271/Harris -326

Arizona: Trump -339
Florida: Trump -2500
Georgia: Trump -211
Iowa: (just added) Trump -605
Michigan: Harris -205
Nevada: Trump -135
New Hampshire: Harris -534
North Carolina: Trump -226
Pennsylvania: Trump -131
Virginia: Harris -1206
Wisconsin: Harris -147

Some other markets just added:

Democrat total states won: 21.5 O -162
Republican total states won: 29.5 U -194

Trump wins BOTH MI and PA: +245
Trump wins BOTH MI and WI: +259
Harris scoops Rust Belt: (PA/MI/WI) +156
Trump scoops AZ/NV/NC/GA: +115
Trump scoops all 7 battlegrounds: +386

Harris OVER 51.999% popular vote: +150

Record turnout according to uselectionatlas.org: YES -172

County markets:

Bucks, PA: Harris -228
Clark, NV (Vegas) OFF
Erie, PA: Trump -142
Kent, MI: (Grand Rapids) Harris -230
Macomb, MI: (Detroit burbs) OFF
Maricopa, AZ: (Phoenix) Harris -121
Pinellas, FL: (Tampa Bay) Trump -331

Values as I see them at these prices:

MONSTER value: (3 units each)

Trump -605 in Iowa. (It opened yesterday something like -408 so best value already gone. That poll was complete quackery. I would bet it up to -900)
Trump -135 in Nevada. (Jon Ralston knows his shit and he's pretty much called it for Trump already)
Harris +184 in North Carolina (That asshat tranny-loving GOP guv candidate has a legit chance to cost him the entire state)

Solid value: (2 units each)

Trump popular vote +271
Trump +837 in Virginia
Trump to scoop NC/NV/AZ/GA: NO -139. (See above)
Record turnout YES -172

Thin value: (1 unit each)

Harris EC Winner +141
Trump +121 in Wisconsin
Trump +167 in Michigan
Harris scoops PA/WI/MI: YES +156
Trump wins all 7 battlegrounds: NO -501 (again this is mostly due to the NC situation)

Really not sure why the market has moved so heavily for Harris in Michigan in the last week. It was -110/-110 a few days ago.

Gonna be a VERY interesting day tomorrow.

Good luck to all who have wagered.

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Results:

Monster: 2-1, +3u
Solid: 1-3, -2.8u
Thin: 2-3, -4.54u

Total: 5-7, -4.34u

Not great.

So guess what?

My "dead" bet of Trump 1.5-2 Point Win in PA, which I couldn't unload for 17c last night (except 300 shares, out of my 4800 or so), is now highly likely to win.

Trump quietly fell from a 3 point lead to 1.9 point lead overnight and this morning. That will be almost a $5k swing for me if it holds.

Considering unloading it (if I can) for 88c.

Some guy put in a bid at 25,000 shares for 0.5c each ($125) and it vanished. Not sure if it sold or if he just gave up and withdrew. I considered doing this myself before I went to sleep. At least I was smart enough to take my positions off sale at the end of the show, saying that I see it trending that way and I don't want to have my shares disappear while I'm sleeping for 17c.

Not an active market though, so I probably can't unload.

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Originally Posted by go_buccos

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Originally Posted by go_buccos

The above update was from 10/17.

11/4 Pinny update/comparison as of 6:30 PM CST:

EC Winner: Trump -162/Harris +141

Popular Vote: Trump +271/Harris -326

Arizona: Trump -339
Florida: Trump -2500
Georgia: Trump -211
Iowa: (just added) Trump -605
Michigan: Harris -205
Nevada: Trump -135
New Hampshire: Harris -534
North Carolina: Trump -226
Pennsylvania: Trump -131
Virginia: Harris -1206
Wisconsin: Harris -147

Some other markets just added:

Democrat total states won: 21.5 O -162
Republican total states won: 29.5 U -194

Trump wins BOTH MI and PA: +245
Trump wins BOTH MI and WI: +259
Harris scoops Rust Belt: (PA/MI/WI) +156
Trump scoops AZ/NV/NC/GA: +115
Trump scoops all 7 battlegrounds: +386

Harris OVER 51.999% popular vote: +150

Record turnout according to uselectionatlas.org: YES -172

County markets:

Bucks, PA: Harris -228
Clark, NV (Vegas) OFF
Erie, PA: Trump -142
Kent, MI: (Grand Rapids) Harris -230
Macomb, MI: (Detroit burbs) OFF
Maricopa, AZ: (Phoenix) Harris -121
Pinellas, FL: (Tampa Bay) Trump -331

Values as I see them at these prices:

MONSTER value: (3 units each)

Trump -605 in Iowa. (It opened yesterday something like -408 so best value already gone. That poll was complete quackery. I would bet it up to -900)
Trump -135 in Nevada. (Jon Ralston knows his shit and he's pretty much called it for Trump already)
Harris +184 in North Carolina (That asshat tranny-loving GOP guv candidate has a legit chance to cost him the entire state)

Solid value: (2 units each)

Trump popular vote +271
Trump +837 in Virginia
Trump to scoop NC/NV/AZ/GA: NO -139. (See above)
Record turnout YES -172

Thin value: (1 unit each)

Harris EC Winner +141
Trump +121 in Wisconsin
Trump +167 in Michigan
Harris scoops PA/WI/MI: YES +156
Trump wins all 7 battlegrounds: NO -501 (again this is mostly due to the NC situation)

Really not sure why the market has moved so heavily for Harris in Michigan in the last week. It was -110/-110 a few days ago.

Gonna be a VERY interesting day tomorrow.

Good luck to all who have wagered.

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Results:

Monster: 2-1, +3u
Solid: 1-3, -2.8u
Thin: 2-3, -4.54u

Total: 5-7, -4.34u

Not great.

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im still here fag. got something to say?


wtf you are laying 25/1 and 6/1 ? you called me a fish huh lol

why would anyone ever lay 25/1 on ANYTHING??


I GLANCED AT YOUR POST THEN RE-READ

okay you didnt lay 25/1

my bad

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Originally Posted by VaughnP

Betting markets have started trending back towards Trump. If you were planning on waiting for better odds, it seriously might not happen. Normally a convention bounce even for terrible candidates is a given, but with this clusterfuck it's not.

These polls from a couple weeks ago are from the most accurate pollster in 2020 - even they still had a liberal bias of around 2 points on average. The only ones that came even close were Trafalgar and the TIPP polls. Reading through the bias of the latest polls still has the math come out to the same thing as these - Trump is very likely polling ahead of her in the popular vote by somewhere around 1.5 points.

https://x.com/atlas_intel/status/1817307787761737763

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This was in August before they were even given any credit on X.

Guess who the most accurate pollster turned out to be again?

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

There has to be a lot of mathematically minded people now looking at the 81 million votes Joe got in 2020.

Trump got 72 mil this time, just 2 mil under his 2020 total.

Harris got 67 mil which is a whopping 14 mil under what Biden got in 2020.

The 81 mil is way out of whack. Biden broke the record at that time by like 15 mil votes. Where the hell did that many extra votes come from?

It’s a mystery for now. But I’m sure people will be trying to solve it.

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Yep they can rig it when they want to. Nobody liked Biden. Bernie was crushing him.

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Originally Posted by zealanddonk

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

There has to be a lot of mathematically minded people now looking at the 81 million votes Joe got in 2020.

Trump got 72 mil this time, just 2 mil under his 2020 total.

Harris got 67 mil which is a whopping 14 mil under what Biden got in 2020.

The 81 mil is way out of whack. Biden broke the record at that time by like 15 mil votes. Where the hell did that many extra votes come from?

It’s a mystery for now. But I’m sure people will be trying to solve it.

---

There isnt much of a mystery here.

in 2020 Biden voters were people were concerned about Trump, hated Covid and wanted a change.
This time around Covid is effectively gone, between 15-18 million* young people didnt vote, didnt like the idea of Harris, and werent as concerned about how things are going.


Harris did not engage younger voters particularly well, so they stayed home.
Tim Walz was a reasonable enough choice but didnt shine as such.

The Democrats needed to change horse much earier, in a clearer manner, pick someone who appeared younger than Walz and engage much better.


*From the initial information I have seen, this may change.

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The problem with your analysis is the under 30 vote fell out in record numbers in 2024. But they weren’t as keen on Harris as Biden. Biden won the under 30 crowd by 24 points, Harris just 13 points.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by zealanddonk

There isnt much of a mystery here.

in 2020 Biden voters were people were concerned about Trump, hated Covid and wanted a change.
This time around Covid is effectively gone, between 15-18 million* young people didnt vote, didnt like the idea of Harris, and werent as concerned about how things are going.


Harris did not engage younger voters particularly well, so they stayed home.
Tim Walz was a reasonable enough choice but didnt shine as such.

The Democrats needed to change horse much earier, in a clearer manner, pick someone who appeared younger than Walz and engage much better.


*From the initial information I have seen, this may change.

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The problem with your analysis is the under 30 vote fell out in record numbers in 2024. But they weren’t as keen on Harris as Biden. Biden won the under 30 crowd by 24 points, Harris just 13 points.

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What the fuck is hard to understand? I was literally relieved Trump won decisively so it could put the election lies nonsense to bed, but I keep seeing these wrong stats that are missing still to be counted millions of votes that will be added turned into the typical conspiracy shit.

You people can’t be happy with the win. You’re addicted to conspiracies. This election will far exceed 2016 which is more similar to this election. More than the percentage of added population over the last 8 years.

2020 when everyone was sitting around and mailed ballots was a unique one off. Look at each state and how many mailed ballots they had pre-election in 2020.

And when it’s all counted, it will still be a historically high election turnout this time by modern election standards. Far surpassing 2016. Yet no one says where did this extra 13 million Trump votes since 2016 come from? We are at 60% reported in Ca. 70% in Oregon and Az. 60% in Washington. There is still 7% out in NY state.

This is the rare election of late that’s been decided on election night with certainty, thus they aren’t burning the midnight oil counting. I thought you were a numbers guy? Look at the linear progression of election turnout by election and realize the one where everyone was sitting at home and facing a once in a lifetime pandemic and mailed ballots might be the reason for slightly higher turnout.

Besides being mailed ballots, think of all the impediments one might face during a normal year to voting. Get off work and have to deal with an hour commute and then stand in line for hours. If you aren't passionate, fuck that. Even people that were working like nurses and first responders could deal with no traffic and get to polls easily and face far less waits. There are dozens of logical reasons why that election was an outlier to normal pain of voting.

Take the win.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BCR

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

The problem with your analysis is the under 30 vote fell out in record numbers in 2024. But they weren’t as keen on Harris as Biden. Biden won the under 30 crowd by 24 points, Harris just 13 points.

---

What the fuck is hard to understand? I was literally relieved Trump won decisively so it could put the election lies nonsense to bed, but I keep seeing these wrong stats that are missing still to be counted millions of votes that will be added turned into the typical conspiracy shit.

You people can’t be happy with the win. You’re addicted to conspiracies. This election will far exceed 2016 which is more similar to this election. More than the percentage of added population over the last 8 years.

2020 when everyone was sitting around and mailed ballots was a unique one off. Look at each state and how many mailed ballots they had pre-election in 2020.

And when it’s all counted, it will still be a historically high election turnout this time by modern election standards. Far surpassing 2016. Yet no one says where did this extra 13 million Trump votes since 2016 come from? We are at 60% reported in Ca. 70% in Oregon and Az. 60% in Washington. There is still 7% out in NY state.

This is the rare election of late that’s been decided on election night with certainty, thus they aren’t burning the midnight oil counting. I thought you were a numbers guy? Look at the linear progression of election turnout by election and realize the one where everyone was sitting at home and facing a once in a lifetime pandemic and mailed ballots might be the reason for slightly higher turnout.

Besides being mailed ballots, think of all the impediments one might face during a normal year to voting. Get off work and have to deal with an hour commute and then stand in line for hours. If you aren't passionate, fuck that. Even people that were working like nurses and first responders could deal with no traffic and get to polls easily and face far less waits. There are dozens of logical reasons why that election was an outlier to normal pain of voting.

Take the win.

---

bro youre arguing with an actual retarded person, you realize that right? like i have nothing but respect for you but its going to be a tortuous 4 years for you if youre going to get frustrated when the dumbest goldfish in the bowl stubbornly refuses to do math.

Libbrains need to get that we will not rest until the 2020 ballot scam is exposed.

To bcr it’s spelled MORENO. ROFL.

To fattie, go get a snack, we will not rest.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by splitthis

Libbrains need to get that we will not rest until the 2020 ballot scam is exposed.

To bcr it’s spelled MORENO. ROFL.

To fattie, go get a snack, we will not rest.

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Greasy car salesmen. I have never met someone who owned a car dealership who wasn’t wholly corrupt. Truly the only result that bothered me, though it was predictable .

Quote:

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Originally Posted by sonatine

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BCR

What the fuck is hard to understand? I was literally relieved Trump won decisively so it could put the election lies nonsense to bed, but I keep seeing these wrong stats that are missing still to be counted millions of votes that will be added turned into the typical conspiracy shit.

You people can’t be happy with the win. You’re addicted to conspiracies. This election will far exceed 2016 which is more similar to this election. More than the percentage of added population over the last 8 years.

2020 when everyone was sitting around and mailed ballots was a unique one off. Look at each state and how many mailed ballots they had pre-election in 2020.

And when it’s all counted, it will still be a historically high election turnout this time by modern election standards. Far surpassing 2016. Yet no one says where did this extra 13 million Trump votes since 2016 come from? We are at 60% reported in Ca. 70% in Oregon and Az. 60% in Washington. There is still 7% out in NY state.

This is the rare election of late that’s been decided on election night with certainty, thus they aren’t burning the midnight oil counting. I thought you were a numbers guy? Look at the linear progression of election turnout by election and realize the one where everyone was sitting at home and facing a once in a lifetime pandemic and mailed ballots might be the reason for slightly higher turnout.

Besides being mailed ballots, think of all the impediments one might face during a normal year to voting. Get off work and have to deal with an hour commute and then stand in line for hours. If you aren't passionate, fuck that. Even people that were working like nurses and first responders could deal with no traffic and get to polls easily and face far less waits. There are dozens of logical reasons why that election was an outlier to normal pain of voting.

Take the win.

---

bro youre arguing with an actual retarded person, you realize that right? like i have nothing but respect for you but its going to be a tortuous 4 years for you if youre going to get frustrated when the dumbest goldfish in the bowl stubbornly refuses to do math.

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It’s no wonder you are a failed gambler, sonatard. You can’t do fucking math.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Quote:

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Originally Posted by sonatine

bro youre arguing with an actual retarded person, you realize that right? like i have nothing but respect for you but its going to be a tortuous 4 years for you if youre going to get frustrated when the dumbest goldfish in the bowl stubbornly refuses to do math.

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https://i.imgur.com/apJpIMo.jpeg

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https://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sh...ion-PnL-thread


please, show me your election results.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by sonatine

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

https://i.imgur.com/apJpIMo.jpeg

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https://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sh...ion-PnL-thread


please, show me your election results.

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Let’s pretend that the 14 million extra votes in 2020 were real people. Why would that large of a group, that thought it was absolutely imperative to beat Trump in 2020, not show in 2024?

Do you think it says anything about the way the country was run in the last four years? IT SPEAKS VOLUMES ABOUT THE WAY DEMOCRATS RAN THE COUNTRY.

Why was that group not mobilized? 14 million of your voters, if they really exist, just said “Hey, go fuck yourself?”

The democrat party let 14 million voters get away?

Those 14 million voters either don’t exist, or….the democrat party failed them so miserably that they stayed home. That’s a hell of a statement about your party, sonatard.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Quote:

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Originally Posted by sonatine

https://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sh...ion-PnL-thread


please, show me your election results.

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https://i.imgur.com/dCJ39lv.jpeg

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lol awwwwwwwl

Quote:

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Originally Posted by sonatine

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

https://i.imgur.com/dCJ39lv.jpeg

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lol awwwwwwwl

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I always know when you’re stuck like a pig.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Quote:

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Originally Posted by sonatine

lol awwwwwwwl

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I always know when you’re stuck like a pig.

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i literally just posted you my returns for election night gambling. please do the same if youre not too busy warning your sheriff cousin about the guy on the internet who is paying black trans junkie whores to have sex on your grave.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by big dick

Quote:

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Originally Posted by go_buccos

Results:

Monster: 2-1, +3u
Solid: 1-3, -2.8u
Thin: 2-3, -4.54u

Total: 5-7, -4.34u

Not great.

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im still here fag. got something to say?


wtf you are laying 25/1 and 6/1 ? you called me a fish huh lol

why would anyone ever lay 25/1 on ANYTHING??


I GLANCED AT YOUR POST THEN RE-READ

okay you didnt lay 25/1

my bad

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Did they settle yet? I mean it’s probably going to be lower but it doesn’t sound far off. I was expecting like 135, like 2016 +10. It’s going to be much higher than that.

Embedded Tweet

Embedded Tweet

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by sonatine

https://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sh...ion-PnL-thread


please, show me your election results.

---

Let’s pretend that the 14 million extra votes in 2020 were real people. Why would that large of a group, that thought it was absolutely imperative to beat Trump in 2020, not show in 2024?

Do you think it says anything about the way the country was run in the last four years? IT SPEAKS VOLUMES ABOUT THE WAY DEMOCRATS RAN THE COUNTRY.

Why was that group not mobilized? 14 million of your voters, if they really exist, just said “Hey, go fuck yourself?”

The democrat party let 14 million voters get away?

Those 14 million voters either don’t exist, or….the democrat party failed them so miserably that they stayed home. That’s a hell of a statement about your party, sonatard.

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Biden is President and we currently have the Senate

WHY THE FUCK WOULDNT THEY HAVE RIGGED THIS ONE TOO?

HOLY SHIT YOU GUYS ARE FUCKED UP IN THE HEAD


now i see how hitler came into power

they only had newspapers radio and word of mouth back then


we are fucked we are all fucked and you are the idiots that fucked ALL OF US

Quote:

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Originally Posted by sonatine

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

I always know when you’re stuck like a pig.

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i literally just posted you my returns for election night gambling. please do the same if youre not too busy warning your sheriff cousin about the guy on the internet who is paying black trans junkie whores to have sex on your grave.

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Do you file as a professional gambler?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BCR

Quote:

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Originally Posted by big dick

im still here fag. got something to say?


wtf you are laying 25/1 and 6/1 ? you called me a fish huh lol

why would anyone ever lay 25/1 on ANYTHING??


I GLANCED AT YOUR POST THEN RE-READ

okay you didnt lay 25/1

my bad

---

Did they settle yet? I mean it’s probably going to be lower but it doesn’t sound far off. I was expecting like 135, like 2016 +10. It’s going to be much higher than that.

Embedded Tweet

Embedded Tweet

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They haven't. I was just assuming a loss. Fishy wager for sure in hindsight.

EDIT: Also, fuck taking this long to count votes, and fuck whoever has a law saying ballots can arrive up until a week after election day and still be counted. With so much early voting available there is zero point zero reason for that.