*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

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Originally Posted by Tellafriend

wow if true.


https://x.com/chrisfallica/status/1869158134297854015

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Most of that is just losing to Ohio St and Michigan every year.

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

--Sagarin power ratings dont perfectly aligned with the actual game lines, and I dont think you can beat the books by using his ratings. But they are very close if you are looking at how teams that never play would stack up. And I will say having 10 teams at the top within a 7 point spread is very unusual. Most years 1 or 2 teams (Alabama, Georgia, Ohio St, etc.) are in a tier by themselves; and everyone else is more than a TD behind.

Normally Penn St. would be rated 10+ points behind the top teams, and would invariably be outclassed. The fact they are only 4 points from the top illustrates this is a very different type of year, where they have a chance. (although the narrative is their head coach has a long history of consistently bungling high leverage spots, and there is no reason to believe he wont continue to do so)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kalam

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Tellafriend

wow if true.


https://x.com/chrisfallica/status/1869158134297854015

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Most of that is just losing to Ohio St and Michigan every year.

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

--Sagarin power ratings dont perfectly aligned with the actual game lines, and I dont think you can beat the books by using his ratings. But they are very close if you are looking at how teams that never play would stack up. And I will say having 10 teams at the top within a 7 point spread is very unusual. Most years 1 or 2 teams (Alabama, Georgia, Ohio St, etc.) are in a tier by themselves; and everyone else is more than a TD behind.

Normally Penn St. would be rated 10+ points behind the top teams, and would invariably be outclassed. The fact they are only 4 points from the top illustrates this is a very different type of year, where they have a chance. (although the narrative is their head coach has a long history of consistently bungling high leverage spots, and there is no reason to believe he wont continue to do so)

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it tells me they don't play enough top teams. sec brah.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Tellafriend

wow if true.


https://x.com/chrisfallica/status/1869158134297854015

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Nothing ever happens until it does.


Remember 10 years ago Penn St was still trying to crawl out from the Joe Pa hole. The brand was radioactive.

This isnt the same team from even 5 years ago.

It was clear the Oregon was the best team in the country this year. Penn st was one stop from beating them. No other team pushed the Ducks around like that.

I have a friend who is an Indiana alum and even he said he wouldn’t bet Indiana. That got me thinking. Irresistible words

I don’t know Indiana’s NIL salaries, record or anything else. I’ve never set eyes on either team this year and won’t watch but gonna bet the numbers with the FD/DK 50% boost for the my max $20

Degen numbers play.

I ran the numbers with CNO



Wife is getting some fine jewelry if this works out

More DK coupon clipping

The less you know

Damn, I am about to unload a bunch of money on ND and see you betting Indiana san. I love that Indiana team and hate ND, but I can’t in my head see a reason or rationale on how Indiana stays close and any weather helps ND imo with a running QB.

Like once Ohio State realized Indiana couldn’t protect their QB, they could barely get a first down and Marcus Freeman is no great coach, but he’s an excellent defensive coach. I don’t see how he doesn’t watch Ohio State game and salivate. That Indiana coach has done an amazing job, but against Ohio State it just became glaringly obvious how great he had done to overachieve with a bunch of JMU transfers once you saw them on the field with excellent athletes .

And with weather, the team with the QB who can run is at a great advantage. Indiana front is good, but I don’t see how they stop him from moving the chains once their offense starts going 3 and out.

I really expect something like 37-10 ND and I’m about to fire them all the way up to -11. I wouldnt be on Indiana hard if they were +20.

One of us is going to be unhappy.


Another angle is Indiana scripts that first drive beautifully. Wouldn’t shock me if they are up 7-0 before losing 37-10. Might hold some ammo for a better price if they do take early lead.


I’ll be legit shocked if Indiana is really in this game late, but I’m been very wrong before.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Daly

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Tellafriend

wow if true.


https://x.com/chrisfallica/status/1869158134297854015

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Nothing ever happens until it does.


Remember 10 years ago Penn St was still trying to crawl out from the Joe Pa hole. The brand was radioactive.

This isnt the same team from even 5 years ago.

It was clear the Oregon was the best team in the country this year. Penn st was one stop from beating them. No other team pushed the Ducks around like that.

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Ohio State had many chances to put Oregon away. Penn State ran over them. I don’t doubt either team is better than Oregon, but both are coached by retards and James Franklin of like 1-20 against top ten teams putting together a string of wins against exactly that is definitely going to have to see it to believe it territory. He turtles like a scared kid in every big game.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BCR

Damn, I am about to unload a bunch of money on ND and see you betting Indiana san. I love that Indiana team and hate ND, but I can’t in my head see a reason or rationale on how Indiana stays close and any weather helps ND imo with a running QB.

Like once Ohio State realized Indiana couldn’t protect their QB, they could barely get a first down and Marcus Freeman is no great coach, but he’s an excellent defensive coach. I don’t see how he doesn’t watch Ohio State game and salivate. That Indiana coach has done an amazing job, but against Ohio State it just became glaringly obvious how great he had done to overachieve with a bunch of JMU transfers once you saw them on the field with excellent athletes .

And with weather, the team with the QB who can run is at a great advantage. Indiana front is good, but I don’t see how they stop him from moving the chains once their offense starts going 3 and out.

I really expect something like 37-10 ND and I’m about to fire them all the way up to -11. I wouldnt be on Indiana hard if they were +20.

One of us is going to be unhappy.


Another angle is Indiana scripts that first drive beautifully. Wouldn’t shock me if they are up 7-0 before losing 37-10. Might hold some ammo for a better price if they do take early lead.


I’ll be legit shocked if Indiana is really in this game late, but I’m been very wrong before.

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I bet $900 on ND, I think this is going to be an easy one for the Irish. I might bet more, this one seems easy. Just feels like a 41-10 game.

I’m a man of my convictions. We are down for an amount that might make me revisit who exactly needs a Christmas present and who doesn’t.

Single @
-110
Open
Dec 20 • 2024 At 07:36:52 PM
Ticket ID: 845675
Point Spread: (3) Notre Dame -7.0
(9) Indiana @ (3) Notre Dame


Single @
+138
Open
Dec 20 • 2024 At 07:37:28 PM
Ticket ID: 8456757
Point Spread: (3) Notre Dame -10.5
(9) Indiana @ (3) Notre Dame


If Indiana goes up 7-0 I will bet more on ND at better number.

Full disclaimer. Last time I was this sure of myself me and tella probably lost a mid sized new car between the two of us on Georgia blowing out Ohio State that NC Georgia squeaked out. Painful night all around. Georgia covers and I’m happy. Ohio State wins the NC I’m happy but poorer. My Alma mater blew the NC game and GA didn’t cover. I was poorer and miserable.

Indiana, our Indiana
Indiana, we're all for you!
We will fight for the cream and crimson
For the glory of old IU

Wife is at John Glenn (CMH) trying to get out of Ohio. She never gonna make it home before Christmas. A delay shitshow

Her girlfriend was trying to get her to come to the Ohio game.

I’ve never been so disgusted to win a bunch of money. Two garbage touchdowns and a fucking onside kick fucks the sweep

What’s the read on today’s games gents

KC -3.5

LOL. I have Texas -13.5. Up 14 on 3rd and 2 they get a first down around midfield to ice the game. But refs give them a horrible spot and now 4th and 1. And then Manning fumbles it on the sneak. And now backdoor TD is pretty much guaranteed.

Horrible.

In other news I saw I had a couple hundred in my account I could not account for, and saw it was for the Usyk fight. I bet Usyk -180 a couple weeks ago on the recommendation of Bill Simmons and completely forgot, and didn't realize the fight happened sometime this morning. Always nice to find extra money in the account on a bet you completely forgot you made (although it has gone the other way plenty of times too).

In other other news I have been on a bad NBA run lately because I keep picking sides where the team I picked just randomly sits out multiple players. Took Magic this morning, and randomly they sit a bunch of guys (on top of the ones already out for injury). This is like 5th time this has happened in last 2 weeks. Super annoying.

I also took Memphis and of course they are siting Morant too, although Hawks scratched Trey so kind of a push there and I still like my bet.

I mean if you are Celtics and want to rest guys periodically that is fine, because you are probably going to win the game anyways, and definitely be a high seed. But if you are Orlando you need every win. WTF are you doing just giving away winnable games against the Heat in December??

seahawks +3

San Francisco -2 at Miami
Arizona -5 -115 at Carolina

Don’t love anything so just did a small treble for the lols

Rams -3
Eagles -4
Bengals @ Browns over 46