should of made it a 2 unit play? nah... just works out that way sometimes...Quote:
Originally Posted by 1dollarboxcar
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should of made it a 2 unit play? nah... just works out that way sometimes...Quote:
Originally Posted by 1dollarboxcar
NBA, CHA @ DAL under 222 ... under 221.5 is ok too...
Lamelo Ball just officially got scratched for the game and the line dove to 219ish... still good at 219/219.5...Quote:
Originally Posted by 1dollarboxcar
still loved this at under 222 even if Ball was gonna play... under 219 with no Ball was still a steal and borderline highway armed robbery... someone call the police!! we'll take another one... total was 199... we goin Sizzler...Quote:
Originally Posted by 1dollarboxcarLamelo Ball just officially got scratched for the game and the line dove to 219ish... still good at 219/219.5...Quote:
Originally Posted by 1dollarboxcar
late post, NBA... OkC @ ATL under 246.5
just won clams on clemson, and then lost clams on unc under i refuse to believe college goys can just crush 160 overs
we were literally fine at halftime and ok with 3 min left and they just bombed shots
posting it knowing kiss of death brooklyn det over 216 and its gonna make my weekend
Meant to go Charlotte under again but didn't get to it in time.
Bet live at 225.5 -115 which sucks because real line was 229 pregame.
Oh well.
Until Hornets prove they can score, I'm going to auto-fire under on them. Look at their last several games.
Lakers vs New Orleans - Under 229
Lakers totals since 2/19: 197, 212, 223, 206, 213, 208, 210
Brooklyn vs San Antonio - Over 229.5
I’ve been killing small time NCAA basketball. I wasn’t going to post one until I finally lost. I did last night by .5 a point when my team got outscored 15-6 down the stretch to lose by 3 when I had +2.5
I always like these small tourneys because the teams have already played twice in most cases and you can see trends.
I like Gardner Webb -5.5 today against some school called Upstate. Played twice. Today is opening game of their tournament at neutral venue. Game in TN. Gardner Webb in NC. Upstate in SC. Not in either’s backyard .
First game Gardner Webb won by 29 and clearly dominated them in all ways.
Second game @Upstate, Gardner Webb won by 9 despite a really poor 3 shooting performance and a good one from Upstate.
In both contests Gardner Webb dominated the boards by double digits. Shooting comes and goes, but if one team dominates the glass against the other in both games, that’s usually indicative of a mismatch.
That’s pretty much my entire process as these teams are all bad even by small school standards, but they get little attention and you can find spots a little better imo. Did a team shoot better or worse than expectation from 3 and rebounding.
This feels like a 12 point line if you just looked at previous games and relative strength.
As I said, these schools all suck, so buyer beware. but I am on them tonight at 730 est. Right now I got GW -5.5 -108.
Under Maryland - MI 155.5
$3,000
Yes, you take a chance in life.
Went 1-1 last night.
Glad I stayed away today from the Charlotte auto under.
Line moved from 220 to 227, so I knew this wasn't a smart bet. Right now there's 51 points in less than 9 minutes to start.
nice and easy, nice and easy.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
Yup this would've lost.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
It's generally against my policy to bet against steep line moves. It's especially against my policy to bet against reverse line movement (which this wasn't, but still.. this was a big move).
This was easy 20 point win. I really have fun with these obscure small college basketball games. Make me nostalgic for the early 90s when you didn't worry about what the books needed and lines weren't sharp and you just old fashion handicap games that no one is paying attention to with 300 people in the stands.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Many years ago, like 20 years ago I was on a huge downdraft. I just got killed on a MI football bet, and I went up to my bookie at a bar, semi-drunk, and said I wanted to put $500 on Bowling Green. He said I will give you the credit to make the bet but only if I could name the mascot. I could not and he refused the bet. I asked him a few days later why he refused the bet, he said he did not want to lose me as a customer, and if he starts accepting bets on shit games from drunk bettors he wins in the short term and loses in the long term because the bettor breaks. Best bookie I ever had, unfortunately he died a couple years later, car accident, ice related.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRThis was easy 20 point win. I really have fun with these obscure small college basketball games. Make me nostalgic for the early 90s when you didn't worry about what the books needed and lines weren't sharp and you just old fashion handicap games that no one is paying attention to with 300 people in the stands.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgullMany years ago, like 20 years ago I was on a huge downdraft. I just got killed on a MI football bet, and I went up to my bookie at a bar, semi-drunk, and said I wanted to put $500 on Bowling Green. He said I will give you the credit to make the bet but only if I could name the mascot. I could not and he refused the bet. I asked him a few days later why he refused the bet, he said he did not want to lose me as a customer, and if he starts accepting bets on shit games from drunk bettors he wins in the short term and loses in the long term because the bettor breaks. Best bookie I ever had, unfortunately he died a couple years later, car accident, ice related.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
You needed me there. The Falcons. They even have the same male and female names as my high school. And the other poster from Donkdown. Unlearndefy or something like that. Freddie and Frieda. I always assumed someone went to BG back in the day despite it being 3 hours away. Coldest fucking campus ever. Like wind whipping around every building in some weird wind tunnel fashion because it’s so flat up there. You likely would have lost anyway. They offered half my team scholarships including some of us who weren’t exactly D-1 material even by MAC standards.
I get your larger point. It was true back in the day for sure. I only do the tournaments in general because you have seen the season play out and Vegas simply doesn’t care as much.
On that note, Indiana State +1.5 -120 or -106 ML at 1pm
I only have like half the confidence in this one that I did last night. They played like a week ago for the only time and Indiana State won by 17 at home. Now a week later I’m getting a point? Could be getting sucked in. Can’t find any injury. In general looking at the season as a whole, Indiana State look slightly better and the h2h result, but they shot really well, computers see it as like 52/48 Indiana state win and getting a point on neutral court, so wtf else am I betting on at 1pm?
The last shit game I bet on was Kent State in football like two or three years ago. It was actually on TV and they had just annihilated their last two opponents. They were at home, Wednesday night football on ESPN2. Place was going nuts, playing a team at home with a losing record. Some directional school. They were 14 point favorites, and I bet a grand. easy money. Yeah, easy money for the book, Kent was absolutely routed.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRQuote:
Originally Posted by tgull
You needed me there. The Falcons. They even have the same male and female names as my high school. And the other poster from Donkdown. Unlearndefy or something like that. Freddie and Frieda. I always assumed someone went to BG back in the day despite it being 3 hours away. Coldest fucking campus ever. Like wind whipping around every building in some weird wind tunnel fashion because it’s so flat up there. You likely would have lost anyway. They offered half my team scholarships including some of us who weren’t exactly D-1 material even by MAC standards.
I get your larger point. It was true back in the day for sure. I only do the tournaments in general because you have seen the season play out and Vegas simply doesn’t care as much.
On that note, Indiana State +1.5 -120 or -106 ML at 1pm
I only have like half the confidence in this one that I did last night. They played like a week ago for the only time and Indiana State won by 17 at home. Now a week later I’m getting a point? Could be getting sucked in. Can’t find any injury. In general looking at the season as a whole, Indiana State look slightly better and the h2h result, but they shot really well, computers see it as like 52/48 Indiana state win and getting a point on neutral court, so wtf else am I betting on at 1pm?
I only now bet power 5 conferences where I at least have a chance. Last night Maryland-MI game was about as easy as it comes. Maryland just plays great defense so the under was just screaming. Hopefully the St Johns Marquette line this weekend is as juicy, that is another game the under just screams under given Pitino's obsession with defense. Thinking a 68-62 type game, hopefully we get a 152 number, game is at noon which is 11am CDT, which means a slow start, one of those 14-11 type games at the 10 minute mark first half with lots of foul trouble on both sides.
The counter argument to that is with any major event, getting an incredibly sharp line is paramount to the book as any large mistake is catastrophic. You’re going to have the best models, best minds, monitoring the sharps as any bad line kills them.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgullThe last shit game I bet on was Kent State in football like two or three years ago. It was actually on TV and they had just annihilated their last two opponents. They were at home, Wednesday night football on ESPN2. Place was going nuts, playing a team at home with a losing record. Some directional school. They were 14 point favorites, and I bet a grand. easy money. Yeah, easy money for the book, Kent was absolutely routed.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
I only now bet power 5 conferences where I at least have a chance. Last night Maryland-MI game was about as easy as it comes. Maryland just plays great defense so the under was just screaming. Hopefully the St Johns Marquette line this weekend is as juicy, that is another game the under just screams under given Pitino's obsession with defense. Thinking a 68-62 type game, hopefully we get a 152 number, game is at noon which is 11am CDT, which means a slow start, one of those 14-11 type games at the 10 minute mark first half with lots of foul trouble on both sides.
Whereas in these little games, being off a few points isn’t some backbreaker. It’s pocket change.
It’s hard to beat sports period, but the more action and the more attention, much greater strides are made to not make an error.
There is a whole culture that compares lines (especially boosts and promos) to sharp books (Pinny Circa). They develop a percentage that they feel represents value. Devig or devigging a line is the term used. You already intuitively know what I’m talking about. crazyninjaodds on discord is a popular go to.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRThe counter argument to that is with any major event, getting an incredibly sharp line is paramount to the book as any large mistake is catastrophic. You’re going to have the best models, best minds, monitoring the sharps as any bad line kills them.Quote:
Originally Posted by tgull
Whereas in these little games, being off a few points isn’t some backbreaker. It’s pocket change.
It’s hard to beat sports period, but the more action and the more attention, much greater strides are made to not make an error.
Download beebettor. Poke around and do some learning about the app when you have time. See what you think
Beebettor is tremendous imo. The price is right. It’s free. There are a suite of utilities that are in vogue but let’s start there
There are kids who just bet these EV numbers blindly and honestly those I know who do have some solid workmanlike results. I must confess in my circles peeps have come to view Pinny as having some kind of divine knowledge. They have no knowledge about the history of Pinnacle. Worse, they don’t find any romance in the background. Annoys me but my boys seem so happy I let them do their thing.
Baseball is coming and I’m just not feeling it this year.
I’m just sharing and jamming some content. I’m not an evangelist. Maybe we get some dialogue here but I’m doubtful. I appreciate your contributions on PFA BCR.