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Finally getting really psyched up about tomorrow's card. Everyone made weight, so unless there are some gall stones or sinus infections or hitting heads on pipes doing sprints in the arena basement, shit's on.
Aljo and Barao is at 140, because Cali wasn't gonna let him die on their watch trying to make weight.
Barao best value on card?
im up on barao, maia, and cerrone.
to lose all 3 would not shock me to the marrow or anything but imo, maia is the best value on the card. its just really unlikely to me that woodley will survive more than 30 seconds past maia clinching with him. obviously the other side of that coin is that woodley is a fucking supernaturally good striker but i think maia can goad him into making himself vulnerable by going ham with leg kicks then shooting the super low double and pulling guard as a plan b.
cerrone is another one who should be able to come with weird, accurate angles but he also suffers from that whole 'final boss mode is enabled after taking serious damage' deal, and against lawler that might not be something he can survive, but i dont think hes going to try to go blow for blow like rory here and should be able to solve lawler.
I don't think Maia has much chance with Woodley. Maia is in danger the entire time the fight is on the feet, and he has to get inside and clinch to have a shot at getting Ty down, which is a pretty tall task by itself before you take into account the bombs he throws when you try to get inside. Even if Maia gets him down for the first 3 rounds, he still only has to touch Maia once or twice to end it. I think Maia tires first, if he even gets it to go long enough to get tired. Also, relatively late notice for Maia and Woodley has expected this fight for months.
In a billion years, I'd never be surprised to see Maia get starched by Woodley, but Woodley has fought for 50 straight minutes in his last 2 fights and landed one (1) significant blow.
To a degree, apples and oranges, but Maia is slippery and wise and easily 10x the submission expert that Woodley is the striker.
Also a fun fact, is that Woodley is telling anyone who is willing to listen that his wrestling is going to negate Maia's takedowns. Not confidence inspiring, that.
I think that's actually the biggest key to the fight, tho. If they have to spend any significant time on their feet, it's 100% Woodley. Probably how its gonna play put, IMO.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Stephen Thompson was a dude who really doesn't get hit by anyone, and Maia is the same way for sure, but the reasons are completely different. Thompson was elusive and outside, Maia has to get inside to be his sort of elusive. Catch him once coming in, or a few hammers when he first gets in, and its over.
Weigh-In airing now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVUX5QoQpHU
ppv will be all down hill after Cerrone/Lawler. no way the rest of the card lives up to the hype.
Before these posts, this afternoon I though Barao, Maia parlay is legit. Jones can go to hell, but -250 seems like a steal. He is so much more athletic than Cormier, its hard not to pick him.
However, his attitude hasn't changed one bit though so he might not be ready for this right out of the bat. If he loses this fight, its going to do to his fighting prowess and career/ego like what the Holm fight did to Rousey.
I cant take the emotional hit of him fucking me over the past 2 PPV's AND lose money on him so I will stay away.
Lamas/Knight?
cormier will likely retire after he gets decisioned tomorrow night.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Fight won't go distance. I refuse to believe in this
jones is out of shape, emotionally frail, and by the time he imploded was already a firmly committed point fighter.
the only way he stops cormier is if cormier gasses in the first round. it could happen tho, cormier is old as shit. when he was going to pieces after the last fight got scrapped, my first thought was "this guy is acting like this was the last fight he had in him and he knew it".
cormier might try to make it competitive and stop jones in the first but jones is just going to tap dance backwards with his fingers in cormiers eyes, probably catch a 9-9 round off his penalty, and still get a 49-45 UD.
barao went from +100 when I posted aboot 8 hours ago to -125 most places now.
Barao shouldn't be thinking about moving back to bantamweight he should be considering retirement.
barao faded faaaaaast...
im really not sure what he can bring to the sport at this point, hes not going to beat anyone relevant.
I laugh when I read back how sure I am about woodley-maia. I act like I know shit, but none of us know a fucking thing. We're all running 55-45 races, with the requisite confirmation bias that comes with winning a few.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
I love this sport.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crowe DiddlyI laugh when I read back how sure I am about woodley-maia. I act like I know shit, but none of us know a fucking thing. We're all running 55-45 races, with the requisite confirmation bias that comes with winning a few.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
I love this sport.
i hear you. that said a lot of people i respect are on woodley here and not even flinching so i expect your money is safe.
also shout out to me still having a bankroll because its too big a pain in the ass to put bitcoins on fucking 5d. i was going suuuuper broke on barao otherwise.
FFS
We send over one of our best and he's outa there in 30 seconds.
LOL..
Just to think if Cormier or Jones pulled out Dana White said that Jimi Manuwa was going to be the replacement.