*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

Marlins @ Cubs over 7.5 starts in about 4 hrs.

the line did open at 8, however this will be Ryan Weather's 2025 debut after suffering a forearm injury last year in September, Weather's only threw 54 pitches in his last rehab start in AAA and is not expected to go much more than that tonight, the Marlins bullpen sucks along with the Scrubbies bullpen sucking too, Jameson Taillon the sp for the Cubs can give up some runs at times too...Weathers is a lefty and the Cubs actually hit lefties better than righties .271/.245 the core of the Cubs lineup today hits Weathers at a .333 average lifetime, wind blowing in slightly at Wrigley tonight 3-5mph, i look for the Cubs to score a lot tonight and Miami should score a couple a runs themselves... anyways over 7.5 i like it....

Knicks ML

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

So I've decided I'm done with these road picks. Road teams just aren't performing well in 2025, and that's been the one black mark on what has otherwise been a good start to my MLB picking season.

Let's look at the Dodgers tonight.

Landon Knack is on the mound tonight. He looked kinda promising last year, but this year he's been quite inconsistent, and has been up and down from the minors. His best start came last time out --- but it was against the Marlins. Aside from a 2-inning stint against the Cubs in Japan, all of his innings have been against bad teams -- Washington, Colorado, Miami.

Today he will face a team which was supposed to be bad, but has been surprisingly competitive thus far. The Sacramento A's are amazingly 21-20, and most notably, they've put up 180 runs -- just 5 fewer than the vaunted Padres (who have played just 1 fewer game). They've hit the ball well lately, in general.

The A's pitching -- which has given up 218 runs -- has been their issue. Jeffrey Springs is one of those pitchers, and he's only had one truly good outing this season -- on May 1 against light-hitting Texas. He's managed to go 5 or 6 in most starts, but has given up 3+ just about every time.

You know where I'm going.

Sacramento (Springs) at Dodgers (Knack) - OVER 5 -115 - FIRST 5 INNINGS

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I was (technically AM, til my flight boards soon) in Vegas last couple days, and we were simpatico on baseball thoughts.

I had Skenes +140 before you posted. Typical Pirates garbage.

Had the a's-dodgers over 9.5 full. We both hit, a bit of a sweat for both of us.

I had Pacers +8 and got pissed after that i didn't take a 0.5 unit ML as well. Figured it was a coin flip. Ah well

Also was horribly wrong taking both hockey underdogs monday. So it goes.

A’s @ Doyers F5 u4.5 -115

Yoshi may not allow any and the A’s kid in his debut - kid is apparently legit. Doyers offense meh

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Originally Posted by gut

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

So I've decided I'm done with these road picks. Road teams just aren't performing well in 2025, and that's been the one black mark on what has otherwise been a good start to my MLB picking season.

Let's look at the Dodgers tonight.

Landon Knack is on the mound tonight. He looked kinda promising last year, but this year he's been quite inconsistent, and has been up and down from the minors. His best start came last time out --- but it was against the Marlins. Aside from a 2-inning stint against the Cubs in Japan, all of his innings have been against bad teams -- Washington, Colorado, Miami.

Today he will face a team which was supposed to be bad, but has been surprisingly competitive thus far. The Sacramento A's are amazingly 21-20, and most notably, they've put up 180 runs -- just 5 fewer than the vaunted Padres (who have played just 1 fewer game). They've hit the ball well lately, in general.

The A's pitching -- which has given up 218 runs -- has been their issue. Jeffrey Springs is one of those pitchers, and he's only had one truly good outing this season -- on May 1 against light-hitting Texas. He's managed to go 5 or 6 in most starts, but has given up 3+ just about every time.

You know where I'm going.

Sacramento (Springs) at Dodgers (Knack) - OVER 5 -115 - FIRST 5 INNINGS

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I was (technically AM, til my flight boards soon) in Vegas last couple days, and we were simpatico on baseball thoughts.

I had Skenes +140 before you posted. Typical Pirates garbage.

Had the a's-dodgers over 9.5 full. We both hit, a bit of a sweat for both of us.

I had Pacers +8 and got pissed after that i didn't take a 0.5 unit ML as well. Figured it was a coin flip. Ah well

Also was horribly wrong taking both hockey underdogs monday. So it goes.

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Great minds think alike.

I was SO pissed at myself for not looking at the Pacers game. I was too focused on baseball and other things in my personal life. Only after the game began did I look at the line and I shit myself. I would have 1000% taken the moneyline for a full bet, and been quite proud of myself. That was huge value. At least you got something out of it.

I am proud of myself for not taking KC yesterday, after swearing off evenish/small dog road teams. Sure enough they lost.

I really think the "over first 5 when both pitchers are shitty" line is a good one until the books adjust -- or at least during the early season when more shitty pitchers are likely to get regular reps.

There was a lot of money to be made on the Pacers this postseason, which I saw early, but only placed one bet on them. Sad!

Next time you are in LA/Vegas, let me know. If I'm around I would love to meet the man behind the gut account. Same invitation goes to Sanlmar and BCR, of course.

Was looking at Marlins first-5 but saw it's only +143, while the game is +182. Wow! I guess the books see it the way I do... that the Marlins have a fair chance to lead after 5 against Taillon (and with Weathers, who looked good in minors rehab), but their bullpen will probably blow the lead.

So I'm staying away.

But here's a pick I do like.

Who are the worst scoring teams? You'd probably guess Pittsburgh, White Sox, and Rockies as 3 of them, and you'd be right. But the 4th one is the Rangers, whose 22-21 record otherwise masks that sad fact.

Now imagine two of these teams facing each other. You don't have to. Texas/Colorado has resulted in 3 runs and 5 runs, over the last 2 days, respectively.

Today, we have a bad pitcher for Colorado in Antonio Senzatela and a surprisingly effective pitcher for Texas in Pat Corbin.

This is not going to be a first-5. The Rockies cannot score on the road, a longstanding problem which has been worse than ever this year. A full game under gives you the shot of still winning, even if the Rockies pitcher gets bombed early, as sometimes scoring shuts down if one team blasts out to a 7-0 lead early.

In any case, it's hard to turn down an under-9 with the Rockies on the road against a shit offense. I regret passing this up the last two days, when I considered it both times.

Colorado (Senzatela) at Texas (Corbin) - Under 9 -118

Was too slow to get Knicks +180 live and it fell to a favorite as they came back and took a lead. Ended up settling for +122 on Polymarket.

GL me

Boy Senzatela sucks. That was my one hesitation about betting under today. Notice I didn't do first 5!

2-0 already, 2 men on, zero outs.

I hesitated on Freeland yesterday and regretted it.

Well this live bet on the Knicks is a disaster. How can they lose here with no Tatum?

With an 8 point lead in the 2nd, no less. Awful.

The Knicks can't make a shot. If they do get past Boston, they are going to get absolutely stomped by Indiana playing like this.

@Druff said...

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Was looking at Marlins first-5 but saw it's only +143, while the game is +182. Wow! I guess the books see it the way I do... that the Marlins have a fair chance to lead after 5 against Taillon (and with Weathers, who looked good in minors rehab), but their bullpen will probably blow the lead.

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you were right about Marlins first 5, i thought Weathers 3 rehab assignments might of been a little skewed with him only throwing 54 pitches and less in all 3.... he was descent , he walked a couple, the Cubs did hit him hard a few times only to right at people, even had a few warning track shots, Suzuki did get to him on solo shot.... about the 3rd-4th inning this fucking fog comes in and by the 6th it is horrible, i mean i could come in and pitch and not allow any runs with this fog ( not really but you get my drift) i doubt there is anymore scoring with this fog... i mean it's that bad... seems like the camera crew had a hard time figuring out which lens(es) to use so you could get a decent picture through the tv lol.... again i doubt anymore scoring with this fog... i didn't see anything about this fog in the forecast.... anyways meh... 3-1 Marlins in the 8th...

PGA - Scottie 5/1

Seniors Region Tradition - Alker 9/1

KFT - Mitchell Meissner 25/1

LET Dutch - Kelsey Bennett 12/1

Sorry for late picks. Basically been treading water and hitting his enough to not kill bankroll lately Feel good about this week I know the course is built for Rory But as long as that putter doesn’t take a total 180 from two weeks ago… I think Scottie has the best chance. Been agonizingly close to some big scores as usual. Maybe can get one or two home Meissner would be nice.

Rory was not particularly sharp at Zurich and drove the ball poorly Sunday at the Truist He can certainly turn things around at Quail but I just think Scottie is going to beat him So betting Scottie over Rory in a matchup not a terrible idea

Toronto (Francis) +101 vs Detroit (Flaherty)

Starting 2 min

Starting 2 min

Angels Dodgers F5 BTTS 2 +140. Druff knows

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Originally Posted by Sanlmar

Starting 2 min

Angels Dodgers F5 BTTS 2 +140. Druff knows

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After 5 innings
Angels 4 - Dodgers 1

Was a good plus money bet. Dodgers had been sitting the top of the order after a couple at bats last few days and that likely fucked up their rhythm.

Load management 2025

Been scuffling a bit recently but here's back to the bread and butter -- first 5 overs with 2 lousy pitchers.

And the wind blowing out as a bonus (as much as 16mph)! How nice!


Landon Roupp and Luis Severino have not been good this year, especially over the past few weeks. The chance of either having a dominant outing is low. The chance of one or both getting bombed is not low. What's not to like here?

San Francisco (Roupp) vs Oakland (Severino) - Over 4.5 -115 FIRST 5 INNINGS

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Been scuffling a bit recently but here's back to the bread and butter -- first 5 overs with 2 lousy pitchers.

And the wind blowing out as a bonus (as much as 16mph)! How nice!


Landon Roupp and Luis Severino have not been good this year, especially over the past few weeks. The chance of either having a dominant outing is low. The chance of one or both getting bombed is not low. What's not to like here?

San Francisco (Roupp) vs Oakland (Severino) - Over 4.5 -115 FIRST 5 INNINGS

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A quick reminder that the wind blows out at 15-20 mph literally every day at Oracle Park, and the park was designed specifically to negate any effect from said wind. It’s Top 3 friendliest pitchers’ parks in the league (along with Seattle and Miami) and always will be regardless of wind speed/direction.

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Originally Posted by go_buccos

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Been scuffling a bit recently but here's back to the bread and butter -- first 5 overs with 2 lousy pitchers.

And the wind blowing out as a bonus (as much as 16mph)! How nice!


Landon Roupp and Luis Severino have not been good this year, especially over the past few weeks. The chance of either having a dominant outing is low. The chance of one or both getting bombed is not low. What's not to like here?

San Francisco (Roupp) vs Oakland (Severino) - Over 4.5 -115 FIRST 5 INNINGS

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A quick reminder that the wind blows out at 15-20 mph literally every day at Oracle Park, and the park was designed specifically to negate any effect from said wind. It’s Top 3 friendliest pitchers’ parks in the league (along with Seattle and Miami) and always will be regardless of wind speed/direction.

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I remember when ball park pal first rolled out. Considering weather 7 years ago was sharp stuff. That’s all BPP offered at the time and it made them a brand.

Yeah, Oracle Park data suckers people. I joke about the “swirls” now. Somewhere there is an animation that uses arrows to show the wind dynamics of that park.

Druff got a “swirly”.

Time for a White Sox home game.

Mainly because Seattle is throwing up a bullpen game, with a good opener but a lousy bulk reliever in Casey Lawrence.

The White Sox is trying out Adrian Houser, who had a 5 ERA in the minors in the Texas system, and was released. However, this was somewhat misleading, as he had a 1.13 WHIP and 37 K in 39 IP.

Worth a shot.

White Sox (Houser) +154 vs Seattle (bullpen)

Was I right about Doogie Houser, or what?

White Sox squeak by 1-0

Dodgers and I break our losing steaks on same night

:uhhuh