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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Cubs (Cade Horton) F5 -105 vs ATL (Strider).
Strider recently not as awful as he’s been post surgery. He’s not the same guy
Cubs offensively challenged. Just need one run of Cubs offense. Horton only allowed like 4 runs in 42 innings.
I like the price
I expect CLV by first pitch.
winner, winner, ty.
Meant to bet that Cade Horton one, but forgot. I'd be a hypocrite if I turned it down, after all the pumping of Horton I did.
Horton -130 on DK to be ROY
Honestly my best prop pick of all time. I'm no Daly, so when I find one of these I'm proud, and it wasn't just a shot in the dark either.
Too bad I'm probably going 0-2 today in MLB unless either the Cards or Dbacks can come back from down 5-3 late.
Drift’s other boy pitching for Phillies tonight against KC
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...phillies-debut
“ Walker Buehler can't wait to return to the major leagues Friday, when he'll take the ball for the Philadelphia Phillies for the first game of a three-game series against the Kansas City Royals.”
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
https://youtu.be/cDPL7lRK-ZI?si=BKJ1hhQ_WZB01qDc
I have to think if the Tigers played the first 5 Inn 100 times tonight they would win 70+ of them with Skubal on the bump.
Cant figure the -180 price.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
i'm at -200.
That’s a insta bet on a mistake lineQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Rec books had F5 at -230 which is 70%.
Oct 7th NHL seems like a lifetime away without wagering
How bad are the Padres?
They are still in second place in the NL West
Dodgers are 28-32 since July 1
2024 Dodgers bullpen: No closer, low budget, constantly throwing up zeroes
2025 Dodgers bullpen: Expensive disaster with multiple closers who all suck
Mookie, I’m sorry.
I said some hurtful things about you at short. Maybe I was just mad that you are bailing out Friedman’s continuing shortstop disaster from a front office perspective. Your boss had absolutely no solution but to take a guy who never played short and plug him in.
I could make an argument you are the Dodgers MVP and mean it. The real ones know. We’ll agree not to embarrass Shohei and the marketing department.
We will learn the truth next month won’t we?
While you’re in an apologetic mood, how about saying you’re sorry to Yamamoto, too?Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Guess who’s a half game behind the Mets for wildcard #3?
Guess who will see the Dodgers in round 1 if they finish in the #3 WC spot?
Dodgers now 6 back of Phillies, will have to sweep all 3 heads-up this week to have any shot at #2 seed. Phillies end with Marlins and Twins at home.
Even with multiple starters (Turner, Bohm, Wheeler) on IR they are still winning. Harrison Bader and Jhoan Duran make the Phillies the easy deadline winner at this point.
But their history the last 3 postseasons with bars going cold is always a concern .
Phillies pitching lineup against Dodgers, their Big 3 with Wheeler out and Nola not himself in 25.
Ranger Suarez 12 - 6 W-L, 2.77 ERA, 140 SO, 1.15 WHIP
Christopher Sanchez 13 - 5 W-L, 2.57 ERA, 192 SO, 1.11 WHIP
Jesus Luzardo 14 - 6 W-L, 4.03 ERA, 200 SO, 1.26 WHIP
Note Suarez is a Free Agent this offseason and should get a big deal from someone, maybe LA. Phillies aren’t expected to be a player to retain him with their high payroll already plus the need to try and resign Schwarber & Realmuto. Top 10 prospect in baseball Andrew Painter is his expected replacement.
Painter has been a "top prospect" forever, since he blew out his arm. I'm skeptical. He's by no means a can't-miss guy like Paul Skenes was.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Boz
But yes, this is a good rotation to face the Dodgers, and you're going to miss Yamamoto, who has been super dominant lately.
Monday is undecided, Tuesday is Sheehan, Wednesday is Snell.
Speaking of free agency, I wonder if Schwarber will leave. Probably will, as I imagine a lot of teams will break open the piggy bank for him, even though he's only a DH and usually doesn't hit for average. His age will hold back any really long term contract though.
Painter is absolutely no Skenes, but honestly who is?
As for Schwarber I believe he will be back in Philly. At his age and realizing he’s only a DH (horrible in LF) he’s limited in options. He appears to love Philly and all reports are they want to keep him. I expect him to test the market and they match the top offer. With a raise from the $20m annual he played the past 4 with Philly on.
But if Philly loses quickly again in the playoffs it will be interesting, Nick Castellanos won’t be back but they will have to eat a decent portion of the $20m he’s owed for next year to trade him. Justin Crawford (Carl’s son) seems ready to come up after another decent ML season.
Jose Alvarado probably won’t get his $9m option picked up after the suspension and injury with Duran under team control for 2 more seasons. A few other salaries like Romano (flop) come off the books.
Dodgers (240m) vs Phillies(186m) 2026 top obligations. Both have a few regrets on there.
Phillies still stuck with the horrible Walker contract at $18m and who knows what kind of pitcher Wheeler will be after the blood clot issues. Bader will test the market.
Dodgers stuck with Glasgow and Shell along with a couple others.
Dombrowski > Friedman
Dombrowski has a longer more accomplished career having rebuilt several teams. His sometimes reckless spending is similar to Friedman.
I do have a soft spot for Dumbo’s Boston Championship. He was given a single mission by ownership to get another Championship. He wrote checks and he got the ring. Then he was sacked
Neither is going to be knighted for service to the crown
*******
Yamamoto has been leaps and bounds better last 5 games. Most often for naught. His failure against Brewers is an important black mark. Foreshadowing?
After last night, Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the first pitcher in the modern era (since 1901) to be winless over a 3-start span despite having 30+ strikeouts and fewer than 10 baserunners allowed (H, BB, HBP) over those outings.
Brutal.
Yamamoto has overall been excellent this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
His one recent black mark was the bad game against Anaheim on August 11, but sometimes pitchers just don't have it. Even Skenes had a poor start last month.
The sad thing is that the Dodgers' bedshitting allowed the Phillies to get way past them, so their requirement to play the wildcard round as division champion (for the first time since that round was invented) is now reality.
Even worse, there's a good chance it will be against the Giants, who are both hot recently and obviously detest the Dodgers and will be playing with motivation.
I hope they end up facing the listless Mets or can't-get-much-over-.500 Reds, but I'm guessing it will be the Giants.
A Giants NL championship future wouldn't be a bad bet right now, if the odds are long enough.
I would think both the Giants and Dodgers would be motivated to win a playoff game.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
As HOT as they are now …. @ +5000 and a 2% implied probability I don’t think you are getting sufficient value for Giants to win NL.
I’m seeing +5000 to win WS and “only” +4000 to win the NL. But stranger things have happened with that team.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarI would think both the Giants and Dodgers would be motivated to win a playoff game.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
As HOT as they are now …. @ +5000 and a 2% implied probability I don’t think you are getting sufficient value for Giants to win NL.
DK +5000 / +12000Quote:
Originally Posted by The BozI’m seeing +5000 to win WS and “only” +4000 to win the NL. But stranger things have happened with that team.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
FD +3500 / +7500
How many runs will the Dodgers score? Bases loaded ZERO outs.
If you watch Dodgers regularly please don’t answer
Holy shite
Brewers came back from down 6-1 to win 9-8. Not one of their runs was the result of a home run. Incredible
This is why they are the best team in baseball
I've been so cold lately in sportsbetting that I almost bet this, but backed way because I was seeing the books were trying to encourage action on the other side.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
I didn't think Misiorowski would have it today, and I was right. Felt foolish not betting (coulda gotten +151) and then this happens. Even the ones I skip lose!
There will likely be no 100-game winners this year.
Only 3 teams can possibly win 100:
Brewers would have to go 9-3 or better
Phillies would have to go 11-1 or 12-0
Blue Jays would have to go 13-0
So the only semi-realistic 100 game winner would be the Brewers, but I don't think they'll do it, especially as they may rest players to get ready for the postseason.
What about 100-game losers?
Only 3 possible there, as well:
White Sox would have to go 6-6 or better to avoid losing 100
Washington would have to go 1-12 or better to avoid losing 100
Colorado has already lost 109. They will need to go 2-10 to avoid losing 120, but will lose 110+ unless they go 12-0
So it appears we will have no 100 game winners, possibly a 100-game loser, and almost surely a 110+ game loser
How Seattle has been mid since all the trades is a little surprising. My comment.
Obviously mid since the trade but hot right now. They are a scary lineup. Good bullpen. Starters still a ? come playoffs
Empirical evidence indicates otherwise. If you win over a long long sample size your team is talented. Other team metrics particularly win percentage against >.500 teams bear this out. Home runs aren’t an exclusive indicator of talent.Quote:
BCR: No one is very good. The Brewers are fun and play great.baseball, but not some talent laden roster.
I have been entertained by Padres bunt culture the past couple days, for instance. Elsewhere - base running and defense is a skill more than talent?
The Brewers are very entertaining. If I happen to see they are behind on the scoreboard I tune in to watch them go to work. Dodgers fall behind it is just an hour or two of watching them try to go yard. They have not other talent. That’s dull.
Despite this bad take I still love you cause I know you have other good qualities.
Incredible back and forth game between Phillies and Dodgers currently going on in 10th.
If this is a playoff preview, MLB will be happy.
Brother, I was sitting in your living room. I certainly had the Phillies broadcast on too.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Boz
Dodgers trick-fucked themselves with that bum Banda as some kinda opener. First batter Schwarber HR
Plus money on Phillies last night? Must bet. Then the Phillies money drove the line down to even.
Yes, it would be a fun series.
Must contemplate a let down tomorrow. Champagne in the eyes and all that.
I mean, you chunk off a 3-1 lead in the 7th and fall behind 4-3, then tie it with a Mookie Betts HR, then fall behind 5-4 in the 9th, then tie it with a Pages home run against a tough closer...
... and then you lose thanks to the extra innings placed runner, when you can't get your own placed runner home.
This is one of the many reasons I hate the placed runner rule.
Dodgers bullpen really is shit, though.
Don’t disagree with you on the placed runner rule but it’s not going anywhere for multiple reasons. The Phillies won without a hit due to the stolen base at a perfect time and the sac fly. In some ways it has brought back situational fundamental baseball which is the only positive from it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Pages is becoming a helluva player that flew under the radar to me anyways. Hitting that shot off Duran was the first he has given up as a Phillie.
Robertson at 40 coming back in July after sitting home all season has been a huge success. Between him and Duran the Phillies took a negative and turned it into a positive going into the postseason. Now 1.5 back of the Brewers they have a shot at the #1 seed I didn’t think was possible a week ago. Don’t think they will get it with 2 more against the Dodgers and 3 at a resurgent Arizona this weekend. Magic number over Dodgers for #2 seed is now 7.
New Dodgers pattern:
- Starting pitcher throws incredible game, going 5+ innings, allowing 0-1 hits, and 0-1 runs
- Offense is okayish, scoring 3-4 runs, leaving the Dodgers with a decent late inning lead
- Bullpen blows it, Dodgers lose
- Alternate ending: Bullpen blows it, offense makes an inspiring comeback to tie it, bullpen blows it again
:gay
Horton now -280 on DK for ROY
Next time, please, one of you volunteer to help me get more action on it. I'll give you a cut.
Paging San,
It is probably past your bedtime so you missed it, but you would have really appreciated the last 2 Dodger games. Not quite as dramatic as the Yamamoto game, but pretty crushing losses following the same pattern.
One of the sports books needs to come up wit a Dodger parlay special; Dodgers win first 5 and lose game.
Past my bedtime? I hate watch the greatest lineup ever assembled in the history of baseball nearly every night. Have for years. In all humility, I have something of a reputation when it comes to the Dodgers. Different platforms I’m on and my texts have been blowing up. My army of “aficionados of fail” is growing.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kalam
Ohtani is the greatest player baseball has ever seen. I’m not missing that. Last night he pitched a shutout against a first place team and simultaneously hit a homerun to set a record. It’s reminiscent of prime Angels Ohtani. Similar waste of his talent.
Ohtani was cruising thru 5. The front office had a plan and they stuck with it regardless of what their eyeballs told them.
After 5 innings Dave Roberts asked Ohtani how he was feeling. Ohtani is like, “I feel good”. Roberts tells him he’s done and Ohtani is like, “cool”. This is so odd but it’s also why I watch. Ohtani is so fascinating. There isn’t a player from western culture who wouldn’t fight to stay in. Bauer woulda thrown the baseball over the center field fence rather than let the manager pull him from the game. Scherzer, Bumgarner? Ohtani is a curious personality. I still haven’t nuked him out. The Dodgers have no idea what they are doing pitching wise, of course. That was also a horrifying look if you are a teammate. Very Southern California casual perhaps. This fits with drunk Orel Hirshiser always talking about the Dodgers “flipping the switch” when it comes post season caring and effort. That’s not how it works in baseball. Maybe it’s the weed not alcohol.
When are you ever gonna let Ohtani go 6 innings? You think Dodgers have any prayer of winning in the playoffs with only 5 innings of an a Ohtani start? Let Ohtani get used to it.
Sheehan gave up one hit and he got pulled. Ohtani gave up NO hits and got pulled. I love it so. This is why I tune in nightly. The entertainment is top shelf.
Roberts has nothing to do with whether Ohtani stayed in or not. This is all scripted by the front office. As long as Roberts toes the line he has the promise of a lifetime of employment. No matter that the Dodgers are proven to be the single worst organization to determine a proper pitching approach.
Winning a World Series is secondary in LA. If Ohtani went out in the 6th or 7th statistically nothing would have happened. However, if something had happened health-wise Friedman would be out of a job. Maybe Roberts too. Long term Ohtani (tickets) is more important than rings.
You aren’t the only one to consider first half/second half parlays. I haven’t bet one yet but I hear it discussed. I bet a live half inning prop immediately when the bullpen arrived. It’s pretty much the same thing if you have the time.
I bet Phillies would score over 3 runs. They scored 6.
I bet a number of total overs too. It’s not big money. It’s just fun for me. We get to do it nightly too.
I can offer you a trial membership to my club if you have references.
I said something earlier in the year about the NL West being competitive for a change. I wish to retract that.
Just awful. How have the fail Padres not gained ground on a sub .500 team since the All Star game?
Realignment can’t happen fast enough.
The amazing thing is that the Padres can't score runs, despite all the talented hitters they signed, and also despite acquiring Ryan O'Hearn and Ramon Laureano at the deadline. And despite getting far, far more out of Gavin Sheets than they ever imagined.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
In the NL, only the Pirates, Nationals, and Rockies have scored fewer runs than the Padres. And the Nationals are just 1 run behind.
Despite their offensive inconsistency, the Dodgers still lead the NL in runs scored, just a hair behind the Yankees for the MLB lead. The Dodgers' issue has been pitching. In the first half it was the starting pitching, and in the second half it's been the bullpen.
Padres are just an extremely dysfunctional team, and I see playoff fail for them, too.
And as for the Giants, they're just not very good. They had their brief surge, but now they've dropped 4 straight and are falling out of the playoff picture.
It will be amazing if the Diamondbacks make the playoffs despite the fire sale, which is very possible, as they're just 1.5 behind the Mets.
Everyone gets in the playoffs in 2025 Druff. DBacks in playoffs would be so thoroughly modern of the MLB.