*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

I posted it so it's going to count on my record, but the line just dropped abruptly from 237 to 235.5 on the Indiana game, so that scares me and I'm not betting it myself.

FYI

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Originally Posted by Tellafriend

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Okay, at the risk of starting a major slump, here are a few totals for you. Two start at 5:10pm PT.

Cleveland vs Chicago - Under 239.5 -115 (239 -110 ok)
New Orelans at San Antonio - Under 223.5 -110
Indiana at Denver - Over 237 -110

Bonus side pick:
Indiana +10.5 -105 at Denver

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my book just took indiana off board for a few minutes and now reposted +9.5 o/u 235.5 still a go or no go now?

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Okay I see now what happened.

https://www.si.com/nba/pacers/onsi/n...r-nuggets-game

Andrew Nembhard was announced as a surprise return tonight.

That shifted the line. I still like the +9.5 but I'm backing away from the O/U.

Well this sucks.

Looks like all 4 might lose.

Chicago under is dead.

New Orleans under had a bad first half but then was almost on pace, but now it’s in trouble again.

Indiana getting crushed. I definitely wouldn’t have picked over based upon that change, but I posted it minutes before the announcement. Didn’t bet it but maybe some of you did.

Guess I gotta hope Pacers catch the spread in trash time.

:fail

I hang my head in shame.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

I hang my head in shame.

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Do you suspect cheating?

The less said about yesterday's NBA performance, the better. In a little of my defense, my double pick on the Indiana game was thrown off at the last minute by the surprise roster move.

Anyway, here's a total I like.

At first glance, the Browns/Jets game looks like a low scoring shitshow, especially in the 10 mph wind.

However, note this. Browns games have beaten 37 points in 5 of 8 contests, and Jets games have seeing scoring over 40 in 6 of 8, including four over 55.

The Jets defense has been terrible, ranking 30th. They've also traded Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams. Browns defense has been great at home, but oddly bad on the road (where they are here).

Most importantly, BetMGM reports that the 4th most bet total is Cleveland under, which started at 37.5, moved to 38, and is back at 37.5. Ploppies don't like betting under, but they love this one because the two teams are bad, yet the Browns have a reputation for strong defense.

You don't need a huge scoring fest to win this one. A score like 21-17 will get it done.


Cleveland at NY Jets - Over 37.5 -110

Now if you want an under with two not-so-good teams, I give you the surprising 5-4 Panthers and the horrendous Saints.

Do you know that neither team has scored over 16 points in their past 3 contests?

Carolina vs New Orleans - Under 38.5 -110

Now those were two quality totals picks.

:uhhuh

Lions and Seahawks games are crazy mirror image games. Both 41-22 a few minutes ago. Onside kick same. If Lions kick FG they will both be 44-22 again.

i like Phil +1 tonight. i got them earlier in week at 1.5. just eyeball type shit. week off likely helped them too. they are more consistent in all areas of game. gb can be anyone's guess. gonna be cold, but so what. also like 1h Phil ev. GL

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Originally Posted by Sheesfaced

Current DK odds have Drake -200, followed by Isaac Collins at +155. Next closest is Agustin Ramirez at +1500. Historically this award massively favors hitters over pitchers. Last year a pitcher won it in each league, but even including that going back the last 10 years only 4 of the 19 winners were pitchers. I didn’t include Ohtani since he was both. The previous decade was better as 8 out of 20 were pitchers but the decade before that only 2 out of 20 were pitchers.

So there’s a pretty good reason the top three odds are all hitters. And Ramirez has the third best odds with a negative WAR. Baldwin could certainly slump down the stretch, but he’s a top 100 prospect that has hit at every level and despite sharing catching and DH duties the Braves will give him plenty of playing time the rest of the way.

Isaac Collins plays for the Brewers so he has that going for him in that they are the feel good story of the NL, but he’s also 28. Age isn’t supposed to matter in terms of ROY but I can’t help but wonder if it does. It’s a pretty interesting story though as he was unheralded and was a minor league rule 5 draft selection by the Brewers. He’s come out of no where to be in the ROY hunt.

I do think there’s good value in the SP’s you guys have mentioned but it’s just harder to win it as a SP. A good example of that is in 2022 when Michael Harris won it over Spencer Strider. Not playing everyday hurts.

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Bump. Drake Baldwin wins ROY and it wasn’t even that close. It’s tough to win ROY as a pitcher.

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Originally Posted by Sheesfaced

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Originally Posted by Sheesfaced

Current DK odds have Drake -200, followed by Isaac Collins at +155. Next closest is Agustin Ramirez at +1500. Historically this award massively favors hitters over pitchers. Last year a pitcher won it in each league, but even including that going back the last 10 years only 4 of the 19 winners were pitchers. I didn’t include Ohtani since he was both. The previous decade was better as 8 out of 20 were pitchers but the decade before that only 2 out of 20 were pitchers.

So there’s a pretty good reason the top three odds are all hitters. And Ramirez has the third best odds with a negative WAR. Baldwin could certainly slump down the stretch, but he’s a top 100 prospect that has hit at every level and despite sharing catching and DH duties the Braves will give him plenty of playing time the rest of the way.

Isaac Collins plays for the Brewers so he has that going for him in that they are the feel good story of the NL, but he’s also 28. Age isn’t supposed to matter in terms of ROY but I can’t help but wonder if it does. It’s a pretty interesting story though as he was unheralded and was a minor league rule 5 draft selection by the Brewers. He’s come out of no where to be in the ROY hunt.

I do think there’s good value in the SP’s you guys have mentioned but it’s just harder to win it as a SP. A good example of that is in 2022 when Michael Harris won it over Spencer Strider. Not playing everyday hurts.

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Bump. Drake Baldwin wins ROY and it wasn’t even that close. It’s tough to win ROY as a pitcher.

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Tough beat. Horton deserved it.

Odds on Horton went at or near -200 at one point near the end of the season, before Baldwin had a nice finish. That was some value pick on my part at +3500. I didn't hedge it because I could only get down $35.

A look at the Sacramento Kings shows they don't play defense.

Points allowed last 6 games: 126, 133, 130, 116, 132, 144

But will the Kings get blown out? That's what happened on November 7, where they barely failed to over the over despite giving up 132.

The Nuggets are -8 and on the road. When they last met 8 days ago, it was 130-124. I don't love high overs, but I think this one will hit.

Sacramento vs Denver - Over 243.5 -110

Doing everything wrong in the NBA suddenly.

Tonight I had two I was considering -- Utah over and Sac over. I decided to pass on Utah because it was two struggling teams against one another, and it's hard to count on a lot of points in that situation. So I went with Sac.

:baddecision

Good 1st quarter (67), but then the scoring died. My one hope was that the close score would lead to OT, but then Sac shit the bed in the 4th and it's a 16 point lead for Denver. So no OT either.

Chicago -2.5 at Detroit

Giddey OUT, Duren/Cunningham/Stewart/Thompson OUT

Starting at 4:10 PT

Dallas vs Phoenix - Under 228.5

Davis/Lively OUT

GSW ML +150

Do yourself a favor and find a few coins under the couch and drop it on Kuchar to win pga this week. Shpuld he able to find 37-1 out there

in


Odds to win Butterfield Bermuda ChampionshipMatt Kuchar +3300

I gave up on the Bulls, down 89-69 in the late 3rd.

Then they went on a huge run and got to 97-94 in the early-mid 4th, but now are fading again.

Why do NBA teams always do this after epic comebacks? It's like they run out of steam right when they get there.