My first two reactions to the above are....
1. I got to remember to plug my phone in at night.
2. I'm going to have to look for ways to tease up Carolina to +7.5 vs NE.
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My first two reactions to the above are....
1. I got to remember to plug my phone in at night.
2. I'm going to have to look for ways to tease up Carolina to +7.5 vs NE.
This is a puff piece for the casino industry. They love stories like this, because they encourage gamblers to take their shot for this "free money" on largely -EV bets.Quote:
Originally Posted by JimmyG_415
The day of the +EV NFL teaser is over. It's sad, because I did very well with these, though I jumped on board in just the final few years it was viable.
NFL teasers are only a decent bet if the 6-point tease crosses the line of 3 AND 7 points (since these are the most common NFL score differences). So if you tease from -8 to -2, that's great. If you tease from +1.5 to +7.5, that's also great. If you tease from +8 to +14, that's a bad tease. If you tease from -16 to -10, again that's bad. If you tease from -3 to +3, that's also not good, though not quite as bad as the other two examples I just gave.
Secondary factors for teasing call for preferring to tease home favorites or road dogs (but within the parameters described above), avoiding teasing games with high totals, and avoiding teasing teams which tend to get blown out often.
But then there's the payouts. You need +180 for 3-teamers, +100 for 2-teamers, and +300 for 4-teamers. If you don't get those payouts (and you can't find this anymore at reputable books), then you're still -EV, even you tease-select perfectly.
Most people teasing NFL teams have no clue what they're doing, and this is a HUGE edge for the casino.
This piece is promoting that people who teased the games -- even the clueless ones -- beat Vegas for a lot of money. That's a fluke. They are not going to eliminate this lucrative bet for the casino, though.
Your post is accurate but this line isn't strictly true. There are opportunities to beat teasers outside of basic strategy. Some examples include -6.5s, preseason totals and opposite side of teaser-protected lines. Fixed-price teaser cards as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
It still comes down to getting good prices which you won't find in today's offshore post-up accounts, and sure as fuck not in Las Vegas.
Quote:
Originally Posted by IAmProfessionalTalkYour post is accurate but this line isn't strictly true. There are opportunities to beat teasers outside of basic strategy. Some examples include -6.5s, preseason totals and opposite side of teaser-protected lines. Fixed-price teaser cards as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
It still comes down to getting good prices which you won't find in today's offshore post-up accounts, and sure as fuck not in Las Vegas.
Also known as "Wong teasers".
For those of you with NFL draft props...
Shaq is lined around 9.5 - 10.5
– There are a number of teams at the Shrine Game who grade Kevin Dodd ahead of his Clemson teammate, Shaq Lawson. Lawson is universally considered a mid-first round pick while I claimed Dodd was a second day pick last month. The consensus is Lawson is being overrated while Dodd is underrated.
Renowned burnout artist John Ferguson certainly didn't invent the concept, but he did hasten their demise writing about it in his crappy book.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by IAmProfessionalTalk
Also known as "Wong teasers".
I wish I looked at the NBA lines yesterday, because GS as a freaking 3.5 DOG last night, which I would have jumped all over. I mean, they didn't even play the night before, so they were well rested. Yes, I know they lost to the Pistons, I know they lost 2 in a row on the road, I know that the Cavs were at home and looking to prove something, etc etc. But still... I would have jumped all over it, maybe even as a money line if Bovada offered it.
Anyway enough Monday morning quarterbacking.
Here is one for tonight:
Indiana / Phoenix Over 207.5 (mine is 207 -115 on Bovada)
Totals last 5 games for Indy (most recent first, none OT): 255, 222, 197, 213, 210
Totals last 8 games for Suns: 194, 220, 213, 198, 213, 174, 263, 216
Phoenix can't play defense, and Indy is one of those teams which will often play a fast pace against a team with poor defense.
I see this one going over.
Also considered betting Indy -6, but they are coming off a tiring one in Denver yesterday, so I will skip that one.
Also watch for the Pelicans at halftime. Down 12 against the crappy Timberwolves right now in New Orleans. If it goes over 20, and the line is reasonable, take the Pelicans in the 2nd half.
Interesting.
If you blindly bet the Spurs spread, Warriors over, and Miami under, you would have this:
Spurs: 28-13
Warriors: 26-16
Miami: 28-13
Yes, this is basing "would haves" after-the-fact, but now that more than half a season has been established, I wonder if it would be +EV to just blindly fire on these 3 bets every time.
Have the books adjusted enough yet?
BTW, Miami is on pace to go under AGAIN, based upon the halftime total.
MIA unders seem like the best bet to continue, at least until/if they make a trade. I'd have to think GS overs will catch up, and SA should keep progressively lowering minutes/resting the old timers.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Quote:
Originally Posted by DRK Star
So far, so good. Halfway through 2nd period.
Chicago Blackhawks 3 vs Nashville Predators 1 01/19/16 20:05 EST Chicago Blackhawks -1.5 (+250)
Chicago Blackhawks 3 vs Nashville Predators 1 01/19/16 20:05 EST Chicago Blackhawks -115
Well, forget this one.
Nobody can score.
1 point in first 3 minutes of 2nd quarter. Now just 43 points in 15 minutes.
Will take a major scoring pace change + OT to win.
:fail
I bet Warriors ML +130 yesterday. They haven't lost two games in a row yet this season and I knew the team focus would be to come out strong because they were sluggish out of the gate in the previous few games. Playing the Cavs brings the best out of that team and I felt they would win outright enough to take the ML at +130 instead of just getting 3 points at -110 which is what the line was on Bovada when I placed the bet.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I've done about as much looking into this tonight has I can and I just doubled down. I don't see a team taking him in the top 10 short of him running some crazy 40 time, and to that everyone is saying he is slow.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
FINAL: Chicago 4 - Nashville 1Quote:
Originally Posted by DRK StarQuote:
Originally Posted by DRK Star
So far, so good. Halfway through 2nd period.
Chicago Blackhawks 3 vs Nashville Predators 1 01/19/16 20:05 EST Chicago Blackhawks -1.5 (+250)
Chicago Blackhawks 3 vs Nashville Predators 1 01/19/16 20:05 EST Chicago Blackhawks -115
Druff you are God Status if you werent already if Phoenix goes nuts and puts up 40 in the fourth. I'm over here sweating Denver OKC. I got over and den +9 and Den +360. Down 7 now with OKC getting every call possible. Mike Malone is a Saint to not have gotten a tech here.
Jesus I just truly cant post anything about my bets. Now they are gonna find a way for even the over to not hit. Druff good read on Pels coming back. You should have loosened up your betting restrictions for that one.
Nice try Houston Rockets. It worked for a bit though but they still lost.
http://espn.go.com/nba/preview?gameId=400828522
Quote:
Drummond set a career high and franchise record by attempting 36 free throws on a night he was intentionally fouled 21 times. The previous record for most misses was 22, set by Wilt Chamberlain on Dec. 1, 1967.
The Hack-A-Shaq tactic allowed the Rockets to take the lead in the third quarter when they did it 12 straight times, but it didn't help them close the gap in the fourth when Drummond went out for good with 5 1/2 minutes left after seven hacks in the quarter and Detroit leading 107-94.
If Carolina were to end up Playing Denver do you think the line would be 3 or 3.5?
I got a book that's posting 3..... Might be a deal.
I just bet New England -1.5 vs Arizona -115.
I think there is a better chance of this being a 3 point line come Monday AM than a 1 point line.