What a brutal finish.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
This ones going to sting. We deserve this one but the gambling gods don't seem to want us to Have nice things.Quote:
Originally Posted by hongkonger
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What a brutal finish.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyThis ones going to sting. We deserve this one but the gambling gods don't seem to want us to Have nice things.Quote:
Originally Posted by hongkonger
Shitty - should have had the sweep.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
I do like the under 52.5 in the Wisconsin game tonight.3
Pretty much God at this point:
Brock Osweiler cut as Browns move on from disappointing QB
http://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/...cid=spartandhp
Druff/San - hope you listened to our father.
LOL ClevelandQuote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
How much guaranteed money has Osweiler pocketed from his brief, unspectacular stints in Denver, Houston and Cleveland? More than most of us will ever make in a lifetime, I suppose.
So like I said. A dominant team will play in Wisconsin tonight and not let the other team score.
keep an eye on some MLB spots, fade Detroit, I loaded up today and will tmr. v Indians. Detroit dumped and vs a v strong team, lock. edit, -310... NM yikes. Houston at home against the Mets looks like a great bet. Emotional Houston back against the v weak Mets. Houston pitchers better in each game. lock.
tampa on the road looks good against WS. fade sox and archer obv a better pitcher. Minn at home , better team and better pitcher.
ok time to make some MLB $ after a crappy season overall.
Alabama -7 is a lock.
I gotta load up a lil deposit soon for NFL.
Games start in 2 hours. Who's got some locks for me today?
Ty Johnson (Maryland) under 69.5 and 111.5 r&r
Oh my......
What an utter fucking disaster today's football has been.
plenty of weeks left to go...plus there's always that Hawaii day saver at midnight east coast time tonight...Quote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
Good luck.... that said...Quote:
Originally Posted by MintjewlipsOh my......
1/ Per @TheMirageLV Scott Shelton on ALA-FLAST: "We're gonna get face kicked in" if Bama wins and covers. Biggest liability at -7. @Covers
Sharpest guy I know says Bo Scarborough under 77.5
I don't love it but he runs 80% with these
brock re-signs with the broncos...
:lol2
:hof2
If any of you guys see a story on what happened to the line in the Marshall vs Miami OH game I'd love to read it. Was happy to be holding a Marshall -1 ticket when it hit -3, was shocked when it was +3.5 at kickoff.
got to be a story there.
FSU trying their best to screw over Vegas.
I hate going with the public but Bama -7 was too good for me to pass up.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
FSU really falling apart and Louisville is having their hands full with Purdue.
Fact - today was my worst day betting on sports in 5 years.
Sucks, but there will always be bad days.
Never fear my man, same as poker you have to grind it long term.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Fact: Daly is GOD
shocking vegas got stuffed in week 1...oh well, looking forward to the next time they post that they need a certain side to win...they don't make it a habit of this kinda shit happening to them over the course of a season...
I bet 2 ncaaf games today, both underdogs. They scored a combined total of 0 points.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyFree free to tell me to fuck off if you like, not trying to break balls here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Serial Fail
There were lots of folks, even on the inside of the team, who thought there were better off with Mangum under center last year. So while you are correct to say they are replacing the QB this year im not so sure he is a downgrade from Hill. Williams was a beast last year but when he was hurt Canada stepped in just fine. Point taken though Williams was a beast.
I think Wisconsin and LSU are the two teams on the schedule that I say are a definite L. I think Boise at home is a W this year and Steele agrees. I look at it as a bet on the Utah and Miss St games.
I got them 10-3 with a win vs a Rebuilding Utah team and a loss vs Miss St but Vargas only has State winning 5 games next year so maybe not.
I told you that Mangum sucks.
Fair. Let's see how BYU looks in a few weeks.Quote:
Originally Posted by Serial FailQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
I told you that Mangum sucks.
Omg please tell me im not the only one who thinks Clemson- 6 1/2 is a steal?
Take Clemson -6 1/2, Ohio State -7 now! They will not be cheap for long.
Fuck it im making it a 2 teamer, i love early ncaa lines, like fish n a barrel.
fired on the dolphins under 7.5...probably should fire on the bucs under as well under the same premise, but chickening out at this moment...
16 straight weeks without a bye...good luck with that one...
Clemson moving the wrong way for you.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mintjewlips
They are already off my book.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
if you have any money on a poker site that is American in name they still have it up...Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendThey are already off my book.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
MIA U 7.5 -114
TB U 8.5 -120
think my logic is probably good on this one, but don't know if it makes it a good bet...figure if some books are pulling the bet off the board it can't be totally terrible...
Clemson +300 to win the ACC
I have seen enough. Made a big bet on Utah +1.5 on Monday. I see the line is Utah -1 now, so looks like plenty of other people have seen enough too.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyFair. Let's see how BYU looks in a few weeks.Quote:
Originally Posted by Serial Fail
Also, I see the O/U for Ok St vs S Alabama on Friday is only 66.5. Seems real low given how much both these teams scored last week. Like that one a lot.
thanks for pointing this one out...Okie state is almost in the texas tech realm for no fucking D...just hoping south Alabama has enough to score 17-20...Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaardI have seen enough. Made a big bet on Utah +1.5 on Monday. I see the line is Utah -1 now, so looks like plenty of other people have seen enough too.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Also, I see the O/U for Ok St vs S Alabama on Friday is only 66.5. Seems real low given how much both these teams scored last week. Like that one a lot.
Okie St held Tulsa to only 24 which is actually kinda low for Tulsa because Tulsa plays a spread hurry up and traditionally scores A LOT of points, although they had a new QB last week so maybe that would explain their low output and it isn't indicative of Okie St having a tough D this year. I didn't see 1 second of the game, but S Alabama scored 27 on Ole Miss which theoretically should have a relatively strong D being in the SEC. Either way it seems like Ok St should be in the 50s range and S Alabama in the 20-30s range, which equals an easy over.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenisthanks for pointing this one out...Okie state is almost in the texas tech realm for no fucking D...just hoping south Alabama has enough to score 17-20...Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaard
yeah I think Tulsa has lost a lot of their bigtime guys that they had at QB/WR/RB...they were fantasy darlings with dane evans chucking it and lucas/garret/Atkinson catching it...cant imagine much has changed with okie state on D...don't think they've been able to play a lick of D in a few years (if not more now)...Quote:
Originally Posted by verminaardOkie St held Tulsa to only 24 which is actually kinda low for Tulsa because Tulsa plays a spread hurry up and traditionally scores A LOT of points, although they had a new QB last week so maybe that would explain their low output and it isn't indicative of Okie St having a tough D this year. I didn't see 1 second of the game, but S Alabama scored 27 on Ole Miss which theoretically should have a relatively strong D being in the SEC. Either way it seems like Ok St should be in the 50s range and S Alabama in the 20-30s range, which equals an easy over.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
good to know about SALA...was a little worried that losing Everett might hurt their offense a little...but if they scored that much on ole miss if they show up against OKIEST then they should be able to get 2-3 TDs...
definitely a curiously low line...I fired on the TLSA/OKIEST over and it looked like it was gonna be easily over in the first half and then the scoring slowed to a crawl, but they still went over 80 if my memory is correct (59-24?)...
Even better, i wont be surprised if clemson wins by 21, for sure they win by 7.Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendClemson moving the wrong way for you.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mintjewlips
Clemson v Auburn will be a shootout, it will come down to turnovers.
The Ohio state Defense will hold against Oklahoma, Oklahoma maybe scores 17, but Ohio States offence will be too much for Oklahomas defense. Oklahoma shit the bed when they got rid of the Stoops, bad decision imo.
Nice lock for friday, Oklahoma State -28 1/2.
Props based on Historical performance and FFBL data (projects both public & private). I started doing this last yr after working with one of the best college prop guys out there (he’s on this site) and learning what he was doing. I’ll be posting these after I take them and share with some others. Last yr my sample size was 132 plays over 10 weeks (including playoffs) for a win ratio of 58.5% (hoping not variance but probably). I use historical stats + FFBL data to determine if something is playable. The results can be a bit odd sometimes as it will usually weigh heavily on overs or unders depending on the opponent’s historical defense. There are plenty of plays I would like to be on the under or over for but because sharps already knocked the line down so much before I get to it they become a NoPlay.
Plays are weighted as Small (1unit) /Med (2 unit) /Large (3 unit) and I am allocating 150units towards this (with no BR management obv) and will keep track of my record on here as best as I can. Anything I don’t post won’t count towards my record and if I end up losing at a horrible rate I’ll just stop. I also really try to avoid anything over -150 as much as possible and a price over that amount is usually downgraded (ex: Large to a Mid-Large or Mid). Goodluck and flame away.
6 -plays that if I had an SB or Bodog account I would have played the unders but sharps destroyed them before my book posted them.
3 -No plays given the lines were IMO perfect.
9- overs cuz I’m a fish…. (1 would have been an under but early money made it an over, can you guess?)
2- INT props, I love the brady one but the price is being destroyed and the Alex Smith one is a small because of the FFBL stats (historical data said either NP or No INT)
22units to win 17:
PS: If Daly or other prop players post their plays I’m almost sure they’ll be on the opposite of a lot (Some?) of these, but I believe that has to with me factoring in the FFBL projections on top of historical data. Again do not follow unless you agree, could end up as a 80% loser…..