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Election season in Michigan, beautiful fall foliage, cider mills, football and….commercials!!! Political ads warning of taxes being raised and dangerous criminals running rampant, sports betting deposit bonuses, magical wonder drugs with a short list of side effects and new high calorie fast food meals make this the best time of year to be a Michigander.
Red, blue, red, purple, red, red and red we are all winners.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
The fallout of the debate was so disastrous Fetterman should drop and he should tell everyone to support Stern.
So I was listening to my local (alleged) conservative corporate owned AM radio fake conservatives interview a pollster today, and if there was one example of why many of why these polls are so worthless, it was his take on things. This man claimed that Republicans would win the House, only because they were only down 5 seats to start with, and on an average year the opposition party wins 30 seats and that is why. Nothing to do with messages or position, but he thought that is was a fait accompli anyway. Then he goes on to the Senate, and says that everything he is seeing is that the red wave just isn't what it is made out to be, and he projects Dems to keep Senate. His rationale was that "did you see all the "bad" Trump candidates that are great for a primary, but not good for an election? He said that is why all the Dems backed Trump candidates to get them on the ticket, because they knew they had "problems" winning on the next level. He even mentioned specific races like AZ with Masters (who is literally winning now) as an example of the "bad candidates" who won't win. Oh yeah he mentioned JD Vance too, which is fucking hilarious because Ohio has been trending Red for a long time, and yet again Vance is up in the polls....by 3 full points!!! It is like what are you even talking about??
It was TDS all over again as he explained how "extreme" these candidates were and how that would rule the day, and of course being tied to Trump just makes it worse. Keep in mind...this was the night AFTER Fetterman made a fool out of himself and Oz took a decent lead in the polls due to the debate. Yet he is STILL in denial and didn't even mention that race conveniently, a race that could determine control of the Senate (well not anymore, looking at RCP Projections). It was like last night did not even happen, and he has been in a cave for the past 2 weeks as literally every single R has picked up heavy steam in races that no one thought were even in play.
These are the people who are putting out your polls. These are the people who are completely divorced from reality, and are using confirmation bias to swing their opinion and numbers. This is why you can basically add 5 points to almost every poll for the R.
I vote in Florida our Gubernatorial election is soon, DeSantis should win very easily
Next is Washington D.C. for the GOP. And as far as Trump goes lol, but don't tell anyone i told you this (lol..) Trump gets out the way after DeSantis wins this Florida Gubernatorial Race here. After that I think the focus then changes totally to wining President. He is a real contender and young too.
LOL at Trump getting out of the way for anyone. Yeah we heard it here first. Right.Quote:
Originally Posted by garrett
It is going to be DeSantis/Lake in 2028. Hey that rhymes.....Desantis...Lake...in 28!!
I have a Predictit bet (as mentioned earlier) for 50-51 Republican Senate seats. It's almost impossible for me to lose on the low side now. However, I might lose on the high side. It's very possible that 52 or 53 will be the number, depending upon PA, GA, and AZ. If all 3 of those hit, if Nevada goes R, and there's no upsets either way in other states, the number will be 53.
This will be great for Republicans, who were left for dead regarding having the Senate, as recently as a few weeks ago.
However, this might not be so great long term. In 2010, Republicans nominated some horrible Tea Party candidates who threw away five somewhat easily winnable Senate seats, including Harry Reid's final shot in Nevada. While the election was overall a big success, those five wasted Senate opportunities stung, and Republicans (somewhat) learned their lesson about nominating unelectable candidates.
But with 2010 seeming a lifetime ago politically, those lessons have been forgotten. Republicans had a similar situation -- fairly winnable seats in a midterm election during the first term of a Democratic President -- and they nominated three bad candidates in Mehmet Oz, Blake Masters, and Herschel Walker. If all three of these guys go on to win -- partially thanks to Biden's incompetence, and partially thanks in Pennsylvania to Fetterman lying about his health -- this will be unfortunate positive reinforcement for the GOP.
Picture you have QTo in a tournament in the big blind, and a tight player raises under the gun, while another tight player 3-bets in middle position. Instead of folding the QT, you foolishly call it. If you flop the Q and then go busto against AA, you walk away second guessing yourself, and might not make that same mistake again. If you end up flopping a straight and triple up against two players who flopped sets and didn't improve, you feel like a genius, and might try this again.
The latter is what might happen to Republicans if they pull off 53 Senate seats. They might tell themselves, "See? Controversial MAGA candidates CAN win general elections!", and then they'll nominate more next time around.
Much like Democrats are going to have to take a harsh beating in this midterm to (possibly) change the recently over-woke ways, Republicans might have to take their own beatdown in order to realize that shitty MAGA candidates aren't the way to go.
The problem with the "electable republicans" is they are republican in name only. You don't get any kind of change with the RINO's. They rubber stamp everything libs do.
No, we don't need RINOs, just candidates like Youngkin or Desantis who are baggage-free and know how to hit the left hard regarding their idiotic positions.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
That's basically the correct strategy for Republicans these days. Get away from any kind of extremism, just be a solid conservative, and hammer the Dems on their unpopular views.
Listen to Druff sounding like a Dem operative claiming that MAGA R's are a problem for conservatives. You too have been brainwashed. The Republican party IS Trump and MAGA, not the fake as fucking old RINO's that need to be put down. And they are being put down. one by one.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffNo, we don't need RINOs, just candidates like Youngkin or Desantis who are baggage-free and know how to hit the left hard regarding their idiotic positions.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
That's basically the correct strategy for Republicans these days. Get away from any kind of extremism, just be a solid conservative, and hammer the Dems on their unpopular views.
Like Youngkin and Desantis don't tout Trump's policy line down to the period at the end of a sentence, and it isn't want every single Republican winning their races now are doing as well. They are ALL MAGA Republicans, every fucking one of them. They are WINNING....because that is what resonates with people. Not some fake soft lying RINO like a Romney.
Tell me all the ne young hot shot RINO's who are up and comers Druff and are about to take the government by storm. ZERO. TYou want Mitch fucking McConnel's in position of power?
The Dems said the same thing you just did about "hey let's prop up MAGA because they will never win..bad candidates!". They are ALL winning. And will continue to do so with the new MAGA wave of republicans coming into the fold now.
druff is an idiotQuote:
Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustlerListen to Druff sounding like a Dem operative claiming that MAGA R's are a problem for conservatives. You too have been brainwashed. The Republican party IS Trump and MAGA, not the fake as fucking old RINO's that need to be put down. And they are being put down. one by one.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Like Youngkin and Desantis don't tout Trump's policy line down to the period at the end of a sentence, and it isn't want every single Republican winning their races now are doing as well. They are ALL MAGA Republicans, every fucking one of them. They are WINNING....because that is what resonates with people. Not some fake soft lying RINO like a Romney.
Tell me all the ne young hot shot RINO's who are up and comers Druff and are about to take the government by storm. ZERO. TYou want Mitch fucking McConnel's in position of power?
The Dems said the same thing you just did about "hey let's prop up MAGA because they will never win..bad candidates!". They are ALL winning. And will continue to do so with the new MAGA wave of republicans coming into the fold now.
I don't care if a candidate privately is more right wing than he lets on. I just care what he says and does.Quote:
Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustlerListen to Druff sounding like a Dem operative claiming that MAGA R's are a problem for conservatives. You too have been brainwashed. The Republican party IS Trump and MAGA, not the fake as fucking old RINO's that need to be put down. And they are being put down. one by one.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Like Youngkin and Desantis don't tout Trump's policy line down to the period at the end of a sentence, and it isn't want every single Republican winning their races now are doing as well. They are ALL MAGA Republicans, every fucking one of them. They are WINNING....because that is what resonates with people. Not some fake soft lying RINO like a Romney.
Tell me all the ne young hot shot RINO's who are up and comers Druff and are about to take the government by storm. ZERO. TYou want Mitch fucking McConnel's in position of power?
The Dems said the same thing you just did about "hey let's prop up MAGA because they will never win..bad candidates!". They are ALL winning. And will continue to do so with the new MAGA wave of republicans coming into the fold now.
DeSantis is a good example. While MAGA types are trying to outlaw abortion completely in their states (big political mistake), DeSantis pushed for a 15 week limit, which is largely popular with independents and swing voters. That's smart politics. Dumb politics is obsessing over outlawing abortion and motivating women to find out and vote D.
I don't want RINOs. I want conservatives who can read the pulse of the people, and tailor their message to that. You don't want to create your own vulnerabities.
The MAGA candidates might win only due to Democrats being so awful and out of touch. It's not because middle of the road voters want them. I guarantee there's a ton of people in Pennsylvania who don't like Dr. Oz, but will reluctantly vote for him because Fetterman's brain is broken. But that doesn't speak to the quality of Oz as a candidate.
Republicans do best when they outright reject dumb shit from Democrats, focus upon that, and be careful not to become extreme themselves. See 1994.
Name them and cite examples. I would bet 80-90% of conservatives would be completely fine with the 15 weeks, and only crazy extremists in favor of all out bans/outlawing it completely. I highly doubt these people would cross over with MAGA or can be tied to it in some major way. These people have ALWAYS been Bible thumping extremists, Trump or MAGA doesn't have a damn thing to do with their position that has been held for 50 years running now. You think MAGA made them think that all of the sudden?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffI don't care if a candidate privately is more right wing than he lets on. I just care what he says and does.Quote:
Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustler
DeSantis is a good example. While MAGA types are trying to outlaw abortion completely in their states (big political mistake), DeSantis pushed for a 15 week limit, which is largely popular with independents and swing voters. That's smart politics. Dumb politics is obsessing over outlawing abortion and motivating women to find out and vote D.
I don't want RINOs. I want conservatives who can read the pulse of the people, and tailor their message to that. You don't want to create your own vulnerabities.
The MAGA candidates might win only due to Democrats being so awful and out of touch. It's not because middle of the road voters want them. I guarantee there's a ton of people in Pennsylvania who don't like Dr. Oz, but will reluctantly vote for him because Fetterman's brain is broken. But that doesn't speak to the quality of Oz as a candidate.
Republicans do best when they outright reject dumb shit from Democrats, focus upon that, and be careful not to become extreme themselves. See 1994.
I see a lot of anti Dixon ads in Michigan, but sometimes I wonder if they're just playing to the other extreme(dems: full trimester abortion/reps: no abortion whatsoever) and I think sometimes nothing will ever happen and both sides just use this bullshit as political chess pieces
I liked the way Trump governed from 2017-19. I didn't feel his policy was extreme. However, some of the candidates who have spawned from his ascension are either extreme or have some other baggage which makes them harder to elect.Quote:
Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustlerName them and cite examples. I would bet 80-90% of conservatives would be completely fine with the 15 weeks, and only crazy extremists in favor of all out bans/outlawing it completely. I highly doubt these people would cross over with MAGA or can be tied to it in some major way. These people have ALWAYS been Bible thumping extremists, Trump or MAGA doesn't have a damn thing to do with their position that has been held for 50 years running now. You think MAGA made them think that all of the sudden?Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Again, I am not looking for RINOs. I just want candidates who appeal to middle-of-the-road voters as well as conservatives, and don't just win by default because the Democrats are fucking up so badly.
Democrats are basically handing Republicans a large list of issues to use to their benefit. Race baiting/CRT, gender ideology, transitioning kids, socialized medicine, cashless bail, big cities turning into shitholes, college loan forgiveness, COVID restrictions, cutting parents out of decisions in public schools, late term abortion on demand, the list goes on and on. The average independent/moderate voter sides with the GOP on almost all of these issues. All Republicans need to do is keep highlighting the Democratic position on these things, and force them to answer to it. Candidates who do this enjoy big time success. The formula is simple, yet parts of the GOP are fucking this up. That's my point.
In '94, Newt Gingrich was able to get Republicans to put aside their differences, and unify to hammer at Democrats in areas where they were unpopular. It worked beautifully. Gingrich was not particularly good at legislating and declined in relevance after that, but his 1994 plan was extremely effective, and led to unprecedented GOP victories in heavily blue areas. While some of the issues we face in 2022 are substantially different than in 1994, the blueprint for GOP success is the same, and actually much easier, as Democrats in 1994 were far more reasonable than the ones today.
RCP Averages -
DeWine +21
DeSantis +11.2
Lake +11
Kemp +7.4
Rubio +7.4
Budd +4.5 (NC Senate)
R Johnson +3.3
Vance +2.2
Drazen +1.7 (Oregon!)
Lombardo +1.2 (Nev governor)
Logan +1 (Connecticut congress)
Walker +0.6
Laxalt +0.5 (Nev Senate)
Evers TIE
Dixon -3.1 (Michigan Gov)
Mastriano -6.4
Masters -1.5
Oz/Fetterman new poll should be out tomorrow, same with Zeldin/Hochuli. NY hasn't been polled in like 12 days?? Weird. Oz/Fetterman were tied a few days ago, not anymore.
didnt read anything but my strategy politically is to see who is more racist and sexist and vote for them because i'm racist and sexist
I think I'm going to sell out of my position of "not 52 seats" for Republicans. There's a good likelihood that it will end up with 52 seats.
Fetterman probably loses now after that debate, and Herschel Walker now has a pretty good shot at pulling out a win, due to expected high Republican voter pahticipation in Georgia.
Laxalt is increasingly likely to win Nevada. There's even the dark horse of Bolduc pulling off a GOP win in New Hampshire, and Masters pulling off a win in Arizona, but I think they will probably narrowly lose.
Anyway, between all of these, it's hard to imagine the GOP only scoring 2 seats above, which is what I'd need to win my 50-51 bet. Fortunately I had it structured in a way to where it's easy to buy out of my "no 52" side.
Right it's "not" gonna be 52 seats, it will be 53.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Quote:
Originally Posted by some user
I hope that the POS gov goes down in the Mitten.
Biden won Washington State by 20 points.
Their Senate race is now in a dead heat, a race no one on the planet thought a R had a shot at.
https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp...eport-1029.pdf
Trafalgar notoriously leans R.Quote:
Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustler
KHQ-TV took a poll around the same timeframe, and came up with Murray +6.
This will probably be a closer race than people expect, but Murray will probably squeak by with a 2-point win or something.
A complete fiasco for the Dems would see Rs winning the Senate seats in NV, PA, GA, NH, AZ, WA, and CO, giving them 56 seats (!!).
The number which looks most likely right now is 52 (NV/PA/GA going R, AZ/WA/CO/NH going D), but 53 is probably second-most likely, with AZ going R.
The House should be a pretty harsh beatdown though.
Chances are fairly low at this point that Democrats will keep the Senate, and it's virtually impossible for them to keep the House.
Biden about to be neutered.
John Fetterman Smollett
https://twitter.com/MostlyPeacefull/...69608230920193
:lol
SplitThis above said "scumbag democrats"
Spitthis leaking blood, and clear hates Liberal Agenda we see here so is probably a fortunate or rich Right Wing Reduplican Conservative who thinks everyone's entire elf, is form or to Pit viewed as which side of the aisle you Vote from, well thats disgusting. So id hope you have a better Heart than you seem to have any grasp on peoples real Political Ideologies here Spit
have a nce day SPit
Trafalgar leans ACCURATE, not "right". They have been the most accurate pollster for the last decade. The only reason it looks like they "lean right" is because every other poll "leans left" by 5 fucking points.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffTrafalgar notoriously leans R.Quote:
Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustler
KHQ-TV took a poll around the same timeframe, and came up with Murray +6.
This will probably be a closer race than people expect, but Murray will probably squeak by with a 2-point win or something.
A complete fiasco for the Dems would see Rs winning the Senate seats in NV, PA, GA, NH, AZ, WA, and CO, giving them 56 seats (!!).
The number which looks most likely right now is 52 (NV/PA/GA going R, AZ/WA/CO/NH going D), but 53 is probably second-most likely, with AZ going R.
The House should be a pretty harsh beatdown though.
Chances are fairly low at this point that Democrats will keep the Senate, and it's virtually impossible for them to keep the House.
Biden about to be neutered.
Every single other poll is over sampled with Dems by usually 4-6 points. Of course you believe them.
Of course you fall for the bullshit.
Lol at the fucked up lefties trying to blame the righties on haggy pelosis faggot drunk hammer head husband. Rofl.
WSJ: The GOP has seen a shift in its favor among several voter groups, including Latino voters and women, and particularly white suburban women. That group shifted 26 points away from Democrats since the Journal's August poll and now favors the GOP by 15%.
I am officially upping my prediction for Senate to 54-46.
I think by next week this curb stomping will be official. It is nothing but red charging (hard) in damn near every single race.
https://nypost.com/2022/11/02/gov-ka...ra-bennefield/
Kathy Hochul is finished in New York. In this article we learn that a person brutally attacked a mom of 3, was caught on video and then released without bail. He returns to finish off the job and kills the mom in front of her kids.
Biden is now trying to pander to everyone by being the warrior against junk fees charged by hotels and ticket outlets.
Yeah, Joe, we all hate those fees, but where were you on this matter for the past 2 years? Suddenly this is a big concern when we're 5 days from the election? No big deal about the labor shortage, runaway inflation, and high gas prices though, right?
https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1588199321568157697
Well, at least you can rest upon your stellar foreign policy record. Oh, wait...
This might actually happen. Walker is starting to look like he's going to win Georgia, Oz is likely to take PA after that awful Fetterman debate performance, and now it really just comes down to what Masters (AZ) and Bolduc (NH) do. It is unlikely Laxalt loses Nevada at this point, and the rest of the races are likely to go with the presumed frontrunner.Quote:
Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustler
This has all the signs of a 1994-like beatdown. I think I'm going to lose my bet on the 50-52 R seats. I did throw in another bet on the Oregon gubernatorial race going R, at near even money, so at least I should probably get some back there.
I am considering firing now on Bolduc, as I can still get a dog line there. That's also a good hedge against my 50-52 R bet, which I no longer like.
It's not even just the Senate races, down the ticket in local/congressional races we are seeing the same thing happen. There are 20-30 house races that no one thought R had a chance that are now looking like red will be winning. MIAMI DADE is now going red. A major metro area on the East Coast. This is going to be apocalyptic.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffThis might actually happen. Walker is starting to look like he's going to win Georgia, Oz is likely to take PA after that awful Fetterman debate performance, and now it really just comes down to what Masters (AZ) and Bolduc (NH) do. It is unlikely Laxalt loses Nevada at this point, and the rest of the races are likely to go with the presumed frontrunner.Quote:
Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustler
This has all the signs of a 1994-like beatdown. I think I'm going to lose my bet on the 50-52 R seats. I did throw in another bet on the Oregon gubernatorial race going R, at near even money, so at least I should probably get some back there.
I am considering firing now on Bolduc, as I can still get a dog line there. That's also a good hedge against my 50-52 R bet, which I no longer like.
Rofl
George Soros poured $126 million to Democrats for the 2022 midterms
That makes him the largest donor of this cycle and it’s not even close.
In comparison, Russia spent $100k on Facebook ads in 2016.
Enjoying your two scoops of DEMOCRACY, goy?
National Guard deploys cybersecurity units to 14 states to oversee midterm elections.
This is totally normal, fellas.
California and Nevada are going to have rain and snow on election day.
California is dark blue, so only some local House races could be affected, as more Republicans tend to vote on election day itself.
Nevada is the bigger problem, as there are close gubernatorial and Senate races there. Reno and other northern Nevada towns, which are more red, are going to get snow tomorrow. Hmmm....
538/NYT is now predicting a 30% chance of 56-44 Senate.
That is how bad it is for the groomers.
Just a harbinger.Quote:
Originally Posted by devidee
Where are the 56 going to come from?Quote:
Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustler
Assuming all big R leaders go on to win, the GOP would need 7 additional victories.
They will probably win in PA, NV, and GA. Might win in AZ and NH. But that's only 54.
They would need CO and WA to make 56, and those are looking pretty unlikely. Keep in mind CO has been trending bluer with each election.
I think the best realistic case for the GOP is 54-46, and the worst case is 49-51, though 54 is a lot more likely than 49, because that would require the GOP to lose both PA and GA (plus all the others I listed), which isn't likely at this point.
I still think Drazan wins in OR and becomes the first R governor there in 40 years. However, the last two polls showing some D voters who went to Johnson (Independent) "coming home" reluctantly to Kotek. So I guess we'll see.
Kathy Hochul could be the shock loser in NY, similar to 1994 when Pataki surprised Mario Cuomo. In 1994, aside from a red wave coming throughout the country, Cuomo also had the problem of lacking support outside of NYC. That might be the same issue this time, except it might be even worse in NYC, as the city has turned to absolute shit under Democratic rule recently. NYC was also shit in 1994, but rebounded in the mid-90s (thanks to Rudy Giuliani, who doesn't get enough credit for it).
The mail-in voting is going to create a huge hassle again, with conspiracy theories galore. The problem is that uncounted mail-in ballots, which favor Democrats, will be the latest votes tallied, thus making it appear like the election was "stolen" in close ones which go to Democrats. They really need to just do away with this shit. Even if the security of such voting isn't a problem (which I have my doubts about), it's bad optics at a time when trust in our electoral process is at an all-time low. Furthermore, early voting fucks up the election, as late-breaking changes (such as Fetterman's horrible debate performance) become less impactful. There's a reason we have an election day.
Anyway, I think tomorrow will be a better-than-expected day for Republicans. I have a feeling that people are afraid to reveal their true feelings to pollsters, given the social media shaming that goes on against the GOP nowadays. If you work for a company where your chances for advancement will be hindered by admitting you vote Republican, you might just lie to a pollster, as that's the safest way to go about things.
Nevada might be a dark horse for Democrats to unexpectedly win. While I think the GOP will take both the gubernatorial and Senate races, I wouldn't be shocked to see this go to the Dems. Nevada kinda beats to its own drum. Remember, it was one of just two "swing" states (the other being Colorado) where Hillary outperformed polling expectations.