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and you expect me to believe DJT lost the 2020 election... he would win the 2024 election EASILY if it wasn't rigged... they won't let him win, they already told you that... embrace for Kamalism it's the global agenda...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9h36O11Ua4
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
Even though this pollster is reliably accurate, the MSM will dismiss it, because it does not have a network associated with it such as ABC, CBS, etc..Quote:
Originally Posted by VaughnP
https://x.com/MorganColby_FF/status/1840195363967308270
This and the Gallup results alone make any odds or election model with Trump down all that more ridiculous. Their average error in the swing states last time was 1.34, not biased to any side.
Even my man Tony, a diehard Walz supporter, can even admit this is a disaster for Kamala/Walz
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/184...a39cae48953897
BREAKING NEWS: KAMALA INTERNAL POLL LEAKED. BREAKING: Kamala Harris “underwater” in Michigan against Trump in internal polling, according to Democratic Senate candidate Elissa Slotkin: “We have her underwater in our polling.”
Michigan is definitely one of the states where the election is gonna be rigged...
He is going to WIN!
New General election poll - Pennsylvania 🔴 Trump 48% (+3) 🔵 Harris 45% Trafalgar #C - 1090 LV - 9/29
The dam is starting to break. Ohio and IN which were purple 20 years ago are now deep red, like Alabama deep red. MI and WI are the next two to flip. The Teamsters backing Trump 2:1 is all you need to know. It's Trump country now in the midwest. As far as Minnesota, it would not surprise me if that flips as well. There is a reason Trump is avoiding a second debate, he does not need it.
Democrat warns Kamala Harris her polling is ‘underwater’ in Michigan
A Democrat running for Senate in Michigan has warned Kamala Harris her internal polling is ‘underwater’ in one of the states critical to her chance of victory.
Rep. Elissa Slotkin told donors last week she wasn’t feeling her ‘best’ about the numbers in the Great Lake State, according to video obtained by Axios.
‘I'm not feeling my best right now about where we are on Kamala Harris in a place like Michigan,’ she said during a virtual fundraiser with Senator Cory Booker.
Slotkin is running against former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers in one of the most closely watched Senate contests in the country.
The outcome will be a crucial factor in determining which party has control of the upper chamber from January 2025.
For Harris, Michigan provides one of the simplest paths to victory along with other Blue Wall states including Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
If Trump sweeps the Sun Belt states, Harris would need to pick up at least one to have a chance of taking the White House.
Trying to understand how these GOP Senate candidates are running so far behind Trump in swing states. I understand Lake is unlikeable in AZ but Sam Brown is a great veteran candidate in NV but is running 10-12 points behind Trump. Same with PA and OH.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
I might refer you to the *** Official Republican CIVIL WAR Thread *** for remedial studyQuote:
Originally Posted by The Boz
She is polling 6.5 points worse than Biden at this point. Expect two or three Kamala +4-6 polls to be released by Thursday morning.
Tony, Tony, Tony... I know you are a huge Walz supporter, but can you explain this one?
North Carolina: Trump vs. Harris East Carolina U.
Trump 49, Harris 47
Trump +2
Hey Tgal, do you spend more time everyday searching for polls that confirm your bias, or more time sniffing Jewdonk’s balls?Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
So let me ask you this from a gambling standpoint. If most of the key numbers are shifting towards Trump and it is looking more and more likely he will win the election why are all the sports betting sites showing Harris as a slight favorite.
These guys are not in the business of losing $$ so of its as rosy as you say I would expect the odds to have “jumped the fence” (make Trump the favorite) by now.
You give bettors too much credit, you really do. The day before the 2016 election, Trump was a 90-10 dog again Clinton. In 2020 Trump was a 64-35 dog against Biden and barely lost. So I don't get your point. Bettors lose all the time, in fact you can make the case they always lose outside a handful of sharps but even they lose over time. The trend is your friend, and Trump only need to carrys the south, which he almost certainly will this go around. That leave one rustbelt state. I was in Wisconsin recently and he will win that going away. There were thousands of Trump signs and like 4 Harris/Walz signs. It's not anecdotal either, the blue collar worker is firmly with Trump this go around. When the Teamsters outpoll the Dems 2:1 its over in the midwest. It's probably 4:1 if people are honest, try to find a trucker voting for Harris.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by tgull
So let me ask you this from a gambling standpoint. If most of the key numbers are shifting towards Trump and it is looking more and more likely he will win the election why are all the sports betting sites showing Harris as a slight favorite.
These guys are not in the business of losing $$ so of its as rosy as you say I would expect the odds to have “jumped the fence” (make Trump the favorite) by now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgullYou give bettors too much credit, you really do. The day before the 2016 election, Trump was a 90-10 dog again Clinton. In 2020 Trump was a 64-35 dog against Biden and barely lost. So I don't get your point. Bettors lose all the time, in fact you can make the case they always lose outside a handful of sharps but even they lose over time. The trend is your friend, and Trump only need to carrys the south, which he almost certainly will this go around. That leave one rustbelt state. I was in Wisconsin recently and he will win that going away. There were thousands of Trump signs and like 4 Harris/Walz signs. It's not anecdotal either, the blue collar worker is firmly with Trump this go around. When the Teamsters outpoll the Dems 2:1 its over in the midwest. It's probably 4:1 if people are honest, try to find a trucker voting for Harris.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Last thing in the world I do is give bettors credit.
I do however give credit to the people who set lines.
I don't disagree with a lot of the stuff you have posted and appreciate your thoughts on what it might mean. That said I am surprised we haven't seen Trump become the favorite.
I still don’t understand not taking the +250 on a Trump win and a Harris popular vote win if you are betting Trump.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by tgull
Last thing in the world I do is give bettors credit.
I do however give credit to the people who set lines.
I don't disagree with a lot of the stuff you have posted and appreciate your thoughts on what it might mean. That said I am surprised we haven't seen Trump become the favorite.
I have never bet an election on a sportsbook. I assume the answer is no because everyone understands correlation, but the books who offer each state, you can't parlay a bunch of states together, right? Like it feels like if you get similar polling errors to last 2 elections that you could string a bunch of swing states together into 4 and 5 state parlays. I don't imagine they allow for that as it seems obvious, and they aren't in business of offering good deals. I was just curious last time I looked at pinnacle, which has it dead even for the generalQuote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by tgull
Last thing in the world I do is give bettors credit.
I do however give credit to the people who set lines.
I don't disagree with a lot of the stuff you have posted and appreciate your thoughts on what it might mean. That said I am surprised we haven't seen Trump become the favorite.
I'll give you this, elections (at least in the US) in just about every event, break about a week in advance. I said this before, but internal polling is just better because they have unlimited funds, versus say ABC or Fox News which have a budget. There is no budget in each party. My point is if you see Trump in North Carolina the week before the election, he is likely going to lose. If you see Harris in Michigan the week before the election she is going to lose. Both in PA, yeah its a dead heat. We will see, but momentum is on Trump's side, but there is always an October Surprise. Trump is not a saint for sure, but Harris is not Mother Theresa either, fuck she had an affair at age 29 with a 61 year married old man. How seedy is that?Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by tgull
Last thing in the world I do is give bettors credit.
I do however give credit to the people who set lines.
I don't disagree with a lot of the stuff you have posted and appreciate your thoughts on what it might mean. That said I am surprised we haven't seen Trump become the favorite.