It ain't easy being greasy.........
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It ain't easy being greasy.........
Free money..........
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mintjewlips
Free money..........
That -3 is going to get hammered by the public.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by MintjewlipsFree money..........
That -3 is going to get hammered by the public.
Damn it was 2 1/2 like 5 minutes ago lol.
Arsenal/Sunderland O3.5
Quote:
Originally Posted by MintjewlipsFree money..........
Here are some general tips for MLB this season.
As with all general tips, you can't just blanket bet based upon guidelines. You always need to analyze the line, the pitchers, the team, the matchups, etc.
However, this might help you a bit in deciding what to look at...
1) There are some really awful pitchers starting this year, who are pretty much a lock to get destroyed. If you see a pitcher with horrible numbers starting, and you're not laying too steep of a price against him, strongly consider taking the favorite. You also might want to consider the over.
2) In interleague matchups in AL parks, you should generally favor the AL team if an average, below average, or bad pitcher is going for the NL team. NL pitchers have a tough time adjusting to the DH slot. In general, the NL has had a very poor record in AL parks over the past several seasons. You also might want to consider the over.
3) The best underdog moneyline values in MLB come from good pitchers on bad teams facing good teams. If you see a bad team facing a good one, where the bad team's pitcher is either good or pitching well lately, strongly consider going with the underdog. Do not get greedy and go for the -1.5 line on the underdog, though, as many of the winners will be 1-run games.
4) Resist betting overs for night games in pitcher's parks, especially in the NL. If anything, bet the under.
5) Avoid totals bets in Colorado, as these are highly unpredictable and extremely tough to handicap. In fact, all games in Colorado tend to be tough to handicap.
6) You are unlikely to make much money (or any money) on big favorites, so avoid them. The real value in MLB side betting comes primarily from identifying value dogs and value small favorites.
7) Pay attention to trends of the starting pitcher. A pitcher with a bad ERA and good WHIP may be primed to turn things around, whereas the reverse is often indicative of a pending blowup. A pitcher whose velocity is increasing is often one who will surprise opponents and have some upcoming good starts, while a pitcher with decreased velocity may be on the way to a downward spiral.
8) Pay attention to teams' abilities to hit lefties and righties. If the team has unusually good or bad numbers against the "hand" of the opposing pitcher, factor that into your picks.
I will be depositing to BetOnline soon and placing some bets myself, and will share them out here after I've placed my bets.
GL
Had to reload my bookmaker account to fire on Cmoney's celtics pick, got +489 for the series.
Taking a shot with SF Giants - Cueto @ +167
see some value on mil tonight on the road plus 105. mil better team trending right direction v SD, garza slightly better pitcher. just 1 unit. like LAA, AZ and texas as well.
This is not free money............
I got +122 earlier. I'm with you on BrewersQuote:
Originally Posted by Charham
Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 959 Milwaukee Brewers +122 for Game
Gotta makeup that Celtics stinker
+122 nice 1. I should have shopped the line more. I just started up MLB again yesterday after starting the season too early and taking a few weeks off. 8 and 0 re start!Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarI got +122 earlier. I'm with you on BrewersQuote:
Originally Posted by Charham
Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 959 Milwaukee Brewers +122 for Game
Gotta makeup that Celtics stinker
I don't see anything today, except Texas.
Look at the Dodgers game for grins. LAD are -200 paleeese. I know its Miami they are playing, but that LAD pitcher RYU is hardly an ace and could puke up any game all on his own. -200.
Going with over 8 in the Sox game allone with over 4 Oakland TT
I'm seeing Miami +179 right now, but I agree that's a good value here. Ryu is pretty much done. On the downside, Dodgers have been very tough at home since 2015 (about a .667 record), and Miami is sending Volquez out, who hasn't started in 2017. But the value is good. I'm not betting it in part because I have no $ online yet, and in part because I just don't like betting against the Dodgers since I'm a fan.Quote:
Originally Posted by Charham+122 nice 1. I should have shopped the line more. I just started up MLB again yesterday after starting the season too early and taking a few weeks off. 8 and 0 re start!Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
I don't see anything today, except Texas.
Look at the Dodgers game for grins. LAD are -200 paleeese. I know its Miami they are playing, but that LAD pitcher RYU is hardly an ace and could puke up any game all on his own. -200.
simpdog, you said, "Don't listen to Druff in MLB"
I'm wondering why you say that.
I was an MLB winner last year, and this was over a lot of bets. I'm not saying it's statistically significant, but I'm surprised you're criticizing me in MLB, of all sports.
What issue do you take with the guide I wrote above?
Curious why you're going with the Sox over.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Hector Velazquez has been excellent in AAA, which I realize is quite a distance from MLB, but I always fear betting against first-time rookies who are crushing in the minors.
Sonny Gray has been okayish since coming off the DL on May 1.
Also, the game is in Oakland at night.
Is there something I'm missing?
Bullpen last night plus the rook.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffCurious why you're going with the Sox over.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Hector Velazquez has been excellent in AAA, which I realize is quite a distance from MLB, but I always fear betting against first-time rookies who are crushing in the minors.
Sonny Gray has been okayish since coming off the DL on May 1.
Also, the game is in Oakland at night.
Is there something I'm missing?
OK GL.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyBullpen last night plus the rook.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Hope I'm wrong because I don't have action on it and you do.
MLB
5/19
954 PIT -104
955 WAS -146
964 LAD -226
971 KC +110
975 BOS -188
Sorry about the juice but the lines will move
GL
welcome to the big leaguesQuote:
Originally Posted by DalyBullpen last night plus the rook.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffOK GL.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Hope I'm wrong because I don't have action on it and you do.
Your point is well taken if it's a blue chip prospect. If it was Michael Kopech coming up to make his first start I'd stay away. This kid was a 28 yard old rookie with moderate numbers in the Mexican league.
To be fair he didn't completely go out there and embarrass himself. He did last 5 innings and that's what the team needed more than anything.
I was inspired by Daly's post but too lazy to respond and jammed it in minutes before startQuote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Your point is well taken if it's a blue chip prospect. If it was Michael Kopech coming up to make his first start I'd stay away. This kid was a 28 yard old rookie with moderate numbers in the Mexican league.
To be fair he didn't completely go out there and embarrass himself. He did last 5 innings and that's what the team needed more than anything.
Accepted:
5/18/2017 9:14:51 PM
Description:
Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 914 Boston Red Sox/Oakland Athletics over 8 -110 for Game
The poker player in you should have spotted a tell. Daly has not posted many MLB picks. So if you saw this you dove deep for the why.
What clinched it for me was that they were stretching the AAA guy out from 50 pitches to 90 just before the call up.
Sawks overs are a relic of days gone by and indulging in blind nostalgia will cost you. This was special.
I was entertained
MLB has been god this year. You may not like the sport compared to NFL or NBA but learn it if you like money.
So many public favorites shitting the bed (Cubs/Sawks especially). Some consistent early surprises (Yankees/Milwaukee). Avoid the trick or treat teams (Detroit as an example)
It's been the consistent story lines. It's rare that things run this pure
cardinals, houston and seattle look pretty good to me today. all home, slightly better pitchers (short term) and better trending teams.
Milwaukee v Chicago total over intrigues me but they have not posted a line yet.
Gonna be busy fighting Trump today and will prolly miss
Dodgers -235 vs Marlins lefty smells like the definition stupidity wagering fade. Maybe not ML but there is something there to work with.
I am wondering what the line would be if Kershaw was pitching. doesn't look like he will against miami, but -300 could be in the works. dodgers getting a lot of love with the lines.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Cubs total got away from me. 8 -125 ---> 8.5 now. Couldn't pull trigger. My bad
Just missed shorting AMZN and Nasdaq. I am having one of those days when I can't gamble
Have a fucking plan and stick to it
It's a weird thing but sometimes I'll torch some money (Celtics wormhole) knowing that if it burns me it will then spur me to get head back in the game. However, days when you can't pull trigger at all just results in tilt and forced action.
Sometimes you gotta have a feel for what kind of retard you are on a particular day and shut him down
I am on massive monkey tilt watching charts. I am a follower to your picks today
its freezing in chicago and wind blowing in i believe so would avoid any overs.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Yeah, it's moving against me.Quote:
Originally Posted by Charhamits freezing in chicago and wind blowing in i believe so would avoid any overs.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Too late
Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 952 Milwaukee Brewers/Chicago Cubs over 8 -110 for Game
Two rights don't make a wrong
Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 952 Milwaukee Brewers/Chicago Cubs over 7½ +100 for Game
Love the new Cubs Eddie Bauer Edition
88 pitches in 3 in innings. Is that possible? Can't believe I haven't locked this shit up already
Okay, I will eat crow on this one with Oakland/Boston and the over last night.
Wasn't even close.
I think of Michael Wacha whenever I see a pitcher killing it in the minors, then translating it (at least for some time) in MLB. Wacha wasn't a great prospect to my knowledge.
I will say that I always doubt myself when I disagree with a bet Daly posts.
You do love the prospects. I'll say thatQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
close, looking good. rain delay. it is cold, windy and crappy in chicago but will be moving through.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Would be funny that a rare 2 unit bet loses with runners 2nd & 3rd and no outs.Quote:
Originally Posted by Charhamclose, looking good. rain delay. it is cold, windy and crappy in chicago but will be moving through.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Live had total @ 10.5
But I know they'll get this in. God wants me to fade the Dodgers with profit. He has a plan that excludes Druff
I ain't Tim Tebow but I hear things too
AGon is back and Turner is out. Nuff said
Marlin's kid is a lefty who fared well against Dodgers last year and last start was good.
Your bet will push. Still sucks if this game is called.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Was Wacha 28 when he came up after pitching a year in the Mexican league?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Tomorrow
Cubs Arrieta (-200) v Brewers Anderson
Wow. The power of the Cubs brand
The total is not out yet. Guaranteed shit show ... and they know it
Everything is out but this for tomorrow
Help a neophyte out. What do we need to do with this?Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
I am praying to jump on the release of an 8.Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendHelp a neophyte out. What do we need to do with this?Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
I understand weather is an issue (rain). They make a big deal out of wind blowing in or over fence. That'll be reflected in the total too.
Whateverthefuck the number is it'll be too low Imo. The dreadfulness of these two will not be fully accounted for. Two good offenses
Google SBR Odds MLB. Find the BetOnline number (they are usually first) and double click for the line history compared to your book. Get a feel for wether it's rising or falling. It'll rise imo. I want to be first
The -200 Cubs line is insane. I'm supposed to play the law of large numbers with respect to value. I really don't gamble that way. I don't put in that kind of volume to realize that value. This is a shit show coin flip. More suited to live betting for me. Live betting heavily follows the pregame line. Regardless if the start of the game reveals different performance.
Let me see the cards first.
Gotcha. Thank you!Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarI am praying to jump on the release of an 8.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
I understand weather is an issue (rain). They make a big deal out of wind blowing in or over fence. That'll be reflected in the total too.
Whateverthefuck the number is it'll be too low Imo. The dreadfulness of these two will not be fully accounted for. Two good offenses
Google SBR Odds MLB. Find the BetOnline number (they are usually first) and double click for the line history compared to your book. Get a feel for wether it's rising or falling. It'll rise imo. I want to be first
Does this make a difference ? (CHC) Jake Arrieta (R) -- just saw it on a betting site. Is it old news?
It's Arrieta v Anderson. Arrieta has a great reputation from last year. He is several clicks down this year on fastball. His other stuff suffers as a result too. But they still love him.Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendGotcha. Thank you!Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Does this make a difference ? (CHC) Jake Arrieta (R) -- just saw it on a betting site. Is it old news?
Anderson is a bum. Both guys have similar numbers actually
Look, the power of Chicago fans put David Ross in the finals of Dancing With the Stars. The story goes the judges looked appalled. That's what you're dealing with. Read PLOP's stuff. See?