**Official UFC thread**

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Originally Posted by sonatine

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Originally Posted by cmoney

I agree. I wish I waited but put 10k on Holm at +280. The lines seems to have gone up since then to 300s but is really all over the place depending on the sports book that is used.

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12/27/17 11:38pm $80.00 $1,085.60 Pending 12/30/17 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1037 Holm wins by TKO/KO +1357* vs Any other result


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That's a fun bet and I think there's a chance Holm wins this way. Nobody has a clue what kind of gas tank Cyborg has, we know Holms tank is great. I don't think Holm can win early by KO but I could see her running her male opponent into the ground and finishing her. I also think Cyborg will look to wrestle if she doesn't have early success on the feet and wresting is much more fatiguing than striking. Good luck with the bet.

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Originally Posted by peter mcneil

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Originally Posted by sonatine

12/27/17 11:38pm $80.00 $1,085.60 Pending 12/30/17 11:59pm MMA Props Fighting 1037 Holm wins by TKO/KO +1357* vs Any other result


ONE TIME

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That's a fun bet and I think there's a chance Holm wins this way. Nobody has a clue what kind of gas tank Cyborg has, we know Holms tank is great. I don't think Holm can win early by KO but I could see her running her male opponent into the ground and finishing her. I also think Cyborg will look to wrestle if she doesn't have early success on the feet and wresting is much more fatiguing than striking. Good luck with the bet.

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i hedged with cyborg rd 1 & rd2 (and holly by decision) because i think that the second cyborg gets lit up in an exchange, shes going to try to grapplefuck holly and pound her out, but i also think that with that much muscle mass and holly giving her the business while making cyborg chase her for the first 10 minutes, shes going to be fighting in slow motion for the last 3 rounds... holly could easily create an opportunity to crocop her.

whats more, holly is one of those fighters who rises to occasions. she looked better against honda than she ever did before by something like a factor of 3, and against every opponent since she has looked underwhelming, and im including the 23 minutes she spent barely squeaking out rounds against tate.

gonna be a fun sweat in any case, glad i got on that line early.

I've written and erased posts pro-holm and anti-holm in the last day. I don't know what to believe anymore. Putting down a small amount just because betting any ≥ +300 fighter seems like a must, but how about Edson Barbosa hanging out at +250? Sure he's probably fucked if it stays on the ground, but Khabib is far from careful on his feet, has bad knees, has been pretty inactive for the last bunch of years. Seems like a whole lot can go wrong.

Other than Carla Esparza, I think every dog on the card is very live, and she probably is too at that price.

there was a time when i believed in barbosa but he peaked, point blank, and even tho the potential is there for him wheel kick nurmy's forhead off his face, the advantage nurm has with his ground game is so grossly lopsided that i cant fuck with barbosa here for less than +425. its just not an exploitable line otherwise. nurm has so much fucking power from top position that there is no 'riding it out' no matter how dark your belt is.

Crowe I agree on Holm. If it's an even money bet I'm taking Cyborg. I think she probably wins but I also think it's a very good fight and if they fight 10 times Cyborg wins 6 or 7. Holm is a seasoned tactician on the feet and Cyborg is off the juice, while she's still gross she isn't the muscular beast she once was.

I don't like Barboza vs Khabib at all. Barboza can break and nobody is better at breaking someone than Khabib. Khabib is wreckless standing but I actually think that makes him less likely to get hit vs Barboza than more. Barboza strikes so well with range where he can set his kicks up, Khabib is going to spend very little time there. He's going to be in Barbozas face often. Remember how A Silva's striking looked vs Sonnen? That's what I see happens here

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Originally Posted by sonatine

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Originally Posted by peter mcneil

That's a fun bet and I think there's a chance Holm wins this way. Nobody has a clue what kind of gas tank Cyborg has, we know Holms tank is great. I don't think Holm can win early by KO but I could see her running her male opponent into the ground and finishing her. I also think Cyborg will look to wrestle if she doesn't have early success on the feet and wresting is much more fatiguing than striking. Good luck with the bet.

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i hedged with cyborg rd 1 & rd2 (and holly by decision) because i think that the second cyborg gets lit up in an exchange, shes going to try to grapplefuck holly and pound her out, but i also think that with that much muscle mass and holly giving her the business while making cyborg chase her for the first 10 minutes, shes going to be fighting in slow motion for the last 3 rounds... holly could easily create an opportunity to crocop her.

whats more, holly is one of those fighters who rises to occasions. she looked better against honda than she ever did before by something like a factor of 3, and against every opponent since she has looked underwhelming, and im including the 23 minutes she spent barely squeaking out rounds against tate.

gonna be a fun sweat in any case, glad i got on that line early.

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My initial thoughts on this fight was that Cyborg overwhelms and destroys Holm. Yet when I think about this match-up I see plenty to like about Holm.

Holm is a southpaw and Cyborg is a little one dimensional with her right hand, makes it harder for Cyborg to unload with her right hook which I think is her main weapon.
Plus she is a pretty decent counter puncher, so much better against an aggressive fighter like Cyborg.

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Originally Posted by sonatine

there was a time when i believed in barbosa but he peaked, point blank, and even tho the potential is there for him wheel kick nurmy's forhead off his face, the advantage nurm has with his ground game is so grossly lopsided that i cant fuck with barbosa here for less than +425. its just not an exploitable line otherwise. nurm has so much fucking power from top position that there is no 'riding it out' no matter how dark your belt is.

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There's always a that tiny chance Barboza kicks Khabib's head off but I agree with you on these odds and would need something like +400 to even entertain the thought.

Hell, I'd probably need Barboza by KO/TKO at +600 or greater in this spot.

You people are nuts. Brazilians are finished. If you want free money just bet on Khabib. If you want to get cute and bet props sure, but your lighting your money on fire if you take Barboza for even 1 dollar

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Originally Posted by OSA

You people are nuts. Brazilians are finished. If you want free money just bet on Khabib. If you want to get cute and bet props sure, but your lighting your money on fire if you take Barboza for even 1 dollar

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Cool story, considering I haven't read one person saying they were outright betting on him, let alone, multiple people.

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Originally Posted by Hockey Guy

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Originally Posted by OSA

You people are nuts. Brazilians are finished. If you want free money just bet on Khabib. If you want to get cute and bet props sure, but your lighting your money on fire if you take Barboza for even 1 dollar

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Cool story, considering I haven't read one person saying they were outright betting on him, let alone, multiple people.

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That's cause no one can even point to where Dagestan is on a map let alone what people go through there to survive.

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Originally Posted by OSA

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Originally Posted by Hockey Guy

Cool story, considering I haven't read one person saying they were outright betting on him, let alone, multiple people.

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That's cause no one can even point to where Dagestan is on a map let alone what people go through there to survive.

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Cool response.

Fucking Michael Johnson had Khabib rocked , so him cripwalking all over Barboza Im not so sure.
Also has Holly ever looked really good apart from the Rhonda fight?

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Originally Posted by adamantium

Fucking Michael Johnson had Khabib rocked , so him cripwalking all over Barboza Im not so sure.
Also has Holly ever looked really good apart from the Rhonda fight?

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She's never "looked good".

I was at the bar the other night and a friend of mine who's gf was also sitting there he says to her "I can't wait for UFC this weekend when that hottie on the right (Holm) fights Cyborg were on. He called her hot a few times and finally I looked over at him saying no man she is a real mutt. Even beating down Rousey who charged in like a fool Holm still is a mutt.

You can bet Cyborg studied the Holm/Rousey fight and laughed at the approach Rousey brought knowing she isn't going to blindly charge in with her guard down like Ronda did.

You people realize khabib has never even lost a single round in his career. Do you know how amazing that is.

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Originally Posted by BeerAndPoker

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Originally Posted by adamantium

Fucking Michael Johnson had Khabib rocked , so him cripwalking all over Barboza Im not so sure.
Also has Holly ever looked really good apart from the Rhonda fight?

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She's never "looked good".

I was at the bar the other night and a friend of mine who's gf was also sitting there he says to her "I can't wait for UFC this weekend when that hottie on the right (Holm) fights Cyborg were on. He called her hot a few times and finally I looked over at him saying no man she is a real mutt. Even beating down Rousey who charged in like a fool Holm still is a mutt.

You can bet Cyborg studied the Holm/Rousey fight and laughed at the approach Rousey brought knowing she isn't going to blindly charge in with her guard down like Ronda did.

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Cyborg also has lunchbox size hands and is basically a dude but seriously, Holly's MT background and Cyborg's lack of steroids opens the door for a potential upset.

Accent on word upset.

Let's not forget that Holly was training at Jackson Wink for a Ronda fight for YEARS before she got her shot. They started gameplanning while Ronda was still in strikeforce, after the Tate fight. Think about that for a minute. Holly was at Legacy Fights, and she was clearly on a path for the UFC, and a ton of what she did every day in training was train for Ronda, and Ronda never changed even an iota of her style in the meantime. Cyborg, now, is a much better fighter than she used to be. She's not super-aggressive like a lot of people seem to think, she stalks and conserves energy and rarely gets out of line in any way any more.

I don't see Holly hurting Cyborg in any way, but that doesn't mean she can't win a low-output decision. This might be a terribly boring fight, wouldn't surprise me at all.

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Originally Posted by Erin Micunt

You people realize khabib has never even lost a single round in his career. Do you know how amazing that is.

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I very much think that's amazing, but I also thought it was amazing when Lyoto Machida had the same stat, and he did it against a more impressive list of fighters. That shit don't last forever.

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Originally Posted by Crowe Diddly

Ronda never changed even an iota of her style in the meantime.

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wait what?

you made some perfectly reasonable points but ronda literally tard-morphed into a striker out of nowhere because WMMA = lol why not.

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Originally Posted by sonatine

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Originally Posted by Crowe Diddly

Ronda never changed even an iota of her style in the meantime.

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wait what?

you made some perfectly reasonable points but ronda literally tard-morphed into a striker out of nowhere because WMMA = lol why not.

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I phrased that badly. Yes of course she thought she was an ace striker all of a sudden, but her bull-rush approach didn't change in the least. She charged right at holly the same way she did every other opponent in her career (save maybe one of the miesha fights), whether she was looking to punch or clinch. Whether she was grappling or striking, she came straight in with her head right on the center line.

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Originally Posted by adamantium

Fucking Michael Johnson had Khabib rocked , so him cripwalking all over Barboza Im not so sure.
Also has Holly ever looked really good apart from the Rhonda fight?

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Wouldn't this make you even more confident in Khabib? Everyone gets hit in MMA and Johnson has fucking great hands and is a strong wrestler, Khabib took his best shots and still crushed him.

not that i expect anyone to get paid off it but apparently a good chunk of money is going in on holly.