Nobody is worried about the election or the nightclub. Brexit, Fed, acquisitions or the phase of the moon. Truth is it doesn't matter.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pooh
But take a victory lap. Glad it's back.
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Nobody is worried about the election or the nightclub. Brexit, Fed, acquisitions or the phase of the moon. Truth is it doesn't matter.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pooh
But take a victory lap. Glad it's back.
This is where you're wrong. Short term it does matter. VIX is up because of one thing. Volume is through the roof. Once this vote is done then I'm out. Probably a day or two before the vote I'm out. VIX still isn't even to its average position. I could be wrong. We'll see in a week.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarNobody is worried about the election or the nightclub. Brexit, Fed, acquisitions or the phase of the moon. Truth is it doesn't matter.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pooh
But take a victory lap. Glad it's back.
Random but I am proud of this
Cisco Systems, Inc. Jul 15 2016 29.00 Put(@CSCO 160715P00029000)
$1.04
In retrospect, I should have jumped out of VXX after the spike. The plan is to be out Wed or Thurs this week. For arguments sake, if it doesn't spike again or god forbid goes down I will sell weekly covered calls for shits and giggles. My 10k shares will get me between 8-10k a week right now. That's reasonable money.
What a tasty little nugget...
Japan
U.S. Stocks Are About to Crash, Japan's Stock Market Is Telling UsQuote:
But these efforts have fallen flat. The economy is still stagnant, investment levels have not improved, and savers are buying safes in record numbers to hoard more cash at home.
https://www.thestreet.com/story/1361...elling-us.html
Negative interest rates, very interesting. I'll be here all day, leave a tip on your way out.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
I have had a lot of what-if conversations lately about interest rates. Is it actually possible for the US to ever have double digit interest rates again? What about 5%? What about 2.5%? (Central bank rates)
The problem is quite a few would lose their houses. Paranoia would set in and the markets would tank.
Since we're living in a simulation I'd like to see the other simulation where that happened.
What a clusterfuck I made out of ETE this week. Between not taking profits on VXX and this I probably left 50k on the table the past four trading days.
:facepalm3
Sold at $1.50Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
44% in a week or so. Yeah, I am kinda proud.
Fucking bought 10k shares VXX at the open at $16.04 only to watch it fall to $14.99. Sold it at $17.01. Easy money.
Paper accounts don't count. Never has someone tried so hard.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pooh
Props to Hanicapme for the - 2% call backed by the open challenge.
I am leaving all kinds of loose change on the table. Booking profit too soon. Just playing bad.
The CSCO thing I posted is an example of wanting to get getting paid and not waiting. I just can't hold over weekends though. Just don't do it.
The airline plays pissed me off. Thought of this Friday and only got a taste.
Brexit apparently determined to be responsible for Facebook, Google & the Zika virus according to CNBC and the idiot press.
Brexit is good fun but it is also a catalyst for some overdue fin correction at a choppy top.
My friend, the chump, loses again. Too funny. He is bullish today. Be careful.Quote:
Originally Posted by snake_in_the_assBiggest stock market chump I know says the market is going to all time highs. The guy has never had a winning trade. Might have to join your VXX trade.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pooh
A lot of better ways to get exposed to Vol then just buying VXX, if you have options writing ability.Quote:
Originally Posted by snake_in_the_assMy friend, the chump, loses again. Too funny. He is bullish today. Be careful.Quote:
Originally Posted by snake_in_the_ass
Is this really a rebound already?
This AM I degened on TSLA. Bought some 200 calls and 180 puts since I assumed the markets would continue falling further but apparently was completely wrong.
Up over 60% on these do I ride it out to see what tomorrow brings?
Ended up on options this week but bailed early and left profit on the table.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
Apparently Brexit was nothing and all of our economies are amazing.
But we all know that is horseshit.
S&P record levelsQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Nasdaq 5000. All kinds of highs today
NTDOY Nintendo crazy. New Pokemon game is some kind of new rage
Could be a crazy break out for markets
Earnings could be interesting but I think bad news gets shaken off.
There is no place else to go. Why does this feel like 1986? Germany -1.6 US 10yr 1.4 and less shorter. Madness
All the talking heads leaning same way. It's all flawed and wrong but can't be a hero. This ain't about fundamentals.
Summer volatility. I actually wish this shit would stop. Supposed to be chillin now.
It's hard to stay calm today
October is gonna be fun but you don't want to step in front of this train.
UFC fighting sold Chaps. $2million ---->$4billion. Need to read this story sometime
God, I hate TSLA. Just the thought of it. PT Barnum. Read a line in a car magazine story. Writer was talking about the terrible way German cars hold their value.
"Stepper motors made from cake frosting". Omg what a fucking great line. Got me thinking about electric car built in obsolescence and stuff.
CGC on TSX
Canopy Growth Corp.
Profit off weed legally
Election year plus banks needing growth = next leg up in the market.
S&P 2300 by year end easy.
I can't wait for the crash...sigh keep pulling outQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Never short a dull market.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdogI can't wait for the crash...sigh keep pulling outQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
You are not alone with the crash idea. In fact, too many people share this idea, IMO. First, this notion needs to be punished.
Daly prolly is not wrong. We will see some kinda shake and bake that will force folks to question the landscape first before any kind of Apocolypse.
Even in an up market there is room for scheudenfruede and negative energy. Consider the the adage that the market seeks to take the most amount of money from the most people and you will find comfort. Witness the smiling faces while knowing their fate.
In the mean time pull the wings off a fly or invent another PFA contest to torture us with.
Perhaps try to game when the last remaining doubt that Hillary will be Pres. is removed. Sell the news kinda thing. We will need some other catalyst. Nov 9th is not the date to watch.
Ya not shorting anything here. Just sitting on the cash waiting for better times.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarNever short a dull market.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
You are not alone with the crash idea. In fact, too many people share this idea, IMO. First, this notion needs to be punished.
Daly prolly is not wrong. We will see some kinda shake and bake that will force folks to question the landscape first before any kind of Apocolypse.
Even in an up market there is room for scheudenfruede and negative energy. Consider the the adage that the market seeks to take the most amount of money from the most people and you will find comfort. Witness the smiling faces while knowing their fate.
In the mean time pull the wings off a fly or invent another PFA contest to torture us with.
Perhaps try to game when the last remaining doubt that Hillary will be Pres. is removed. Sell the news kinda thing. We will need some other catalyst. Nov 9th is not the date to watch.
Plugging away trying for 2-3% small trades so I don't get caught with my hand in the cookie jar when something finally gives
Although with the rates so low maybe we are in for a longer run up until everyone and their brothers overextend themselves to create the next crisis
God I want to believe it's on (but I know it ain't time yet). Just show me some cracks.
Been shorting internet retailers. AMZN obv & Boston's own Wayfair among others.
I am trying real hard to just trade what I see. My head knows this is just inflated multiples taking a haircut but my heart can't shake the stories I am hearing about deceptive sales practices lawsuits coming in this industry.
Advertising things as "on sale" when they are not.
Click a "sale item" and it ain't on sale in your cart.
Sale item is just list price.
Etc etc
Lotta the stuff is innocent old incompetence but there is deception too.
I am told Zappos is renting out their Vegas parking lot on weekends. They know the hangman is comin too.
Fundamentally I know there is too much retail. Physical stores got hammered and same goes for online IMO. But opinions are like assholes and it's a great way to go broke. Gotta fight that shit. But I am pumped. Just gotta let it come to me.
Sleep deprivation makes me emotional. Thanks Druff.
The Wells Fargo thing reminds me of the unintended consequences of badly managed incentives.
Oh, and the chipmakers. Die.
So many great stories for a guy filled with so much hate.
Made the above post just before noon. Dow down 120'ish
Dow finished down 394 for day.
AMZN alone gave me another 16 points since noon.
Nice volume off the highs. No bids and absolutely no stress. Every microscopic bounce was sold by some big operators.
Worst day since Brexit.
CNBC will tell you tales of Fed worries. They are stumbling around for a reason. There is no fear in market. No fear no bounce.
Glorious.
I am entertained.
Everything I watch is red except AAPL which is lol since they are getting shit on for a crappy new iphone.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Caesar's CZR up 9% today.
CGC on the TSE popping.
Market leaders for medicinal weed.
Chaps approved. Could be multi-billion dollar industry in Canada (or bigger) long term.
Simp be nimble
Simp be quick
Gotta thank you for WVE. I put it on watchlist as it looked wild. Caught some of the sell off
You still long ENDP?Quote:
Originally Posted by Krypt
As soon as the election numbers turn and or when she finally gets the nomination the market will explode up.
Been on the sidelines.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Yellen has been playing ball with the Obama & Hillary. A return to normal and an a rate hike in December was my hunch.
The targets were the high multiple suspects in this bubble. A lot of them have quietly taken a haircut while I waited. Gets complicated.
I expected a "sell the news" reaction and a rate hike. I think Hillary being elected is already baked in. However, this basing action as we have been approaching the election concerns me. A stupid rally would be tempting to fade but that is how people get killed.
A shady President news cycle with threats of indictments could be fun. A crazy Trump victory would be way funner. A contested election would be epic.
The reality is I will just follow the momentum and collect nickels and dimes like always.
You paid $42.23 for ENDP and it is now $14.51. Is this the wealth effect you were talking about? LMAO!!!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by snake_in_the_assYou still long ENDP?Quote:
Originally Posted by Krypt
Thought for the day
During the campaign, Trump lambasted Yellen for keeping interest rates low, accusing her of trying to benefit President Obama and Hillary Clinton. Of course, this was the play book.
December is only a month away. Yellen's deal doesn't run out til 2018. She will certainly be in conversation with Trump prior to inauguration.
I actually think Yellen is on the same page as Trump.
Great sales guy, Trump. But you will get a sneak preview of where the rubber meets the road.
If you're looking for the next wave of fun and controversy you won't have to wait long.
Volatility will be back baby!
Anyone else still on CGC? It's skyrocketing
Let's not forget the LEAPs he bought on LNG @70ish strike price. The guy's a self hating sand n-word. A born loser. Instead of just flushing the money down the shitter maybe he could donate to the free roll so others here can enjoy it. Or use it on the rare lower grade hooker who can tolerate fucking a worth less sand n-word that smells like Hillary's fat loser ass.Quote:
Originally Posted by snake_in_the_assYou paid $42.23 for ENDP and it is now $14.51. Is this the wealth effect you were talking about? LMAO!!!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by snake_in_the_ass
Instead of playing on daddy's Bloomberg terminal I urge Krypt to go out and riot like the rest of his loser age group then strongly consider killing himself.
With all due respect of course.
The DAPL fiasco will be getting put to bed early next week in ETE's favor of course since they did everything by the book.
Anyone interested in facts they can read http://www.orlandosentinel.com/opini...109-story.html.
If you invested in ETE then enjoy the ride the next couple years. If not don't say I didn't advocate you to.
Here's the way it will go. DAPL will be online by end of first quarter 2017. Rover will be partially online by June and fully by end of 2017. After those two major projects come online the money will come flowing in like nothing ever seen before. If Shell ever gets its head out of its ass and decides to move forward with Lake Charles then all bets are off. This thing will explode.
At some point ETE will roll up all its LP's into one ginormous energy infrastructure pipeline behemeth. It will be the largest in the world when it does and it will be shitting out money to you so fiercely you won't even be able to stand yourself. You could have had all this for under $14 a share before the election. Now it's $17. Once this pipeline completion gets approved it will move up more. It's a low $20 stock now, double that by end of 2018 if projects proceed as expected.
That is all.
Another oldie but goodie is possibly in play now that Trump is going to be in the White House. CVR refining (CVRR) is a small refiner that has been getting killed by RINs. And by getting killed I mean potentially putting them out of business in the future if it continues. In short, RINs have to do with renewable energy and we all know how the Donald feels about that topic. Before the RIN fiasco CVRR was a $20 stock. During the energy boom it was closer to $30. It's now around $8 because they haven't been able to pay a distribution in the past year. I purchased around $14 and sold around $20 and pocketed an additional almost $4 in distributions while I owned it. It was a very good stock for me while I was getting crushed otherwise during the downturn last year.
A couple things to notice as well. Carl Ichan is a major holder of both CVRR and its parent company CVR Energy. CVRR is a MLP, which comes as a surprise since I'm encouraging you to buy it, not. This means that if they start paying distributions again you won't be paying taxes on them until you sell the units. Anyway, we all know Ichan and Trump are good buddies. You do the math.
RINs go bye bye, CVRR goes up significantly. How much is anyone's guess. Crack spreads are crap right now and that's how refiners make their money. Also refiners make better money as oil prices decrease not increase. Nonetheless, the price of CVRR will be a good deal over $10 should RINs be eliminated.
Thinking about selling 100 June $10 puts for an income of around $27k. If stock is over $10 in June then I pocket the $27k. If not we deal with it then. Regardless, I get the $27k up front. If it jumps up to $12 or so in next couple months I can close early for a pretty enormous profit.
To those who hate Trump here's some advice. There's good money to be made just by thinking about what he favors and dislikes. Atleast profit a little because of it. I would do the same had Hillary won on Tuesday.
Still mulling it over.....
Black Town cars.
Handicap, you rump swap. Why the silence? You work election night? Any stories or thoughts?
I think some guys got margin called during that 24 hours. I also think some hedges went busto leaning the wrong way. But that's just my sunny disposition at work.
You, the risk manager, would be THE GUY to get his nose broken.
Interest-rate futures indicate a 92% chance of at least a 25 basis-point increase next month. I am short the tech and FANG type high multiples. I can't put together Trump's trillion dollar deficit spending with inflation and bonds.
I know he called out Obama and Yellen over holding rates for Hillary and the bubble. But higher rates don't jive with his dreams of his own stimulus.
This ain't Reagan era stuff. I am completely unable to create a vision in my head as to what is going to happen. I know he was speaking in parables about the wall and all that. Trust me I ain't that stupid. NAFTA sure.
I have to let the charts show me the way. Good times are coming regardless. If I had a dog his name would be VIX.
I might as well cut and paste this every weekQuote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
+19% today.