He was calling Druffs mom and harassing herQuote:
Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak
Obviously I missed it. Why was Tyde permabanned? And what’s the over/under on how long until he is unbanned?Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
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He was calling Druffs mom and harassing herQuote:
Originally Posted by Walter SobchakObviously I missed it. Why was Tyde permabanned? And what’s the over/under on how long until he is unbanned?Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
:cosbyQuote:
Originally Posted by RichardBrodiesCombover.He was calling Druffs mom and harassing herQuote:
Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak
He fell off the wagon after about a year of sobriety. It happens, I have been lobbying for a second chance for him.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak:cosbyQuote:
Originally Posted by RichardBrodiesCombover.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgullHe fell off the wagon after about a year of sobriety. It happens, I have been lobbying for a ninth chance for him.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak
https://x.com/tomselliott/status/1853218979088662623
The only thing she does know is the talking point she was ordered to memorize. One has to wonder if she had anything to do with this poll at all outside of almost surely being paid in someway to attach her name to it.
Seeing so many 270-268 maps on my feed. It's probably the result I'd most like to see because it'd be the most dramatic and tilt-inducing for the country. You'd also see major pressure for Nebraska to change their electoral award system in the future. Though if they did that there's prob some game theory result where Maine changes theirs too.
https://x.com/peterwildeford/status/1853276085284180141
Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
I have a you make it 270towin map thread. The 270-268 is Harris path to victory. No surprises, sweeps the wall.
I think its her only path.
Thing is this isnt like a traditional sports parlay where winning the three states is -900….. the three are heavily correlated it makes it a possible outcome. I wouldn't say likely, but certainly possible.
It's about +1200 actually. $78 to win $1k if you'd likeQuote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
I have a you make it 270towin map thread. The 270-268 is Harris path to victory. No surprises, sweeps the wall.
I think its her only path.
Thing is this isnt like a traditional sports parlay where winning the three states is -900….. the three are heavily correlated it makes it a possible outcome. I wouldn't say likely, but certainly possible.
https://polymarket.com/event/kamala-...=1730696410522
Exactly 270 with exactly that combination of states should be higher, at least +2000.Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOLIt's about +1200 actually. $78 to win $1k if you'd likeQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
https://polymarket.com/event/kamala-...=1730696410522
I agree. Actually I just looked and oddly you can get Dems to win by 0-4 ECs for a little cheaper, 7 cents. So there's no reason to bet that market.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter SobchakExactly 270 with exactly that combination of states should be higher, at least +2000.Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
https://polymarket.com/event/elector...=1730700344136
Personally my biggest lotto is Dems to win by 35-64 ECs at 7 cents. I'll take the extra 25 EC spread for the same price, thanks. $1200 to win $17k
That last bet is a very good bet.Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOLI agree. Actually I just looked and oddly you can get Dems to win by 0-4 ECs for a little cheaper, 7 cents. So there's no reason to bet that market.Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak
https://polymarket.com/event/elector...=1730700344136
Personally my biggest lotto is Dems to win by 35-64 ECs at 7 cents. I'll take the extra 25 EC spread for the same price, thanks. $1200 to win $17k
Spot on. A 3rd party did this poll and she simply attached her name to it, maybe because of a payday, maybe advanced TDS, maybe both. Like I said this reminds me of the ABC poll the week before the 2020 election showing Bide up in WI by 17.Quote:
Originally Posted by VaughnP
Ann needs to explain how after the debate Trump was up 19 in her own poll over Biden. Probably the same polling firm who wanted Biden out of the race.
This guy nailed it before Ann's poll came out.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
So here is where Im at.
5% chance we have nation wide polling errors which produce an unexpected outcome or 3 three.
Expected outcome = Az, Nc, Ge for Trump….. and at this point Im conceding Mi to Harris as she is now upwards of -200 to win Mi.
Nevada and its 6 votes are probably going to be electorally useless.
25% chance Wi breaks for Trump and gives him the election win with 272/278 votes. Harris is currently -150 there.
70% chance the entire election all comes down to Pa.
Trump is currently -135/+125 in Pa. By my projection it is very very likely it will decide everything.
5% systemic polling error feels low, but you are better at this shit than me. It's strange how I have felt the same ever since the two debates. Hers put her in the game, and JD's shifted it back a little, but to me, it has always came down to did the pollsters over adjust to being so off in 2016 and 2020 or not? Who is up 1 this week or 2 the next is irrelevant. I still think Trump on the ballot is just a different beast than anything else. The Trump people I know who are die hards couldn't name their mayor or senator, but they will be there on Tuesday 100%.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
So here is where Im at.
5% chance we have nation wide polling errors which produce an unexpected outcome or 3 three.
Expected outcome = Az, Nc, Ge for Trump….. and at this point Im conceding Mi to Harris as she is now upwards of -200 to win Mi.
Nevada and its 6 votes are probably going to be electorally useless.
25% chance Wi breaks for Trump and gives him the election win with 272/278 votes. Harris is currently -150 there.
70% chance the entire election all comes down to Pa.
Trump is currently -135/+125 in Pa. By my projection it is very very likely it will decide everything.
This one strikes me as tricky even to books. When they react that large to a Selzer poll, it tells me they don't have some insider crystal ball on this one either. Either Selzer is right and an army of old ladies are deeply offended their granddaughters have less rights than they did or she caught a weird set. I don't believe she is corrupt as she has faced the scorn of liberals before, but she is 68 and who knows? Maybe a $5 million payout for retirement was worth her stellar record. Almost everyone will sell out for the right number.
I have felt for the longest time it's Trump 65/35, but I am captive to what surrounds me like anyone, and what surrounds me isn't 65 year old women.
I will think Trump has it in the bag and then see a poll where abortion and the economy are dead ass tied for biggest issue in a Wisconsin or PA poll and think wtf? Really? Abortion ruling has been bigger than I expected when it came down, but top issue? Not all who answer it as top issue are Dems. Its super important to evangelicals also, but top issue for anyone seems crazy.
I don't know if I'd say landslide, but still think one wins comfortably. I will be shocked if the polls are this dead on. As someone who doesn't care all that much, its like a game I haven't bet on where I hope it's chaos and close and fun, but usually when I want a close game it's 42-3 in the third and I am watching netflix.
Yesterday in passing I said to my wife, “Well, it’s 2 days til the election”.
She surprised my a bit by sheepishly saying, “I think I lean Harris”.
We never discuss politics. I have been married longer than you and I know a few things.
I have not asked my kids. I NEVER discuss politics with friends the past decade. It’s funny but there is an unspoken understanding that it’s inappropriate. We will discuss sex and marriage and such but politics is too private. It’s unattractive. In a state where our presidential votes don’t matter it’s unproductive too.
The wife fills her thoughts with friends, family, travel and Hallmark. I suspect she is neurotypical for her age group politically. Nobody is gonna poll her.
But empty nest women have time. She isn’t running around picking up kids from practice, making dinner and getting ready for work. She has time to vote.
I don’t do Facebook and social media. I divorced cable. I got so little use for the political podcast industry. Clarity is my gift.
PFA fills a useful role as the characters here are a known quantity.
I had to laugh at Nate Silver. He has to hate what an enigma Trump is as a candidate worse than anyone. Trying to figure out Trump voters way harder than baseball.
He was the unassailable boy genius in 2012. Now after a straight week of railing against national polls herding results and how it can’t be +1 in everything, his paid for final projection is 50.4 Trump-49.2 Harris.
And I’m sure he’s great and will return to form, but I had to giggle at that projection after decrying all the poll hedging going on.
2012. Did people have smart phones then?Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Nate Silver is Billy Beane. Little Bill James perhaps. He was ahead of the political polling curve when people were still using stone tools.
He is from yesteryear. He does have a knack for the business side. No one has reaped more financial reward from polling than he has. He knows how to play the game.
He has a brand and he isn’t looking to clock wins
I agree, calling it 50-50 is not what you pay him for. I mean FFS take a stand one way or the other. Take your position and live with it.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Is this percentage chance to win, or percentage of the popular vote?Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Because (1) the two of them together will not total 99.6% of the popular vote and (2) zero point zero chance Trump gets 50% of the popular vote.
I personally don’t pay attention to Silver.
https://centerforpolitics.org/crysta...-2024-ratings/
Look, these guys say Harris will win. It must be true!
:lol2
Quote:
Originally Posted by Walter Sobchak
Frankly its the exact same thing i wrote a page ago.
The above update was from 10/17.Quote:
Originally Posted by go_buccosAbove were the opening Pinny odds on 9/12/2024 for each battleground state. Current Pinny odds below:Quote:
Originally Posted by go_buccos
EC Winner: Trump -177, Harris +150
Arizona: Trump -260
Florida: Trump -1870
Georgia: Trump -243
Maine: OFF
Michigan TIE -110
Nevada: Harris -115
New Hampshire: Harris -700
North Carolina: Trump -208
PA: Trump -143
Texas: Trump -2225
Virginia: Harris -680
Wisconsin: Trump -123
Popular vote winner: (just added) Harris -252
11/4 Pinny update/comparison as of 6:30 PM CST:
EC Winner: Trump -162/Harris +141
Popular Vote: Trump +271/Harris -326
Arizona: Trump -339
Florida: Trump -2500
Georgia: Trump -211
Iowa: (just added) Trump -605
Michigan: Harris -205
Nevada: Trump -135
New Hampshire: Harris -534
North Carolina: Trump -226
Pennsylvania: Trump -131
Virginia: Harris -1206
Wisconsin: Harris -147
Some other markets just added:
Democrat total states won: 21.5 O -162
Republican total states won: 29.5 U -194
Trump wins BOTH MI and PA: +245
Trump wins BOTH MI and WI: +259
Harris scoops Rust Belt: (PA/MI/WI) +156
Trump scoops AZ/NV/NC/GA: +115
Trump scoops all 7 battlegrounds: +386
Harris OVER 51.999% popular vote: +150
Record turnout according to uselectionatlas.org: YES -172
County markets:
Bucks, PA: Harris -228
Clark, NV (Vegas) OFF
Erie, PA: Trump -142
Kent, MI: (Grand Rapids) Harris -230
Macomb, MI: (Detroit burbs) OFF
Maricopa, AZ: (Phoenix) Harris -121
Pinellas, FL: (Tampa Bay) Trump -331
Values as I see them at these prices:
MONSTER value: (3 units each)
Trump -605 in Iowa. (It opened yesterday something like -408 so best value already gone. That poll was complete quackery. I would bet it up to -900)
Trump -135 in Nevada. (Jon Ralston knows his shit and he's pretty much called it for Trump already)
Harris +184 in North Carolina (That asshat tranny-loving GOP guv candidate has a legit chance to cost him the entire state)
Solid value: (2 units each)
Trump popular vote +271
Trump +837 in Virginia
Trump to scoop NC/NV/AZ/GA: NO -139. (See above)
Record turnout YES -172
Thin value: (1 unit each)
Harris EC Winner +141
Trump +121 in Wisconsin
Trump +167 in Michigan
Harris scoops PA/WI/MI: YES +156
Trump wins all 7 battlegrounds: NO -501 (again this is mostly due to the NC situation)
Really not sure why the market has moved so heavily for Harris in Michigan in the last week. It was -110/-110 a few days ago.
Gonna be a VERY interesting day tomorrow.
Good luck to all who have wagered.
Largest holdings all green going in to election morning. Hopefully not a sea of red in the evening.
https://polymarket.com/profile/0x593...d94Cc24408FE84
https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1853673781350260902
Couldn't be any closer, according to Nate.
I think if anybody says they know who's going to win the election, you can disregard their opinion.
im very excite
6 votes have officially been counted in the presidential race. Tied 3 to 3. How poetic.
https://x.com/Politics_Polls/status/1853666986489688198
Given you are in the green everywhere, are you tempted to bank the 3k plus since it's a flip? Just like the sweat and figure you can maneuver out at the right time?Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
The election might be a flip, but that doesn't mean my bets are. Most of my money is on the popular vote which I think is very unlikely to lose (but of course, still possible). And I still think is undervalued (though not as badly as before).Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRGiven you are in the green everywhere, are you tempted to bank the 3k plus since it's a flip? Just like the sweat and figure you can maneuver out at the right time?Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
Also, I like to gamble. Presidential elections are the most beautiful thing in the world to bet on.
This swinging back the other way is only because of all of that data that doesn't exist.
Again, this is probably an omen. I can't say it enough, Trump was running against a much, much stronger candidate in 2016 and lost New Hampshire by 2k votes. This was RFK jr's best state. New Hampshire is also per capita the most Libertarian place in the United States - the NH Libertarian party endorsed Trump tonight. I know Libertarians, have voted mostly Libertarian since I was a teenager. A realistic outcome is that Trump gets to 270 before even bringing the blue wall states into question. The attacks on free speech, threats of war etc. is enough to push the most ardent Libertarian into holding their nose and voting Trump.Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
:lol4Quote:
Originally Posted by VaughnPAgain, this is probably an omen. I can't say it enough, Trump was running against a much, much stronger candidate in 2016 and lost New Hampshire by 2k votes. This was RFK jr's best state. New Hampshire is also per capita the most Libertarian place in the United States - the NH Libertarian party endorsed Trump tonight. I know Libertarians, have voted mostly Libertarian since I was a teenager. A realistic outcome is that Trump gets to 270 before even bringing the blue wall states into question. The attacks on free speech, threats of war etc. is enough to push the most ardent Libertarian into holding their nose and voting Trump.Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
To whom it may concern. Nevada
https://x.com/LanceupperPI/status/1853523066703556789
Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
Famous lst words but there weren't too many electoral maps where Nevada mattered
2016 was before the abortion rulingQuote:
Originally Posted by VaughnPAgain, this is probably an omen. I can't say it enough, Trump was running against a much, much stronger candidate in 2016 and lost New Hampshire by 2k votes. This was RFK jr's best state. New Hampshire is also per capita the most Libertarian place in the United States - the NH Libertarian party endorsed Trump tonight. I know Libertarians, have voted mostly Libertarian since I was a teenager. A realistic outcome is that Trump gets to 270 before even bringing the blue wall states into question. The attacks on free speech, threats of war etc. is enough to push the most ardent Libertarian into holding their nose and voting Trump.Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
There's a lot of really sad, best for business type of predictions coming out from these so called experts, including hack Nate tinfoil. There have been people for months predicting he would end at 50/50. And of course that was what happened with an ever so slight edge given to the preferred candidate of the few people dumb enough to pay for his content. His model is of course biased, and the one thing you can take away from it is that Trump's odds are certainly underestimated by it.
I lost a lot of respect for Nate. He herded to 50-50 so he will not get hurt. He was an outlier in 2016 saying Trump has a good chance to win. Obviously, in 2024 they got to him.Quote:
Originally Posted by VaughnP
All 6 voters there are Registered Republicans and all voted for Nikki Haley in the primary. The state might be heavily Libertarian, but I don’t see too many Libertarians voting for Nikki Haley.Quote:
Originally Posted by VaughnPAgain, this is probably an omen. I can't say it enough, Trump was running against a much, much stronger candidate in 2016 and lost New Hampshire by 2k votes. This was RFK jr's best state. New Hampshire is also per capita the most Libertarian place in the United States - the NH Libertarian party endorsed Trump tonight. I know Libertarians, have voted mostly Libertarian since I was a teenager. A realistic outcome is that Trump gets to 270 before even bringing the blue wall states into question. The attacks on free speech, threats of war etc. is enough to push the most ardent Libertarian into holding their nose and voting Trump.Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL