Originally Posted by
Walter Sobchak
Greetings PFA, it’s been a while. I sincerely hope you are all well.
I also hope you listened to me, because I was right about everything.
This will be a long post so tl;dr: Kamala is going to win and the Democrats are going to keep the Senate and take back the House.
I said inflation was temporary and related to supply chain disruption, and that the Fed would get it under control and bring the economy in for a soft landing without causing a recession or high unemployment. And that’s exactly what happened. Inflation is back down to the Fed’s target of 2% and unemployment remains near historic lows, below the 5% level that is considered full employment. The price of some items is higher than before, and the right-wing alternate universe like Fox News tells you that means there’s still inflation. They’re misleading you about what inflation is. It’s the rate of change of prices. They tell you that we should want prices to go back down to where they were before inflation spiked. That would be deflation, which is a disaster even worse than inflation. What we should want instead is for real wages to increase so that people can afford the same goods despite their higher price. And guess what, that’s happening. Real wages are up. All of these stats are available if you leave the right-wing bubble and join the real world.
I said high gas prices were temporary and related to supply chain disruption, and that they would drop. And that’s exactly what happened. The inflation-adjusted price of gas is about the same now as it averaged during Trump’s term, and still dropping. And that’s with a robust economy and war in the middle east.
I said the economy would be great under Biden, and it is. People love to complain about the economy. People always say the economy sucks under a president they don’t like, and say it’s good under a president they like. This is especially true now in today’s polarized age, where if you listen to the right-wing disinformation bubble you’d think we were in the middle of another Great Depression. But if you want to know how people really feel about the economy, look at their behavior rather than what they say. Spending is robust, businesses are investing, the labor market remains strong. The economy is actually in fantastic shape, especially compared to other major countries. (China’s is in the fucking toilet.) Presidents get too much blame when the economy is bad and too much credit when the economy is good. A president’s effect is more structural and long-term, and short-term economics don’t have much to do with the president unless they do something crazy. Unfortunately, Trump wants to do several crazy things to the economy.
I said that Biden would be tougher on China than Trump was, and he is. Through the CHIPS Act, the Inflation Reduction Act and other measures, Biden has set America on a course to maintain America’s technological advantage and move the manufacturing of crucial high-tech components back to America, and prevent China from accessing certain crucial military technologies. This will do far more to give America a long-term advantage over China than Trump’s tariffs. It is also resulting in massive investments in high-quality American jobs, many of them in red states whose representatives voted against it. (But there was significant Republican support for this, to their credit.)
I said the increase in crime was temporary, and it would drop again. And that’s exactly what happened. Violent crime is now back to historic lows after its brief spike during Covid. Of course if you live in the right-wing chamber of lies, you think America is like Mad Max and Robocop and Soylent Green all rolled into one apocalypse. The truth is America is as safe as it’s ever been.
Now I hope you’re paying attention, because here’s something else I’m right about, and you can make some money on it if you’re so inclined.] Kamala is going to win, and it’s not going to be particularly close. She will win with a few states to spare. She’s going to win Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada (which is enough), and she’s going to win at least 2 of Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. Yes, it will be possible to say “if 80,000 votes in 3 states had changed, Trump would have won,” but it’s possible to say that about almost every election. And the reason she will win will not be because of voter fraud. It will be because Americans don’t like Trump the orange fascist. This is not wishful thinking. If I thought Trump would win I would say so. Here are a couple of reason I say this:
The polls are underestimating Kamala. The polls are not properly sampling the 2024 electorate. Pollsters are so scared of underestimating Trump like they did in 2016 and to a lesser extent in 2020 that they have adjusted their samples and the way they interpret their results. But the 2024 electorate is not necessarily the same. In fact there’s solid evidence that it’s going to be a bit different. This means they are underestimating Kamala. When Trump won in 2016 he got 46.1% of the national popular vote. When he lost in 2020 he actually improved a bit to 46.8% of the national popular vote. The national popular vote doesn’t count of course, but his numbers were similar in the swing states. Trump has a ceiling of 47%, maybe a few tenths more. 9 times out of 10 the Democrat (or any normal candidate from either party) can beat that.
Women are pissed, and they are voting for Kamala in droves. Republicans are already regretting overturning Roe v. Wade and they’re going to regret it even more on Nov. 5. It is driving women even more toward the Democrats. There are abortion-related ballot questions in several states, and all of them will pass except Florida where they need 60%. This is going to push up the numbers for some Democrats, including Kamala.
A few Republicans are voting for Kamala. A number of Republicans and Nikki Haley voters are sick of Trump’s fascist aspirations and fomenting violence, and are going to vote for Kamala. High-profile Republicans are endorsing Kamala to save democracy, and they still hold sway with the moderate Nikki Haley voters who aren’t Trump cultists. How many? Probably not many, but if it’s even 0.3% that makes a huge difference.
Kamala’s ground game is smooth as silk and Trump’s sucks. Kamala’s field operation is reaching not only the base but rural voters and others the Democrats don’t usually reach. Trump outsources his to Elon Musk who knows jack squat about how to run it and the people he’s hired are grifting Trump’s campaign for money without putting much actual effort into the operation. This will make a difference, probably only a marginal one, but again even 0.3% is huge.
Finally, guess what? The Democrats are going to take back the House and keep the Senate. The same sampling issues that are underestimating Kamala are underestimating the Democrats’ chances in both chambers. It’ll likely be 50/50 in the Senate. Tester from Montana has a history of pulling out close races where it seems he’s behind, and he’s up against a carpetbagger who lied about being wounded in combat. Osborn has a serious chance in Nebraska and he will caucus with the Democrats. The Democrats even have an outside chance of knocking off the universally hated Ted Cruz, but I don’t think that will actually happen.
If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. Then I hope you all enjoy the end of the Republic and a complete wreckage of the economy. Replacing income tax with tariffs and deporting millions of people? LMAO every economist in the world knows this will drive inflation through the roof, shrink the economy, kill jobs and finally kill off the middle class. I hope you enjoy paying more for everything, picking your own fruits and vegetables and slaughtering your own cows and chickens. Also I hope you enjoy a less secure world, dominated by China and Russia rather than the USA and other free nations. But it’s not going to happen because we will have grown-up leadership from the Democrats.
Enjoy the blue wave!
