Should def be a 3 game series.
PLOL im thinking the cubs would be better off playing the mets.
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Should def be a 3 game series.
PLOL im thinking the cubs would be better off playing the mets.
I want to fire on a World Series parlay of Cubs vs Red Sox (+600) but then I realized I would have one team with a shaky closer and another with a cursed past in a parlay, and I decided to go against it.
Toronto to win the AL is at +475, and the WS at +1000, however intrigues me.
well the world series is not going to involve baltimore or toronto. tillman and stroman are starting pitchers .... yikes..
Oi, I meant TexasQuote:
Originally Posted by Hockey Guy
Okay, what am I missing here. How does the winner of the wildcard game not play the team with the best record & #1 seed in the AL which would be Texas? I thought Boston-Cleveland was set no matter what.Quote:
Originally Posted by PLOL
Well, we had up to O's +154 going into extra innings. No tears.
Just saw Giants -120. BetOnline was first to open @ +106 Sunday and I BAP
Over 6 +105 intrigues me.
Mets saying they beat Kershaw last year so they're not worried.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Is that the best line you've heard all day Sanlmar? Ride Madbum all the way to the bank today. He lives for the playoffs and turns it up 10 gears.
How do you compare Kershaw in the playoffs to Madbum?
I love the over 6 at any plus price but not any minus and not 6.5 at all. Sounds stupid if you like 6 that 6.5 should be ok but I like the idea of being able to get a push on a plus price if neededQuote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Don't love the over 6 unless the Mets can knock out Bumgarner.
Could easily be a 1-0, 2-1 or 3-2 game
I think 3-2 is a really good guess on this game...id only bet the over at a plus price and the only place right now of the big 3 I see that has +105 is carbon. Bovada and betonline are both even as of 11am PST
Bumgarner goes the distance even if he gives up a few. No bullpen
Hopefully Giants run on Thor.
I see a bunch of unders @ 6 -125 thus I hope we test over 5.5 -115 (I don't have Heritage). Otherwise I'll pass.
One guy wins in playoffs.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
He's a little older now. His fastball is 91. He knows how to pitch. What to throw when and all that.
Kershaw going hard and long will be interesting. I just can't believe he's 100%. Would Kershaw shoot up?
Any fade of Dodgers will have to do with offense. But Nats are kinda the same in that dept I think. I can't pull the trigger. It's one thing to try to pick a winner and another to find a good line. I'll hope for more Dodgers/Kershaw blind luvin' over 150 and fade it prolly.
Was considering under for this game but 6 is pretty damn low, and I was too sick to do any analysis on it. (Still am, but can't sleep anymore.)
Looks like under was right.
I am rooting for the Mets, even though they beat the Dodgers last year in the NLDS. They won't face the Dodgers in the first round anyway.
Still annoyed that the Dodgers let the Giants in by getting swept. in the final series.
LOL Pence
Good clutch hitting, buddy.
http://mlb.mlb.com/images/9/7/0/9689...r_sdvbc73e.gif
These umps are terrible for both teams. Home plate ump has missed numerous pitches.
To continue Simp's Kershaw Bumgarner question...
Innings count for a lot and on no planet does Kershaw do this in playoffs
this ump legit misses every low strike
Ump has been terrible.
I somewhat blame the Dodgers for the Giants going to the NLDS. They shouldn't have allowed themselves to get swept at the end of the season.
They will probably get destroyed by the Cubs anyway, but it's the postseason, and the Cubs don't exactly have a stellar record there, so you never know.
Catcher didn't help the umpire
Sawks have a kid Vasquez, for example, that is god framing pitches.
You'll see him soon
Well Game 2 of the NLDS is Saturday (three days rest) and Game 5 is Thursday (normal rest) so you can bet your ass MadBum is going twice.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Cueto
Bum
Samardzija
Cueto
Bum
Kill me now.
Don't forget Offense Henry. Giants don't have one.
Or a bullpen.
Anyone else regret not taking 22 to 1 on the Giants before tonight?
Biggest bet of 2016 tonight and MadBum delivered.
Sanlmar I can't say it enough. Tried preaching to buddies at the bar watching the game. Bumgarner has to be the best post season player ever. He brings it up 1000 notches and just doesn't lose.
He pretty much guarantees you 2 wins a series.
There was a particular at bat with a runner on 2nd 2 outs and pence at the plate. in the first 5 pitches thrown he got 2 right and missed the strike 3 call running the count full instead before pence grounded outQuote:
Originally Posted by Erin Micunt
Yes, couldn't agree more.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
On the other side of the game Posey was his usual awesome self. He led the league in pitch framing this year with 28 runs saved, shedding something like .2 runs a game defensively and that's before you factor in how he calls a game and handles a staff. Pitch framing is the main reason he was worth 7.6 bWAR this year, the third most valuable player in baseball behind Kris Bryant and Mike Trout.
He and Yasmani Grandal (27 runs saved) are in a league of their own. That's three wins on pitch framing alone they provided for their teams. BP had Grandal at 6.7 WAR, a top ten position player in all of baseball.
It definitely matters.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php
I want to see Giants vs Dodgers for the pennant. Kershaw vs Bumgarner for 3 games.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I was thinking about the Dodgers vs Nats. Something just hit me. It's 2:30am so I can't flesh this out.
Some background for Henry. I got this recurring Dodgers Red Sox rap that basically says, big money teams' worst opponent is themselves.
Molly Knight wrote "The Best Team Money Can Buy" a book about the Dodgers. Before that I read a piece by her for ESPN.
Central to the piece was the idea that in a post-Moneyball (Michael Lewis my favorite) world, injury risk assessment is the final frontier.
So the Dodgers hire this guy Conte who is at the forefront of a Sabremetric attempt to analyze injury risk etc.
Zaidi & Friedman don't really know how to play in the first level market. They want to screw around with math & value.
So they take what they think is a measured risk with many players who have a history of injury. Boom! Druff is writing posts lamenting Dodgers injuries this year (and their winning despite this.) Variance lulz
Maybe not.
Anyway, my guess is no team has devoted more resources to the injury question and the results are very Dodger-like.
I can now sleep peacefully.
Decent start Jay's.
Best revenge they could ask for.
Cleveland with the numerous solo shots and won 5-4.
Sox need to rebound in Game 2.
Is this The Official MLB World Series Thread??
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rZEWUCzaDE
If so..... Bow to the Best Ever!!
BTW Dusty gets his first Championship!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1rZEWUCzaDE
Stay Tuned
Quote:
Originally Posted by badguy23
RAZZZZOORRRRRRRRRRR RRAMMMMMMMMMOONNNNNNNNNNEEEEEEEEEEEE
My thoughts are the variance broke negatively for the Dodgers this year.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanlmar
Check out this chart with the projected FIPs of Ryu, McCarthy, Anderson. There's no doubt when these guys are on the field they're effective.
http://i.imgur.com/rDrDy79.png
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-...otations-1-15/
Preseason, they were projected to have the 2nd best staff in the league (actual 4th). They had 9 starters projected to add a half win+ to the team (three more than any other team). Druff wasn't calling Brett Anderson a failpitcher in 2015 after the Dodgers signed him to 1yr/10mil coming off major back surgery and he proceeded to give them 31 highly effective starts.
The Rays can't risk paying an injured pitcher money, even if they recognize he's undervalued on the market, but the Dodgers can. The depth is a whole separate thing from the injured FA thing and the depth thing paid off (again).
Random thoughts:
- Since 2000 the Cardinals have won 52% of their postseason games (65-60). The value of getting into the playoffs every year.Quote:
Originally Posted by Henry
- Red Sox go from around 60% series favorites to about 40% with the loss. Their WS odds went from 18% to 11%.
Best pitching matchup all MLB playoffs is in the NLDS.
Can't get any better then Dodgers Keisha's against 20G winner and nearly 300Ks from Max Scherzer. Hopefully these guys will match up twice in this series. This clearly will likely be the best pitching head to head matchup we will see this October.
These fuckers are blind.Quote:
Originally Posted by simpdog
btw, I've got an original authenticated non Chinese, signed and DNA confirmed Jose Bautista jersey for sale
http://youtu.be/cFpKzNyddA0
Who would've thought there would be 7 runs in a Kershaw-Scherzer matchup in the 4th?
Keep in mind that the O/U for the game was 6!
Kershaw looking awful today, just has no command at all.
Scherzer looking better than Kershaw, but he's made a few dumb pitches (most notably that bad curveball to Justin Turner, smacked for a 2-run HR), so Dodgers are barely up 4-3 after taking a 4-0 lead.
I know Kershaw has a big ego and it's hard to take him out and piss him off (or make him doubt himself for the rest of the playoffs), but if the Dodgers don't get him out soon, they will lose.
This year's bullpen is good, so it's not like other years where they had to fear a fail bullpen blowing the game.
I don't think this is just Kershaw having postseason issues. I think he isn't fully healthy.
The FS1 announcers are awful, blaming Kershaw's lack of command on Grandal. Come on.
Funny how Andrew Toles was working in a grocery store a year ago, and now he's in the MLB playoffs.
That's the sort of story you would have heard 50-100 years ago, but not in 2016. You have to really be resigned to your baseball career being absolutely dead if you're working in a grocery store.
Toles with two good rips already today, one of which fell for a hit.
Utley brings a great intensity and baseball smarts to the game, and he can still hit, but boy has his defense been bad today.
That's the last thing you want when the pitcher isn't on his game.
Scherzer is looking really good now. Dodgers better get Kershaw out of there and hope they can contain the Nationals for the rest of the game.
Ever since Turner's HR, Scherzer became himself again. Seems like he had the postseason jitters up to that point, but I don't think he's giving up much now.
Sawks getting manhandled by Cleveland.
How weird would an Indians/Cubs World Series be?
Justin Turner had just 2 AB as a reserve in the 2014 postseason, and went 0-for-2.
Since then (2015/2016), he's just 12-for-21 with 6 doubles and a HR.
Wow.
Given Utley's LOL .154 average against lefties, I would have taken him out with 2 out, 2 on in the 7th, given the Dodgers' 1-run lead. It's not like you need him for his defense.
Put in a righty PH who at least has a chance, even if that causes the Nats to put in a right handed pitcher to face him.
This just seemed like an automatic out. I mean, they even walked Puig just to get to him, and it was the correct move.
I think sometimes managers go overboard with switches due to left/right matchup, sometimes taking out a hot pitcher or hitter just because of the matchup, but in this case it was warranted.
9 outs left. Hopefully Dodgers hold on. I knew they wouldn't be getting any more offense once Scherzer settled down, though they might tack on a little bit more against the bullpen.