if youre not short $RIOT you basically dont deserve money.
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if youre not short $RIOT you basically dont deserve money.
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Originally Posted by sonatine
pls elaborate for us neophytes
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Originally Posted by Dan DruffYup, as I expected, the non-momentary breaching of the $100 psychological barrier is the start of a second crash.Quote:
Originally Posted by garrett
Wish there were a way to short these things.
Always good to read history. At the time this was a valid point
Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
pls elaborate for us neophytes
I think it broke a lot of support when the stock price fell below $15.
Im not saying its a bad play but not sure Id feel good shorting anything in this space
Just buy a little IBIT, DR. Safe and easy.Quote:
Originally Posted by desertrunner
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
I think it broke a lot of support when the stock price fell below $15.
Im not saying its a bad play but not sure Id feel good shorting anything in this space
+$2.52 (+16.97%)Today
holy shit i stand corrected
their fundamentals are hilariously shaky was my point but sometimes i guess thats just not relevant.
It's "priced in" LOLQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by Daly
+$2.52 (+16.97%)Today
holy shit i stand corrected
their fundamentals are hilariously shaky was my point but sometimes i guess thats just not relevant.
Bitcoin on Fire close to 60k again which brings the ATH back into question now, ETFs haven't hurt
ATH break is all but a foregone conclusion IMHO.
Now it just the matter of what the next one will be.
Its time to think about when to exit and short.
60k now. Hard to believe this doesn’t collapse but at same time I don’t get the sense the media or general population really talking about this so you have to wonder if a lot of casuals about to jump in.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BetCheckBet
For something that went from 19k to 60k where marketing is key its been relatively quiet. Even the Twitter brigade has been quiet. Two years ago a move like this would have my feed filled with “have fun staying poor”.
I dont think it will collapse. I think it goes on to all time high. The halving will cause a bit of a supply shock which is starting to price in. Then a month or three afterwards the market will adjust and my guess is its back to a higher low. Maybe 40k this time. Something higher than 18k.
Then the process repeats
The etf's seem like a huge factor. It is now safe and easy to buy btc in almost any brokerage account. You need not open a new account or a wallet you just buy shares which are held in a bank. I'm personally loaded up with IBIT and Coinbase.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by BetCheckBet
For something that went from 19k to 60k where marketing is key its been relatively quiet. Even the Twitter brigade has been quiet. Two years ago a move like this would have my feed filled with “have fun staying poor”.
I dont think it will collapse. I think it goes on to all time high. The halving will cause a bit of a supply shock which is starting to price in. Then a month or three afterwards the market will adjust and my guess is its back to a higher low. Maybe 40k this time. Something higher than 18k.
Then the process repeats
Quote:
Originally Posted by country978The etf's seem like a huge factor. It is now safe and easy to buy btc in almost any brokerage account. You need not open a new account or a wallet you just buy shares which are held in a bank. I'm personally loaded up with IBIT and Coinbase.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
some bank just announced its shifting its portfolio guidance to include 1-3% crypto exposure. probably not super relevant here but who knows.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by country978
some bank just announced its shifting its portfolio guidance to include 1-3% crypto exposure. probably not super relevant here but who knows.
Im sure we are hours if not a day or three away from Pocahontas Warren or some other bad actor declaring ownership a criminal offense or some such followed by a 15% price crash. Again not a matter of if but when.
61.5. Ath 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Kind of an interesting split today.
You would have made $$ short Riot today. My small miner play HUT too. Both down ~10%
The ETF and microstrategy (lets face it, its a BTC ETF at this point) were up 10%.
Miners not following the underlying commodity. Reminds me of the days when gold would be up 10% on a fed announcement and the miners would be even or down. This is why I dont want to own coinbase or any other derivative plays.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Kind of an interesting split today.
You would have made $$ short Riot today. My small miner play HUT too. Both down ~10%
The ETF and microstrategy (lets face it, its a BTC ETF at this point) were up 10%.
Miners not following the underlying commodity. Reminds me of the days when gold would be up 10% on a fed announcement and the miners would be even or down. This is why I dont want to own coinbase or any other derivative plays.
theres size moving into 'short $coin / long btc' positions as well.
Worth the 6 minutes
So i think there will be ups and downs for the next “40 to 42 quarters” but long term it all makes sense. I think the days of buying at $100 and selling at 10K are over. I do think you may be able to buy, hold for a tripple and sell at the top several times between now and November of 2034
https://x.com/neiljacobs/status/1763...gHUJr6eifBLymg
Sonatine started this thread when Bitcoin was $250.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Small_Banana
and i'll end it when its $250 again.
btw daly a lot of institutional money cant get into the ETFs because theres a 90 day maturation phase / lockout window before they can ape.
110k isnt an unrealistic number.
Collapse correction not likely until the halving of the reward happens in the next 2 weeks at least.Quote:
Originally Posted by BetCheckBet
I’ll give ya this your persistent Tine but I’m afraid we will both be dead before BTC drops back to $250. Closest we’ve seen was when it dropped to ETHs current valuation range early in Bidens presidency. Given there are countries now involved actually in owning it. I don’t think the likely hood will become reality of it even getting back to $1000.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by Small_Banana
and i'll end it when its $250 again.
btw daly a lot of institutional money cant get into the ETFs because theres a 90 day maturation phase / lockout window before they can ape.
110k isnt an unrealistic number.
no lies detected but 2 things can kill it overnight; an significant exploit or a better mousetrap being forked. not implying my point isnt obvious and hasnt been made before of course. but the past criticisms of btc were ever solved, they were just ignored.Quote:
Originally Posted by ftpjesusI’ll give ya this your persistent Tine but I’m afraid we will both be dead before BTC drops back to $250. Closest we’ve seen was when it dropped to ETHs current valuation range early in Bidens presidency. Given there are countries now involved actually in owning it. I don’t think the likely hood will become reality of it even getting back to $1000.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
:cosbyQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatineno lies detected but 2 things can kill it overnight; an significant exploit or a better mousetrap being forked. not implying my point isnt obvious and hasnt been made before of course. but the past criticisms of btc were ever solved, they were just ignored.Quote:
Originally Posted by ftpjesus
So i am as long term (reasonably) bullish as anyone.
The problem with all “da maths” these HODLErs conjure to say the price should be $850k or 2M or whatever it is has one fundamental flaw.
At some pont between here and 2M is there are 15 Million coins that are owned for 40K or much much less.
That means someone who has even 3.25 coins in his wallet can sell one of them and get enough money to buy a house, a fully loaded Escalade and a 2 week trip to Aruba at $500K.
15 Million people need to pass on that sale for the price to rise above that.
Not saying that cant happen over the next ten years but its taken 15M people who bought sub $100 to pass on selling 2 at 50K and buying the escalade.
Thats what i mean by the compression of price swing. This time it may 3-5x next swing its probably 2-4x
Is it?Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by Small_Banana
and i'll end it when its $250 again.
btw daly a lot of institutional money cant get into the ETFs because theres a 90 day maturation phase / lockout window before they can ape.
110k isnt an unrealistic number.
I mean your point is spot on and you know every money man with a stock account is front running the institutional buy.
Maybe it does hit $110K wouldn't be shocked to see a large exit selling to institutions. May cause a stall.
Good to think about.
odds an administration decides to make it illegal to transact with it?
if so, price then?
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Originally Posted by DalyIs it?Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
I mean your point is spot on and you know every money man with a stock account is front running the institutional buy.
Maybe it does hit $110K wouldn't be shocked to see a large exit selling to institutions. May cause a stall.
Good to think about.
at first i was thinking that a sell off because 'priced in etc' was inevitable but i think the most likely result at this point is just total and utter stagnation. just months and months of chop.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BetCheckBet
We just breached the weekly high of $65,450 give or take.
The second by second ATH in dollars is $68,999.99 we arent far off from that. My guess is tomorrow but this thing has gone straight up
Doge coin also having second rally
For whatever its worth I sold my MTSR position. Proceeds will likely get reinvested in FBTC/GBTC once I get comfortable with which way the market is going from here. Its been a very profitable month I am ok with locking in the win on this part of the investment.
MTSR is now ~10B more than its bitcoin holdings/Debt. I don't think the street feels the core business is worth 10B. Whats likely happening here is a short squeeze of giant proportions.
Nothing wrong with holding here, its not even what I am scared of. With this big a premium I could very easily see Saylor waking up and issuing 10b worth of shares on the market and going out and buying 150,000 bitcoin with it. Now that would be great as a BTC holder, but as a stockholder he is trading your premium for more bitcoin. I could see this happen easily.
Lol - i have taken a lot of bows over the years in the wagering thread for making predictions. This one unfolded in 3 hours
TYSONS CORNER, Va., March 04, 2024--(BUSINESS WIRE)--MicroStrategy® Incorporated (Nasdaq: MSTR) ("MicroStrategy") today announced that it intends to offer, subject to market conditions and other factors, $600 million aggregate principal amount of convertible senior notes due 2030 (the "notes") in a private offering to persons reasonably believed to be qualified institutional buyers in reliance on Rule 144A under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act"). MicroStrategy also expects to grant to the initial purchasers of the notes an option to purchase, within a 13-day period beginning on, and including, the date on which the notes are first issued, up to an additional $90 million aggregate principal amount of the notes. The offering is subject to market and other conditions, and there can be no assurance as to whether, when or on what terms the offering may be completed.
China and the CCP tried that. Didn’t do much other than a brief drop. The US Govt has a shit history trying to control the masses from getting ahead. They’re determined to protect the masses from themselves when it comes to trading rules as far as day trading etc including now putting the screws to people being able to work for prop trading firms.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tellafriend
Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyQuote:
Originally Posted by BetCheckBet
We just breached the weekly high of $65,450 give or take.
The second by second ATH in dollars is $68,999.99 we arent far off from that. My guess is tomorrow but this thing has gone straight up
Didn't even realize it but apparently we crossed the ATH for .000000001 seconds before it got killed two days ago.
$69.9k new all time high.
Got pounded after that.
Thats two ath in this week.
Should be an interesting fight here. If it breaks out who the hell knows what the top is.
Someone check on Tine this AM.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
https://twitter.com/KermitTheFrog/st...29272525103174
$boden carry btc
https://twitter.com/OldRowSwig/statu...13051277640044
Interesting to see how little coverage this is getting in mainstream media.