I was reminded this weekend that other reason not to do teasers; when you hit, but didnt need to tease at all. Feels like a loss. I did separately bet Bucs -6 at least.
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I was reminded this weekend that other reason not to do teasers; when you hit, but didnt need to tease at all. Feels like a loss. I did separately bet Bucs -6 at least.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gut
I was reminded this weekend that other reason not to do teasers; when you hit, but didnt need to tease at all. Feels like a loss. I did separately bet Bucs -6 at least.
Exactly right.
Congrats that you won, but you just pissed away ~400% of winnings that in most cases you dont ever end up using.
Bet 100 to win 150ish on tease (depending on shit book)
Or
Bet 100 to win 550ish on parlay.
+EV to lose the tease 3 times due to the 6 points and get the full payout when it does hit.
If you have underdog you can get Harrison Barnes over 29.5 PRA at 8.33x. He’s been over this mark last three games. He’s also facing the league’s 27th worst defense.
Add two more legs and you’re looking at something like 80-1
something like this pays 131x
all three have hit these numbers last two games
$100 pays $13k
Branching out a bit because I'm on vacation.
NcaaB Bama U71 1H
Nba rockets U220.5
Nba Jazz +2.5
Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
The guy who cut a promo about playing under for 1h vs full game, and ignored his own advice, lost due to OT.
Still almost pulled it off
1 off with Barnes and Castle. +2175 ticket
Final play was Barnes feeding to Castle. If other way around, I win $4350 off $200 bet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gPcfXhtVOmY
This seems so unlike you. Care to explain yourself young man? Who are you using as a book here?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
1 off with Barnes and Castle. +2175 ticket
Final play was Barnes feeding to Castle. If other way around, I win $4350 off $200 bet.
POR/IND UNDER 232.5
TOR/NOP OVER 107.5 1H
bonuses and promosQuote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarThis seems so unlike you. Care to explain yourself young man? Who are you using as a book here?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
1 off with Barnes and Castle. +2175 ticket
Final play was Barnes feeding to Castle. If other way around, I win $4350 off $200 bet.
these sites dish them out almost daily
underdog, draftkings pick6, and prizepicks are the top 3
Druff is using underdog here
I’ve still been hot, but I’m betting smallish on NBA in general, so if you happen to tail, do so lightly as I haven’t put much thought into them.
Two Heat based parlays tonight. Second is boosted so the top odds are pre boost. They are are on b2b but only played two games in a week and Charlotte is struggling to find offense even with Ball going off. I’ve been betting against the Wizards in some form, but Clips slow pace and I jacked up the number a bit.
For those doing fantasy stuff, I made $ lately being p+rebounds on guards a lot lately against Wiz.
Wizards give up more rebounds to guards than any team in league. I had Chicago parlayed with Brogdon 0 17.5 p+r last night and he reached it despite having a shit game and only playing like 22 minutes. I look every night for whatever guards are playing Wiz as guys who average 1.8 rebounds get six and there is usually value on guards in p+r spots. Average teams are better than good teams and PGs are best value. Have to be selective as teams often blow out the Wizards and dudes might sit 4th. I like stuff in that 15-19 range as opposed to over 38 p+r like stars command as they might not play as many minutes. PGs have a lot of 14 point 6 rebound games against them who aren’t natural rebounders.
Parlay (2 Picks)0 of 2 settled
Nov 27 • 2024 At 04:08:52 PM
Ticket ID: 8341456675
Moneyline: MIA Heat
MIA Heat @ CHA Hornets
Total Points: Under 230
LA Clippers @ WAS Wizards
Odds:
+136
Parlay (2 Picks)0 of 2 settled
Nov 27 • 2024 At 04:07:30 PM
Ticket ID: 8341455
Point Spread: MIA Heat -2.0 @ -141
MIA Heat @ CHA Hornets
Point Spread: CLE Cavaliers -5.5 @ -225
ATL Hawks @ CLE Cavaliers
Odds:
+148
+185
Knicks at Dallas - Under 232 -110
Teasers are a horrible, horrible, HORRIBLE value, unless you go "through" the 3 and 7 point lines.Quote:
Originally Posted by gutI was reminded this weekend that other reason not to do teasers; when you hit, but didnt need to tease at all. Feels like a loss. I did separately bet Bucs -6 at least.
Do not tease totals, either.
So you should tease only lines that are +1.5 to +2.5, or -7.5 to -8.5.
Everything else is giving away tremendous value to the books.
My favorite advice: "When you want to tease, parlay instead."
To explain my prop betting further:
Willie got me into this. Blame him.
In California, for whatever reason, player prop betting has become legal through DFS sites. However, these have to be parlays, so there's no straight up betting on props. I believe this is now legal in most states.
There are legalized sites such as Draftkings, Underdog, and Prizepicks which provide these bets.
Normally the odds suck and it's -EV even if you're skilled. However, bonuses and promos (given several times per week) can turn it around in your favor.
In the bets I've been posting, Underdog has been giving me a "50% profit boost", which sounds tremendous, but in reality takes it to fairly close to 0 EV. However, you can bust over that 0 EV by finding props which are mislined there, which I usually do by searching their action/lines elsewhere. I bet the ones where the sharps seem to be betting up one side heavily on the books, but where Underdog hasn't yet adjusted enough (or at all).
In some cases, the prop picks are my own, and unrelated to the above. In other case, my research into these props, including reading sharps' opinions of good props for the day, can also play into it.
I struggled for a bit, then miraculously hit three in a row (+750, +750, +577), as I posted here last week. Then I did that one yesterday for +2175 (!!), and it came one point and one assist away from hitting. So close, yet so far away.
Here's today, in college BB:
Happy thanksgiving
Bears +10
Giants U17.5 1h
Tulane u27.5 1h
No NHL. Tuned into the Bears Lions. Mother of god this is dreadful shite. Traditional though
NFL or Wicked.
Gonna join the tweeners and see what looks to be a woke movie. Obv the sharp play
Sad
Happy Thanksgiving you crazy American lovable bastards.
San you don’t strike me as the woke movie type lol
Jesus BuddyQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
How was the movie?Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar