sounds like sanlmar was kidnapped
RIP
Printable View
sounds like sanlmar was kidnapped
RIP
They aren't +EV, but EV isn't that much worse than a normal bet. For example, if you tease two 6 point favorites to ML, you will be betting -110 to win 100.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Teasers are a horrible, horrible, HORRIBLE value, unless you go "through" the 3 and 7 point lines.Quote:
Originally Posted by gutI was reminded this weekend that other reason not to do teasers; when you hit, but didnt need to tease at all. Feels like a loss. I did separately bet Bucs -6 at least.
Do not tease totals, either.
So you should tease only lines that are +1.5 to +2.5, or -7.5 to -8.5.
Everything else is giving away tremendous value to the books.
My favorite advice: "When you want to tease, parlay instead."
If you bet one 6 point favorite ML (-270) and then let it ride on a second 6 point favorite at the same price you will risk 110 to win 107. So the EV difference isn't that much. Its not like you are playing keno.
San you need to pick up some part time work is thesparten hiring?
Can't be having you watching movies @ theatres.....or did you dump some money in AMC?
Wisconsin +1
Miami Ohio/BG o 39.5
Iowa/Neb u40
Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Btw - we would have lost full game Tulane under…… maybe its me but i swear this happens a lot
Quote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Adding Cavs -5.5. Repeat against the Hawks. They got complacent and blew game the other day. Hawks shot almost 50% from 3. Hit 92% on 25 free throws. Likely won’t replicate and Cavs look to avenge their second loss.
Only real value i see on the ncaaf board is over 61.5 ole miss.
Im also going to play over 6 in the vegas/Jets game
So far batting .000 on NBA moneylines, but....
Detroit +170 at Indiana
So far so good (end of 1st Q). I was thinking of taking Detroit +4.5, but didn't pull the trigger.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I took Hawks O39 wins for season win bet, so been following their games. Weird team. They lost to Wizards twice and Blazers, but have beaten Celtics and Cavs twice.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRQuote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Adding Cavs -5.5. Repeat against the Hawks. They got complacent and blew game the other day. Hawks shot almost 50% from 3. Hit 92% on 25 free throws. Likely won’t replicate and Cavs look to avenge their second loss.
I asked ChatGPT this after the Chiefs extended their record:
What are the odds of an NFL team winning 14 consecutive one score games?
"Winning 14 consecutive one-score games in the NFL is an extraordinary feat, and the probability of it happening depends on several factors, including the general win probability in one-score games and the team’s specific tendencies.
Baseline Probability of Winning One-Score Games
One-score games in the NFL are considered “coin flips” to some extent, as the outcomes are often determined by small differences in performance or luck. Historically, teams win approximately 50%-60% of one-score games depending on various factors (e.g., team quality, coaching, and situational skill).
Let’s assume a 55% win probability for simplicity (a strong but not dominant team in close games).
Probability of Winning 14 in a Row
The probability of winning 14 consecutive one-score games can be calculated using the formula for independent events:

Using a 55% win probability:

This means there is about a 0.04% chance (1 in 2,500 odds) of a team winning 14 consecutive one-score games under these conditions.
Factors That Could Influence the Odds
1. Elite Teams: If a team is significantly better than its competition, their win probability in one-score games might be higher (e.g., 65-70%). Even then, the probability remains extremely low.
• For a 65% win rate:  or 0.9% (1 in 111 odds).
• For a 70% win rate:  or 1.6% (1 in 63 odds).
2. Clutch Performances and Luck: Some teams may benefit from factors like exceptional quarterback play, coaching, or turnover luck, increasing their odds in tight games.
3. Non-Independence of Games: Real-world outcomes may not be truly independent. For example, a team with a psychological or tactical edge may win close games at a higher rate, which could skew the calculations.
Historical Context
Few teams have achieved such streaks. The 2022-2023 Minnesota Vikings won 11 consecutive one-score games, an NFL record at the time, before losing one. Their success was often attributed to clutch play and favorable variance, but it highlighted how rare such streaks are.
Conclusion
Even for a good team, the odds of winning 14 consecutive one-score games are extraordinarily slim, ranging from 0.04% to about 1.6% depending on their likelihood of winning a single close game."
Guys it is totally a coincidence that one team gets every controversial call or no call and plays by seemingly a different set of rules for holding and pass interference.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
how much notice was there on this?
Probably 5 min. The games scheduled for 5 pm (where actual start time is 5:15) are normally open to bet sides and totals until around 5:10. Props tend to shut down much earlier.Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
how much notice was there on this?
you want daddy to press the button for you too?Quote:
Originally Posted by TellafriendQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
how much notice was there on this?
thanks for the pick druff, got it @+200 LIVE
The real odds are actually much longer than this. If you give the Chiefs a generous 60% chance in every one of these situations, the odds of 14 consecutive victories is 1 in 6173.Quote:
Originally Posted by VaughnP
Georgia vs. Georgia Tech is in 6th overtime on ESPN currently.
8th overtime. Correction, this is on ABC. Didn't realize that from my Hulu.
Meant to post the Pistons +170 earlier, but got an important call which lasted an hour.
So I barely got it off.
I added a bit live as well, at even better odds, like our friend Krypt.
Not much of a sweat.
Very meh day. Was lucky to get split as Iowa bet was only good bet. Miami/ BG win was very lucky.Quote:
Originally Posted by BCRQuote:
Originally Posted by BCR
Adding Cavs -5.5. Repeat against the Hawks. They got complacent and blew game the other day. Hawks shot almost 50% from 3. Hit 92% on 25 free throws. Likely won’t replicate and Cavs look to avenge their second loss.
For tmrw.
Kentucky +4
Kentucky ML +145
Kansas -1
Took a point off Army and ND lines and parlayed those two both at -6.5 for +217
NBA
Hornets +150 ML
hornets form is woeful but they’re steadily improving.