Rats are so hungry in NYC that they are going after birds.
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Rats are so hungry in NYC that they are going after birds.
You gotta find another source that isn't a tabloid if you want to make other people wish they were as smart as you. Even some rando on twitter would be better.Quote:
Originally Posted by BiffCo99
Nothing would please me more than to see people move out and things to get cheaper in my upper east side neighborhood.
But a lot of what you guys are seeing is extreme examples of good camera work. I can drive down midtown Saturday 7am and it is desolate- Covid or not. It is an office park that is currently closed. It does not represent the other 99% of NYC.
Within my immediate area, several businesses closed. But at the same time, at least 3 new have opened. Who would open an ice cream place with $10 small ice creams heading into the winter, I have no idea. They might be getting great incentives from the landlord. With people coming back from Summer and school reopening soon, this week has been extremely busy. Rush hour in and out of the city is back to pre-covid crappines this week. Restaurants and bars are flooded with people.
I would LOVE to see a real economic hit so that maybe I could afford those 2 bedrooms across the street that are currently selling for 2.5-3.5 million.
But deep inside I know the reality: the stock market is booming. Rich people are getting even richer now. They left town as is typical every summer. Just as during normal times, you can walk down Central Park and look up the residential skyscrapers to see that they are mostly dark each evening. At that level, people have many houses and this is just one of them. It is the poor people who are mostly moving out - as usual- and the cheap immigrant operated bodega that are closing.
Cuomo put out a report that 400k moved outta NY. And the numbers prolly higher. Thats not camera work. I have a friend living in UWS, people are leaving and theres 2 homeless ppl on his block alone.Quote:
Originally Posted by apwiz
Check this out. You would have to blow the landlord to get type of deal prior.
https://streeteasy.com/rental/320711...rental_listing
Holy shit that’s cheap...
What’s the normal freight on a place like that? Gotta be like $7,000-8,000/month...
https://streeteasy.com/building/260-...t-new_york/c4b
IN CHELSEA.... 4 MONTHS FREE LOL
It has the price history listed.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
A 3 bedroom 7-8k a month is a nice luxury building with a view and private outdoor space. And not 800 sf.
Considering that NYC has the amenities of Podunk, Pennsylvania during Covid, the rent should be similar during Covid. This will change as things open up.Quote:
Originally Posted by OSA
"Discounts" are a way to lock people into expensive leases. Notice that this is 4 months free on 12 month lease at which point you are back to getting screwed. In January, you are back to paying $5,000/month. There is no cheaper rent. There is only a temporary discount during a time when you don't get the NYC "lifestyle" anyway.
BTW, the way that the rent price is displayed is usually post-discount, another trick of the NYC rental trade.
NYC is a highly mobile city. NYT did similar analysis and a lot of people insta-left in March. This is true.Quote:
Originally Posted by OSA
What I'm sharing with you is that especially in the past week or so, lots of people are back. My guess is that it's because schools are reopening, typical vacation season is ending, and a lot of companies initially had Sept 1 as return date. Rush hour traffic this week is almost back to normal in a lot of areas.
In April, the city was pretty damn desolate and felt like a zombie set in many places. I saw a lot of the city because I would run on the city streets. My 10 mile+ runs took me all over manhattan but also big chunks of Brooklyn and touched on a good bit of Queens. It was empty in most places. As of Sept 6, it's nothing like it was, not even close.
It's not back 100%. There are still plenty of permanent or temporary store closures. Lots of things are still closed, or on restricted reopening schedule. I would say it's 70% back. Some neighborhoods are more affected than others. Midtown and Times Square are still pretty empty, as one would expect from a tourist trap and an office park. Some service industry neighborhoods are supposedly suffering still as well...
On UES, there does seem to be a lot more homeless. I don't know why. It probably has something to do with some NYC social service changes or closures or whatever.
A friend of mine lived right across from Natural History museum in a pretty tiny studio. The rent was $1650.Quote:
Originally Posted by OSA
Have a closer look at unit rentals in this specific building. I'm seeing about 10 similar units in this building renting for about the same 4K price... in 2019... before Corona. Rents on Manhattan are expensive, but not all of Manhattan has Tribeca glass building rents.
Well, If I would move into any place in the city, Id ask for a 2 yr lease for that reason.
Ill never see NYC as empty as it was in April. When you went outside, you felt like you were the only person alive.
Pretty brave of you going on those long runs. Whats your avg mile? Ever since I got my treadmill, Ive been watching Milesplit vids on youtube, cause they make running look so effortlessly. Plus their shirtless which is a plus.
interesting...didnt see that when i scrolled through...Quote:
Originally Posted by duped_samaritanIt has the price history listed.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenis
A 3 bedroom 7-8k a month is a nice luxury building with a view and private outdoor space. And not 800 sf.
always thought places like UES, UWS, tribeca, etc. had just crazy expensive rents for multi-bedroom units...
learn something new i guess...
It's 850 square feet. The 2 smaller bedrooms probably don't fit both a dresser and a full size bed.Quote:
Originally Posted by GambleBotsChafedPenisinteresting...didnt see that when i scrolled through...Quote:
Originally Posted by duped_samaritan
It has the price history listed.
A 3 bedroom 7-8k a month is a nice luxury building with a view and private outdoor space. And not 800 sf.
always thought places like UES, UWS, tribeca, etc. had just crazy expensive rents for multi-bedroom units...
learn something new i guess...
Probably mostly NYU/Juilliard/John Jay students and people that have been there for 30 years and pay < 50% market rate bc of rent control.
Indeed... most of the incentives are terrible given that a Tribeca apartment in April was worth about the same as an apartment in Podunk, Pennsylvania - and arguably less. Even if it was half price, it was still overpriced. But now might be a good time to score a multi year lease. Most landlords are not that dumb but maybe some of them bought into Covid hysteria.Quote:
Originally Posted by OSA
My long runs are about 10-18 miles. The empty streets were awesome for running. It was the parks I was scared of. Most of Central Park was quite full - it was like a Saturday every day, all day. Prospect Park where my gf lives was crowded also. The streets felt a lot safer and I got to explore quite a few neighborhoods.
This week marked a very big jump in crowds and traffic. Driving this week seemed as painful as during normal times. Bars and restaurants are pretty crowded in many areas. I am guessing that a lot of it has to do with school year starting and people simply coming back from their Summer vacations. Parking sucks again. :(
Quote:
Originally Posted by apwizIndeed... most of the incentives are terrible given that a Tribeca apartment in April was worth about the same as an apartment in Podunk, Pennsylvania - and arguably less. Even if it was half price, it was still overpriced. But now might be a good time to score a multi year lease. Most landlords are not that dumb but maybe some of them bought into Covid hysteria.Quote:
Originally Posted by OSA
My long runs are about 10-18 miles. The empty streets were awesome for running. It was the parks I was scared of. Most of Central Park was quite full - it was like a Saturday every day, all day. Prospect Park where my gf lives was crowded also. The streets felt a lot safer and I got to explore quite a few neighborhoods.
This week marked a very big jump in crowds and traffic. Driving this week seemed as painful as during normal times. Bars and restaurants are pretty crowded in many areas. I am guessing that a lot of it has to do with school year starting and people simply coming back from their Summer vacations. Parking sucks again. :(
10-18 miles. Damn. You must 5'10 or under. Thats alot of pain on the knees. Prospect Park is so nice. I like it so much better than Central Park. Much less horseshit
Mark Geragos is a fairly prominent celebrity attorney (Colin Kaepernick is his most famous client) whose office in in downtown LA. He was recently in NYC and said for all the negative attention NYC has gotten, downtown LA is actually worse as it pertains to homelessness and filth and general despair.
I am not sure if this says more about NYC or LA though.
Pffft. 160 CEO’s, what do they know? They’ve obviously been brainwashed by Trump tweets and fringe right wing media. Idiots.Quote:
Originally Posted by OSA
You gonna pull a Druff and pretend like you didn't realize that you were wrong about NYPost being a tabloid and the rent for that apt you posted is the same asking price as 2018?Quote:
Originally Posted by OSA
Its 2020, ALL News are tabloids. I might have been wrong about that listing but check this out...Quote:
Originally Posted by duped_samaritanYou gonna pull a Druff and pretend like you didn't realize that you were wrong about NYPost being a tabloid and the rent for that apt you posted is the same asking price as 2018?Quote:
Originally Posted by OSA
https://vm.tiktok.com/ZMJAb3BQb/
This guy has great info about current renting in NYC. Should def check out his channel. Agents and landlord are using every trick in the book now and with evictions being banned till end of year theyll only scheme and scam more to keep the price up and get them rented
dibasio is done in november 2021.
he's content of doing what he's doing, he doesn't care who he pisses off because this is his last term. his wife and daughter are also nut's.
he's gonna burn bridges left and right
the big selling feature for the new mayoral candidate's, like most will be safety and well being..as well as bring back biness, and making ny great again......the door is open wide for a republican in 21
At the height of the pandemic, I would often look at big residential buildings to see how many lights are on. At many buildings with 100s of apartments, only but a handful of lights were turned on during early evenings. It was eerie.
With schools reopening and people coming back from Summer vacations, this is no longer the case. Driving over Queensboro bridge last night, I was extremely surprised how many lights were on. In many buildings, it seemed like 90%+ of the lights were on. Streets are full, outdoor dining places seem to do brisk business. Driving out of the city (queens/bklyn/nj) is painful again.
A good number of businesses closed their doors. But several have opened and they are actually crowded. I wonder if they locked up unusually great lease incentives.
Not all neighborhoods are like this. Some tourist spots and office park spots are still fairly empty. It doesn't feel normal yet, but part of that might be just me.
NYC dubbed anarchist jurisdiction by DOJ.
https://twitter.com/johncardillo/sta...40566584881155
Biden's America!Quote:
Originally Posted by BiffCo99
#BidenRiots #BidensAmerica #AltLeftExtremists
Landlords are still not really giving a fuck and refusing to renegotiate leases so I don't really get their strategy when it comes to keeping and acquiring tenants in their houses. Mine wont budge because there's an empty room in my house(been so for the past 4 months) so they cant afford to give me a break.
Something tells me that if they cant get the agreed upon rent, they would rather have the apartments vacant.
Quote:
Originally Posted by OSA
something i picked up in the bay area back in the early dot com real estate boom days.. and i dont know if this is the same situation as ny but i dont see why it wouldnt be honestly..
- there are weird tax advantages to empty apartments
- landlords will do this 'pass around the same dollar' thing where they just endlessly sell apartments to each other over and over to keep sales figures artificially inflated
- part of that grift is doing renovations on the apartment, which keep the apartments unoccupied and can also be weird tax shit, multiplied by how much they agree to mark up fees with their contractors
you get the idea hopefully. landlords know what they are doing and in NYC, where an overwhelming percent of real estate is owned by hassids, you have the bonus of an insular culture based on under the table/off the record transactions already so working the system to lose a penny instead of a pound is burnt in. in the bay area, all the property was owned by chinese. exact same dynamic obviously.
watch; a lot of empty buildings are going to mysteriously start to have weirdly disastrous electrical fires soon.
So fucking true. But, a block away theres a room in a building thats 15% cheaper AND it has a rooftop, gym and pool table. Not the only building to. So, its really a no brainer as to what my decision should be. In Feb, both our leases are over and theyll have 3 empty rooms instead of one. Whatever.Quote:
Originally Posted by sonatineQuote:
Originally Posted by OSA
something i picked up in the bay area back in the early dot com real estate boom days.. and i dont know if this is the same situation as ny but i dont see why it wouldnt be honestly..
- there are weird tax advantages to empty apartments
- landlords will do this 'pass around the same dollar' thing where they just endlessly sell apartments to each other over and over to keep sales figures artificially inflated
- part of that grift is doing renovations on the apartment, which keep the apartments unoccupied and can also be weird tax shit, multiplied by how much they agree to mark up fees with their contractors
you get the idea hopefully. landlords know what they are doing and in NYC, where an overwhelming percent of real estate is owned by hassids, you have the bonus of an insular culture based on under the table/off the record transactions already so working the system to lose a penny instead of a pound is burnt in. in the bay area, all the property was owned by chinese. exact same dynamic obviously.
watch; a lot of empty buildings are going to mysteriously start to have weirdly disastrous electrical fires soon.
I dont think they even budged on their asking price for the empty room which supports your theory.
It is rather amusing to read random people comment how landlords who have made millions in real estate are dumb about real estate and should be doing X, Y, and Z. Maybe - just maybe - it would be more constructive to understand why things are the way they are?
Recently, someone explained to me exactly why commercial spaces are vacant and it goes back to commercial leases. Here is what is happening:
Let's say an investor buys a 5 unit, with each unit renting for 20K/mo. That's 1.2M/year and investor paid about 13x multiple to buy the place, or about 15.6M. That commercial mortgage is in good standing based on valuation of the property - valuation that is based on rents. If the valuation of the property falls, the mortgage can go into technical default and the investor has to cover the gap in lost valuation. Let's say that 2 units are vacant and investor wants at least some money so they rent them at 10k each. All the sudden, the property is bringing in 80k/month or 960K/year which values the property at 12.48M which is less than 15.6M old valuation. This 3.125M gap becomes an immediate investor responsibility and they have to write the bank a check for 3.125M or risk default on their commercial mortgage. In other words, to fill those 2 units and get 20K/month extra rent, they would have to write the bank 3.125M check.
You might be wondering how these investors can continue to hold on to this investment with 2 units vacant. This is answered by standard commercial lease terms as well, which stipulate that when units are vacant, the investor can pay only proportional part of the mortgage, in this case 3/5ths of the mortgage (since 2/5ths is vacant.) That part of the debt is postponed and generally due at loan end. That can mean disaster for the investor at the end, but at least they keep control of the asset right now - and keep cash flow positive for many years.
Generally speaking this is not how commercial real estate works.Quote:
Originally Posted by apwiz
Quote:
Originally Posted by apwiz
Understood. Same goes with residential as well?
https://therealdeal.com/2020/10/07/w...disrepair/amp/
The boards, which represent the 807 unit owners in the three buildings, allege the city has allowed North 5th Street Pier and Park to “fall into a state of complete disrepair, overridden with crime and unlawful activities,” according to a complaint filed last week in New York Supreme Court.
Their complaints, per the article:Quote:
Originally Posted by OSA
- inadequate garbage disposal that’s led to a “significant rat infestation problem,”
- burnt out lightbulbs and
- failure to ensure dog owners abide by leash laws.
- The complaint also says skateboarders and motorcyclists have run roughshod through the area.
- after one call for assistance, “responding police officers did not arrive on the scene until over two hours later.”
Sounds like total chaos, doesn't it, with people ignoring leash laws and skateboarders using their park. lol
***
But overall it is true that things are unquestionably worse. There is a lot more homeless people on the street and in my neighborhood there have been several reports of phone snatchings. But it's far from the calamity some people think is happening.
Quote:
Originally Posted by apwizTheir complaints, per the article:Quote:
Originally Posted by OSA
- inadequate garbage disposal that’s led to a “significant rat infestation problem,”
- burnt out lightbulbs and
- failure to ensure dog owners abide by leash laws.
- The complaint also says skateboarders and motorcyclists have run roughshod through the area.
- after one call for assistance, “responding police officers did not arrive on the scene until over two hours later.”
Sounds like total chaos, doesn't it, with people ignoring leash laws and skateboarders using their park. lol
***
But overall it is true that things are unquestionably worse. There is a lot more homeless people on the street and in my neighborhood there have been several reports of phone snatchings. But it's far from the calamity some people think is happening.
My cousin lives in Wburg. Several times these "protesters" have crossed the bridge and passed through creating a problem for the residents. That's something only someone who lives there would know I guess. Not to mention rent prices have fell by AT LEAST 20% during this time.
I'm sure the landlords in these areas are not playing by the book. Renting illegal basements etc. Would they be subject to the same problems as commercial properties if they lets say accepted 25% less rent for the rest of the lease? Supposedly 70% of all small business in NYC did not pay rent during August. How does that work for the property owners?
I live in the area that had the curfew and all sorts of shady outsiders came in and they looked like they were up to no good. I remember seeing a car with smashed in windshield which immediately made me regret lowering my car insurance to bare minimum.Quote:
Originally Posted by OSA
At the end of the day, are any protests convenient for local residents? Inconvenience and attention are basically the point of protests. And just like all protests before this one, things fizzled out pretty quickly. I would occasionally see groups of 2-5 "protesters" at Brooklyn intersections holding signs but even this has disappeared months ago... A small core is still camping out at the park near city hall, group dwindling by the day.
A 5k/mo apartment with 2 months "free" for month 11 and month 12 is about 20%. Month 1-10 and months 13+ are regular price. Sure, this is technically a nearly 20% discount, but almost no one is going to realize this discount unless they move in for exactly 1 year and move out - not to mention that moving is not cheap or easy either.Quote:
Originally Posted by OSA
My gf and several terms asked over and over to get lease renewal discounts and the best they could get is 0% increase (after years of annual increases.) Some people do report getting actual discounts but a lot of buildings would rather deal with vacancies because they know that it is a giant PIA to move and most people are bluffing.
If there are normal apartments for 20% cheaper monthly rent than it used to be, that's news to me. Maybe in some office park Midtown condo. But this is going to be a rare sight. News stories don't tell the whole story about how these "discounts" actually work - they suck and they're not discounts, they are only temporary incentives.
Small residential landlords may very well be under normal mortgages. Bigger ones will be be under commercial mortgages. What allowances big commercial mortgages for residential buildings have, I don't know...
GF and I went to Times Square on Sunday, in part because we never go there and in part because we thought it would be empty.
I would say this is about 1/3rd the normal crowd. A lot less, but also a lot more than I expected to see given all this NYC-is-dead propaganda.
I also notice from how hard it is to find parking and how heavy the traffic is that people are (mostly) back. Street parking is very hard to find (as in normal times), garage prices are about normal, and many garages are filling up. In the past week, I pulled up to half a dozen garages that had no more spaces left.
I would love it if the doomsdayers were right and apartment prices fell. But as far as I can see, it is not a reality, at least not right now.
I would say this is about 1/3rd the normal crowd. A lot less, but also a lot more than I expected to see given all this NYC-is-dead propaganda.
I also notice from how hard it is to find parking and how heavy the traffic is that people are (mostly) back. Street parking is very hard to find (as in normal times), garage prices are about normal, and many garages are filling up. In the past week, I pulled up to half a dozen garages that had no more spaces left.
I would love it if the doomsdayers were right and apartment prices fell. But as far as I can see, it is not a reality, at least not right now.[/QUOTE]
According to a chart in this attached article studio rents in NYC are down 15%.
https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/stat...52525271875584