*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

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Originally Posted by BCR

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Originally Posted by gut

Full on blizzard would up my bet for Jameis! Let Chubb cook.

I do feel those teams are much closer in talent than the records suggest, and with weather really is very close to a pickem in my head. Thus just taking the number.

I would expect whoever gets a defensive touchdown wins.

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I actually thought about defensive TD. Defense/special teams TD is +255.

Just looked. Not 255, +225

I also might do Jaylen Warren o/51:5 yards rushing and receiving. Steelers been using him more every game and seems like a dump short pass off to RB game.

Chubb has a moment every game where he almost looks back, but he isn’t the same yet. Hopefully tonight for you.

I still feel like going full ploppy and Steelers -6 for +150. I guess it’s PTSD after losing 95% of Steelers game in my 50 plus years.

I’m in Western Pa right now. It’s not full on blizzard. Just cold with scattered flurries. Pittsburgh is south of me, so maybe not even flurries there .

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We got there for the moment. Please don’t run him again and lose 2 yards.

OT saved my over, which was about to barely lose.

However, Detroit couldn't get itself over the top and lost outright.

Split 'em.

GL to the Cleveland bettors here

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

OT saved my over, which was about to barely lose.

However, Detroit couldn't get itself over the top and lost outright.

Split 'em.

GL to the Cleveland bettors here

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i bet the same over also, but probably before you did... and then i seen you give out the play and didn't want to jinx anything so i didn't say anything... i almost sprinkled a little on CHA money line @ +120.... NBA home dogs are winning at 54% so far this season... but i didn't... story of my life... had under 37 on the NFL game... looks like that is gonna lose....

Nice hit gut!

Druff,

How is NBA going this year? I know you used to keep records. Are you right now?

I started doing exotic props and parlays, which is fun but I am losing my ass. Surprise surprise.

For example it is halftime of Lakers/Magic and I have a Lebron/Reaves combined prop of at least 4 three pointers -200. They are at 2 at halftime, so the sweat is on.

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Originally Posted by Kalam

Druff,

How is NBA going this year? I know you used to keep records. Are you right now?

I started doing exotic props and parlays, which is fun but I am losing my ass. Surprise surprise.

For example it is halftime of Lakers/Magic and I have a Lebron/Reaves combined prop of at least 4 three pointers -200. They are at 2 at halftime, so the sweat is on.

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I started off 7-2, but am currently in a 1-4 slump. I've only bet sporadically.

NBA is hard.

I think I may have found my sports calling.

I have a friend who loves public sides of bets. He texts me for advice and ask what I think, and I advise my opinion. In the times I've talked down his "locks", he's surprised, but ultimately has taken my "stay away" advice 19 times, including tonight's Steelers spread and last night's Bulls spread.

My record in those "stay away" trap spots? 18-1. Not kidding. Unfortunately, when I state the picks I do like, I've only broken approximately even. Double unfortunately, I've rarely bet the other side in those games, but rather just told him not to bet what he's suggesting.

Probably just variance here, but wow. Maybe I should just stick to fading trap lines.

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Originally Posted by BCR

Nice hit gut!

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Jeudy might actually be a legit WR1

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

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Originally Posted by Kalam

Druff,

How is NBA going this year? I know you used to keep records. Are you right now?

I started doing exotic props and parlays, which is fun but I am losing my ass. Surprise surprise.

For example it is halftime of Lakers/Magic and I have a Lebron/Reaves combined prop of at least 4 three pointers -200. They are at 2 at halftime, so the sweat is on.

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I started off 7-2, but am currently in a 1-4 slump. I've only bet sporadically.

NBA is hard.

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8-6 is still beating the vig. Cant really ask more than that. In other news Lebron hit a 3 in the first minute of the third and then nothing rest of third. So need a 3 from Lebron or Reaves in the 4th Q. The sweat continues.

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Originally Posted by gut

Browns +160 tmrw night.

Ugly weather, ugly teams, i'm taking the number.

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Took +125 live in 2Q
Go with your gut

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

I think I may have found my sports calling.

I have a friend who loves public sides of bets. He texts me for advice and ask what I think, and I advise my opinion. In the times I've talked down his "locks", he's surprised, but ultimately has taken my "stay away" advice 19 times, including tonight's Steelers spread and last night's Bulls spread.

My record in those "stay away" trap spots? 18-1. Not kidding. Unfortunately, when I state the picks I do like, I've only broken approximately even. Double unfortunately, I've rarely bet the other side in those games, but rather just told him not to bet what he's suggesting.

Probably just variance here, but wow. Maybe I should just stick to fading trap lines.

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It's because you're jewish. You thrive on negativity

Horrible loss by Lakers. Were up the whole game but never really pulled away; and Lebron and AD went combined 2-6 from the free throw line in the last minute of the game and lost by 1 point.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

I think I may have found my sports calling.

I have a friend who loves public sides of bets. He texts me for advice and ask what I think, and I advise my opinion. In the times I've talked down his "locks", he's surprised, but ultimately has taken my "stay away" advice 19 times, including tonight's Steelers spread and last night's Bulls spread.

My record in those "stay away" trap spots? 18-1. Not kidding. Unfortunately, when I state the picks I do like, I've only broken approximately even. Double unfortunately, I've rarely bet the other side in those games, but rather just told him not to bet what he's suggesting.

Probably just variance here, but wow. Maybe I should just stick to fading trap lines.

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Its probably less variance than you think.

The #1 lesson in sports gambling, as far as picking winers and losers, is understanding the “house wants balanced action” fallacy.

Once you understand that vegas is not in the business of saving up 5% of the gate its easier to understand the parlor tricks. They know more about recency bias and public opinion than Madison avenue ad firms.

“fading trap lines” is over 50% of my formula.

Chiefs at Carolina this weekend seems the exact same kind of bet as Pitt Cle. The public will flood the Chiefs but 10+ points is a ton, and the Chiefs could still blow them out and not cover.

I am less inclined on a money line bet as last night, but the payoff would be huge. Might be worth a taste, but the points are a meal.

Thanks, Daly, for your picks and thoughts.

Just after posting about avoiding traps, I'm going to bet one.

This is based upon the Sixers being a favorite last time, and still losing OUTRIGHT.

Brooklyn +130 vs Philadelphia

Embiid, Lowry, Geroge OUT

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Originally Posted by BCR

Ohio at Toledo tonight. Forecast calls for nasty and windy.

Ohio is 2nd in league in rushing with a QB who runs and good RB. They are first in rush defense in the league.

These two teams have identical records and the line is Ohio +1, but Ohio has handled common opponents by larger margin. I was looking at them as play before weather added to allure.

Ohio ML is right at +100 now. Pretty good size play for me, but take a look at it and do your own homework if you like it. It’s hard to get detailed injury reports and subtlety with the small schools. You’re left to look at previous game stats and a lot of Twitter.

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nice call on this one too, btw, appreciate it!

Clippers player
Single
@
+110
Open
Nov 22 • 2024 At 09:20:32 PM
Ticket ID: 83084
Points scored by the player: Coffey, Amir - Over 12.5

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Originally Posted by BCR

Clippers player
Single
@
+110
Open
Nov 22 • 2024 At 09:20:32 PM
Ticket ID: 83084
Points scored by the player: Coffey, Amir - Over 12.5

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Wow. I had Coffey O11.5 and I logged in just to bitch. He had 11 through 3 and then didn't get 1 second of 4th Q run. So fucking brutal. He played fine. Clippers were ahead and in cruise control all game and I guess Lue decided 24 minutes were enough for him (although every other starter got some 4th Q run so not sure why he was singled out for the pine).

I also have San Jose St +7.5 in CFB. They are down 4 in the 4th and UNLV is on a long drive that included a conversion on 3rd and 13 and a first down on a punt due to running into the kicker. Seems destined for a TD and cover by UNLV. So fucking brutal brutal brutal. Just one of those years I guess.

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Originally Posted by Kalam

Quote:

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Originally Posted by BCR

Clippers player
Single
@
+110
Open
Nov 22 • 2024 At 09:20:32 PM
Ticket ID: 83084
Points scored by the player: Coffey, Amir - Over 12.5

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Wow. I had Coffey O11.5 and I logged in just to bitch. He had 11 through 3 and then didn't get 1 second of 4th Q run. So fucking brutal. He played fine. Clippers were ahead and in cruise control all game and I guess Lue decided 24 minutes were enough for him (although every other starter got some 4th Q run so not sure why he was singled out for the pine).

I also have San Jose St +7.5 in CFB. They are down 4 in the 4th and UNLV is on a long drive that included a conversion on 3rd and 13 and a first down on a punt due to running into the kicker. Seems destined for a TD and cover by UNLV. So fucking brutal brutal brutal. Just one of those years I guess.

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I see dudes online who lost 12 leg parlays with 11 winners on his not playing the 4th. Fucking horrible. Sacramento scoring 29 first half points made it so Clips were in cruise control. He played 33 last game and was playing well. Just went with taller guys to rebound and protect lead.

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Originally Posted by BCR

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Originally Posted by Kalam

Wow. I had Coffey O11.5 and I logged in just to bitch. He had 11 through 3 and then didn't get 1 second of 4th Q run. So fucking brutal. He played fine. Clippers were ahead and in cruise control all game and I guess Lue decided 24 minutes were enough for him (although every other starter got some 4th Q run so not sure why he was singled out for the pine).

I also have San Jose St +7.5 in CFB. They are down 4 in the 4th and UNLV is on a long drive that included a conversion on 3rd and 13 and a first down on a punt due to running into the kicker. Seems destined for a TD and cover by UNLV. So fucking brutal brutal brutal. Just one of those years I guess.

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I see dudes online who lost 12 leg parlays with 11 winners on his not playing the 4th. Fucking horrible. Sacramento scoring 29 first half points made it so Clips were in cruise control. He played 33 last game and was playing well. Just went with taller guys to rebound and protect lead.

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LOL. San Jose St. the same guy got a roughing the kicker penalty on 2 separate UNLV 4th quarter punts to guarantee they dont cover. What a joke. I have seen a lot of nonsense in my day, but not sure I have ever seen the same guy get 2 roughing the kicker penalties on punts to cost me a bet like that before.