7 pt teaser. Going for it all
Indianapolis Colts -7 (-105) Pick
Over 49 (-115) Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts 42
Detroit Lions -7˝ -˝
Cincinnati Bengals Pick +7
Seattle Seahawks -10 (-105) -3
Risk 500 To Win 1625 @ +325
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7 pt teaser. Going for it all
Indianapolis Colts -7 (-105) Pick
Over 49 (-115) Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts 42
Detroit Lions -7˝ -˝
Cincinnati Bengals Pick +7
Seattle Seahawks -10 (-105) -3
Risk 500 To Win 1625 @ +325
Hasn't been a great week for me in the NBA. After a hot streak, I've gone just 4-6 in my last 10, and did not post a single winning day. Took yesterday off.
Let's get back on the horse.
Portland -5 -105 at Indiana - Both teams are back-to-back, and Portland is back-to-back on the road. But there's no comparison between these two teams. Indiana (7-16) is awful, and has lost 7 in a row. Portland is 17-6, though they have lost 2 in a row. I like the 5-point line on this one. Is is only -5 because Portland is back-to-back on the road, and because Portland only beat Indiana by 6 when they faced each other in Portland on December 4.
Houston -7.5 vs. Denver - Denver has been bad against good teams on the road. Much of mediocre Denver's advantage comes from their high-altitude home floor. On the road, they aren't the same team. (Utah has this factor, as well.) Houston is getting Howard back today, and Ariza is also likely to play. This game is off the board at some books, due to the uncertainty regarding Howard and Ariza (though they probably will play).
Houston/Denver - Under 204.5 - Houston has gone UNDER in the vast majority of games so far this year, and they would have gone under last time if they hadn't gone into OT. Howard brings more to defense than he does offense, especially after a long time out. Houston has been great at keeping the score low against normally-high-scoring squads, hence the reason for so many unders hitting. The public also loves this line, as it has moved from 206.5 to 204.5. Note that this might be off the board at your book.
Sacramento -6 -105 - I hate picking the Kings without Cousins, as they suck, but this is really more against Detroit. The Pistons are terrible. Their 4-19 record is second-worst in the NBA, and they even recently suffered the indignity of a loss to Philadelphia (1-20 against everyone else). Here you get Sac at home, and even without Cousins, they're worlds better than Detroit. Still doubting this is a good line? Sacramento was +0 against a 16-4 Houston team their last time out, and they indeed finished regulation in a tie! Sac took a tough loss in OT against the Rockets. Look for them to come back here and smack down this weak opponent. Disclosure: Public is on the other side here, line was -7.
Sacrameto/Detroit - Under 195 - Detroit has one of the worst offenses in the NBA. They also have a slow pace and have only allowed 98 ppg. Sacramento has problems scoring without Cousins. In six of their last 8, they didn't score more than 96 in regulation. I see this one as a low scoring affair.
Placed the following bets:
735 to win 700 on Portland -5 -105
770 to win 700 on Sac -5.5 (got extra 1/2 point here on Bovada)
770 to win 700 on Sac/Detroit Under 195
Houston/Denver is off the board on Bovada.
Just went back on the board at Bovada.
Bet 770 to win 700 on BOTH
Houston -7.5
Houston/Den - Under 204
So that's 5 bets today.
Hope it works out.
58-38 Por at half.
Bet Indiana -3.5 in 2nd half, trying to middle this.
So far, not good on that half bet.
Por jumps out another 7, but maybe trash time will take this down to 16 where I need it.
Despite the bad start to the 2nd half, the rest of the game went exactly as I hoped/expected.
95-85 Portland, so I won both the initial pick and the halftime bet.
http://i702.photobucket.com/albums/w...6686008009.jpg
After starting off terribly (down 32-21), Houston came roaring back, finishing out the half on a 33-16 run. 54-48 at halftime. My under of 204 is looking marginal, with the game on pace for exactly 204.
Right now Hou 74-64 with 2 min left in the 3rd.
PLEASE hold (both under and Hou).
Houston wins 108-96.
Spread pick wins, under ties. Under looked screwed but nobody scored in the last minute or so, and tie was preserved.
Clinched a winning day at 3-0-1 so far.
Detroit/Sac tied up at 27 with 10 min left in the 2nd.
My fevered dreams of a 5-0-1 day are going to need a bit of help.
67-60 nearing the end of the 3rd.
Under looking good, but Sac needs to win by 6, which is a longshot at this point.
You were right, garett. My Sac/Det spread pick was "less than marginal", even though I liked it at the time. I felt if they could hang with a good Houston team for 4 quarters, they could crush 4-20 Detroit, especially while at home.
Nope.
What an embarrassment of a team. They really do suck balls without Cousins.
At least I was totally right about the under. A Cousins-free Sac team and a horrible-scoring Detroit team was indeed likely to yield fewer than 195 points.
It's 88-79 Det with 34 seconds left. I think I can declare this a split and chalk the day up to 4-1-1.
Overall record now 28-21-3.
Going to try a 10 point teaser again this week for the early games and rolling with this:
12/14/2014 - ONLINE at 03:03 AM
[Ticket #: 194891220] 3 Team Football Teaser 10 points
12/14/2014 @ 10:00 AM NFL [305] TOTAL o31˝-110 (B+10)
(OAKLAND vrs KANSAS CITY)
12/14/2014 @ 10:00 AM NFL [307] JACKSONVILLE +24-116 (B+10)
12/14/2014 @ 10:00 AM NFL [311] TOTAL o39-110 (B+10)
(HOUSTON vrs INDIANAPOLIS)
Cleveland vs. Cinci OVER 44 @ (-100)
Pretty awesome for even money... Would have posted this in that workers party thread, but seems to have died off. Know most you all read this too so...
And nice run last night druff, at first glance the Det/Sac selection just kinda confused me a bit given Cousins was out etc.
SF (+10)...what am I missing here? that seems like an insane amount of points to be giving a competent team...
several weeks ago, when Seattle was struggling, it came out in the press that they had a "come to Jesus" moment, and all the team leaders met to go over, and put away their issues for the year. They have totally refocused and are determined to win the superbowl.
SF on the other hand, is spiraling. Coach issues, QB issues, and no focus on football, just the crap surrounding them.
Just me, but I would play Seattle at home on this one.
In Chicago, their own QB coach sold out Cutler to the press, and the stories have been ugly all week. The guy was weeping in the locker room. Cutler tried to cover for him, but the reality is that the coach has lost this team at this point. They dont have much to play for now. Guys probably will not give their "all", as they dont want to get hurt and have no shot at the postseason. New Orleans (do they still, numerically, have a shot at the playoffs?) is progressing. Its not even "Bear Weather" over here this weekend...its going to be in the 40's. N.O. FTW.
I just can't pass this up.
Packers -2.5 1H
That blocked FG must be pissing you off right about now.Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerAndPoker
Yeah they better make it up on this drive especially cause Crosby has the leg to nail 53 yarders all day long.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hockey GuyThat blocked FG must be pissing you off right about now.Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerAndPoker
FUCK! They got to punt.
LOL Johnny Football. What a tard.
Just FYI, teasers are a terrrrrrrrrrible value unless you follow those very specific 'Wong" rules, and nowadays even that's not +EV due to reduced odds.Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerAndPoker
That's why advantage bettors got away with the +EV Wong teasers for so long. The house figured, "Teasers are such a big edge for us, how could anyone possibly beat it?"
I don't play them that often anymore but have the past few weeks where I've played one a week.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffJust FYI, teasers are a terrrrrrrrrrible value unless you follow those very specific 'Wong" rules, and nowadays even that's not +EV due to reduced odds.Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerAndPoker
That's why advantage bettors got away with the +EV Wong teasers for so long. The house figured, "Teasers are such a big edge for us, how could anyone possibly beat it?"
I was 2-1 but now will be 2-2 so yeah I will be down the 20% vig each time for 0.8 units once I lose this one which was looking like a lock at half time then no scoring in the Houston/Indy game in the second half.
GO BILLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Two picks today.
Lakers/Minnesota - Over 212.5 - There was a similar (but higher) line on November 28th, and these two defense-challenged teams scored 239 points. On average, the Lakers have allowed 110 points, and Minnesota has allowed 109. So why is the line only 212.5? Both teams have had a bit of an issue scoring recently. Minnesota was held to 86 by Golden State, 82 by Portland, and 92 by OKC. In fact, in the 8 games since that Lakers meeting, the Wolves have scored over 101 in regulation just once. The Lakers went 5 straight games without scoring 100, until finally putting 101 up in regulation last time out. So that's the reason for the reduced line. However, both teams are still giving up a lot of points, and now they're facing each other. So it's not that their defense has improved -- they just aren't scoring as much against teams that can play defense. These are two fast-paced, low-defense squads, and I like a line like 212.5. This is also a fairly even matchup, so OT is also a possibility.
Toronto -7 -105 at New York - Toronto has continued to roll despite missing DeRozan, only seemingly having trouble with Cleveland (who beat them twice). The Knicks dropped 10 in a row before finally punching out Boston last night. But Boston (7-14) is a far cry from Toronto (17-6), and I see a return to their losing ways. The line started as -5.5 but has moved to -7, but I still like it.
I bet Toronto -6.5 (770 to win 700) on Bovada.
Lakers/Min is 213, so I will wait. Bovada doesn't do half points in O/U games (not sure why), so they will use the -105/-115 thing to compensate for that. However, right now it's 213 -110 there, so I'll wait. Public money has favored under here, so I don't expect it to go up.
If you wagered on the number of buttholes eaten today at Ford Field, and the over/under was 1, you pushed
http://deadspin.com/butthole-eaten-a...ate-1670931368
lmao you just beat me to thisQuote:
Originally Posted by DRK Star
Lions playing for first place, down 14-0 to the fucking vikings.
rofl
Stafford looking worse than usual, apparently he had a cold all week.
Golden Tate with the TD braj you should have played him in fantasy.Quote:
Originally Posted by lewfather
Shoutout to Teddy Bridgewater lol another INT.
Tate only has 9 points so far BTW, Roddy White ended up with like 18.8. Not that he doesn't stand a chance to beat that out but the Vikings gifted that TD.
Got Lakers/Min over 213 -105.
Just fired 805 to win 700 on Was 2nd half -9 -115.
They are down 42-37 at the half against awful Utah. I don't see it staying that way.
splitting hairs here but Roddy White ended up with 18.8 and Tate finished with 17.Quote:
Originally Posted by BeerAndPokerGolden Tate with the TD braj you should have played him in fantasy.Quote:
Originally Posted by lewfather
Don't think it'll matter anyways, I'm already up and I still have Forte, Alshon, Jordan Matthews and Mark Ingram.
I don't know how to post animated gifs from my iPad but that savage/foster nonhandoff should be a :thing
which one lolQuote:
Originally Posted by varys
Washington halftime bet looking like a lock.
Of the blowout halftime variety, I'm gonna go with Phoenix -2, who is losing 70-48 at the half to okc.
Toronto up by 7 in OT, NY sinks meaningless shot with 6 secs left.
:gay
Lost other two, as well.
1-3 day
29-24-3 is my record now.
Ugly day yesterday.
Boston -5 at Philly - Boston isn't a good team They're 7-14, and they just lost to the lowly knicks. However, the 76ers are the worst team in the NBA (2-21), and I like a line as low as -5 against them. The 76ers are getting credit for taking the tough Grizzlies to OT (and losing) on Saturday, but this is still a really bad team, and Boston should crush them.
Boston/Philly - Under 205.5 - The 76ers scored fewer than 80 points in 3 of their last 6 games. Not just fewer than 90 or 100, but fewer than 80! They are capable of the occasional high scoring output, such as Saturday night's 109 in regulation against Detroit. But that's much more the exception than the rule. Philly is last in the NBA in scoring. Boston has improved defensively, allowing fewer than 100 points in regulation in 4 of their last 6 contests. I really like such a high total here, as this has a lot of ingredients for a low or average scoring affair.
Lakers/Indiana - Under 199.5 - Indiana has scored the following in their last 8 games (all losses): 97, 99, 82, 101 (OT), 92, 96, 94, 85. Not a single regulation game of 100 or more. The Lakers, once a guaranteed high scorer, has had trouble putting up big numbers lately. They've gone 7 straight games with 101 or fewer points in regulation. Lakers are also back-to-back on the road. This looks like it will go well under 200.
Bet 880 to win 800 on Boston.
Not going for the two unders yet, as the Bovada line is 1/2 point worse than it should be in both cases. Bovada doesn't do half points, but they make up for it with -105, and they haven't done that yet.
Dudes what did Mike Malone really do to get fired at Sacramento? My Kings fan buddy told me this and I instantly told them that their must be more to the story. My first guess was he fucked an owners daughter or grand daughter and wasn't granted the Phill Jackson Buss ticket.
Combination of the Maloofs not liking him much and the 2-7 run they're on.
Ownership is too out of touch to understand how much Cousins means to this team. They just assume that when the team loses 7 of 9, including 3 to bad teams, it's time to fire someone.
Really unfair, but that's coaching/managing for you. You often get fucked when things aren't going well, and too much credit when they are.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
With all due respect he absolutely fucked up in a bad way that hasn't been reported on yet. This doesn't happen. I forgot the Maloofs still owned them. I'm also not buying them not recognizing Cousins importance. If anyone should have been fired at anytime for basketball reasons it should have been when they agreed to pay Rudy Gay. He's fun to watch but I wouldn't want him to be the go to guy down the stretch on my team.
The Maloofs dont own the kings anymore
On May 16, 2013, the Maloof family reached agreement to sell the Sacramento Kings to a group led by Silicon Valley tech entrepreneur Vivek Ranadivé for a record NBA franchise valuation of $535 million.
Quote:
Originally Posted by chinamaniac
yeah yeah yeah something like that was in the back of my head but I disregarded because I don't fact check druff. Does Vivek have any attractive daughters or grand daughters? I still have an out for being right.