lol @ nate silver giving trump a 12% chance
lol..@ every poll i see or read.
lol @ trump being an underdog in fla.
put 85% of portfolio in trump winning fla and spread out the other 15% in penn and a couple other strong +ML plays
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lol @ nate silver giving trump a 12% chance
lol..@ every poll i see or read.
lol @ trump being an underdog in fla.
put 85% of portfolio in trump winning fla and spread out the other 15% in penn and a couple other strong +ML plays
U.S. Presidential Election Props
Second Presidential Debate Total Viewers
Under 67½ Million -150
Over 67½ Million +110
Under is money?
I honestly have no idea. Last debate was 73 million. What's the reasoning for lower numbers this debate? Is it competing with football or something?Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Facts don't care about your feelings.Quote:
Originally Posted by mulva
Unwillingness to endure another uncomfortable experience.Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOLI honestly have no idea. Last debate was 73 million. What's the reasoning for lower numbers this debate? Is it competing with football or something?Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Reasonable number have already voted.
Minds already made up @ this late date.
The novelty of the two together has expired
Yeah, football, I guess.
If you don’t know then I sure don’t. Just a thought.
Is there a new podcast out? I enjoyed the last one.
Yeah, it's fine reasoning, I just don't know enough or have enough data to be able to make a guess. I'd want to see data from previous debates. How did the final debate numbers compare with the first one.Quote:
Originally Posted by SanlmarUnwillingness to endure another uncomfortable experience.Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
Reasonable number have already voted.
Minds already made up @ this late date.
The novelty of the two together has expired
Yeah, football, I guess.
If you don’t know then I sure don’t. Just a thought.
Is there a new podcast out? I enjoyed the last one.
I believe StarSpangledGamblers is dropping a new podcast tomorrow, and then there will be an emergency call-in show following the debate on Thursday.
How's your Florida position looking?Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOLYeah, it's fine reasoning, I just don't know enough or have enough data to be able to make a guess. I'd want to see data from previous debates. How did the final debate numbers compare with the first one.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
I believe StarSpangledGamblers is dropping a new podcast tomorrow, and then there will be an emergency call-in show following the debate on Thursday.
At this point, what's your total electoral college prediction?
I'm upside down a bit in Florida. I am holding until expiration unless something changes there.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sloppy JoeHow's your Florida position looking?Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
At this point, what's your total electoral college prediction?
I still have FL, NC, and AZ going for Biden. I have IA, OH, and TX going for Trump but I'm still bullish on Biden in TX (and OH to a lesser extent) relative to his price.
538 just released an interactive electoral map. Have you played around with this yet PLOP?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...-election-map/
What makes this different from a typical election map is that every state is in probabilistic flux. Once you pick a state for either candidate, that probability becomes 100% and it reruns the 40k simulations based on their model.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rick Sanchez
pretty sweet. and all i had to do was click FL, GA (lock), OH (lock) and IA (lock) for Trump and hes over 50% chance, ya'll are in denial this isnt the sequel #DISH$TRUCK2
clicking just TX, OH and IA, states trump won in 2016 by at least 8% puts him at 32% FFS
plop, u need to bail man
sorry are we still cosplaying that texas is blue or nah?
I agree that he probably wins all of those states, but they're by no means a lock, especially FL and GA. Guaranteeing those states while leaving states like MI as tossups will of course be a great outcome for Trump. Basically this is like getting it all in on the flop with 40% equity, agreeing to run it 6 times, and your opponent generously spots you the first 2 runs.Quote:
Originally Posted by thesidedishQuote:
Originally Posted by Rick Sanchez
pretty sweet. and all i had to do was click FL, GA (lock), OH (lock) and IA (lock) for Trump and hes over 50% chance, ya'll are in denial this isnt the sequel #DISH$TRUCK2
If you lock in FL, GA, OH, and IA for Trump, but you also lock in obvious Dem strongholds WA, OR, CA, CO, NM, NY, IL, and VA for Biden (all states that he is 90%+ to win), then Trump's probability goes down to 44%. This is because Trump technically had some equity in those states, just as Biden had some in FL/GA/OH/IA.
click Pa for democrats and see what happens even if you give trump every state you mentionedQuote:
Originally Posted by thesidedish
damn click on wisconsin though, if that goes red, trump will win
(like i've said from the beginning by the way)
LOL WTFQuote:
Originally Posted by blake
Yes bitchQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Texas literally has the highest voter turnout of any state right now. They've already exceeded 50% of the 2016 turnout, with 13 days left.
The map is fake news. It won't let me pick Hawaii or New York for Trump (which is what the highly reliable Northpol Model has).
Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOLYes bitchQuote:
Originally Posted by sonatine
Texas literally has the highest voter turnout of any state right now. They've already exceeded 50% of the 2016 turnout, with 13 days left.
so you're betting a shit ton of $ on that premise. very dumb, bad gambling. a state should be within about 5% in 2016 if u think it will flip otherwise u are just being homer trash. shit, trump only lost by CO & VA by 5% and I still wouldnt dream of taking him 10/1 there
Did CO and VA have senate races that were within a couple points in 2018 and massive demographic shifts making them redder by the day? Even Druff acknowledges the Texas (and Georgia) problem for Republicans. He just thinks it's a 2024 problem.Quote:
Originally Posted by thesidedishQuote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
so you're betting a shit ton of $ on that premise. very dumb, bad gambling. a state should be within about 5% in 2016 if u think it will flip otherwise u are just being homer trash. shit, trump only lost by CO & VA by 5% and I still wouldnt dream of taking him 10/1 there
But no, I don't have a "shit ton" on Texas. I have like $750. I wish I had more at +325 odds, but don't think I'll see that line again.
I'll propose a wager that I assume you'll want to jump at. I'll take Biden to win Texas. You take Trump to win the electoral college. Any other result is wash (Biden wins EC but loses Texas). $500, even odds. Can escrow with Druff or do it on credit, up to you.Quote:
Originally Posted by thesidedishQuote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
so you're betting a shit ton of $ on that premise. very dumb, bad gambling. a state should be within about 5% in 2016 if u think it will flip otherwise u are just being homer trash. shit, trump only lost by CO & VA by 5% and I still wouldnt dream of taking him 10/1 there
Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOLI'll propose a wager that I assume you'll want to jump at. I'll take Biden to win Texas. You take Trump to win the electoral college. Any other result is wash (Biden wins EC but loses Texas). $500, even odds. Can escrow with Druff or do it on credit, up to you.Quote:
Originally Posted by thesidedish
ya ill do that and also take trump 300 EVs @ +450, both $500 on credit
PLOP help a brotha out here...
this makes no sense...this has to be at best a 20:1 shot...
EDIT: nevermind, for some reason they reached a cap on the number of traders in this market on the 19th so i'm guessing that price is stale...
Yeah it’s amazing how much pull Wisconsin gets in that 538 map.
If you fill in all the “cut the shit” states It shows 88/12 Biden.
CTS states plus Wis for Biden and it goes to 97/3
CTS states and Wis for Trump and it flips all the way to 27/70 (opens up a tie).
No other state gets that pull
Markets are capped at 5,000 traders. So in order to trade that market you need to have traded at least 1 share at some point to be a participant. But yeah, it's free money. It's not a stale price, it's just people being silly.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenisPLOP help a brotha out here...
this makes no sense...this has to be at best a 20:1 shot...
EDIT: nevermind, for some reason they reached a cap on the number of traders in this market on the 19th so i'm guessing that price is stale...
Biden is trading at 10% to drop out before November 1st. Just go take the free 10 cents and then when it expires on November 1st move the money into another election market.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ore-November-1
There's a lot of "free money" markets out there if you don't have the stomach to gamble on swing states.
I mean if you give Michigan to Trump, his odds go up to 85%. If you give PA to Trump he goes to 72%. Give him WI and it goes to 73%. It's because PA/WI/MI are pretty heavily correlated. The model thinks of those 3, MI is the most difficult. So it assumes that if he wins MI he's heavily favored to win WI and PA. It also means you're likely winning FL, AZ and thus the election.Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Booked.Quote:
Originally Posted by thesidedishQuote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
ya ill do that and also take trump 300 EVs @ +450, both $500 on credit
For the record:
I have Biden to win Texas, and Dish has Trump to win the election. $500, even odds. Any other result is a push
I have Trump to get under 300 EVs. Dish has Trump to get 300+ EVs. My $2,250 to Dish's $500.
We agree to let Druff mediate any disputes that may come up.
Good luck
Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOLBooked.Quote:
Originally Posted by thesidedish
For the record:
I have Biden to win Texas, and Dish has Trump to win the election. $500, even odds. Any other result is a push
I have Trump to get under 300 EVs. Dish has Trump to get 300+ EVs. My $2,250 to Dish's $500.
We agree to let Druff mediate any disputes that may come up.
Good luck
no excuses not to pay, all scams have to be accepted as a paid result or ban
Love how PLOL is the most popular poster almost overnight on here because of this thread.
Its like the kid in HS who shows his massive cock to 1 girl in school and now every girl(and gay guy) is eye fucking him and trying to start up a conversation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by OSA
and yet he'll be gone soon, hes the new hongthonger
Sanlmar, there's a new SSG podcast out. It's a worthwhile listen. You can find it here:
https://starspangledgamblers.com/202...mart-hysteria/
Edit: Lol, I just listened and I got a shout-out towards the end at 46:25
Quote:
Originally Posted by thesidedishQuote:
Originally Posted by OSA
and yet he'll be gone soon, hes the new hongthonger
Are you upset dish that you weren't the kid with the big dick in HS? lol
Quote:
Originally Posted by OSAQuote:
Originally Posted by thesidedish
Are you upset dish that you weren't the kid with the big dick in HS? lol
quit being a perv moron. i was about to call him the new hongthonger anyways, figured i could use ur post too
found out this morning i could parlay trump + senate winner on sportsbook so naturally took some, gonna be banking 1000s
Bet $ 100.00 to win $ 1,150.00Result: Pending
2020 US Presidential Election - Odds to win the 2020 Electoral Vote
Donald Trump vs Joe Biden11/03/20 12:00 ESTDonald Trump +150
2020 Election US Senate Winner - Arizona
Martha McSally (R) vs Mark Kelly (D)11/03/20 12:00 ESTMartha McSally (R) +400
Bet $ 287.49 to win $ 1,056.21Result: Pending
2020 US Presidential Election - Odds to win the 2020 Electoral Vote
Donald Trump vs Joe Biden11/03/20 12:00 ESTDonald Trump +150
2020 Election US Senate Winner - Iowa
Joni Ernst (R) vs Theresa Greenfield (D)11/03/20 12:00 ESTJoni Ernst (R) -115
Bet $ 280.00 to win $ 717.87Result: Pending
2020 US Presidential Election - Odds to win the 2020 Electoral Vote
Donald Trump vs Joe Biden11/03/20 12:00 ESTDonald Trump +150
2020 Election US Senate Winner - Georgia
David Perdue (R) vs John Ossoff (D)11/03/20 12:00 ESTDavid Perdue (R) -235
I like it. This is really dumb on your book's part. You should take advantageQuote:
Originally Posted by thesidedish
LOL what book is that? Can you parlay states? I can't believe they would let you do that for correlated props
listen, dish, your instinct is going to be to try to fondle balls when youre sucking your mandatory tranny dicks.
be warned; there probably arent any balls.
Thread delivers
So many people have already voted.
There are so few undecided in a very polarized race, as well.
I didn’t watch debate because my vote is non refundable.
Thus, I will be intrigued to follow how Plop trades this. Will there really be any volatility?
Who the fuck wears a suit while riding a tractor and pitching straw lolQuote:
Originally Posted by badguy23You heard it here first!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
Greenfield is the pick in Iowa
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wzT1kO_-xbQ
Once again, we are helplessly hoping that our absolutely retarded system does not come back to fuck us.Quote:
Originally Posted by DalyAverage Democrat citizen night of the election:Quote:
Originally Posted by Daly
Oh a tie - so it goes to the house. Seems fair.
House has a big majority of Democrats - Biden would win. Seems fair given the scenario.
Oh not all electoral college voters are legally bound to vote the way the stare did so trump could still win. I hope everybody does the right thing.
OK good everyone pledged to uphold the state vote - so it does go to the house, Biden Wins.
What do you mean each state in the house gets one vote? Majority within the state gets the one vote?
What do you mean The GOP has the by State Majority????????
Fucking Trump wins??? WHAT THE FUCK.
At least we get VP Biden again.